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Clinical Prediction Models
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TLDR
This paper presents a case study on survival analysis: Prediction of secondary cardiovascular events and lessons from case studies on overfitting and optimism in prediction models.Abstract:
Introduction.- Applications of prediction models.- Study design for prediction models.- Statistical models for prediction.- Overfitting and optimism in prediction models.- Choosing between alternative statistical models.- Dealing with missing values.- Case study on dealing with missing values.- Coding of categorical and continuous predictors.- Restrictions on candidate predictors.- Selection of main effects.- Assumptions in regression models: Additivity and linearity.- Modern estimation methods.- Estimation with external methods.- Evaluation of performance.- Clinical usefulness.- Validation of prediction models.- Presentation formats.- Patterns of external validity.- Updating for a new setting.- Updating for a multiple settings.- Prediction of a binary outcome: 30-day mortality after acute myocardial infarction.- Case study on survival analysis: Prediction of secondary cardiovascular events.- Lessons from case studies.read more
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Journal ArticleDOI
Factors associated with frailty in primary care: a prospective cohort study.
Ana Diez-Ruiz,Antonio Bueno-Errandonea,Jazmina Nuñez-Barrio,Inmaculada Sanchez-Martín,Kalliopi Vrotsou,Itziar Vergara +5 more
TL;DR: Given the simplicity of assessing the three derived factors and their combined discriminant power, the proposed model may be considered a suitable tool for identifying frail patients, i.e., people more likely to lose their independence or die within a relatively short time interval.
Journal ArticleDOI
Graphical assessment of incremental value of novel markers in prediction models : From statistical to decision analytical perspectives
Ewout W. Steyerberg,Moniek M. Vedder,Maarten J.G. Leening,Douwe Postmus,Ralph B. D'Agostino,Ben Van Calster,Ben Van Calster,Michael J. Pencina +7 more
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors reviewed options for graphical display and summary measures to assess the predictive value of markers over standard, readily available predictors, and illustrated various approaches using previously published data on 3264 participants from the Framingham Heart Study, where 183 developed coronary heart disease (10-year risk 5.6%).
Journal ArticleDOI
Re-evaluating and recalibrating predictors of bacterial infection in children with cancer and febrile neutropenia
Gabrielle M Haeusler,Robert S. Phillips,Robert S. Phillips,Monica A. Slavin,Franz E Babl,Franz E Babl,Richard De Abreu Lourenco,Francoise Mechinaud,Karin A Thursky +8 more
TL;DR: Recalibration of existing CDRs is a novel way to improve diagnostic performance of CDRs and maintain relevance over time and degree of marrow suppression, features of inflammation and clinical judgement have been consistently shown to predict infection in children with FN.
Journal ArticleDOI
A prediction model to calculate probability of Alzheimer's disease using cerebrospinal fluid biomarkers
Petra E. Spies,Petra E. Spies,Jurgen A.H.R. Claassen,Jurgen A.H.R. Claassen,Petronella G. M. Peer,Marinus A. Blankenstein,Charlotte E. Teunissen,Philip Scheltens,Wiesje M. van der Flier,Marcel G. M. Olde Rikkert,Marcel G. M. Olde Rikkert,Marcel M. Verbeek +11 more
TL;DR: A prediction model based on cerebrospinal fluid biomarkers would yield a single estimate representing the probability that dementia in a memory clinic patient is due to Alzheimer's disease (AD).
Journal ArticleDOI
Predictors of multidrug-resistant Pseudomonas aeruginosa in neutropenic patients with bloodstream infection
Diego Viasus,Pedro Puerta-Alcalde,Celia Cardozo,María Suárez-Lledó,Olga Rodríguez-Núñez,Laura Morata,Csaba Fehér,Francesc Marco,Mariana Chumbita,Estela Moreno-García,Francesc Fernández-Avilés,Gonzalo Gutiérrez-García,J A Martínez,Josep Mensa,M Rovira,Jordi Esteve,A. Soriano,Carolina Garcia-Vidal +17 more
TL;DR: A simple score based on demographic and clinical factors allows stratification of bacteremic patients according to their risk of MDR-PA BSI, and may help facilitate the use of rapid M DR-detection tools and improve early antibiotic appropriateness.