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Clinical Prediction Models
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TLDR
This paper presents a case study on survival analysis: Prediction of secondary cardiovascular events and lessons from case studies on overfitting and optimism in prediction models.Abstract:
Introduction.- Applications of prediction models.- Study design for prediction models.- Statistical models for prediction.- Overfitting and optimism in prediction models.- Choosing between alternative statistical models.- Dealing with missing values.- Case study on dealing with missing values.- Coding of categorical and continuous predictors.- Restrictions on candidate predictors.- Selection of main effects.- Assumptions in regression models: Additivity and linearity.- Modern estimation methods.- Estimation with external methods.- Evaluation of performance.- Clinical usefulness.- Validation of prediction models.- Presentation formats.- Patterns of external validity.- Updating for a new setting.- Updating for a multiple settings.- Prediction of a binary outcome: 30-day mortality after acute myocardial infarction.- Case study on survival analysis: Prediction of secondary cardiovascular events.- Lessons from case studies.read more
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Journal ArticleDOI
Personalizing Survival Predictions in Advanced Colorectal Cancer: The ARCAD Nomogram Project.
Katrin Marie Sjoquist,Katrin Marie Sjoquist,Lindsay A. Renfro,R. John Simes,Niall C. Tebbutt,Stephen Clarke,Matthew T. Seymour,Richard Adams,Tim Maughan,Leonard B. Saltz,Richard M. Goldberg,Hans-Joachim Schmoll,Eric Van Cutsem,Jean-Yves Douillard,Paulo M. Hoff,J. R. Hecht,Christophe Tournigand,Cornelis J. A. Punt,Miriam Koopman,Herbert Hurwitz,Volker Heinemann,Alfredo Falcone,Rainer Porschen,Charles S. Fuchs,Eduardo Díaz-Rubio,Enrique Aranda,Carsten Bokemeyer,Ioannis Souglakos,Fairooz F. Kabbinavar,Benoist Chibaudel,Jeffrey P. Meyers,Daniel J. Sargent,Aimery de Gramont,John Zalcberg +33 more
TL;DR: Estimating prognosis on the basis of clinicopathologic factors can inform clinical practice and improve risk stratification for clinical trials and prognostic nomograms have the potential to aid prognostication and patient-physician communication and balance risk in colorectal cancer trials.
Journal ArticleDOI
Features of Adenoma and Colonoscopy Associated With Recurrent Colorectal Neoplasia Based on a Large Community-Based Study
Else-Mariëtte B. van Heijningen,Iris Lansdorp – Vogelaar,Ernst J. Kuipers,Evelien Dekker,W. Lesterhuis,W. Lesterhuis,Frank ter Borg,Juda Vecht,Vincent de Jonge,Pieter Spoelstra,Leopold G.J.B. Engels,Clemens J.M. Bolwerk,Robin Timmer,Jan H. Kleibeuker,Jan J. Koornstra,Marjolein van Ballegooijen,Ewout W. Steyerberg +16 more
TL;DR: Large size and number, villous histology, proximal location of adenomas, insufficient bowel preparation, and poor colonoscopy reach were associated with detection of AA during surveillance based on data from community-based surveillance practice.
Journal ArticleDOI
Identification of Emergency Department Patients With Acute Heart Failure at Low Risk for 30-Day Adverse Events : The STRATIFY Decision Tool
Sean P. Collins,Sean P. Collins,Cathy A. Jenkins,Frank E. Harrell,Dandan Liu,Karen F. Miller,Christopher J. Lindsell,Allen J. Naftilan,John A. McPherson,David J. Maron,Douglas B. Sawyer,Neal L. Weintraub,Gregory J. Fermann,Susan K. Roll,Matthew Sperling,Alan B. Storrow +15 more
TL;DR: The STRATIFY decision tool identifies emergency department patients with acute heart failure who are at low risk for 30-day adverse events and may be candidates for safe ED discharge and may significantly affect disposition strategies.
Journal ArticleDOI
A simulation study of sample size demonstrated the importance of the number of events per variable to develop prediction models in clustered data
Laure Wynants,Walter Bouwmeester,K. G. M. Moons,Mirjam Moerbeek,Dirk Timmerman,S. Van Huffel,B. Van Calster,B. Van Calster,Yvonne Vergouwe +8 more
TL;DR: The amount of clustering was not meaningfully associated with the models' predictive performance, and backward variable selection had little influence on the model's performance in the authors' simulations.
Journal ArticleDOI
A systematic review and quality assessment of individualised breast cancer risk prediction models
Javier Louro,Margarita Posso,Michele Hilton Boon,Marta Román,Laia Domingo,Xavier Castells,Maria Sala +6 more
TL;DR: Individualised risk prediction models are promising tools for implementing risk-based screening policies, however, it is a challenge to recommend any of them since they need further improvement in their quality and discriminatory capacity.