Dismissing return periods
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TLDR
It is shown that the concepts of probability of exceedance and risk of failure over a given design life period provide more coherent, general and well devised tools for risk assessment and communication.Abstract:
The concept of return period in stationary univariate frequency analysis is prone to misconceptions and misuses that are well known but still widespread. In this study we highlight how nonstationary and multivariate extensions of such a concept are affected by additional misconceptions, thus easily resulting in further ill-posed procedures and misleading conclusions. We also show that the concepts of probability of exceedance and risk of failure over a given design life period provide more coherent, general and well devised tools for risk assessment and communication.read more
Citations
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Dependence of drivers affects risks associated with compound events.
TL;DR: It is concluded that a multivariate perspective is necessary to appropriately assess changes in climate extremes and their impacts and to design adaptation strategies.
Dependence of drivers affects risks associated with compound events
TL;DR: This article analyzed the co-occurrence of hot and dry summers and showed that these are correlated, inducing a much higher frequency of concurrent hot and cold summers than what would be assumed from the independent combination of the univariate statistics.
Journal ArticleDOI
Stationarity is undead: Uncertainty dominates the distribution of extremes
Francesco Serinaldi,Chris Kilsby +1 more
TL;DR: The results show that nonstationary frequency analyses should not only be based on at-site time series but require additional information and detailed exploratory data analyses (EDA), and stationary models should be retained as more theoretically coherent and reliable options for practical applications in real-world design and management problems.
Journal ArticleDOI
Compounding effects of sea level rise and fluvial flooding
TL;DR: A bivariate flood hazard assessment approach is proposed that accounts for compound flooding from river flow and coastal water level, and it is shown that a univariate approach may not appropriately characterize the flood hazard if there are compounding effects.
Journal ArticleDOI
North American extreme temperature events and related large scale meteorological patterns: a review of statistical methods, dynamics, modeling, and trends
Richard Grotjahn,Robert X. Black,Ruby Leung,Michael Wehner,Mathew Barlow,Michael G. Bosilovich,Alexander Gershunov,William J. Gutowski,John R. Gyakum,Richard W. Katz,Yun-Young Lee,Young-Kwon Lim,Prabhat +12 more
TL;DR: The current state of knowledge regarding large-scale meteorological patterns (LSMPs) associated with short-duration (less than 1-week) extreme precipitation events over North America is surveyed in this article.
References
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