Showing papers in "Climate Dynamics in 2016"

Global semi-arid climate change over last 60 years

Abstract: This study analyzes areal changes and regional climate variations in global semi-arid regions over 61 years (1948–2008) and investigates the dynamics of global semi-arid climate change. The results reveal that the largest expansion of drylands has occurred in semi-arid regions since the early 1960s. This expansion of semi-arid regions accounts for more than half of the total dryland expansion. The area of semi-arid regions in the most recent 15 years studied (1990–2004) is 7 % larger than that during the first 15 years (1948–1962) of the study period; this expansion totaled 0.4 × 106 and 1.2 × 106 km2 within the American continents and in the Eastern Hemisphere, respectively. Although semi-arid expansion occurred in both regions, the shifting patterns of the expansion are different. Across the American continents, the newly formed semi-arid regions developed from arid regions, in which the climate became wetter. Conversely, in the continental Eastern Hemisphere, semi-arid regions replaced sub-humid/humid regions, in which the climate became drier. The climate change in drying semi-arid regions over East Asia is primarily dominated by a weakened East Asian summer monsoon, while the wetting of semi-arid regions over North America is primarily controlled by enhanced westerlies.

North American extreme temperature events and related large scale meteorological patterns: a review of statistical methods, dynamics, modeling, and trends

Abstract: This paper surveys the current state of knowledge regarding large-scale meteorological patterns (LSMPs) associated with short-duration (less than 1 week) extreme precipitation events over North America. In contrast to teleconnections, which are typically defined based on the characteristic spatial variations of a meteorological field or on the remote circulation response to a known forcing, LSMPs are defined relative to the occurrence of a specific phenomenon—here, extreme precipitation—and with an emphasis on the synoptic scales that have a primary influence in individual events, have medium-range weather predictability, and are well-resolved in both weather and climate models. For the LSMP relationship with extreme precipitation, we consider the previous literature with respect to definitions and data, dynamical mechanisms, model representation, and climate change trends. There is considerable uncertainty in identifying extremes based on existing observational precipitation data and some limitations in analyzing the associated LSMPs in reanalysis data. Many different definitions of “extreme” are in use, making it difficult to directly compare different studies. Dynamically, several types of meteorological systems—extratropical cyclones, tropical cyclones, mesoscale convective systems, and mesohighs—and several mechanisms—fronts, atmospheric rivers, and orographic ascent—have been shown to be important aspects of extreme precipitation LSMPs. The extreme precipitation is often realized through mesoscale processes organized, enhanced, or triggered by the LSMP. Understanding of model representation, trends, and projections for LSMPs is at an early stage, although some promising analysis techniques have been identified and the LSMP perspective is useful for evaluating the model dynamics associated with extremes.

The 2014 southeast Brazil austral summer drought: regional scale mechanisms and teleconnections

Abstract: The southeast region of Brazil experienced in austral summer 2014 a major drought event leading to a number of impacts in water availability for human consumption, agricultural irrigation and hydropower production This study aims to perform a diagnostic analysis of the observed climate conditions during this event, including an inspection of the occurred precipitation anomalies in the context of previous years, and an investigation of possible relationships with sea surface temperatures and atmospheric circulation patterns The sea surface temperature analysis revealed that the southwestern South Atlantic Ocean region near the coast of southeast Brazil showed strong negative association with precipitation over southeast Brazil, indicating that increased sea temperatures in this ocean region are consistent with reduced precipitation as observed in summer 2014 The circulation analysis revealed prevailing anti-cyclonic anomalies at lower levels (850 hPa) with northerly anomalies to the west of southeast Brazil, channeling moisture from the Amazon towards Paraguay, northern Argentina and southern Brazil, and drier than normal air from the South Atlantic Ocean towards the southeast region of Brazil This circulation pattern was found to be part of a large-scale teleconnection wave train linked with the subsidence branch of the Walker circulation in the tropical east Pacific, which in turn was generated by an anomalous tropical heat source in north/northeastern Australia A regional Hadley circulation with an ascending branch to the south of the subsidence branch of the Walker circulation in the tropical east Pacific was identified as an important component connecting the tropical and extratropical circulation The ascending branch of this Hadley circulation in the south Pacific coincided with an identified Rossby wave source region, which contributed to establishing the extratropical component of the large-scale wave train connecting the south Pacific and the Atlantic region surrounding southeast Brazil This connection between the Pacific and the Atlantic was confirmed with Rossby ray tracing analyses The local circulation response was associated to downward air motion (subsidence) over Southeast Brazil, contributing to the expressive negative precipitation anomalies observed during summer 2014, and leading to a major drought event in the historical context The analysis of atmospheric and oceanic patterns of this event helped defining a schematic framework leading to the observed drought conditions in southeast Brazil, including the involved teleconnections, blocking high pressure, radiative and humidity transport effects

Projections of extreme storm surge levels along Europe

Abstract: Storm surges are an important coastal hazard component and it is unknown how they will evolve along Europe’s coastline in view of climate change. In the present contribution, the hydrodynamic model Delft3D-Flow was forced by surface wind and atmospheric pressure fields from a 8-member climate model ensemble in order to evaluate dynamics in storm surge levels (SSL) along the European coastline (1) for the baseline period 1970–2000; and (2) during this century under the Representative Concentration Pathways RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Validation simulations, spanning from 2008 to 2014 and driven by ERA-Interim atmospheric forcing, indicated good predictive skill (0.06 m < RMSE < 0.29 m and 10 % < RMSE < 29 % for 110 tidal gauge stations across Europe). Peak-over-threshold extreme value analysis was applied to estimate SSL values for different return periods, and changes of future SSL were obtained from all models to obtain the final ensemble. Values for most scenarios and return periods indicate a projected increase in SSL at several locations along the North European coastline, which is more prominent for RCP8.5 and shows an increasing tendency towards the end of the century for both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Projected SSL changes along the European coastal areas south of 50°N show minimal change or even a small decrease, with the exception of RCP8.5 under which a moderate increase is projected towards the end of the century. The present findings indicate that the anticipated increase in extreme total water levels due to relative sea level rise (RSLR), can be further enforced by an increase of the extreme SSL, which can exceed 30 % of the RSLR, especially for the high return periods and pathway RCP8.5. This implies that the combined effect could increase even further anticipated impacts of climate change for certain European areas and highlights the necessity for timely coastal adaptation and protection measures. The dataset is publicly available under this link: http://data.jrc.ec.europa.eu/collection/LISCOAST .

Precipitation in the EURO-CORDEX 0.11° and 0.44° simulations: high resolution, high benefits?

Abstract: In the framework of the EURO-CORDEX initiative an ensemble of European-wide high-resolution regional climate simulations on a $$0.11^{\circ }\,({\sim}12.5\,\hbox {km})$$ grid has been generated. This study investigates whether the fine-gridded regional climate models are found to add value to the simulated mean and extreme daily and sub-daily precipitation compared to their coarser-gridded $$0.44^{\circ }\,({\sim}50\,\hbox {km})$$ counterparts. Therefore, pairs of fine- and coarse-gridded simulations of eight reanalysis-driven models are compared to fine-gridded observations in the Alps, Germany, Sweden, Norway, France, the Carpathians, and Spain. A clear result is that the $$0.11^{\circ }$$ simulations are found to better reproduce mean and extreme precipitation for almost all regions and seasons, even on the scale of the coarser-gridded simulations (50 km). This is primarily caused by the improved representation of orography in the $$0.11^{\circ }$$ simulations and therefore largest improvements can be found in regions with substantial orographic features. Improvements in reproducing precipitation in the summer season appear also due to the fact that in the fine-gridded simulations the larger scales of convection are captured by the resolved-scale dynamics . The $$0.11^{\circ }$$ simulations reduce biases in large areas of the investigated regions, have an improved representation of spatial precipitation patterns, and precipitation distributions are improved for daily and in particular for 3 hourly precipitation sums in Switzerland. When the evaluation is conducted on the fine (12.5 km) grid, the added value of the $$0.11^{\circ }$$ models becomes even more obvious.

Deciphering the desiccation trend of the South Asian monsoon hydroclimate in a warming world

Abstract: Rising propensity of precipitation extremes and concomitant decline of summer-monsoon rains are amongst the most distinctive hydroclimatic signals that have emerged over South Asia since 1950s. A clear understanding of the underlying causes driving these monsoon hydroclimatic signals has remained elusive. Using a state-of-the-art global climate model with high-resolution zooming over South Asia, we demonstrate that a juxtaposition of regional land-use changes, anthropogenic-aerosol forcing and the rapid warming signal of the equatorial Indian Ocean is crucial to produce the observed monsoon weakening in recent decades. Our findings also show that this monsoonal weakening significantly enhances occurrence of localized intense precipitation events, as compared to the global-warming response. A 21st century climate projection using the same high-resolution model indicates persistent decrease of monsoonal rains and prolongation of soil drying. Critical value-additions from this study include (1) realistic simulation of the mean and long-term historical trends in the Indian monsoon rainfall (2) robust attributions of changes in moderate and heavy precipitation events over Central India (3) a 21st century projection of drying trend of the South Asian monsoon. The present findings have profound bearing on the regional water-security, which is already under severe hydrological-stress.

Irreducible uncertainty in near-term climate projections

Abstract: Model simulations of the next few decades are widely used in assessments of climate change impacts and as guidance for adaptation. Their non-linear nature reveals a level of irreducible uncertainty which it is important to understand and quantify, especially for projections of near-term regional climate. Here we use large idealised initial condition ensembles of the FAMOUS global climate model with a 1 %/ year compound increase in CO2 levels to quantify the range of future temperatures in model-based projections. These simulations explore the role of both atmospheric and oceanic initial conditions and are the largest such ensembles to date. Short-term simulated trends in global temperature are diverse, and cooling periods are more likely to be followed by larger warming rates. The spatial pattern of near-term temperature change varies considerably, but the proportion of the surface showing a warming is more consistent. In addition, ensemble spread in inter-annual temperature declines as the climate warms, especially in the North Atlantic. Over Europe, atmospheric initial condition uncertainty can, for certain ocean initial conditions, lead to 20 year trends in winter and summer in which every location can exhibit either strong cooling or rapid warming. However, the details of the distribution are highly sensitive to the ocean initial condition chosen and particularly the state of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. On longer timescales, the warming signal becomes more clear and consistent amongst different initial condition ensembles. An ensemble using a range of different oceanic initial conditions produces a larger spread in temperature trends than ensembles using a single ocean initial condition for all lead times. This highlights the potential benefits from initialising climate predictions from ocean states informed by observations. These results suggest that climate projections need to be performed with many more ensemble members than at present, using a range of ocean initial conditions, if the uncertainty in nearterm regional climate is to be adequately quantified.

Climate change projections for CORDEX-Africa with COSMO-CLM regional climate model and differences with the driving global climate models

Abstract: In the framework of the coordinated regional climate downscaling experiment (CORDEX), an ensemble of climate change projections for Africa has been created by downscaling the simulations of four global climate models (GCMs) by means of the consortium for small-scale modeling (COSMO) regional climate model (RCM) (COSMO-CLM, hereafter, CCLM). Differences between the projected temperature and precipitation simulated by CCLM and the driving GCMs are analyzed and discussed. The projected increase of seasonal temperature is found to be relatively similar between GCMs and RCM, although large differences (more than 1 °C) exist locally. Differences are also found for extreme-event related quantities, such as the spread of the upper end of the maximum temperature probability distribution function and, in turn, the duration of heat waves. Larger uncertainties are found in the future precipitation changes; this is partly a consequence of the inter-model (GCMs) variability over some areas (e.g. Sahel). However, over other regions (e.g. Central Africa) the rainfall trends simulated by CCLM and the GCMs show opposite signs, with CCLM showing a significant reduction in precipitation at the end of the century. This uncertain and sometimes contrasting behaviour is further investigated by analyzing the different models’ response to the land–atmosphere interaction and feedback. Given the large uncertainty associated with inter-model variability across GCMs and the reduced spread in the results when a single RCM is used for downscaling, we strongly emphasize the importance of exploiting fully the CORDEX-Africa multi-GCM/multi-RCM ensemble in order to assess the robustness of the climate change signal and, possibly, to identify and quantify the many sources of uncertainty that still remain.

Synoptic-scale characteristics and atmospheric controls of summer heat waves in China

Abstract: Summer heat waves with persistent extreme high temperatures have been occurring with increasing frequency in recent decades. These extreme events have disastrous consequences for human health, economies, and ecosystems. In this study, we examine three summers with intense and protracted heat waves: the summers of 2003, 2006, and 2013, with high temperatures located mainly in southeastern, southwestern, and eastern China, respectively. The synoptic-scale characteristics of these heat waves and associated atmospheric circulation anomalies are investigated. In the early heat wave episode of 2003, a heat center was located in the southeast coastal provinces during the first 20 days of July. The maximum southward displacement of the East Asian jet stream (EAJS) induced anticyclonic anomalies to the south, associated with southwestward intensification of the western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH), and extreme high temperatures were found only to the south of the Yangtze River. In the later episode, a poleward displacement of the EAJS and an enhanced WNPSH over the midlatitudes of eastern China resulted in a “heat dome” over the region, and the heat wave extended northward to cover a larger area of eastern China. The coupling between the westward-enhanced WNPSH and poleward-displaced EAJS was found in the East China heat wave of 2013 as well. But the area of high temperatures reached far to the north in August 2013, with below-normal temperatures located in a small region of South China. In the 2006 southwestern drought and heat wave, extreme poleward displacement of the EAJS, associated with extraordinary westward extension of the WNSPH, resulted in further blocking of the moisture supply from the southwest monsoon. Large-scale moisture deficiencies, dry conditions, and downslope winds were common features of all investigated heat wave episodes. But in 2006, low-level heat lows associated with a well-mixed layer due to intensive daytime heating and atmospheric turbulence were emphasized.

Effects of tropical North Atlantic SST on tropical cyclone genesis in the western North Pacific

Abstract: The tropical cyclone genesis number (TCGN) in July–October (JASO) over the western North Pacific (WNP) exhibits a robust interannual variation. It shows a longitudinally tri-pole pattern with a high in the eastern WNP and South China Sea (SCS) and a low in the western WNP, which explain 42.2 and 23.4 % of total TCGN variance in the eastern WNP and SCS, respectively. The high–low–high pattern is similar to that derived from a TC genesis potential index (GPI). To understand the cause of the longitudinal distribution of the dominant interannual mode, we examine the contributions of environmental parameters associated with GPI. It is found that relative humidity and relative vorticity are important factors responsible for TC variability in the SCS, while vertical shear and relative vorticity are crucial in determining TC activity in eastern WNP. A simultaneous correlation analysis shows that the WNP TCGN in JASO is significantly negatively correlated (with a correlation coefficient of −0.5) with sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) in the tropical North Atlantic (TNA). The longitudinal distribution of TC genesis frequency regressed onto TNA SSTA resembles that regressed upon the WNP TCGN series. The spatial patterns of regressed environmental variables onto the SSTA over the TNA also resemble those onto TCGN in the WNP, that is, an increase of relative humidity in the SCS and a weakening of vertical shear in the eastern WNP are all associated with cold SSTA in the TNA. Further analyses show that the cold SSTA in the TNA induce a negative heating in situ. In response to this negative heating, a low (upper)-level anomalous aniti-cyclonic (cyclonic) flows appear over the subtropical North Atlantic and eastern North Pacific, and to east of the cold SSTA, anomalous low-level westerlies appear in the tropical Indian Ocean. Given pronounced mean westerlies in northern Indian Ocean in boreal summer, the anomalous westerly flows increase local surface wind speed and surface evaporation and cool the SST in situ. Cold SSTA in northern Indian Ocean further suppress local convection, inducing anomalous westerlies to its east, leading to enhanced cyclonic vorticity and low surface pressure over the WNP monsoon trough region. Idealized numerical experiments further confirm this Indian Ocean relaying effect, through which cold SSTA in the tropical Atlantic exert a remote impact to circulation in the WNP.

Evaluation of multiple regional climate models for summer climate extremes over East Asia

Abstract: In this study, five regional climate models (RCMs) participating in the CORDEX-East Asia project (HadGEM3-RA, RegCM4, SNU-MM5, SNU-WRF, and YSU-RSM) are evaluated in terms of their performances in simulating the climatology of summer extremes in East Asia. Seasonal maxima of daily mean temperature and precipitation are analyzed using the generalized extreme value method. RCMs show systematic bias patterns in both seasonal means and extremes. A cold bias is located along the coast, whereas a warm bias occurs in northern China. Overall, wet bias occurs in East Asia, but with a substantial dry bias centered in South Korea. This dry bias appears to be related to the colder ocean surface around South Korea, positioning the monsoonal front further south compared to observations. Taylor diagram analyses reveal that the models simulate temperature means more accurately compared to extremes because of the higher spatial correlation, whereas precipitation extremes are simulated better than their means because of the higher spatial variability. The latter implies that extreme rainfall events can be captured more accurately by RCMs compared to the driving GCM despite poorer simulation of mean rainfall. Inter-RCM analysis indicates a close relationship between the means and extremes in terms of model skills, but it does not show a clear relationship between temperature and precipitation. Sub-regional analysis largely supports the mean–extreme skill relationship. Analyses of frequency and intensity distributions of daily data for three selected sub-regions suggest that overall shifts of temperature distribution and biases in moderate–heavy precipitations contribute importantly to the seasonal mean biases.

Atlantic forcing of Pacific decadal variability

Abstract: This paper investigates the Atlantic Ocean influence on equatorial Pacific decadal variability. Using an ensemble of simulations, where the ICTPAGCM (“SPEEDY”) is coupled to the NEMO/OPA ocean model in the Indo-Pacific region and forced by observed sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic region, it is shown that the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) has had a substantial influence on the equatorial Pacific decadal variability. According to AMO phases we have identified three periods with strong Atlantic forcing of equatorial Pacific changes, namely (1) 1931–1950 minus 1910–1929, (2) 1970–1989 minus 1931–1950 and (3) 1994–2013 minus 1970–1989. Both observations and the model show easterly surface wind anomalies in the central Pacific, cooling in the central-eastern Pacific and warming in the western Pacific/Indian Ocean region in events (1) and (3) and the opposite signals in event (2). The physical mechanism for these responses is related to a modification of the Walker circulation because a positive (negative) AMO leads to an overall warmer (cooler) tropical Atlantic. The warmer (cooler) tropical Atlantic modifies the Walker circulation, leading to rising (sinking) and upper-level divergence (convergence) motion in the Atlantic region and sinking (rising) motion and upper-level convergence (divergence) in the central Pacific region.

Antarctic sea ice increase consistent with intrinsic variability of the Amundsen Sea Low

Abstract: We investigate the relationship between atmospheric circulation variability and the recent trends in Antarctic sea ice extent (SIE) using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) atmospheric data, ECMWF Interim reanalysis fields and passive microwave satellite data processed with the Bootstrap version 2 algorithm. Over 1979–2013 the annual mean total Antarctic SIE increased at a rate of 195 × 103 km2 dec−1 (1.6 % dec−1), p < 0.01. The largest regional positive trend of annual mean SIE of 119 × 103 km2 dec−1 (4.0 % dec−1) has been in the Ross Sea sector. Off West Antarctica there is a high correlation between trends in SIE and trends in the near-surface winds. The Ross Sea SIE seasonal trends are positive throughout the year, but largest in spring. The stronger meridional flow over the Ross Sea has been driven by a deepening of the Amundsen Sea Low (ASL). Pre-industrial control and historical simulations from CMIP5 indicate that the observed deepening of the ASL and stronger southerly flow over the Ross Sea are within the bounds of modeled intrinsic variability. The spring trend would need to continue for another 11 years for it to fall outside the 2 standard deviation range seen in 90 % of the simulations.

Precipitation climatology over India: validation with observations and reanalysis datasets and spatial trends

Abstract: Changing rainfall patterns have significant effect on water resources, agriculture output in many countries, especially the country like India where the economy depends on rain-fed agriculture. Rainfall over India has large spatial as well as temporal variability. To understand the variability in rainfall, spatial–temporal analyses of rainfall have been studied by using 107 (1901–2007) years of daily gridded India Meteorological Department (IMD) rainfall datasets. Further, the validation of IMD precipitation data is carried out with different observational and different reanalysis datasets during the period from 1989 to 2007. The Global Precipitation Climatology Project data shows similar features as that of IMD with high degree of comparison, whereas Asian Precipitation-Highly-Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation data show similar features but with large differences, especially over northwest, west coast and western Himalayas. Spatially, large deviation is observed in the interior peninsula during the monsoon season with National Aeronautics Space Administration-Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (NASA-MERRA), pre-monsoon with Japanese 25 years Re Analysis (JRA-25), and post-monsoon with climate forecast system reanalysis (CFSR) reanalysis datasets. Among the reanalysis datasets, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Interim Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) shows good comparison followed by CFSR, NASA-MERRA, and JRA-25. Further, for the first time, with high resolution and long-term IMD data, the spatial distribution of trends is estimated using robust regression analysis technique on the annual and seasonal rainfall data with respect to different regions of India. Significant positive and negative trends are noticed in the whole time series of data during the monsoon season. The northeast and west coast of the Indian region shows significant positive trends and negative trends over western Himalayas and north central Indian region.

Present-day and future Antarctic ice sheet climate and surface mass balance in the Community Earth System Model

Abstract: We present climate and surface mass balance (SMB) of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) as simulated by the global, coupled ocean–atmosphere–land Community Earth System Model (CESM) with a horizontal resolution of $${\sim }1^\circ$$ in the past, present and future (1850–2100). CESM correctly simulates present-day Antarctic sea ice extent, large-scale atmospheric circulation and near-surface climate, but fails to simulate the recent expansion of Antarctic sea ice. The present-day Antarctic ice sheet SMB equals $$2280 \pm 131$$ $$\mathrm {Gt\,year^{-1}}$$ , which concurs with existing independent estimates of AIS SMB. When forced by two CMIP5 climate change scenarios (high mitigation scenario RCP2.6 and high-emission scenario RCP8.5), CESM projects an increase of Antarctic ice sheet SMB of about 70 $$\mathrm {Gt\,year^{-1}}$$ per degree warming. This increase is driven by enhanced snowfall, which is partially counteracted by more surface melt and runoff along the ice sheet’s edges. This intensifying hydrological cycle is predominantly driven by atmospheric warming, which increases (1) the moisture-carrying capacity of the atmosphere, (2) oceanic source region evaporation, and (3) summer AIS cloud liquid water content.

Intercomparison of statistical and dynamical downscaling models under the EURO- and MED-CORDEX initiative framework: present climate evaluations

Abstract: Given the coarse spatial resolution of General Circulation Models, finer scale projections of variables affected by local-scale processes such as precipitation are often needed to drive impacts models, for example in hydrology or ecology among other fields. This need for high-resolution data leads to apply projection techniques called downscaling. Downscaling can be performed according to two approaches: dynamical and statistical models. The latter approach is constituted by various statistical families conceptually different. If several studies have made some intercomparisons of existing downscaling models, none of them included all those families and approaches in a manner that all the models are equally considered. To this end, the present study conducts an intercomparison exercise under the EURO- and MED-CORDEX initiative hindcast framework. Six Statistical Downscaling Models (SDMs) and five Regional Climate Models (RCMs) are compared in terms of precipitation outputs. The downscaled simulations are driven by the ERAinterim reanalyses over the 1989–2008 period over a common area at 0.44° of resolution. The 11 models are evaluated according to four aspects of the precipitation: occurrence, intensity, as well as spatial and temporal properties. For each aspect, one or several indicators are computed to discriminate the models. The results indicate that marginal properties of rain occurrence and intensity are better modelled by stochastic and resampling-based SDMs, while spatial and temporal variability are better modelled by RCMs and resampling-based SDM. These general conclusions have to be considered with caution because they rely on the chosen indicators and could change when considering other specific criteria. The indicators suit specific purpose and therefore the model evaluation results depend on the end-users point of view and how they intend to use with model outputs. Nevertheless, building on previous intercomparison exercises, this study provides a consistent intercomparison framework, including both SDMs and RCMs, which is designed to be flexible, i.e., other models and indicators can easily be added. More generally, this framework provides a tool to select the downscaling model to be used according to the statistical properties of the local-scale climate data to drive properly specific impact models.

Effects of excessive equatorial cold tongue bias on the projections of tropical Pacific climate change. Part I: the warming pattern in CMIP5 multi-model ensemble

Abstract: The excessive cold tongue error in the equatorial Pacific has persisted in several generations of climate models. Based on the historical simulations and Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 experiments in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) multi-model ensemble (MME), this study finds that models with an excessive westward extension of cold tongue and insufficient equatorial western Pacific precipitation tend to project a weaker east-minus-west gradient of sea surface temperature (SST) warming along the equatorial Pacific under increased greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing. This La Nina-like error of tropical Pacific SST warming is consistent with our understanding of negative SST-convective feedback over the western Pacific warm pool. Based on this relationship between the present simulations and future projections, the present study applies an “observational constraint” of equatorial western Pacific precipitation to calibrate the projections of tropical Pacific climate change. After the corrections, CMIP5 models robustly project an El Nino-like warming pattern, with a MME mean increase by a factor of 2.3 in east-minus-west gradient of equatorial Pacific SST warming and reduced inter-model uncertainty. Corrections in projected changes in tropical precipitation and atmospheric circulation are physically consistent. This study suggests that a realistic cold tongue simulation would lead to a more reliable tropical Pacific climate projection.

Strong and moderate nonlinear El Niño regimes

Abstract: It has been previously proposed that two El Nino (EN) regimes, strong and moderate, exist but the historical observational record is too short to establish this conclusively. Here, 1200 years of simulations with the GFDL CM2.1 model allowed us to demonstrate their existence in this model and, by showing that the relevant dynamics are also evident in observations, we present a stronger case for their existence in nature. In CM2.1, the robust bimodal probability distribution of equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) indices during EN peaks provides evidence for the existence of the regimes, which is also supported by a cluster analysis of these same indices. The observations agree with this distribution, with the EN of 1982–1983 and 1997–1998 corresponding to the strong EN regime and all the other observed EN to the moderate regime. The temporal evolution of various indices during the observed strong EN agrees very well with the events in CM2.1, providing further validation of this model as a proxy for nature. The two regimes differ strongly in the magnitude of the eastern Pacific warming but not much in the central Pacific. Observations and model agree in the existence of a finite positive threshold in the SST anomaly above which the zonal wind response to warming is strongly enhanced. Such nonlinearity in the Bjerknes feedback, which increases the growth rate of EN events if they reach sufficiently large amplitude, is very likely the essential mechanism that gives rise to the existence of the two EN regimes. Oceanic nonlinear advection does not appear essential for the onset of strong EN. The threshold nonlinearity could make the EN regimes very sensitive to stochastic forcing. Observations and model agree that the westerly wind stress anomaly in the central equatorial Pacific in late boreal summer has a substantial role determining the EN regime in the following winter and it is suggested that a stochastic component at this time was key for the development of the strong EN towards the end of 1982.

Structure and dynamics of decadal anomalies in the wintertime midlatitude North Pacific ocean–atmosphere system

Abstract: The structure and dynamics of decadal anomalies in the wintertime midlatitude North Pacific ocean–atmosphere system are examined in this study, using the NCEP/NCAR atmospheric reanalysis, HadISST SST and Simple Ocean Data Assimilation data for 1960–2010. The midlatitude decadal anomalies associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation are identified, being characterized by an equivalent barotropic atmospheric low (high) pressure over a cold (warm) oceanic surface. Such a unique configuration of decadal anomalies can be maintained by an unstable ocean–atmosphere interaction mechanism in the midlatitudes, which is hypothesized as follows. Associated with a warm PDO phase, an initial midlatitude surface westerly anomaly accompanied with intensified Aleutian low tends to force a negative SST anomaly by increasing upward surface heat fluxes and driving southward Ekman current anomaly. The SST cooling tends to increase the meridional SST gradient, thus enhancing the subtropical oceanic front. As an adjustment of the atmospheric boundary layer to the enhanced oceanic front, the low-level atmospheric meridional temperature gradient and thus the low-level atmospheric baroclinicity tend to be strengthened, inducing more active transient eddy activities that increase transient eddy vorticity forcing. The vorticity forcing that dominates the total atmospheric forcing tends to produce an equivalent barotropic atmospheric low pressure north of the initial westerly anomaly, intensifying the initial anomalies of the midlatitude surface westerly and Aleutian low. Therefore, it is suggested that the midlatitude ocean–atmosphere interaction can provide a positive feedback mechanism for the development of initial anomaly, in which the oceanic front and the atmospheric transient eddy are the indispensable ingredients. Such a positive ocean–atmosphere feedback mechanism is fundamentally responsible for the observed decadal anomalies in the midlatitude North Pacific ocean–atmosphere system.

Shallowness of tropical low clouds as a predictor of climate models’ response to warming

Abstract: How tropical low clouds change with climate remains the dominant source of uncertainty in global warming projections. An analysis of an ensemble of CMIP5 climate models reveals that a significant part of the spread in the models’ climate sensitivity can be accounted by differences in the climatological shallowness of tropical low clouds in weak-subsidence regimes: models with shallower low clouds in weak-subsidence regimes tend to have a higher climate sensitivity than models with deeper low clouds. The dynamical mechanisms responsible for the model differences are analyzed. Competing effects of parameterized boundary-layer turbulence and shallow convection are found to be essential. Boundary-layer turbulence and shallow convection are typically represented by distinct parameterization schemes in current models—parameterization schemes that often produce opposing effects on low clouds. Convective drying of the boundary layer tends to deepen low clouds and reduce the cloud fraction at the lowest levels; turbulent moistening tends to make low clouds more shallow but affects the low-cloud fraction less. The relative importance different models assign to these opposing mechanisms contributes to the spread of the climatological shallowness of low clouds and thus to the spread of low-cloud changes under global warming.

Modulation of equatorial Pacific westerly/easterly wind events by the Madden–Julian oscillation and convectively-coupled Rossby waves

Abstract: Synoptic wind events in the equatorial Pacific strongly influence the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) evolution. This paper characterizes the spatio-temporal distribution of Easterly (EWEs) and Westerly Wind Events (WWEs) and quantifies their relationship with intraseasonal and interannual large-scale climate variability. We unambiguously demonstrate that the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) and Convectively-coupled Rossby Waves (CRW) modulate both WWEs and EWEs occurrence probability. 86 % of WWEs occur within convective MJO and/or CRW phases and 83 % of EWEs occur within the suppressed phase of MJO and/or CRW. 41 % of WWEs and 26 % of EWEs are in particular associated with the combined occurrence of a CRW/MJO, far more than what would be expected from a random distribution (3 %). Wind events embedded within MJO phases also have a stronger impact on the ocean, due to a tendency to have a larger amplitude, zonal extent and longer duration. These findings are robust irrespective of the wind events and MJO/CRW detection methods. While WWEs and EWEs behave rather symmetrically with respect to MJO/CRW activity, the impact of ENSO on wind events is asymmetrical. The WWEs occurrence probability indeed increases when the warm pool is displaced eastward during El Nino events, an increase that can partly be related to interannual modulation of the MJO/CRW activity in the western Pacific. On the other hand, the EWEs modulation by ENSO is less robust, and strongly depends on the wind event detection method. The consequences of these results for ENSO predictability are discussed.

Monsoon-extratropical circulation interactions in Himalayan extreme rainfall

Abstract: Extreme precipitation and flood episodes in the Himalayas are oftentimes traced to synoptic situations involving connections between equatorward advancing upper level extratropical circulations and moisture-laden tropical monsoon circulation. While previous studies have documented precipitation characteristics in the Himalayan region during severe storm cases, a comprehensive understanding of circulation dynamics of extreme precipitation mechanisms is still warranted. In this study, a detailed analysis is performed using rainfall observations and reanalysis circulation products to understand the evolution of monsoon-extratropical circulation features and their interactions based on 34 extreme precipitation events which occurred in the Western Himalayas (WEH) during the period 1979–2013. Our results provide evidence for a common large-scale circulation pattern connecting the extratropics and the South Asian monsoon region, which is favorable for extreme precipitation occurrences in the WEH region. This background upper level large-scale circulation pattern consists of a deep southward penetrating midlatitude westerly trough, a blocking high over western Eurasia and an intensifying Tibetan anticyclone. It is further seen from our analysis that the key elements of monsoon-midlatitude interactions, responsible for extreme precipitation events over the WEH region, are: (1) midlatitude Rossby wave breaking, (2) west-northwest propagation of monsoon low-pressure system from the Bay of Bengal across the Indian subcontinent, (3) eddy shedding of the Tibetan anticyclone, (4) ageostrophic motions and transverse circulation across the Himalayas, and (5) strong moist convection over the Himalayan foothills. Furthermore, high-resolution numerical simulations indicate that diabatic heating and mesoscale ageostrophic effects can additionally amplify the convective motions and precipitation in the WEH region.

A new framework for climate sensitivity and prediction: a modelling perspective

Abstract: The sensitivity of climate models to increasing CO2 concentration and the climate response at decadal time-scales are still major factors of uncertainty for the assessment of the long and short term effects of anthropogenic climate change. While the relative slow progress on these issues is partly due to the inherent inaccuracies of numerical climate models, this also hints at the need for stronger theoretical foundations to the problem of studying climate sensitivity and performing climate change predictions with numerical models. Here we demonstrate that it is possible to use Ruelle’s response theory to predict the impact of an arbitrary CO2 forcing scenario on the global surface temperature of a general circulation model. Response theory puts the concept of climate sensitivity on firm theoretical grounds, and addresses rigorously the problem of predictability at different time-scales. Conceptually, these results show that performing climate change experiments with general circulation models is a well defined problem from a physical and mathematical point of view. Practically, these results show that considering one single CO2 forcing scenario is enough to construct operators able to predict the response of climatic observables to any other CO2 forcing scenario, without the need to perform additional numerical simulations. We also introduce a general relationship between climate sensitivity and climate response at different time scales, thus providing an explicit definition of the inertia of the system at different time scales. This technique allows also for studying systematically, for a large variety of forcing scenarios, the time horizon at which the climate change signal (in an ensemble sense) becomes statistically significant. While what we report here refers to the linear response, the general theory allows for treating nonlinear effects as well. These results pave the way for redesigning and interpreting climate change experiments from a radically new perspective.

Influence of the Madden Julian Oscillation on precipitation and surface air temperature in South America

Abstract: The regional influence of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) on South America is described. Maps of probability of weekly-averaged rainfall exceeding the upper tercile were computed for all seasons and related statistically with the phase of the MJO as characterized by the Wheeler–Hendon real-time multivariate MJO (RMM) index and with the OLR MJO Index. The accompanying surface air temperature and circulation anomalies were also calculated. The influence of the MJO on regional scales along with their marked seasonal variations was documented. During December–February when the South American monsoon system is active, chances of enhanced rainfall are observed in southeastern South America (SESA) region mainly during RMM phases 3 and 4, accompanied by cold anomalies in the extratropics, while enhanced rainfall in the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ) region is observed in phases 8 and 1. The SESA (SACZ) signal is characterized by upper-level convergence (divergence) over tropical South America and a cyclonic (anticyclonic) anomaly near the southern tip of the continent. Impacts during March–May are similar, but attenuated in the extratropics. Conversely, in June–November, reduced rainfall and cold anomalies are observed near the coast of the SACZ region during phases 4 and 5, favored by upper-level convergence over tropical South America and an anticyclonic anomaly over southern South America. In September–November, enhanced rainfall and upper-level divergence are observed in the SACZ region during phases 7 and 8. These signals are generated primarily through the propagation of Rossby wave energy generated in the region of anomalous heating associated with the MJO.

Impact of moisture flux convergence and soil moisture on precipitation: a case study for the southern United States with implications for the globe

Abstract: Interactions between soil moisture, evapotranspiration (ET), atmospheric moisture fluxes and precipitation are complex. It is difficult to attribute the variations of one variable to another. In this study, we investigate the influence of atmospheric moisture fluxes and land surface soil moisture on local precipitation, with a focus on the southern United States (U.S.), a region with a strong humidity gradient and intense moisture fluxes. Experiments with the Weather Research and Forecasting model show that the variation of moisture flux convergence (MFC) is more important than that of soil moisture for precipitation variation over the southern U.S. Further analyses decompose the precipitation change into several contributing factors and show that MFC affects precipitation both directly through changing moisture inflow (wet areas) and indirectly by changing the precipitation efficiency (transitional zones). Soil moisture affects precipitation mainly by changing the precipitation efficiency, and secondly through direct surface ET contribution. The greatest soil moisture effects are over transitional zones. MFC is more important for the probability of heavier rainfall; soil moisture has much weaker impact on rainfall probability and its roles are similar for the probability of intermediate-to-heavy rainfall (>10 mm day−1). Although MFC is more important than soil moisture for precipitation over most regions, the impact of soil moisture could be large over certain transitional regions. At the submonthly time scale, the African Sahel appears to be the only major region where soil moisture has a greater impact than MFC on precipitation. This study provides guidance to understanding and further investigation of the roles of local land surface processes and large-scale circulations on precipitation.

Teleconnections of Indian monsoon rainfall with AMO and Atlantic tripole

Abstract: The teleconnections between the decadal modes in the Indian monsoon rainfall (IMR) and the North Atlantic sea surface temperature are investigated. The two decadal modes of variability in the North Atlantic, the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) and the Atlantic tripole, have opposite relation with the two decadal modes of IMR. The AMO has positive correlation with the monsoon rainfall while the Atlantic tripole has negative correlation. This study has put forward hypotheses for the mechanisms involved in the teleconnections of the AMO and the Atlantic tripole with the IMR. The warm phase of AMO may influence the monsoon through the summer North Atlantic Oscillation (SNAO) and further through the equatorial zonal winds which increase the moisture flow over India by enhancing the southwesterly flow. The warm phase of Atlantic tripole may impact the monsoon through the all-season NAO, leading to decreased moisture flow over India through the equatorial wind pattern. The observed relations between the decadal modes in the North Atlantic and the Indian monsoon are explored in the simulations of National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4) model. Although the model supports the observed decadal teleconnection between the Atlantic Ocean and Indian monsoon, it has limitations in capturing the details of the spatial pattern associated with the teleconnection. The teleconnections of AMO and Atlantic tripole with the Indian monsoon is further demonstrated through an experiment with CCSM4 by decoupling the North Atlantic Ocean. The hypotheses for the mechanisms of the Atlantic teleconnections are also explored in the CCSM4 simulation.

Projected changes of summer monsoon extremes and hydroclimatic regimes over West Africa for the twenty-first century

Abstract: We use two CORDEX-Africa simulations performed with the regional model RegCM4 to characterize the projected changes in extremes and hydroclimatic regimes associated with the West African Monsoon (WAM). RegCM4 was driven for the period 1970–2100 by the HadGEM2-ES and the MPI-ESM Global Climate Models (GCMs) under the RCP8.5 greenhouse gas concentration pathway. RegCM4 accurately simulates the WAM characteristics in terms of seasonal mean, seasonal cycle, interannual variability and extreme events of rainfall. Overall, both RegCM4 experiments are able to reproduce the large-scale atmospheric circulation for the reference period (i.e. present-day), and in fact show improved performance compared to the driving GCMs in terms of precipitation mean climatology and extreme events, although different shortcomings in the various models are still evident. Precipitation is projected to decrease (increase) over western (eastern) Sahel, although with different spatial detail between RegCM4 and the corresponding driving GCMs. Changes in extreme precipitation events show patterns in line with those of the mean change. The models project different changes in water budget over the Sahel region, where the MPI projects an increased deficit in local moisture supply (E P). The E–P change is primarily precipitation driven. The precipitation increases over the eastern and/or central Sahel are attributed to the increase of moisture convergence due to increased water vapor in the boundary layer air column and surface evaporation. On the other hand, the projected dry conditions over the western Sahel are associated with the strengthening of moisture divergence in the upper level (850–300 hPa) combined to both a southward migration of the African Easterly Jet (AEJ) and a weakening of rising motion between the core of the AEJ and the Tropical Easterly Jet.

Daily precipitation statistics in a EURO-CORDEX RCM ensemble: added value of raw and bias-corrected high-resolution simulations

Abstract: Daily precipitation statistics in a EURO-CORDEX RCM ensemble : added value of raw and bias-corrected high-resolution simulations

Anthropogenic forcing on the Hadley circulation in CMIP5 simulations

Abstract: Poleward expansion of the Hadley circulation has been an important topic in climate change studies in the past few years, and one of the critically important issues is how it is related to anthropogenic forcings. Using simulations from the coupled model intercomparison projection phase 5 (CMIP5), we study influences of anthropogenic forcings on the width and strength of the Hadley circulation. It is found that significant poleward expansion of the Hadley circulation can be reproduced in CMIP5 historical all-forcing simulations although the magnitude of trends is much weaker than observations. Simulations with individual forcings demonstrate that among three major types of anthropogenic forcings, increasing greenhouse gases (GHGs) and stratospheric ozone depletion all cause poleward expansion of the Hadley circulation, whereas anthropogenic aerosols do not have significant influences on the Hadley circulation. Increasing GHGs cause significant poleward expansion in both hemispheres, with the largest widening of the northern cell in boreal autumn. Stratospheric ozone depletion forces significant poleward expansion of the Hadley circulation for the southern cell in austral spring and summer and for the northern cell in boreal spring. In CMIP5 projection simulations for the twenty-first century, the magnitude of poleward expansion of the Hadley circulation increases with GHG forcing. On the other hand, ozone recovery competes with increasing GHGs in determining the width of the Hadley circulation, especially in austral summer. In both historical and projection simulations, the strength of the Hadley circulation shows significant weakening in winter in both hemispheres.

Relative importance of tropical SST anomalies in maintaining the Western North Pacific anomalous anticyclone during El Niño to La Niña transition years

Abstract: This study investigates the relative importance of tropical Indian Ocean warming (IOW) and equatorial central to eastern Pacific cooling (EPC) in sustaining an anomalous Western North Pacific anticyclone (WNPAC) during the transition from an El Nino in the preceding winter to a La Nina in the subsequent summer through a suite of numerical experiments. The numerical results indicate that the WNPAC is maintained by a combined effect of IOW and EPC during the La Nina developing years. The contribution of IOW in maintaining the WNPAC sustains from spring to early summer, but appears to weaken after that as IOW decays. The role of IOW is via an eastward-propagating Kelvin wave induced Ekman divergence mechanism. The decay of IOW is because of reduction in downward solar radiation associated with above normal precipitation in situ. As the cooling develops over central to eastern Pacific from spring to summer, EPC starts to contribute to the maintenance of the WNPAC during summer through stimulating a Rossby wave response to its northwest. In this study, we have identified that the cooling over the central to eastern Pacific plays an important role in sustaining the WNPAC during La Nina developing summers. This finding may help improve the prediction of the East Asian summer monsoon, which is closely associated with the WNPAC.