Do refugees impact voting behavior in the host country? Evidence from Syrian refugee inflows to Turkey

TLDR: This paper studied how individual political preferences changed in response to the influx of over 3.5 million Syrian refugees to Turkey during 2012-2016 and found strong polarization in attitudes towards refugees between the supporters and opponents of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP).

Abstract: We study how individual political preferences changed in response to the influx of over 3.5 million Syrian refugees to Turkey during 2012–2016. Using a difference-in-differences research design, we compare the political outcomes in geographic areas with high versus low intensities of refugee presence before and after the beginning of the Syrian Civil War. To address the endogeneity of refugees’ location choices, we adopt an instrumental variables approach that relies on (1) historical dispersion of Arabic speakers in Turkish provinces and (2) driving distances between Turkish and Syrian residential areas to predict the flows of refugees across Turkish provinces during the study period. We find strong polarization in attitudes towards refugees between the supporters and opponents of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP). However, regression analyses of monthly survey data suggest that the massive inflow of refugees induced only a modest net drop in support for the AKP. Refugee inflows did not have a significant impact on election outcomes during the study period.

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Figure 2b.

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Table 3. Effect of Refugees on Voting Behavior

Table 4. Effect of Refugees on Voting Behavior: Subgroup Analysis

Table 1. Geographic Distribution of Syrian Refugees in Turkey, December 2016

Frequently asked questions

Q1. What have the authors contributed in "Do refugees impact voting behavior in the host country? evidence from syrian refugee inflows in turkey" ?

The authors study the effect of an influx of approximately three million Syrian refugees on voting behavior in Turkey. The authors show similarly small, but statistically insignificant impact on actual election outcomes. Regression analyses of monthly survey data, however, suggest that the massive inflow of refugees induced only a modest drop in support for the AKP. 

Q2. Why is the refugee population variable variable endogenous?

Because more than 90% of refugees live outside camps, the geographic variation in refugee resettlement is potentially endogenous. 

Q3. What is the biggest supporter of the Syrian refugees?

Among the four major political parties, CHP stands as the most outspoken critic of Syrians in Turkey and HDP their biggest supporter. 

Q4. What is the likely explanation for the lack of any effect of refugee influx on electoral?

One possible explanation for the lack of any effect of refugee influx on electoral outcomes in their analysis could be that there is more empathy towards Syrian refugees in Turkey than across Europe, where studies have found increasing support for xenophobic political fractions on account of refugee and immigration flows. 

Q5. What is the effect of refugee presence on the vote share of the ruling AKP?

OLS estimates from the survey data (panel A) suggest that a one-percentage point increase in refugee presence is associated with a 0.44 percentage point drop in AKP’s vote share. 

Q6. What is the main reason why voters favor a political party that advocates for a more conservative?

Fears that the refugee influx compromises national security and has adverse economic effects may cause voters to favor a political party that advocates for a more conservative refugee policy and blame AKP for the refugee inflow. 

Q7. How many voters cast their votes during the last three general elections?

Voter turnout in Turkey was substantially high during these recent elections with more than 84% of the eligible voters casting their votes. 

Q8. How many AKP supporters believe that AKP is the only political party that could solve?

According to the combined monthly surveys, 87% of AKP supporters believe that AKP is the only political party that could solve Turkey’s most important and pressing problems. 

Q9. What is the causal interpretation of these results?

The causal interpretation of these results requires the assumption that in the absence of refugee inflows, regions with high- and low-intensity of Arabic speakers would have similar trends in voting behavior. 

Q10. What is the data on local perceptions of refugees?

Data on local perceptions of refugees come from a field survey conducted in February 2016 by Konda Research and Consultancy, an independent leading research company in Turkey. 

Q11. What is the likely explanation for the lack of political stability in Turkey?

Another potential explanation is that the Turkish voters are responding to the ongoing civil war in neighboring Syria by opting for political stability. 

Q12. What is the effect of refugees on the voting preferences of the three opposition parties?

The authors conclude that the empirical evidence is too weak to indicate any impact of refugees on the voting preferences for the three opposition parties; rather suggests a modest and temporary decline in support for the ruling AKP party with no cross-party transition of voters.