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Journal ArticleDOI

Dynamic price dependence of Canadian and international art markets: an empirical analysis

01 Oct 2012-Empirical Economics (Springer-Verlag)-Vol. 43, Iss: 2, pp 867-890

AbstractAlthough the market for Canadian paintings is now of substantial magnitude, with several works having recently been sold for well over a million dollars, it remains true that with very few exceptions, the works of Canadian painters are bought and sold only in Canada and seem to be held only by Canadian collectors. This market can thus be viewed as largely local, and it is therefore not clear whether there should be any linkage between price movements for Canadian art and those for the mainstream international market in old master, impressionist, and modern art. This article investigates the presence and nature of such time series dependence econometrically, both in terms of long-term trends as reflected in the co-integrating relationship between Canadian and the international market, and in terms of short-run co-movements as represented in correlations. The possibility that the local market “follows” the international one is also considered through an analysis of Granger causality. For Canadian art prices, we use a new hedonic index that has been computed using an updated version of the dataset of Hodgson and Vorkink (Can J Econ 37:629–655, 2004), while for the international prices, we use an index provided by Mei and Moses (Am Econ Rev 92:1656–1668, 2002).

Topics: Index (economics) (55%), Hedonic index (54%), Granger causality (51%)

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01 Nov 2003
Abstract: This paper examines the short and long-term price linkages among major art and equity markets over the period 1976-2001. The art markets examined are Contemporary Masters, French Impressionists, Modern European, 19th Century European, Old Masters, Surrealists, 20th Century English and Modern US paintings. A global equity index (with dividends and capitalisation changes) is also included. Multivariate cointegration procedures, Granger non-causality tests, level VAR and generalised variance decomposition analyses based on error-correction and vector autoregressive models are conducted to analyse short and long-run relationships among these markets. The results indicate that there is a stationary long-run relationship and significant short and long run causal linkages between the various painting markets and between the equity market and painting markets. However, in terms of the percentage of variance explained most painting markets are relatively isolated, and other painting markets are generally more important than the equity market in explaining the variance that is not caused by innovations in the market itself. This suggests that opportunities for portfolio diversification in art works alone and in conjunction with equity markets exist, though in common with the literature in this area the study finds that the returns on paintings are much lower and the risks much higher than in conventional financial markets.

46 citations


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Abstract: We examine the dynamics of the relationships between the prices in Turkish paintings auctions and international art markets during 1990–2005 using cointegration and Granger-causality tests. We also estimate the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) relationship between the Turkish and the global paintings markets. In our investigations, we employ a hedonic price index based on 1030 paintings by 13 Turkish painters and the global paintings market index as calculated by Artprice©. We find that the prices in the Turkish paintings market move in line with the international art markets in the long term. As expected, the direction of causality runs unilaterally from the international paintings market to the Turkish paintings market. The CAPM beta values were found to be unstable over time and not statistically significant at conventional levels. Hence, international art investors might be able to benefit from the higher returns in the Turkish paintings market while diversifying their art portfolios, especially in ...

20 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
Abstract: Although Howard Becker defines art worlds as networks of cooperating people and a broad range of studies has applied this idea of the network to art markets, research on fairs remains a neglected issue. This article aims to advance the idea of the network and the art fair with regard to the art fair boom, the differentiation of art fairs and their interlinking, and the role of networks with regard to the participating galleries and their interlinking within art fairs. Quantitative and qualitative data are brought forward to shed some light on these issues, including statistical information, along with interviews.

17 citations


Cites background from "Dynamic price dependence of Canadia..."

  • ...The exportation of works of art declined and, as a result, prices dropped sharply (see Pesando 1993; Hodgson and Seçkin 2012)....

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Abstract: The valuation of French Canadian paintings is analysed empirically Using a sample of auction prices for major French Canadian painters for the period 1968 to 2005, we run hedonic regressions to determine the influence of various factors, including painter identity, on auction prices, as well as to construct a market price index This is then used in a second stage analysis of the properties of these art works viewed as investment assets We consider the extent to which standard asset pricing theory, as represented by the capital asset pricing model, can account for price movements in the market for French Canadian paintings

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References
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Journal ArticleDOI
Abstract: Let n observations Y 1, Y 2, ···, Y n be generated by the model Y t = pY t−1 + e t , where Y 0 is a fixed constant and {e t } t-1 n is a sequence of independent normal random variables with mean 0 and variance σ2. Properties of the regression estimator of p are obtained under the assumption that p = ±1. Representations for the limit distributions of the estimator of p and of the regression t test are derived. The estimator of p and the regression t test furnish methods of testing the hypothesis that p = 1.

21,509 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
Abstract: SUMMARY This paper proposes new tests for detecting the presence of a unit root in quite general time series models. Our approach is nonparametric with respect to nuisance parameters and thereby allows for a very wide class of weakly dependent and possibly heterogeneously distributed data. The tests accommodate models with a fitted drift and a time trend so that they may be used to discriminate between unit root nonstationarity and stationarity about a deterministic trend. The limiting distributions of the statistics are obtained under both the unit root null and a sequence of local alternatives. The latter noncentral distribution theory yields local asymptotic power functions for the tests and facilitates comparisons with alternative procedures due to Dickey & Fuller. Simulations are reported on the performance of the new tests in finite samples.

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"Dynamic price dependence of Canadia..." refers methods in this paper

  • ...We test for the order of integration in the series using the augmented-Dickey- Fuller (1979) (ADF) and the Phillips and Perron (1988) (PP) tests on the natural logarithms of the variables and on the first differences....

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11,980 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: A ordered sequence of events or observations having a time component is called as a time series, and some good examples are daily opening and closing stock prices, daily humidity, temperature, pressure, annual gross domestic product of a country and so on.
Abstract: Preface1Difference Equations12Lag Operators253Stationary ARMA Processes434Forecasting725Maximum Likelihood Estimation1176Spectral Analysis1527Asymptotic Distribution Theory1808Linear Regression Models2009Linear Systems of Simultaneous Equations23310Covariance-Stationary Vector Processes25711Vector Autoregressions29112Bayesian Analysis35113The Kalman Filter37214Generalized Method of Moments40915Models of Nonstationary Time Series43516Processes with Deterministic Time Trends45417Univariate Processes with Unit Roots47518Unit Roots in Multivariate Time Series54419Cointegration57120Full-Information Maximum Likelihood Analysis of Cointegrated Systems63021Time Series Models of Heteroskedasticity65722Modeling Time Series with Changes in Regime677A Mathematical Review704B Statistical Tables751C Answers to Selected Exercises769D Greek Letters and Mathematical Symbols Used in the Text786Author Index789Subject Index792

10,006 citations


ReportDOI
Abstract: The asymptotic power envelope is derived for point-optimal tests of a unit root in the autoregressive representation of a Gaussian time series under various trend specifications. We propose a family of tests whose asymptotic power functions are tangent to the power envelope at one point and are never far below the envelope. When the series has no deterministic component, some previously proposed tests are shown to be asymptotically equivalent to members of this family. When the series has an unknown mean or linear trend, commonly used tests are found to be dominated by members of the family of point-optimal invariant tests. We propose a modified version of the Dickey-Fuller t test which has substantially improved power when an unknown mean or trend is present. A Monte Carlo experiment indicates that the modified test works well in small samples.

4,249 citations