Journal ArticleDOI
Effective seasonal climate forecast applications: examining constraints for subsistence farmers in Zimbabwe
Anthony Patt,Chiedza Gwata +1 more
TLDR
In this article, the authors discuss a set of six constraints limiting the usefulness of forecasts: credibility, legitimacy, scale, cognitive capacity, procedural and institutional barriers, and available choices.Abstract:
For the last decade, climate scientists have improved their skill at predicting seasonal rainfall patterns in many parts of the world based on observations of sea surface temperatures. Making forecasts useful to decision-makers, especially subsistence farmers in developing countries, remains a significant challenge. In this paper, we discuss a set of six constraints limiting the usefulness of forecasts: credibility, legitimacy, scale, cognitive capacity, procedural and institutional barriers, and available choices. We identify how these constraints have in fact limited forecast use so far, and propose means of overcoming them. We then discuss a pilot project in Zimbabwe, where we test our proposals. Drawing from two years’ observation, we offer lessons to guide future efforts at effective forecast communication.read more
Citations
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Journal ArticleDOI
Adaptive capacity and human cognition: The process of individual adaptation to climate change
Torsten Grothmann,Anthony Patt +1 more
TL;DR: In this paper, a socio-cognitive model of private proactive adaptation to climate change (MPPACC) is proposed, which separates out the psychological steps to taking action in response to perception, and allows one to see where the most important bottlenecks occur.
Book Chapter
Assessment of adaptation practices, options, constraints and capacity
WN Adger,S Agrawal,Mmw Mirza,Cecilia Conde,Karen O'Brien,Juan M. Pulhin,Roger S. Pulwarty,Barry Smit,Kiyoshi Takahashi +8 more
TL;DR: Enright et al. as discussed by the authors presented the Enright-Fankhauser-Gabel-Nantel-Klein model, which is based on the work of the authors of this paper.
Journal ArticleDOI
ENSO as an Integrating Concept in Earth Science
TL;DR: Research to address many intertwined issues regarding ENSO dynamics, impacts, forecasting, and applications remain unresolved will lead to progress across a broad range of scientific disciplines and provide an opportunity to educate the public and policy makers about the importance of climate variability and change in the modern world.
Journal ArticleDOI
Creating usable science: Opportunities and constraints for climate knowledge use and their implications for science policy
Lisa Dilling,Maria Carmen Lemos +1 more
TL;DR: It is found that climate science usability is a function both of the context of potential use and of the process of scientific knowledge production itself, and that iterativity is the result of the action of specific actors and organizations who ‘own’ the task of building the conditions and mechanisms fostering its creation.
Journal ArticleDOI
Coping better with current climatic variability in the rain-fed farming systems of sub-Saharan Africa: An essential first step in adapting to future climate change?
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors present tools and approaches that allow for better understanding, characterization and mapping of the agricultural implications of climate variability and the development of climate risk management strategies specifically tailored to stakeholders needs.
References
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Prospect theory: an analysis of decision under risk
Daniel Kahneman,Amos Tversky +1 more
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors present a critique of expected utility theory as a descriptive model of decision making under risk, and develop an alternative model, called prospect theory, in which value is assigned to gains and losses rather than to final assets and in which probabilities are replaced by decision weights.
Journal ArticleDOI
Prospect theory: analysis of decision under risk
Daniel Kahneman,Amos Tversky +1 more
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Amos Tversky,Daniel Kahneman +1 more
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