Showing papers in "Global Environmental Change-human and Policy Dimensions in 2006"

Resilience: the emergence of a perspective for social-ecological systems analyses

Abstract: The resilience perspective is increasingly used as an approach for understanding the dynamics of social–ecological systems. This article presents the origin of the resilience perspective and provides an overview of its development to date. With roots in one branch of ecology and the discovery of multiple basins of attraction in ecosystems in the 1960–1970s, it inspired social and environmental scientists to challenge the dominant stable equilibrium view. The resilience approach emphasizes non-linear dynamics, thresholds, uncertainty and surprise, how periods of gradual change interplay with periods of rapid change and how such dynamics interact across temporal and spatial scales. The history was dominated by empirical observations of ecosystem dynamics interpreted in mathematical models, developing into the adaptive management approach for responding to ecosystem change. Serious attempts to integrate the social dimension is currently taking place in resilience work reflected in the large numbers of sciences involved in explorative studies and new discoveries of linked social–ecological systems. Recent advances include understanding of social processes like, social learning and social memory, mental models and knowledge–system integration, visioning and scenario building, leadership, agents and actor groups, social networks, institutional and organizational inertia and change, adaptive capacity, transformability and systems of adaptive governance that allow for management of essential ecosystem services.

Adaptation, adaptive capacity and vulnerability

Abstract: This paper reviews the concept of adaptation of human communities to global changes, especially climate change, in the context of adaptive capacity and vulnerability. It focuses on scholarship that contributes to practical implementation of adaptations at the community scale. In numerous social science fields, adaptations are considered as responses to risks associated with the interaction of environmental hazards and human vulnerability or adaptive capacity. In the climate change field, adaptation analyses have been undertaken for several distinct purposes. Impact assessments assume adaptations to estimate damages to longer term climate scenarios with and without adjustments. Evaluations of specified adaptation options aim to identify preferred measures. Vulnerability indices seek to provide relative vulnerability scores for countries, regions or communities. The main purpose of participatory vulnerability assessments is to identify adaptation strategies that are feasible and practical in communities. The distinctive features of adaptation analyses with this purpose are outlined, and common elements of this approach are described. Practical adaptation initiatives tend to focus on risks that are already problematic, climate is considered together with other environmental and social stresses, and adaptations are mostly integrated or mainstreamed into other resource management, disaster preparedness and sustainable development programs. r 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Linkages between vulnerability, resilience, and adaptive capacity

Abstract: This article uses a systemic perspective to identify and analyze the conceptual relations among vulnerability, resilience, and adaptive capacity within socio-ecological systems (SES). Since different intellectual traditions use the terms in different, sometimes incompatible, ways, they emerge as strongly related but unclear in the precise nature of their relationships. A set of diagnostic questions is proposed regarding the specification of the terms to develop a shared conceptual framework for the natural and social dimensions of global change. Also, development of a general theory of change in SESs is suggested as an important agenda item for research on global change.

The globalization of socio-ecological systems: An agenda for scientific research

Abstract: We argue that globalization is a central feature of coupled human–environment systems or, as we call them, socio-ecological systems (SESs). In this article, we focus on the effects of globalization on the resilience, vulnerability, and adaptability of these systems. We begin with a brief discussion of key terms, arguing that socio-economic resilience regularly substitutes for biophysical resilience in SESs with consequences that are often unforeseen. A discussion of several mega-trends (e.g. the rise of mega-cities, the demand for hydrocarbons, the revolution in information technologies) underpins our argument. We then proceed to identify key analytical dimensions of globalization, including rising connectedness, increased speed, spatial stretching, and declining diversity. We show how each of these phenomena can cut both ways in terms of impacts on the resilience and vulnerability of SESs. A particularly important insight flowing from this analysis centers on the reversal of the usual conditions in which large-scale things are slow and durable while small-scale things are fast and ephemeral. The fact that SESs are reflexive can lead either to initiatives aimed at avoiding or mitigating the dangers of globalization or to positive feedback processes that intensify the impacts of globalization. In the concluding section, we argue for sustained empirical research regarding these concerns and make suggestions about ways to enhance the incentives for individual researchers to work on these matters.

Scholarly networks on resilience, vulnerability and adaptation within the human dimensions of global environmental change

Abstract: This paper presents the results of a bibliometric analysis of the knowledge domains resilience, vulnerability and adaptation within the research activities on human dimensions of global environmental change. We analyzed how 2286 publications between 1967 and 2005 are related in terms of co-authorship relations, and citation relations. The number of publications in the three knowledge domains increased rapidly between 1995 and 2005. However, the resilience knowledge domain is only weakly connected with the other two domains in terms of co-authorships and citations. The resilience knowledge domain has a background in ecology and mathematics with a focus on theoretical models, while the vulnerability and adaptation knowledge domains have a background in geography and natural hazards research with a focus on case studies and climate change research. There is an increasing number of cross citations and papers classified in multiple knowledge domains. This seems to indicate an increasing integration of the different knowledge domains. r 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Vulnerability to climate change in the Arctic: A case study from Arctic Bay, Canada

Abstract: This paper develops a vulnerability-based approach to characterize the human implications of climate change in Arctic Bay, Canada. It focuses on community vulnerabilities associated with resource harvesting and the processes through which people adapt to them in the context of livelihood assets, constraints, and outside influences. Inuit in Arctic Bay have demonstrated significant adaptability in the face of changing climate-related exposures. This adaptability is facilitated by traditional Inuit knowledge, strong social networks, flexibility in seasonal hunting cycles, some modern technologies, and economic support. Changing Inuit livelihoods, however, have undermined certain aspects of adaptive capacity, and have resulted in emerging vulnerabilities in certain sections of the community.

NDVI-based increase in growth of temperate grasslands and its responses to climate changes in China

Abstract: This study analyzes the temporal change of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) for temperate grasslands in China and its correlation with climatic variables over the period of 1982–1999. Average NDVI of the study area increased at rates of 0.5% yr−1 for the growing season (April–October), 0.61% yr−1 for spring (April and May), 0.49% yr−1 for summer (June–August), and 0.6% yr−1 for autumn (September and October) over the study period. The humped-shape pattern between coefficient of correlation (R) of the growing season NDVI to precipitation and growing season precipitation documents various responses of grassland growth to changing precipitation, while the decreased R values of NDVI to temperature with increase of temperature implies that increased temperature declines sensitivity of plant growth to changing temperature. The results also suggest that the NDVI trends induced by climate changes varied between different vegetation types and seasons.

Resilience, vulnerability, and adaptation: A cross-cutting theme of the International Human Dimensions Programme on Global Environmental Change

Abstract: The concepts resilience, vulnerability, and adaptation are increasingly important for the study of the human dimensions of global environmental change. Events during the last 2 years, such as the hurricane Katrina, the Southeast Asian tsunami, and the Pakistan earthquake, together with the bird flu and continuing droughts in Africa, dramatically illustrate the potential vulnerability of human society to disturbances and variability. The concepts of resilience, vulnerability, and adaptation are used to analyze these and similar events. While these concepts are becoming more important within the global change research community, they do have diverse and somewhat separate intellectual histories. In organizing this special issue, we initially experienced a Tower of Babel in hearing the diverse definitions made of core concepts. The diversity is largely explained by the distinct communities from which the concepts originate. As editors of this special issue, we have not aimed to impose a uniform language, but recognize the diversity of ways in which the terms and concepts are used. By bringing together the various insights on resilience, vulnerability, and adaptation, we hope to provide a comprehensive overview of diverse approaches. A typical example of the linguistic confusion is the use of socio-ecological systems (Gallopı́n et al., 1989), social–ecological systems (Berkes and Folke, 1998), and coupled human–environment systems (Turner et al., 2003). Although there may be some minor differences in the meanings of these terms, all emphasize the importance of including both social and ecological systems as well as their mutual interactions when studying their dynamics. To understand the various concepts of resilience, vulnerability, and adaptation, it is important to know their intellectual histories, which is one of the goals of this issue. By understanding the origin and history of a term, linguistic confusion should slowly be reduced as the different scholarly communities begin to collaborate more and more. We hope this issue stimulates further collaboration among scholars from these diverse traditions. Resilience is a core concept used by ecologists in their analysis of population ecology of plants and animals and in

Adaptation and the state: Latin America and the challenge of capacity-building under globalization

Abstract: In the managerial discourse of climate change, there are high expectations of nation-state leadership in promoting adaptation. Yet globalization has introduced new challenges for the state not only in terms of managing rapid economic and cultural integration, but also with respect to governance and decision-making, the use of science and information in policy, and the types of problems governments are called upon to address. Through concrete examples of the process of policy-making in Latin American countries, we illustrate not only the continued relevance of the state, but also the complex challenges posed by globalization to state-led adaptation.

Living and responding to multiple stressors in South Africa—Glimpses from KwaZulu-Natal

Abstract: Rural, resource-poor communities currently face a number of stressors that curtail livelihood options and reduce overall quality of life. Climate stress in southern Africa could potentially further threaten the livelihoods of such communities. Inappropriate response and adaptation options to risks, including climate stress, could further undermine development efforts in the region. The design and effective implementation of strategies to improve coping and adaptation to possible future risks cannot be undertaken without a detailed assessment of current response options to various risks. By using the Sustainable Livelihoods Framework, this pilot study identifies some of the strategies and constraints to secure livelihoods that are currently being used by small-scale farmers in the Muden area of KwaZulu-Natal. The role and perception of climate risks in relation to a variety of other constraints and risks in the area are also examined. Health status, lack of information and ineffective institutional structures and processes are shown to be some of the key factors aggravating current response options and overall development initiatives with potential negative outcomes for future adaptation to periods of possible heightened climate stress.

Pollution embodied in trade: The Norwegian case

Abstract: With the increase in international trade, it is becoming increasingly important to accurately determine environmental impacts resulting from pollution embodied in trade. Many previous studies have unrealistically assumed that imports are produced with the technology of the importing country. For countries with diverging technology and energy mixes the likely errors are significant. This study uses a model that explicitly includes regional technology differences to the case of Norway. It is found that CO 2 emissions embodied in imports was 67% of Norway's domestic emissions. Around a half of this embodied pollution originates in developing countries, yet they represent only 10% of the value of Norwegian imports. In addition the carbon leakage from non-Annex I countries was at least 30%. We then argue that basing emission inventories on consumption, rather than production, may resolve not only issues related to international trade, but also provide greater flexibility towards pollution intensive resource endowments, emission reductions, and participation levels.

Science-based stakeholder dialogues: Theories and tools

Abstract: Science-based stakeholder dialogues are structured communication processes linking scientists with societal actors, such as representatives of companies, NGOs, governments, and the wider public. Stakeholders possess knowledge needed by scientists to better comprehend, represent and analyse global change problems as well as decision-makers’, managers’ and other stakeholders’ mental models. We will examine the relevance of three theoretical frameworks for science-based stakeholder dialogues in the context of sustainability science. These are Rational Actor Paradigm, Bayesian Learning and Organisational Learning. All three contribute to a better theoretical framework for dialogue practice and the understanding of stakeholders as actors in society and in research in particular. Furthermore, these theories are important for tool development. A combination of analytical and communication tools is recommended to facilitate stakeholder dialogues. The paper refers to examples of dialogue practice gained in the European Climate Forum (ECF).

The relative role of climatic and human factors in desertification in semiarid China

Abstract: Many previous studies have attributed desertification in semiarid China over the past 50 years to over-grazing, over-reclamation, land misuse, and population pressures. The present study, which covers the period from the 1950s to the early 2000s, includes an analysis of proxies for human activity, such as the area of arable land, number of livestock, and population size, and of variations in climatic indices, such as precipitation, evaporation, temperature, frequency of sand-driving winds, and drift potential, to evaluate the key contributors to desertification or rehabilitation in this region. We demonstrate that although human activities and anthropogenic pressures have both promoted desertification, two climatic indices (drift potential and the frequency of sand-driving winds) had a much stronger effect than has been appreciated in previous research. The impact of human activity on environmental change may thus have been overestimated in previous studies.

Multiple exposures and dynamic vulnerability: Evidence from the grape industry in the Okanagan Valley, Canada

Abstract: This paper assesses the vulnerability of grape growers and winery operators in the Okanagan Valley, British Columbia to climate variability and change, in the context of other sources of risk. Through interviews and focus groups, producers identified the climatic and non-climatic risks relevant to them and the strategies employed to manage these risks. The results show that the presence of multiple exposures affects the way in which producers are vulnerable to climate change. Producers are vulnerable to conditions that not only affect crop yield, but also affect their ability to compete in or sell to the market. Their sensitivity to these conditions is influenced in part by institutional factors such as trade liberalization and a “markup-free delivery” policy. Producers’ ability to adapt or cope with these risks varies depending on such factors as the availability of resources and technology, and access to government programmes. Producers will likely face challenges associated with the supply of water for irrigation due to a combination of climatic changes and changing demographics in the Okanagan Valley, which in turn affect their ability to adapt to climatic conditions. Finally, adaptations made by producers can change the nature of the operation and its vulnerability, demonstrating the dynamic nature of vulnerability.

Reversal of the trend in global anthropogenic sulfur emissions

Abstract: Global anthropogenic sulfur emissions increased until the late 1980s. Existing estimates for 1995 and 2000 show a moderate decline from 1990 to 1995 or relative stability throughout the decade. This paper combines previously published data and new econometric estimates to show a 22% decline over the decade to a level not seen since the mid-1960s. The decline is evident in North America, Western and Eastern Europe, and in the last few years in East and South Asia. If this new trend is maintained, local air pollution problems will be ameliorated but global warming may be somewhat exacerbated.

‘Signals’ from pre-crisis discourse: Lessons from UK flooding for global environmental policy change?

Abstract: This paper evaluates policy accelerations after past flood crises in the UK (in 1947, 1953, 1998 and 2000) and explores their value as surrogates or metaphors for how governments might respond with policy changes to the local expressions of global climate and environmental change in the future. We find that these past policy change accelerations were, in general, not based on the development of new ideas but on bringing forward existing ideas that were already the subject of widespread professional or public discourse. We suggest, therefore, that we may be able to detect now, as ‘signals’ within current policy discourse, the embryos of the policy shifts that are likely to come about as part of any crisis-response adaptation to future climate change. If this is the case, then we believe that those with policy responsibilities now may be able to begin carefully and proactively to prepare the ground for such policy changes ahead of the crisis events that will alone trigger their acceleration and adoption.

Effects of climate change on coastal fresh groundwater resources

Abstract: This study evaluates the impacts of climate change on fresh groundwater resources specifically salinity intrusion in water resources stressed coastal aquifers. Our assessment used the Hadley Centre climate model, HadCM3 with high and low emission scenarios (SRES A2 and B2) for years 2000–2099. In both scenarios, the annual fresh groundwater resources losses indicate an increasing long-term trend in all stressed areas, except in the northern Africa/Sahara region. We also found that precipitation and temperature individually did not show good correlations with fresh groundwater loss. However, the relationship between the aridity index and fresh groundwater loss exhibited a strong negative correlation. We also discuss the impacts of loss of fresh groundwater resources on socio-economic activities, mainly population growth and per capita fresh groundwater resources.

Interaction effects between economic development and forest cover determine deforestation rates

Abstract: Recent work on global patterns of deforestation has shown that countries with high per capita GDP or low remaining forest cover are more likely to be experiencing afforestation than deforestation. Here, I show that the relationship is more complex than previously described, because the effect of one variable is dependent upon the value of the other. As a result, high-income nations exhibit the opposite response to disappearing forest cover than low-income nations. In an analysis of 103 countries, I found that high-income countries with low forest cover have the highest rates of afforestation, typically through the establishment of new plantations. In contrast, low-income countries with little forest are more likely to consume that remaining portion at a faster proportional rate than do low-income countries with more forest. Nations with large amounts of forest have approximately equal deforestation rates, regardless of national wealth. These results highlight for the first time that there is a strong interaction between forest cover and economic development that determines rates of forest change among nations.

Using expert judgment to assess adaptive capacity to climate change: Evidence from a conjoint choice survey

Abstract: We use conjoint choice questions to ask a sample of public health and climate change experts contacted at professional meetings in 2003 and 2004 ( n = 100 ) which of two hypothetical countries, A or B, they deem to have the higher adaptive capacity to certain effects of climate change on human health. These hypothetical countries are described by a vector of seven attributes, including per capita income, inequality in the distribution of income, measures of the health status of the population, the health care system, and access to information. Probit models indicate that our respondents regard per capita income, inequality in the distribution of income, universal health care coverage, and high access to information as important determinants of adaptive capacity. A universal-coverage health care system and a high level of access to information are judged to be equivalent to $12,000–$14,000 in per capita income. We use the estimated coefficients and country socio-demographics to construct an index of adaptive capacity for several countries. In panel-data regressions, this index is a good predictor of mortality in climatic disasters, even after controlling for other determinants of sensitivity and exposure, and for per capita income. We conclude that our conjoint choice questions provide a novel and promising approach to eliciting expert judgments in the climate change arena.

Island abandonment and sea-level rise: An historical analog from the Chesapeake Bay, USA

Abstract: Small islands are widely agreed to be vulnerable to human-induced sea-level rise during the 21st century and beyond, with forced abandonment of some low-lying oceanic islands being a real possibility. A regional abandonment of islands in the Chesapeake Bay, USA provides an historical analog of such vulnerability as this has been linked to a mid 19th Century acceleration in relative sea-level rise. Using a case study approach for Holland Island, Maryland, this hypothesis was tested using a range of physical and human historical data. While sea-level rise was the underlying driver, this analysis shows that the abandonment was more complex than a direct response to sea-level rise. Between 1850 and 1900, Holland Island was a booming community and population increased from 37 to 253, with immigration causing the majority of the increase. At the same time, the upland area where people made their homes was steadily diminishing, losing about 15 ha or 38% of the total. After 1900, the island experienced a decrease in population to 169 in 1916, with final abandonment in 1918, with the exception of one family who left by 1920. Final abandonment was triggered by this depopulation as the population fell below a level that could support critical community services, and the community lost faith in their future on Holland Island. It is likely that similar social processes determined the abandonment of the other Chesapeake Bay islands. Looking to the future, it shows that many small low-lying islands could be abandoned due to sea-level rise long before they become physically uninhabitable.

Data and processes linking vulnerability assessment to adaptation decision-making on climate change in Norway

Abstract: The article focuses on the use of climate change vulnerability assessments in a local decision-making context, with particular reference to recent studies in Norway. We focus on two aspects of vulnerability assessments that we see as key to local decision-making: first, the information generated through the assessments themselves, and second, the institutional linkages to local level decision-making processes. Different research approaches generate different types of data. This is rarely made explicit, yet it has important implications for decision-making. In addressing these challenges we propose a dialectic approach based on exchange, rather than integration of data from different approaches. The focus is on process over product, and on the need for anchoring vulnerability assessments in local decision-making processes. In conclusion, we argue that there is unlikely to be one single ‘correct’ assessment tool or indicator model to make vulnerability assessments matter at a local level.

Impacts of different climate stabilisation scenarios on plant species in Europe

Abstract: With the use of goals from the Convention on Biological Diversity we evaluated two climate stabilisation profiles on their merits for conservation of biodiversity, comparing them with a baseline profile. Focusing on plant ecosystems at the pan-European level, we concluded that although a maximum global-mean temperature increase of 2 °C is likely to be met in a 550 ppmv CO 2 -equivalent stabilisation profile, large areas of ecosystems in Europe will be affected. Most of the impacts manifest themselves in northern countries, with a high net increase of plant species, and in Mediterranean countries, with a decrease in the number of plant species and stable area. Other impacts are less robust, given the regional variation in climate results for different climate models.

National assessments of forest fragmentation in the US

Abstract: Because of the linkages among ecological pattern, function and process, policy makers and land managers have increasingly sought measures of landscape pattern that may be used to quantify and monitor changes in forest cover associated with forest fragmentation at national or multinational scales. In this paper, I provide a brief overview of the processes and initiatives driving interest in national assessments of forest fragmentation (e.g., the Montreal Process) and review the results of recent assessments of landscape pattern (and by proxy, fragmentation) conducted at the US national level. Despite widespread recognition that spatial pattern and continuity of forests is important for biodiversity conservation, many international processes and conventions as well as most national forest assessments still focus solely on the extent of forest loss without concern for its spatial pattern, likely due to greater uncertainty over the ecological effects of fragmentation, questions associated with indicator selection, the ill-defined nature of “fragmentation” as an indicator, and confusion over scale and data issues. I thus conclude with a discussion of how experiences gained from recent US assessments may provide insights useful for addressing most or all of these issues when conducting similar assessments in other countries or globally.

Moving boundaries in transboundary air pollution; co-production of science and policy under the convention on long range transboundary air pollution

Abstract: This article focuses on the science–policy interaction in international negotiations in the context of the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe's Convention for Long Range Transboundary Air Pollution (CLRTAP). It addresses the question how participants in the assessment process divide and co-ordinate work between science and policy and how this enhances credibility, legitimacy and relevance with multiple audiences. For this purpose the article combines an analytical framework to approach effectiveness of scientific assessment in policy making, with the notion of boundary work and co-production of science and policy. The article argues that knowledge produced within the CLRTAP process and the institutional setting in which this knowledge production takes place cannot be separated from each other. Furthermore credibility, legitimacy and relevance are to a large extent determined by boundary work in an early stage of the process. At the same time boundary work has to take place continuously in order keep the assessment process credible, legitimate and relevant for new audiences. The application of a combined framework for analysing credibility, legitimacy and relevance and for analysing boundary work turns out to be helpful in describing in detail what happens in practice at the science–policy interface. In particular it helps to address the question of the way participants in the assessment process divide and co-ordinate work, how this shapes design elements and how this enhances credibility legitimacy and relevance of an assessment.

Climate agreements based on responsibility for global warming: Periodic updating, policy choices, and regional costs

Abstract: It has been suggested that calculations of historical responsibility for global warming should be used to distribute mitigation requirements in future climate agreements. For a medium-term mitigation scenario, we calculate regional mitigation costs resulting from global allocation schemes based on the Brazilian Proposal that solely incorporate historical responsibility as a burden sharing criterion. We find that they are likely to violate ability-to-pay principles. In spite of less stringent abatement requirements, developing country regions experience cost burdens (as a percentage of GDP) in the same range as those of developed countries. We also assess the policy options available for calculating historical responsibility. The periodic updating of responsibility calculations over time, concerns over the robustness and availability of emissions data, and the question of whether past emissions were knowingly harmful, may lead to policy choices that increase the relative historical responsibility attributed to developing countries. This, in turn, would increase their mitigation cost burden.

Drought and declining reservoirs: Comparing media discourse in Arizona and New Mexico, 2002–2004

Abstract: Media discourses about drought impacts on lakes and reservoirs in Arizona and New Mexico between 2002 and 2004 are compared to show how discursive contexts shape the framing of drought in temporal and spatial scales. Discursive contexts in the two states are shaped by their cultural and political histories and the differential development of water delivery infrastructures. Quantitative mapping of keywords in the states’ main newspapers shows how New Mexico experienced more conflict and Arizona more surprise about the drought. Qualitative case studies link these patterns to variation in framing between the states. In particular, the shorter temporal scale in New Mexico is linked to a greater sense of emergency, while the longer temporal scale in Arizona reflects the buffering of urban populations from drought through water delivery infrastructure. The finer spatial scale in Arizona, focusing on urban concerns, reflects an established infrastructure of reservoirs while the broader spatial scale in New Mexico, incorporating both rural and urban concerns, reflects a less developed physical infrastructure and greater prevalence of water rights conflicts. This study illustrates the usefulness of a multifaceted approach to the study of media discourse.