Proceedings ArticleDOI
Future Passenger Air Traffic Modelling: Trend Analysis of the Global Passenger Air Travel Demand Network
Robin Ghosh,Ivan Terekhov +1 more
TLDR
This paper presents a 4-layer philosophy to model the future passenger air transportation system in a generic way on a global scale over time until 2050 and examines the evolutions of demand passengers, demand connections, and airfares.Abstract:
This paper is about the architecture for modelling future global air traffic on city pair level. Here, the focus lies on the initial trend analysis of global demand data required as a foundation for predicting the global demand network based on socio-economic scenarios. We present a 4-layer philosophy to model the future passenger air transportation system in a generic way on a global scale over time until 2050. The evolutions of demand passengers, demand connections, and airfares are analyzed as global aggregates and as distributions over the great circle distance between city pairs. Further, global trends of key network metrics are displayed.read more
Citations
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Journal ArticleDOI
Mitigating the Climate Impact from Aviation: Achievements and Results of the DLR WeCare Project
Volker Grewe,Katrin Dahlmann,Jan Flink,Christine Frömming,Robin Ghosh,Klaus Gierens,Romy Heller,Johannes Hendricks,Patrick Jöckel,Stefan H. E. Kaufmann,Katrin Kölker,Florian Linke,Tanja Luchkova,Benjamin Lührs,Jesper van Manen,Sigrun Matthes,Andreas Minikin,Malte Niklaß,Martin Plohr,Mattia Righi,Simon Rosanka,Angela R. Schmitt,Ulrich Schumann,Ivan Terekhov,Simon Unterstrasser,Margarita Vazquez-Navarro,Christiane Voigt,Kai Wicke,Hiroshi Yamashita,Andreas Zahn,Helmut Ziereis +30 more
TL;DR: The WeCare project (Utilizing Weather information for Climate efficient and eco-efficient future aviation) as mentioned in this paper aimed at finding solutions for reducing the climate impact of aviation based on an improved understanding of the atmospheric impact from aviation by making use of measurements and modeling approaches.
Journal ArticleDOI
A literature review and citation analyses of air travel demand studies published between 2010 and 2020
TL;DR: This article reviews 87 air travel demand studies published from 2010 to 2020 and summarizes these studies using their input data and primary analytical methods and uses a relatively objective and replicable framework to compare and link studies by their references.
Book ChapterDOI
Forecasting a Global Air Passenger Demand Network Using Weighted Similarity-Based Algorithms
TL;DR: It is found that a weighted resource allocation index, with defined boundaries, should be utilized for link prediction in the air passenger demand network and it is shown that grouping cities within the air Passenger demand network, based on socio-economic indicators, increases the accuracy of the forecast.
Proceedings ArticleDOI
A concept of forecasting origin-destination air passenger demand between global city pairs using future socio-economic scenarios
TL;DR: A concept of a new method of forecasting air passenger flows on a global level using socio-economic scenarios and predicting the number of passengers on existing and new connections is introduced.
Journal ArticleDOI
Future passenger air traffic modelling: a theoretical concept to integrate quality of travel, cost of travel and capacity constraints
TL;DR: In this paper, the results of the global modelling approach at city pair level were applied to the socioeconomic scenario of Jorgen Randers' '2052' (2012) and the global frequency distributions were shown as a function of great circle distance for sample aircraft sizes at future time steps.
References
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Journal ArticleDOI
The Structure and Function of Complex Networks
TL;DR: Developments in this field are reviewed, including such concepts as the small-world effect, degree distributions, clustering, network correlations, random graph models, models of network growth and preferential attachment, and dynamical processes taking place on networks.
Book
2052: A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years
TL;DR: In this paper, Jorgen Randers guides us through the future he feels is most likely to emerge and examines matters such as: * How many people will the planet need to support? * Will there be enough food and energy? * How youth revolt under the debt and pension burden of the old? * Which nations will prosper and which will suffer?
Climate impact assessment of varying cruise flight altitudes applying the CATS simulation approach
Alexander Koch,Benjamin Lührs,Katrin Dahlmann,Florian Linke,Volker Grewe,Markus Litz,Martin Plohr,Björn Nagel,Volker Gollnick,Ulrich Schumann +9 more
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors describe a comprehensive assessment and modelling approach that was developed in the DLR project Climate compatible Air Transport System (CATS) with the goal to analyze different options to reduce the climate impact of aviation.
Journal ArticleDOI
Theoretical framework of systems design for the air transportation system including an inherently quantitative philosophy of scenario development
TL;DR: An iterative waterfall model is presented, which serves as a mental model of integration and decomposition over cascades of levels of detail from global scenario level to a single technology.
Proceedings ArticleDOI
A concept of forecasting origin-destination air passenger demand between global city pairs using future socio-economic scenarios
TL;DR: A concept of a new method of forecasting air passenger flows on a global level using socio-economic scenarios and predicting the number of passengers on existing and new connections is introduced.