Guidance on quantitative pest risk assessment
Michael J. Jeger,Claude Bragard,David Caffier,Thierry Candresse,Elisavet Chatzivassiliou,Katharina Dehnen-Schmutz,Jean-Claude Grégoire,Josep Anton Jaques Miret,Alan MacLeod,Maria Navajas Navarro,Björn Niere,Stephen Parnell,R.P.J. Potting,Trond Rafoss,Vittorio Rossi,Gregor Urek,Ariena H. C. van Bruggen,Wopke van der Werf,Jonathan West,Stephan Winter,Andy Hart,Jan Schans,Gritta Schrader,Muriel Suffert,Virág Kertész,Svetla Kozelska,Maria Rosaria Mannino,Olaf Mosbach-Schulz,Marco Pautasso,Giuseppe Stancanelli,Sara Tramontini,Sybren Vos,Gianni Gilioli +32 more
Reads0
Chats0
TLDR
This Guidance provides support and a framework for assessors to provide quantitative estimates, together with associated uncertainties, regarding the entry, establishment, spread and impact of plant pests in the EU and allows the effectiveness of risk reducing options (RROs) to be quantitatively assessed as an integral part of the assessment framework.Abstract:
This Guidance describes a two-phase approach for a fit-for-purpose method for the assessment of
plant pest risk in the territory of the EU. Phase one consists of pest categorisation to determine
whether the pest has the characteristics of a quarantine pest or those of a regulated non-quarantine
pest for the area of the EU. Phase two consists of pest risk assessment, which may be requested by
the risk managers following the pest categorisation results. This Guidance provides a template for pest
categorisation and describes in detail the use of modelling and expert knowledge elicitation to conduct
a pest risk assessment. The Guidance provides support and a framework for assessors to provide
quantitative estimates, together with associated uncertainties, regarding the entry, establishment,
spread and impact of plant pests in the EU. The Guidance allows the effectiveness of risk reducing
options (RROs) to be quantitatively assessed as an integral part of the assessment framework. A list of
RROs is provided. A two-tiered approach is proposed for the use of expert knowledge elicitation and
modelling. Depending on data and resources available and the needs of risk managers, pest entry,
establishment, spread and impact steps may be assessed directly, using weight of evidence and
quantitative expert judgement (first tier), or they may be elaborated in substeps using quantitative
models (second tier). An example of an application of the first tier approach is provided. Guidance is
provided on how to derive models of appropriate complexity to conduct a second tier assessment.
Each assessment is operationalised using Monte Carlo simulations that can compare scenarios for
relevant factors, e.g. with or without RROs. This document provides guidance on how to compare
scenarios to draw conclusions on the magnitude of pest risks and the effectiveness of RROs and on
how to communicate assessment results.read more
Citations
More filters
Journal ArticleDOI
Update of the Scientific Opinion on the risks to plant health posed by Xylella fastidiosa in the EU territory.
Claude Bragard,Katharina Dehnen-Schmutz,Francesco Di Serio,Paolo Gonthier,Marie-Agnès Jacques,Josep Anton Jaques Miret,Annemarie Fejer Justesen,Alan MacLeod,Christer Sven Magnusson,Panagiotis Milonas,Juan A Navas-Cortes,R.P.J. Potting,Philippe Lucien Reignault,Hans-Hermann Thulke,Wopke van der Werf,Antonio Vicent Civera,Jonathan Yuen,Lucia Zappalà,Donato Boscia,Daniel S. Chapman,Gianni Gilioli,Rodrigo Krugner,Alexander Mastin,Anna Simonetto,João Roberto Spotti Lopes,Steven M. White,José Cortiñas Abrahantes,Alice Delbianco,Andrea Maiorano,Olaf Mosbach-Schulz,Giuseppe Stancanelli,Michela Guzzo,Stephen Parnell +32 more
TL;DR: Modelling of potential establishment, short‐ and long‐range spread, and the length of the asymptomatic period of X. fastidiosa showed that an early detection and rapid application of phytosanitary measures, consisting of plant removal and vector control, are essential to prevent further spread of the pathogen to new areas.
Journal ArticleDOI
Detailing Köppen–Geiger climate zones at sub‐national to continental scale: a resource for pest risk analysis
Alan MacLeod,A. Korycinska +1 more
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors report the Koppen-geiger climate classification at a range of spatial scales from sub-national to continental for the period 1986-2010 in an accessible table.
Journal ArticleDOI
Guidance on commodity risk assessment for the evaluation of high risk plants dossiers
Claude Bragard,Katharina Dehnen-Schmutz,Francesco Di Serio,Paolo Gonthier,Marie-Agnès Jacques,Josep Anton Jaques Miret,Annemarie Fejer Justesen,Alan MacLeod,Christer Sven Magnusson,Panagiotis Milonas,Juan A Navas-Cortes,Stephen Parnell,Philippe Lucien Reignault,Hans-Hermann Thulke,Wopke van der Werf,Antonio Vicent Civera,Jonathan Yuen,Lucia Zappalà,Michael Jeger,Ciro Gardi,Olaf Mosbach-Schulz,Stefano Preti,Maria Chiara Rosace,Giuseppe Stancanelli,Roel Potting +24 more
TL;DR: This Guidance describes a two‐step approach for the assessment of pest risk associated with a specified commodity and a conclusion on the pest‐freedom status of the commodity is achieved.
Journal ArticleDOI
Climate change as a driver of emerging risks for food and feed safety, plant, animal health and nutritional quality
Journal ArticleDOI
Pest risk assessment of Spodoptera frugiperda for the European Union
Michael Jeger,Claude Bragard,David Caffier,Thierry Candresse,Elisavet Chatzivassiliou,Katharina Dehnen-Schmutz,Gianni Gilioli,Jean-Claude Grégoire,Josep Anton Jaques Miret,Maria Navajas Navarro,Björn Niere,Stephen Parnell,Roel Potting,Trond Rafoss,Vittorio Rossi,Gregor Urek,Ariena H. C. van Bruggen,Wopke van der Werf,Jonathan West,Stephan Winter,Roger Day,Regan Early,Allan Hruska,Rodney Nagoshi,Ciro Gardi,Olaf Mosbach‐Schultz,Alan MacLeod +26 more
TL;DR: A partial risk assessment of Spodoptera frugiperda for the territory of the EU focussing on the main pathways for entry, factors affecting establishment, risk reduction options and pest management was asked for.
References
More filters
Journal Article
R: A language and environment for statistical computing.
TL;DR: Copyright (©) 1999–2012 R Foundation for Statistical Computing; permission is granted to make and distribute verbatim copies of this manual provided the copyright notice and permission notice are preserved on all copies.
Journal ArticleDOI
Extinction risk from climate change
Chris D. Thomas,Alison Cameron,Rhys E. Green,Rhys E. Green,Michel Bakkenes,Linda J. Beaumont,Yvonne C. Collingham,Barend F.N. Erasmus,Marinez Ferreira de Siqueira,Alan Grainger,Lee Hannah,Lesley Hughes,Brian Huntley,Albert S. van Jaarsveld,Guy F. Midgley,Lera Miles,Lera Miles,Miguel A. Ortega-Huerta,A. Townsend Peterson,Oliver L. Phillips,Stephen E. Williams +20 more
TL;DR: Estimates of extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth's terrestrial surface show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration.
Journal ArticleDOI
Predicting species distribution: offering more than simple habitat models.
Antoine Guisan,Wilfried Thuiller +1 more
TL;DR: An overview of recent advances in species distribution models, and new avenues for incorporating species migration, population dynamics, biotic interactions and community ecology into SDMs at multiple spatial scales are suggested.
Journal ArticleDOI
Species Distribution Models: Ecological Explanation and Prediction Across Space and Time
Jane Elith,John R. Leathwick +1 more
TL;DR: Species distribution models (SDMs) as mentioned in this paper are numerical tools that combine observations of species occurrence or abundance with environmental estimates, and are used to gain ecological and evolutionary insights and to predict distributions across landscapes, sometimes requiring extrapolation in space and time.
Journal ArticleDOI
Some Demographic and Genetic Consequences of Environmental Heterogeneity for Biological Control
TL;DR: Effectiveness of any control program will depend on the different responses of the crop, pest, and control organism to this pattern of environment, which there are geographic, local, and temporal variations in the environment.
Related Papers (5)
Detailing Köppen–Geiger climate zones at sub‐national to continental scale: a resource for pest risk analysis
Alan MacLeod,A. Korycinska +1 more
Guidance on commodity risk assessment for the evaluation of high risk plants dossiers
Claude Bragard,Katharina Dehnen-Schmutz,Francesco Di Serio,Paolo Gonthier,Marie-Agnès Jacques,Josep Anton Jaques Miret,Annemarie Fejer Justesen,Alan MacLeod,Christer Sven Magnusson,Panagiotis Milonas,Juan A Navas-Cortes,Stephen Parnell,Philippe Lucien Reignault,Hans-Hermann Thulke,Wopke van der Werf,Antonio Vicent Civera,Jonathan Yuen,Lucia Zappalà,Michael Jeger,Ciro Gardi,Olaf Mosbach-Schulz,Stefano Preti,Maria Chiara Rosace,Giuseppe Stancanelli,Roel Potting +24 more
Guidance on the use of the weight of evidence approach in scientific assessments.
Anthony Hardy,Diane Benford,Thorhallur I. Halldorsson,Michael J. Jeger,Helle Katrine Knutsen,Simon J. More,Hanspeter Naegeli,Hubert Noteborn,Colin Ockleford,Antonia Ricci,Guido Rychen,Josef Rudolf Schlatter,Vittorio Silano,Roland Solecki,Dominique Turck,Emilio Benfenati,Qasim Chaudhry,Peter S. Craig,Geoff K Frampton,Matthias Greiner,Andrew Hart,Christer Hogstrand,Claude Lambré,Robert Luttik,David Makowski,Alfonso Siani,Helene Wahlstroem,Jaime Aguilera,Jean-Lou Dorne,Antonio Fernandez Dumont,Michaela Hempen,Silvia Valtueña Martínez,Laura Martino,Camilla Smeraldi,Andrea Terron,Nikolaos Georgiadis,Maged Younes +36 more