Journal ArticleDOI
Practical Extreme Value Modelling of Hydrological Floods and Droughts: A Case Study
TLDR
In this article, a stepwise procedure for estimating quantiles of the hydrological extremes floods and droughts is introduced based on daily streamflow observations, and the authors find that a seasonal variation should be included in the GEV distribution fitting for floods using block sizes less than one year.Abstract:
Estimation of flood and drought frequencies is important for reservoir design and management, river pollution, ecology and drinking water supply. Through an example based on daily streamflow observations, we introduce a stepwise procedure for estimating quantiles of the hydrological extremes floods and droughts. We fit the generalised extreme value (GEV) distribution by the method of block maxima and the generalised Pareto (GP) distribution by applying the peak over threshold method. Maximum likelihood, penalized maximum likelihood and probability weighted moments are used for parameter estimation. We incorporate trends and seasonal variation in the models instead of splitting the data, and investigate how the observed number of extreme events, the chosen statistical model, and the parameter estimation method effect parameter estimates and quantiles. We find that a seasonal variation should be included in the GEV distribution fitting for floods using block sizes less than one year. When modelling droughts, block sizes of one year or less are not recommended as significant model bias becomes visible. We conclude that the different characteristics of floods and droughts influence the choices made in the extreme value modelling within a common inferential strategy.read more
Citations
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Journal ArticleDOI
Global Changes in Drought Conditions Under Different Levels of Warming
Gustavo Naumann,Lorenzo Alfieri,Klaus Wyser,Lorenzo Mentaschi,Richard Betts,Richard Betts,Hugo Carrão,Jonathan Spinoni,Jürgen Vogt,Luc Feyen +9 more
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors assess how drought conditions may develop across the globe for 1.5, 2, and 3°C warming compared to pre-industrial temperatures and show that two thirds of global population will experience a progressive increase in drought conditions with warming.
Journal ArticleDOI
A process-based typology of hydrological drought
A.F. van Loon,H.A.J. van Lanen +1 more
TL;DR: In this article, the authors proposed a hydrological drought typology that is based on governing drought propagation processes derived from catchment-scale analysis, i.e., the interplay of temperature and precipitation at catchment scale in different seasons.
Journal ArticleDOI
A global evaluation of streamflow drought characteristics
TL;DR: In this paper, three different pooling procedures are evaluated: the moving-average procedure (MA-procedure), the inter-event time method (IT-method), and the sequent peak algorithm (SPA).
Journal ArticleDOI
Ensemble projections of future streamflow droughts in Europe
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors analyzed the effect of climate change on streamflow droughts across Europe and showed that the severity and severity of low-flow conditions may evolve throughout the 21st century.
Journal ArticleDOI
Impact of global warming on streamflow drought in Europe
Luc Feyen,Rutger Dankers +1 more
TL;DR: In this article, the authors examined the impact of global warming on streamflow drought in Europe by comparing low-flow predictions of a hydrological model driven by high-resolution regional climate simulations for the end of the previous century and for this century based on the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios A2 greenhouse gas emission scenario.
References
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Book
An introduction to the bootstrap
Bradley Efron,Robert Tibshirani +1 more
TL;DR: This article presents bootstrap methods for estimation, using simple arguments, with Minitab macros for implementing these methods, as well as some examples of how these methods could be used for estimation purposes.
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Anthony C. Davison,David Hinkley +1 more
TL;DR: In this paper, a broad and up-to-date coverage of bootstrap methods, with numerous applied examples, developed in a coherent way with the necessary theoretical basis, is given, along with a disk of purpose-written S-Plus programs for implementing the methods described in the text.
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TL;DR: In this paper, the authors used the representations of the noise currents given in Section 2.8 to derive some statistical properties of I(t) and its zeros and maxima.
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TL;DR: In this article, an approach to Extremes via Point Processes is presented, and statistical methods for Extremal Events are presented. But the approach is limited to time series analysis for heavy-tailed processes.
Journal ArticleDOI
Statistical Inference Using Extreme Order Statistics
TL;DR: In this article, a method for making statistical inferences about the upper tail of a distribution function is presented for estimating the probabilities of future extremely large observations, where the underlying distribution function satisfies a condition which holds for all common continuous distribution functions.
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