Predicting organismal vulnerability to climate warming: roles of behaviour, physiology and adaptation
Raymond B. Huey,Michael R. Kearney,Andrew K. Krockenberger,Joseph A. M. Holtum,Mellissa Jess,Stephen E. Williams +5 more
TLDR
It is concluded that ectotherms sharing vulnerability traits seem concentrated in lowland tropical forests and their vulnerability may be exacerbated by negative biotic interactions, as genetic and selective data are scant.Abstract:
A recently developed integrative framework proposes that the vulnerability of a species to environmental change depends on the species' exposure and sensitivity to environmental change, its resilience to perturbations and its potential to adapt to change. These vulnerability criteria require behavioural, physiological and genetic data. With this information in hand, biologists can predict organisms most at risk from environmental change. Biologists and managers can then target organisms and habitats most at risk. Unfortunately, the required data (e.g. optimal physiological temperatures) are rarely available. Here, we evaluate the reliability of potential proxies (e.g. critical temperatures) that are often available for some groups. Several proxies for ectotherms are promising, but analogous ones for endotherms are lacking. We also develop a simple graphical model of how behavioural thermoregulation, acclimation and adaptation may interact to influence vulnerability over time. After considering this model together with the proxies available for physiological sensitivity to climate change, we conclude that ectotherms sharing vulnerability traits seem concentrated in lowland tropical forests. Their vulnerability may be exacerbated by negative biotic interactions. Whether tropical forest (or other) species can adapt to warming environments is unclear, as genetic and selective data are scant. Nevertheless, the prospects for tropical forest ectotherms appear grim.read more
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Journal ArticleDOI
Thermal-safety margins and the necessity of thermoregulatory behavior across latitude and elevation
Jennifer M. Sunday,Jennifer M. Sunday,Amanda E. Bates,Amanda E. Bates,Michael R. Kearney,Robert K. Colwell,Robert K. Colwell,Nicholas K. Dulvy,John T. Longino,Raymond B. Huey +9 more
TL;DR: It is found that most terrestrial ectotherms are insufficiently tolerant of high temperatures to survive the warmest potential body temperatures in exposed habitats and must therefore thermoregulate by using shade, burrows, or evaporative cooling and show why heat-tolerance limits are relatively invariant in comparison with cold limits.
Journal ArticleDOI
Assessing species' vulnerability to climate change
Michela Pacifici,Michela Pacifici,Wendy Foden,Wendy Foden,Piero Visconti,Piero Visconti,James E. M. Watson,James E. M. Watson,James E. M. Watson,Stuart H. M. Butchart,Stuart H. M. Butchart,Kit M. Kovacs,Kit M. Kovacs,Brett R. Scheffers,Brett R. Scheffers,David G. Hole,David G. Hole,Tara G. Martin,Tara G. Martin,Tara G. Martin,H. Resit Akçakaya,H. Resit Akçakaya,Richard T. Corlett,Richard T. Corlett,Brian Huntley,Brian Huntley,David Bickford,David Bickford,Jamie Carr,Ary A. Hoffmann,Ary A. Hoffmann,Guy F. Midgley,Guy F. Midgley,Paul Pearce-Kelly,Paul Pearce-Kelly,Richard G. Pearson,Richard G. Pearson,Stephen E. Williams,Stephen E. Williams,Stephen G. Willis,Bruce E. Young,Bruce E. Young,Carlo Rondinini,Carlo Rondinini +43 more
TL;DR: In this article, three main approaches used to derive these currencies (correlative, mechanistic and trait-based) and their associated data requirements, spatial and temporal scales of application and modelling methods are described.
Journal ArticleDOI
Physiological plasticity increases resilience of ectothermic animals to climate change
TL;DR: Research synthesizing the current state of knowledge about physiological plasticity in ectotherms shows that freshwater and marine animals seem to have a greater capacity for acclimation than terrestrial ones.
Journal ArticleDOI
Plasticity in thermal tolerance has limited potential to buffer ectotherms from global warming.
TL;DR: This analysis indicates that behavioural and evolutionary mechanisms will be critical in allowing ectotherms to buffer themselves from extreme temperatures, and proposes that limited potential for behavioural plasticity favours the evolution of greater plasticity in physiological traits, consistent with the ‘Bogert effect’.
Journal ArticleDOI
Upper thermal limits in terrestrial ectotherms: how constrained are they?
TL;DR: Findings point to many terrestrial ectotherms having a limited potential to change their thermal limits particularly within the context of an average predicted temperature increase of 2–4 °C for mid-latitude populations over the next few decades.
References
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