Probabilistic Precipitation Anomalies Associated with ENSO

TLDR: In this paper, the percentage of times that seasonal precipitation over land areas was above, near, and below normal during the eight strongest El Nino and La Nina episodes are tabulated, and the significance levels of the posterior probabilities are calculated using the hypergeometric distribution.

Abstract: Extreme phases of the El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon have been blamed for precipitation anomalies in many areas of the world. In some areas the probability of above–normal precipitation may be increased during warm or cold events, while in others below–normal precipitation may be more likely. The percentages of times that seasonal precipitation over land areas was above, near, and below normal during the eight strongest El Nino and La Nina episodes are tabulated, and the significance levels of the posterior probabilities are calculated using the hypergeometric distribution. These frequencies may provide a useful starting point for probabilistic climate forecasts during strong ENSO events. Areas with significantly high or low frequencies or above– or below–normal precipitation are highlighted, and attempts are made to estimate the proportion of land areas with significant ENSO–related precipitation signals. There is a danger of overstating the global impact of ENSO events because o...