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Open AccessJournal ArticleDOI

Procyclicality in Basel II: Can we treat the disease without killing the patient?

TLDR
The authors showed that the marginal impact of introducing Basel II depends strongly on the extent to which market discipline leads banks to vary lending standards procyclically in the absence of binding regulation.
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This article is published in Journal of Financial Intermediation.The article was published on 2006-07-01 and is currently open access. It has received 460 citations till now. The article focuses on the topics: Basel II & Basel I.

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Capital Regulation, Risk-Taking and Monetary Policy: A Missing Link in the Transmission Mechanism?

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors argue that insufficient attention has so far been paid to the link between monetary policy and the perception and pricing of risk by economic agents - what might be termed the "risk-taking channel" of monetary policy.
Journal ArticleDOI

Capital regulation, risk-taking and monetary policy: A missing link in the transmission mechanism?

TL;DR: In this article, the authors argue that insufficient attention has so far been paid to the link between monetary policy and the perception and pricing of risk by economic agents, what might be termed the "risk-taking channel" of monetary policy.
Posted Content

Credit Cycles, Credit Risk, and Prudential Regulation

TL;DR: In this article, the authors found strong empirical support of a positive, although quite lagged, relationship between rapid credit growth and loan losses, and provided empirical evidence of more lenient credit terms during boom periods, both in terms of screening of borrowers and in collateral requirements.
Journal ArticleDOI

The Procyclical Effects of Bank Capital Regulation

TL;DR: In this article, the authors assess the procyclical effects of bank capital regulation in a dynamic equilibrium model of relationship lending in which banks are unable to access the equity markets every period.
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How to Deal with Real Estate Booms: Lessons from Country Experiences

TL;DR: In this article, the authors spell out the circumstances under which a more active policy agenda on this front would be justified and offer tentative insights on the pros and cons as well as implementation challenges of various policy tools that can be used to contain the damage to the financial system and the economy from real estate boom-bust episodes.
References
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Journal ArticleDOI

On the pricing of corporate debt: the risk structure of interest rates

TL;DR: In this article, the American Finance Association Meeting, New York, December 1973, presented an abstract of a paper entitled "The Future of Finance: A Review of the State of the Art".
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A Markov Model for the Term Structure of Credit Risk Spreads

TL;DR: In this article, a Markov model for the term structure of credit risk spreads is proposed, based on Jarrow and Turnbull (1995), with the bankruptcy process following a discrete state space Markov chain in credit ratings.
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Rating Banks: Risk and Uncertainty in an Opaque Industry

TL;DR: This paper found that bond raters are inherently more opaque than other firms, and that they split more frequently over these financial intermediaries, and the splits are more lopsided, as theory here predicts.
Posted Content

Procyclicality of the financial system and financial stability: Issues and policy options

Abstract: In recent decades, developments in the financial sector have played a major role in shaping macroeconomic outcomes in a wide range of countries. Financial developments have reinforced the momentum of underlying economic cycles, and in some cases have led to extreme swings in economic activity and a complete breakdown in the normal linkages between savers and investors. These experiences have led to concerns that the financial system is excessively procyclical, unnecessarily amplifying swings in the real economy. In turn, these concerns have prompted calls for changes in prudential regulation, accounting standards, risk measurement practices and the conduct of monetary policy in an attempt to enhance both financial system and macroeconomic stability.
Journal ArticleDOI

Rating Banks: Risk and Uncertainty in an Opaque Industry

TL;DR: The authors found that bond raters are inherently more opaque than other types of firms, such as banks and insurance firms, and that uncertainty over the banks stems from certain assets, loans and trading assets in particular.
Frequently Asked Questions (11)
Q1. What is the effect of reducing capital charges on high (low) risk portfolios?

Relative to the economic capital benchmark, a modest dampening of volatility is achieved by reducing (increasing) capital charges on high (low) risk portfolios. 

The implication in their context is that the KMV matrix will generate much more cyclicality in capital charges than a more stable rating agency matrix. 

Heavy-handed flattening of the capital formula might better succeed in dampening procyclicality, but also would distort relative capital charges across loans (and do so at every point in the business cycle). 

One simple method for generating a smoothed regulatory requirement Ĉit from the Cit is to apply an autoregressive (AR) filter:Ĉi,t = Ĉi,t−1 + α · (Ci,t − Ĉi,t−1). 

as through-the-cycle ratings are less sensitive to market conditions than point-in-time ratings, they are less useful for active portfolio management and as inputs to ratings-based pricing models such as Jarrow, Lando and Turnbull (1997). 

This was motivated partly by the belief that smaller firms tend to be both higher in PD and lower in ρ than larger firms, which would implies a negative cross-sectional correlation between PD and ρ. 

Their primary objective in the simulations is to explore the behavior of smoothing rules that are applied directly to the output of an unmodified IRB capital function. 

Because it depends only on the bank’s own time-series of IRB capital requirements, it does not disadvantage banks operating in local markets with business cycles distinct from the overall national market. 

The average (across banks) of the standard deviation of regulatory capital across time is 0.90% for CP3–PIT, and only 0.53% and 0.46% for the AR and CC smoothing rules, respectively. 

Some proposals call for dampening the inputs (that is, the PDs), some call for modifying the machinery (that is, by flattening the capital formula), and some call for dampening the outputs (that is, by loosening the relationship between the IRB capital formula and the required regulatory minimum). 

the two series track very closely, which suggests that little harm is done to the CP3–PIT capital requirement as a signal for changes in portfolio risk over time.