Range Expansion of Barred Owls, Part II: Facilitating Ecological Changes

TLDR: Overall, it appears the historical lack of trees in the Great Plains acted as a barrier to the range expansion and recent increases in forests broke down this barrier and allowed Barred Owls to move westward.

Abstract: In Part I (Livezey, 2009), I presented the chronology and distribution of the range expansion of Barred Owls (Strix varia) from the late 1800s to the present. Here I explore what had prevented Barred Owls from expanding their range westward during recent millennia and what allowed them to do so during the past century. Using strength-of-evidence analysis, I evaluate the plausibility of the five ecological or behavioral changes proposed in the literature to have facilitated the range expansion. From this evaluation, three of these changes appear to be implausible, one appears to be plausible after modifying its location, and one appears to be very plausible. For the very plausible one, I score seven ecological changes that may have affected it using five strength-of-evidence criteria. Overall, it appears the historical lack of trees in the Great Plains acted as a barrier to the range expansion and recent increases in forests broke down this barrier. Increases in forest distribution along the Misso...