Journal ArticleDOI
Revised Models of the "Rally Phenomenon": The Case of the Carter Presidency
Karen J. Callaghan,Simo Virtanen +1 more
TLDR
In this article, the authors report an examination of presidential approval ratings during the Iran hostage crisis and find that the crisis precipitated a "rally-round-theflag" effect for President Carter.Abstract:
This research note reports an examination of presidential approval ratings during the Iran hostage crisis. Models of intervention and transfer function are estimated by way of Box-Jenkins and Box-Tiao analysis using Gallup opinion data from January 1976 to December 1979. Although it is fairly well accepted that the hostage crisis precipitated a "rally-round-the-flag" effect for President Carter, an examination of popularity dynamics reveals the unique influence of the crisis on Independents, a finding that suggests the need to revise the traditional view of the rally phenomenon.read more
Citations
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Journal ArticleDOI
Anatomy of a rally effect: George W. Bush and the war on terrorism
TL;DR: The "rally-round-the-flag effect" is defined as the sudden and substantial increase in public approval of the president that occurs in response to certain kinds of dramatic international events involving the United States.
Journal ArticleDOI
Patriotism or Opinion Leadership? The Nature and Origins of the “Rally 'Round the Flag” Effect
William D. Baker,John R. Oneal +1 more
TL;DR: In this paper, the "rally effect" of the American public to put aside political differences and support the president during international crises is measured by considering the chanathan effect.
Journal ArticleDOI
The rally 'round the flag effect in U.S. foreign policy crises, 1950–1985
John R. Oneal,Anna Lillian Bryan +1 more
TL;DR: This paper calculated the rally 'round the flag effect for all 41 U.S. foreign policy crises, 1950-1985, identified by the International Crisis Behavior Project (Wilkenfeld, Brecher, and Moser, 1988).
Journal ArticleDOI
Politics at the Water's Edge: Parties, Voters, and the Use of Force Abroad
TL;DR: In this article, the effects of party politics and presidential election cycles on U.S. recourse to force abroad were examined and a game-theoretic model was proposed to generate predictions about these effects.
References
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Journal ArticleDOI
Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation and Testing
TL;DR: The relationship between co-integration and error correction models, first suggested in Granger (1981), is here extended and used to develop estimation procedures, tests, and empirical examples.
Book
Time series analysis, forecasting and control
TL;DR: In this article, a complete revision of a classic, seminal, and authoritative book that has been the model for most books on the topic written since 1970 is presented, focusing on practical techniques throughout, rather than a rigorous mathematical treatment of the subject.
Journal ArticleDOI
Time Series Analysis Forecasting and Control
TL;DR: This revision of a classic, seminal, and authoritative book explores the building of stochastic models for time series and their use in important areas of application forecasting, model specification, estimation, and checking, transfer function modeling of dynamic relationships, modeling the effects of intervention events, and process control.
Journal ArticleDOI
Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control
TL;DR: Time Series Analysis and Forecasting: principles and practice as mentioned in this paper The Oxford Handbook of Quantitative Methods, Vol. 3, No. 2: Statistical AnalysisTime-Series ForecastingPractical Time-Series AnalysisApplied Bayesian Forecasting and Time Series AnalysisSAS for Forecasting Time SeriesApplied Time Series analysisTime Series analysisElements of Nonlinear Time Series analyses and forecastingTime series analysis and forecasting by Example.