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Open AccessJournal ArticleDOI

Some Macroeconomics for the 21st Century

Robert E. Lucas
- 01 Feb 2000 - 
- Vol. 14, Iss: 1, pp 159-168
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TLDR
In this paper, a simplified version of Tamura's model of world income dynamics based on technology diffusion is presented, which makes predictions for trends in average world income growth and about the evolution of the relative income distribution that accord well with observation.
Abstract
This note describes a numerical simulation of a model of economic growth, a simplified version of Robert Tamura's (1996) model of world income dynamics, based on technology diffusion. The model makes predictions for trends in average world income growth and about the evolution of the relative income distribution that accord well with observation. The model is used to forecast the course of world income growth and income inequality over the century to come.

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The Role of Agriculture in Development

TL;DR: The authors argue that a model of structural transformation provides a useful theory of both why industrialization occurs at different dates and why it proceeds slowly, and a key implication of this model is that growth in agricultural productivity is central to development.
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Inequality in Landownership, the Emergence of Human-Capital Promoting Institutions, and the Great Divergence

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors suggest that inequality in the distribution of landownership adversely affected the emergence of human-capital promoting institutions (e.g. public schooling), and thus the pace and the nature of the transition from an agricultural to an industrial economy, contributing to the divergence in income per capita across countries.
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Agriculture and aggregate productivity: A quantitative cross-country analysis ☆

TL;DR: In this article, a decomposition of aggregate labor productivity based on internationally comparable data reveals that a high share of employment and low labor productivity in agriculture are mainly responsible for low aggregate productivity in poor countries.
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The Role of the Structural Transformation in Aggregate Productivity

TL;DR: In this article, the authors investigate the role of sectoral differences in labor productivity in explaining the process of structural transformation and the time path of aggregate productivity across countries, and find that productivity catch-up in industry explains about 50 percent of the gains in aggregate productivity.
Book

Annual World Bank Conference on Development Economics 1997

TL;DR: The 1999 Annual World Bank Conference on Development Economics, the eleventh anniversary, was held at the Bank on April 28-30, 1999 as discussed by the authors, which focused on three trends of development: 1) the emerging international financial architecture; 2) challenges to social development; and 3) lessons from a decade of transition.
References
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Journal ArticleDOI

A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth

TL;DR: In this paper, a model of long run growth is proposed and examples of possible growth patterns are given. But the model does not consider the long run of the economy and does not take into account the characteristics of interest and wage rates.
Posted Content

The Penn World Table (Mark 5): An Expanded Set of International Comparisons, 1950-1987

TL;DR: The Penn World Table as discussed by the authors is a set of national accounts economic time series covering many countries and its expenditure entries are denominated in common set of prices in a common currency so that real quantity comparisons can be made, both between countries and over time.
Journal ArticleDOI

The Penn World Table (Mark 5): An Expanded Set of International Comparisons, 1950–1988

TL;DR: The Penn World Table as discussed by the authors is a set of national accounts economic time series covering many countries and its expenditure entries are denominated in common set of prices in a common currency so that real quantity comparisons can be made, both between countries and over time.
Journal ArticleDOI

Empirics for Growth and Distribution: Stratification, Polarization, and Convergence Clubs

TL;DR: This paper studied cross-country patterns of economic growth from the viewpoint of income distribution dynamics and found that the profound empirical regularity is an emerging twin peaks in the cross-sectional distribution, not simple patterns of convergence or divergence.
Journal ArticleDOI

Divergence, Big Time

TL;DR: In the last century, incomes in the less developed countries have fallen far behind those in the "developed" countries, both proportionately and absolutely as discussed by the authors, and this divergence is the result of very different patterns in the long-run economic performance of two sets of countries.
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