Book ChapterDOI
Theories and models of climate-security interaction: Framework and application to a climate hot spot in North Africa
Jürgen Scheffran,P. Michael Link,Janpeter Schilling +2 more
- pp 91-132
TLDR
In its fourth assessment report (AR4), the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) addressed serious risks that could undermine the living conditions of people all over the world as discussed by the authors.Abstract:
In its Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) addresses serious risks that could undermine the living conditions of people all over the world (IPCC 2007). Impacts on food and water availability, flood and storm disasters, and large-scale events such as loss of the monsoon, breakdown of the thermohaline circulation, polar ice melting, or sea level rise could affect a considerable fraction of the global population. After publication of this report a number of studies suggested that the struggle for food and water, the impact of natural disasters, and large-scale migration could pose security risks that would destabilize social systems and aggravate existing conflicts. These concerns inspired a debate on the securitization of climate change (Waever 1995; Brauch 2009b). The IPCC reports did not focus on the links between climate change, security, and conflict (IPCC 2007; Nordas/ Gleditsch 2009), although statements by IPCC Chair Rajendra Pachauri upon acceptance of the Nobel Peace Prize suggest such a linkage. In its planned fifth assessment report, the IPCC will include a chapter on the human security dimensions of climate change.read more
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Journal ArticleDOI
Raiding pastoral livelihoods: motives and effects of violent conflict in north-western Kenya
TL;DR: In this article, focus group discussions and interviews with 376 members of the Turkana and Pokot communities and key informants were carried out with the aim of elucidating the motives behind the current livestock raiding, and analyzing how conflict affects livelihoods of pastoral communities.
Journal ArticleDOI
Climate change impacts in the Middle East and Northern Africa (MENA) region and their implications for vulnerable population groups
Katharina Waha,Katharina Waha,Linda Krummenauer,Sophie Adams,Valentin Aich,Florent Baarsch,Florent Baarsch,Dim Coumou,Marianela Fader,Holger Hoff,Holger Hoff,Guy Jobbins,Rachel Marcus,Matthias Mengel,Ilona M. Otto,Ilona M. Otto,Mahé Perrette,Marcia Rocha,Alexander Robinson,Alexander Robinson,Alexander Robinson,Carl-Friedrich Schleussner +21 more
TL;DR: In this paper, a synthesis of peer-reviewed literature from 2010 to date and own modeling work on biophysical impacts of climate change on selected sectors shows that the region is highly affected by present and future climate change.
Journal ArticleDOI
Disentangling the Climate-conflict Nexus: Empirical and Theoretical Assessment of Vulnerabilities and Pathways
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors compare the results, methodologies, and data applied in the peer-reviewed literature to recap the current state of the debate on the relationship between climate change and violent conflict.
Journal ArticleDOI
Climate Change and Collective Violence.
TL;DR: Public health professionals can help prevent collective violence due to climate change by supporting mitigation measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, promoting adaptation measures to address the consequences of climate change and to improve community resilience.
BookDOI
Climate Change, Security Risks and Conflict Reduction in Africa
Abstract: According to the leading expert body on climate change, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), evidence of global warming and climate change is increasing, and the severity of impacts will rise accordingly. The International Disaster Database (EM–DAT) estimates that over 22 million people were affected by natural disasters in West Africa in 2010–2011. Climate change is likely to translate into more frequent and severe weather-related shocks for this region alongside rising temperatures and increasingly irregular rainfall (IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report, 2007 and Fifth Assessment Report, 2014). These environmental impacts of climate change pose a challenge to vulnerable societies by, among other factors, reducing water availability (by up to 40 % of current levels) and disturbing food production systems. They are consequently very likely to contribute to the destabilization of the human security of vulnerable communities, endangering the ways of life of human beings and inducing conflicts. A surge in conflicts and violence could be expected. In West Africa, farmers and herders belong to the most vulnerable groups, as they are highly dependent on natural resources and historically prone to come into conflict with each other. Increasing climate change could lead them to compete violently over natural resources such as land and water. This book consequently focuses on conflicts between farmers and herders living in the climate-change-impacted area of West Africa. This study relies on the rich scholarly literature on the linkages between environment and conflict, human and environmental security, conflict reduction, and the management of common-pool resources. Drawing on these theories, the study demonstrates that, under certain circumstances, climate change can destabilize human security and that the agro-pastoral communities of West Africa are likely to experience such security threats. However, fundamental importance is given to the social, economic and political factors mediating environmental changes. It is argued that these factors underpin the occurrence and level of conflict. Their influence on conflict escalation is broadly recognized, but this research shows that political factors also contribute to reducing conflict. It is thus proposed that political factors (policies and institutions) can reduce climate-change-induced or -aggravated conflicts between farmers and herders. The explanatory potential of this thesis is tested against three hypotheses: (1) the implementation of integration policies by the central state reduces conflict; (2) equitable access to land tenure reduces conflict; and (3) a decentralized and participative political system reduces conflict. In order to determine if political factors can reduce agro-pastoral conflicts, a qualitative case study of conflicts between FulBe pastoralists and various groups of sedentary farmers is conducted over a timespan of forty years (1960-2000) for three neighbouring countries of West Africa: Burkina Faso, Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana. The analysis confirms that political
References
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Posted Content
A Theory of Fads, Fashion, Custom, and Cultural Change as Informational Cascades
TL;DR: It is argued that localized conformity of behavior and the fragility of mass behaviors can be explained by informational cascades.