Journal ArticleDOI
Use of niche models in invasive species risk assessments.
Alberto Jiménez-Valverde,Alberto Jiménez-Valverde,Andrew Townsend Peterson,Jorge Soberón,J. M. Overton,Pedro Aragón,Jorge M. Lobo +6 more
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TLDR
This work highlights that, in the case of invasive species, distributional predictions should aim to derive the best hypothesis of the potential distribution of the species by using all distributional information available, including information from both the native range and other invaded regions.Abstract:
Risk maps summarizing landscape suitability of novel areas for invading species can be valuable tools for preventing species’ invasions or controlling their spread, but methods employed for development of such maps remain variable and unstandardized. We discuss several considerations in development of such models, including types of distributional information that should be used, the nature of explanatory variables that should be incorporated, and caveats regarding model testing and evaluation. We highlight that, in the case of invasive species, such distributional predictions should aim to derive the best hypothesis of the potential distribution of the species by using (1) all distributional information available, including information from both the native range and other invaded regions; (2) predictors linked as directly as is feasible to the physiological requirements of the species; and (3) modelling procedures that carefully avoid overfitting to the training data. Finally, model testing and evaluation should focus on well-predicted presences, and less on efficient prediction of absences; a k-fold regional cross-validation test is discussed.read more
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Making better Maxent models of species distributions: complexity, overfitting and evaluation
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors integrate solutions to these issues for Maxent models, using the Caribbean spiny pocket mouse, Heteromys anomalus, as an example, by selecting appropriate evaluation data, detecting overfitting and tuning program settings to approximate optimal model complexity.
Journal ArticleDOI
Uses and misuses of bioclimatic envelope modeling
TL;DR: Critics of bioclimatic envelope models are reviewed to suggest that criticism has often been misplaced, resulting from confusion between what the models actually deliver and what users wish that they would express.
Journal ArticleDOI
Mapping species distributions with MAXENT using a geographically biased sample of presence data: a performance assessment of methods for correcting sampling bias.
TL;DR: The ability of methods to correct the initial sampling bias varied greatly depending on bias type, bias intensity and species, but the simple systematic sampling of records consistently ranked among the best performing across the range of conditions tested, whereas other methods performed more poorly in most cases.
Journal ArticleDOI
Will climate change promote future invasions
Céline Bellard,Wilfried Thuiller,Boris Leroy,Piero Genovesi,Michel Bakkenes,Franck Courchamp +5 more
TL;DR: Using ensemble forecasts from species distribution models to project future suitable areas of the 100 of the world's worst invasive species, it is shown that both climate and land use changes will likely cause drastic species range shifts.
Journal ArticleDOI
Minimum required number of specimen records to develop accurate species distribution models
TL;DR: A novel method using simulated species to identify the minimum number of records required to generate accurate SDMs for taxa of different pre-defined prevalence classes is presented, which is applicable to any taxonomic clade or group, study area or climate scenario.
References
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Very high resolution interpolated climate surfaces for global land areas.
Robert J. Hijmans,Susan E. Cameron,Susan E. Cameron,Juan L. Parra,Peter G. Jones,Andy Jarvis +5 more
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors developed interpolated climate surfaces for global land areas (excluding Antarctica) at a spatial resolution of 30 arc s (often referred to as 1-km spatial resolution).
Journal ArticleDOI
Maximum entropy modeling of species geographic distributions
TL;DR: In this paper, the use of the maximum entropy method (Maxent) for modeling species geographic distributions with presence-only data was introduced, which is a general-purpose machine learning method with a simple and precise mathematical formulation.
Journal ArticleDOI
Novel methods improve prediction of species' distributions from occurrence data
Jane Elith,Catherine H. Graham,Robert P. Anderson,Miroslav Dudík,Simon Ferrier,Antoine Guisan,Robert J. Hijmans,Falk Huettmann,John R. Leathwick,Anthony Lehmann,Jin Li,Lúcia G. Lohmann,Bette A. Loiselle,Glenn Manion,Craig Moritz,Miguel Nakamura,Yoshinori Nakazawa,Jacob C. M. Mc Overton,A. Townsend Peterson,Steven J. Phillips,Karen Richardson,Ricardo Scachetti-Pereira,Robert E. Schapire,Jorge Soberón,Stephen E. Williams,Mary S. Wisz,Niklaus E. Zimmermann +26 more
TL;DR: This work compared 16 modelling methods over 226 species from 6 regions of the world, creating the most comprehensive set of model comparisons to date and found that presence-only data were effective for modelling species' distributions for many species and regions.
Journal ArticleDOI
Predictive habitat distribution models in ecology
TL;DR: A review of predictive habitat distribution modeling is presented, which shows that a wide array of models has been developed to cover aspects as diverse as biogeography, conservation biology, climate change research, and habitat or species management.
Journal ArticleDOI
Sources, Sinks, and Population Regulation
TL;DR: If the surplus population of the source is large and the per capita deficit in the sink is small, only a small fraction of the total population will occur in areas where local reproduction is sufficient to compensate for local mortality, and the realized niche may be larger than the fundamental niche.
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