Journal ArticleDOI
Use of the “Odds Ratio” for Diagnosing Forecast Skill
TLDR
In this paper, the authors investigated ways of quantifying the skill in forecasts of dichotomous weather events using the odds ratio, widely used in medical studies, which can provide a powerful way of testing the association between categorical forecasts and observations.Abstract:
This study investigates ways of quantifying the skill in forecasts of dichotomous weather events. The odds ratio, widely used in medical studies, can provide a powerful way of testing the association between categorical forecasts and observations. A skill score can be constructed from the odds ratio that is less sensitive to hedging than previously used scores. Furthermore, significance tests can easily be performed on the logarithm of the odds ratio to test whether the skill is purely due to chance sampling. Functions of the odds ratio and the Peirce skill score define a general class of skill scores that are symmetric with respect to taking the complement of the event. The study illustrates the ideas using Finley’s classic set of tornado forecasts.read more
Citations
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Book ChapterDOI
A User’s Guide
TL;DR: This table lists the most common surnames in the United States used to be Anglicised as "United States", then changed to "United Kingdom" in the 1990s.
BookDOI
Forecast verification: a practitioner's guide in atmospheric science
TL;DR: Jolliffe et al. as mentioned in this paper proposed a framework for verification of spatial fields based on binary and categorical events, and proved the correctness of the proposed framework with past, present and future predictions.
Journal ArticleDOI
Precipitation downscaling under climate change: Recent developments to bridge the gap between dynamical models and the end user
Douglas Maraun,Douglas Maraun,Fredrik Wetterhall,Andrew Ireson,Richard E. Chandler,Elizabeth J. Kendon,Martin Widmann,S. Brienen,S. Brienen,Henning W. Rust,Tobias Sauter,M. Themeßl,Victor Venema,Kwok Pan Chun,Clare Goodess,Richard G. Jones,Christian Onof,Mathieu Vrac,I. Thiele-Eich +18 more
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors integrate perspectives from meteorologists, climatologists, statisticians, and hydrologists to identify generic end user (in particular, impact modeler) needs and to discuss downscaling capabilities and gaps.
Journal ArticleDOI
Recommendations for the quantitative analysis of landslide risk
Jordi Corominas,C.J. van Westen,Paolo Frattini,Leonardo Cascini,Jean-Philippe Malet,Stavroula Fotopoulou,Filippo Catani,M. van den Eeckhaut,Olga Mavrouli,Federico Agliardi,Kyriazis Pitilakis,Mike G. Winter,Manuel Pastor,Settimio Ferlisi,Veronica Tofani,Javier Hervás,J.T. Smith +16 more
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present recommended methodologies for the quantitative analysis of landslide hazard, vulnerability and risk at different spatial scales (site-specific, local, regional and national), as well as for the verification and validation of the results.
Book ChapterDOI
Chapter 8 - Forecast Verification
TL;DR: Forecast quality is evaluated through examination and manipulation of the joint frequency distribution of forecasts and their corresponding observations to diagnose various strengths and weaknesses in a set of forecasts.
References
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Book
Signal detection theory and psychophysics
David M. Green,John A. Swets +1 more
TL;DR: This book discusses statistical decision theory and sensory processes in signal detection theory and psychophysics and describes how these processes affect decision-making.
Journal ArticleDOI
Measuring the accuracy of diagnostic systems
TL;DR: For diagnostic systems used to distinguish between two classes of events, analysis in terms of the "relative operating characteristic" of signal detection theory provides a precise and valid measure of diagnostic accuracy.
Book
An introduction to categorical data analysis
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors present a tour of categorical data analysis for Contingency Tables and Logit and Loglinear models for contingency tables, as well as generalized linear models for Matched Pairs.
Book
Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences
TL;DR: The second edition of "Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences, Second Edition" as mentioned in this paper presents and explains techniques used in atmospheric data summarization, analysis, testing, and forecasting.
Book
Detection Theory: A User's Guide
TL;DR: This book discusses Detection and Discrimination of Compound Stimuli: Tools for Multidimensional Detection Theory and Multi-Interval Discrimination Designs and Adaptive Methods for Estimating Empirical Thresholds.