Showing papers on "Economic interdependence published in 2003"

Causes of Peace: Democracy, Interdependence, and International Organizations, 1885–1992

Abstract: Previous studies provide strong evidence for the Kantian theory of peace, but a satisfactory evaluation requires establishing the causal influence of the variables. Here we focus on the reciprocal relations between economic interdependence and interstate conflict, 1885–1992. Using distributed-lags analyses, we find that economically important trade does have a substantively important effect in reducing dyadic militarized disputes, even with extensive controls for the influence of past conflict. The benefit of interdependence is particularly great in the case of conflict involving military fatalities. Militarized disputes also cause a reduction in trade, as liberal theory predicts. Democracy and joint membership in intergovernmental organizations, too, have important pacific benefits; but we find only limited support for the role of costly signals in establishing the liberal peace. We find no evidence that democratization increases the incidence of interstate disputes; and contrary to realists' expectations, allies are not less conflict prone than states that are not allied. Democracies and states that share membership in many international organizations have higher levels of trade, but allies do not when these influences are held constant.

Economic Interdependence and International Conflict: New Perspectives on an Enduring Debate

Abstract: The claim that open trade promotes peace has sparked heated debate among scholars and policymakers for centuries Until recently, however, this claim remained untested and largely unexplored Economic Interdependence and International Conflict clarifies the state of current knowledge about the effects of foreign commerce on political-military relations and identifies the avenues of new research needed to improve our understanding of this relationship The contributions to this volume offer crucial insights into the political economy of national security, the causes of war, and the politics of global economic relations Edward D Mansfield is Hum Rosen Professor of Political Science and Co-Director of the Christopher H Browne Center for International Politics at the University of Pennsylvania Brian M Pollins is Associate Professor of Political Science at Ohio State University and a Research Fellow at the Mershon Center

How the Wealth of Nations Conditions the Liberal Peace

Abstract: Over the past decade the liberal peace—the finding that democracy and economic interdependence contribute to peace among nations—has emerged as one of the strongest and most important results in the scientific study of international relations. Recent research indicates, however, that the pacific benefits of democracy and interdependence may not be unconditional but contingent upon the wealth of nations. We assess the independent and conditional influences of democracy, interdependence and economic development on the likelihood of fatal militarized disputes over the period 1885 to 1992. Economically important trade has an independent, substantively important pacifying effect, but the conflict-reducing effect of democracy depends on the level of economic development. If the less developed state in a dyad has a per capita GDP below 1400USD, joint democracy is not a significant force for peace. Our results indicate that the vast majority of past research on the democratic peace is imperfectly specified becaus...

Information and Economic Interdependence

Abstract: The pacifying effect of economic interdependence on conflict onset can be better understood in the context of "noisy" bargaining. Specifically, trading states bargain under less noisy conditions and, as a result, are unlikely to engage in militarized conflict. Noise is introduced into a generic take-it-or-leave-it bargaining game in the form of nonspecific asymmetric information about the defender's reservation value. Comparative statics show a positive monotonic relationship between variance in the noise term and the onset of militarized conflict. The relationships among economic interdependence, variance in the noise term, and conflict onset are evaluated with a Bayesian heteroskedastic probit model. Historical data are used to demonstrate that interdependence and uncertainty are related to each other and jointly related to the onset of militarized conflict. Uncertainty appears to be reduced by economic interdependence, and this leads to an enhanced probability of agreement short of a militarized clash.

Economic Exit, Interdependence, and Conflict

Abstract: This article examines the question of whether economic interdependence constrains or motivates interstate conflict. The theoretical model predicts when and how interdependence influences conflict, using exit costs to separate economic interdependence from less binding economic interaction. Analysis of the model suggests that when exit costs exceed an endurance threshold for at least one state, the threat of exit becomes a viable but limited bargaining tool. Exceeding this threshold increases low-level conflict as states use economic and diplomatic tools to resolve demands, but it decreases high-level conflict because states take advantage of more efficient means of dispute resolution. If the stakes are too high, however, exit costs fail to check conflict, and the economic relationship becomes an ineffective bargaining arena. Empirical analysis provides support for the hypotheses derived from the model.

Globalization and Health at the United States–Mexico Border

Abstract: Objectives. We studied the impact of globalization on the making of health policy. Globalization is understood as economic interdependence among nations. The North American Free Trade Agreement is used as a marker to assess the effects of economic interdependence on binational health cooperation along the United States–Mexico border. Methods. We observed participants and conducted in-depth interviews with policymakers, public health specialists, representatives of professional organizations, and unions. Results. Globalization has not promoted binational health policy cooperation. Barriers that keep US and Mexican policymakers apart prevail while health problems that do not recognize international borders go unresolved. Conclusions. If international health problems are to be solved, political, cultural, and social interdependence need to be built with the same impetus by which policymakers promote international trade.

Telemarketing and the Changing Nature of Professional Crime

Abstract: New opportunities for crimes of acquisition grew significantly in the second half of the twentieth century, but the criminological consequences of this development are poorly charted. We examine offenders who have stepped forward to exploit one category of the new opportunities. Drawing from interviews with 47 criminal telemarketers, we present a picture and interpretation of them, their pursuits and their lifestyles. Ai vocational predators, they share several important characteristics with the professional thieves sketched by earlier generations of investigators. Like the latter, they pursue a hedonistic lifestyle featuring illiât drugs and conspicuous consumption, and they acquire and employ an ideology of legitimation and defence that insulates them from moral rejection. Unlike professional thieves, however, telemarketing criminals disproportionately are drawn from middle class, entrepreneurial backgrounds. They are markedly individualistic in their dealings with one another and with law enforcement. Finally, their work organizations are more permanent and conventional in outward appearance than the criminal organizations created by blue-collar offenders, which were grounded in the culture of the industrial proletariat. Our findings show how the backgrounds and pursuits of vocational predators reflect the qualities and challenges of contem porary lucrative criminal opportunities. Like the markets that they seek to manipulate and plunder, the enacted environments of professional criminals embrace infinite variations, and are largely indistinguishable from the arenas that capacitate legitimate entrepreneurial pursuits. Writing at the dawn of the twentieth century, E. A. Ross (1907: 3) was one of the first sociologists to call attention to the fact that crime 'changes its quality as society develops. ' Ross focused specifically on growing social and economic interdependence and the variety of ways this permits both exploitation of trust and the commission of crime at a distance from victims. The transformative social and economic changes he noted only gained speed as the century progressed. In the United States and other Western nations, the middle decades of the century saw the emergence or the expansion of state policies and corporate practices with enormous criminological significance. These include a fundamental shift in the state's public welfare functions, which had the effect of expanding programmes and subsidies for citizens across the income spectrum. One measure of this is the fact that by 1992,51.7 per cent of American families received some form of federal payments, ranging from social security, Medicare and military retirement benefits to agricultural subsidies (Samuelson 1995: 158).

Stirring Samurai, Disapproving Dragon: japan's Growing Security Activity and Sino-Japan Relations

Abstract: : Japan-China relations are often described as an uneasy mix of uniting and dividing issues. Upon the 30-year anniversary of the normalization of Sino-Japanese relations in 2002, Japan's Yomiuri Shimbun noted that many Japanese felt "Japan-China relations are at their worst since normalization," while in China an opinion poll showed that half of respondents believed relations with Japan were "not good" and only 22 percent said relations were "good." These indications of poor Sino-Japanese relations take place, curiously, amidst a thriving bilateral economic relationship and a region-wide Chinese peace and reassurance offensive. Observers note that Notwithstanding the close and significant economic interdependence between China and Japan, there is no corresponding spillover into social, intellectual or security engagement, and that "intensifying rivalry is crowding out the positive aspects of bilateral ties." There is a growing asymmetry developing between Chinese society, in which young people as well as old remain unwilling to accept Japan as a "normal country" (largely because the Chinese government has continually published stories of Japanese wartime brutality through the media and education system over the last half century) and Japanese society, in which younger generations born since the end of World War II are decreasingly sympathetic to attempts to constrain Japan due to the "history issue." This generational change is reflected in Japan's leadership. Japanese politicians such as Tanaka Kakuei and Nonaka Hiromu, who previously worked with some success to build personal ties with Chinese leaders that helped stabilize the bilateral relationship, are being replaced by the likes of current Prime Minister Koizumi Junichiro, who is clearly less averse to angering China. There are many implications of these changes, but one of the most important consequences is that China-Japan security relations will remain tense in the future.

Trade and spatial economic interdependence

Abstract: Regional scientists have had a long fascination with spatial economic interdependence, initially stimulated by the development of a suite of models in Isard (1960). In recent years there have been two major developments; first, a movement towards greater integration in model development not only with large-scale models, but also with careful attempts to make more components of the system endogenous. The second development has been the pursuit of greater integration than in earlier studies between theory and applied regional economic modelling, most notably in the area of trade and economic development. We explore some of the recent developments of this latter approach and provide an assessment of the current state-of-the art of some future opportunities.

Making The International: Economic Interdependence and Political Order

Abstract: Book 1 Making the International: Economic Interdependence and Political Order Chapter 1 Economic interdependence and political order: introducing international political economy (Simon Bromley, Maureen Mackintosh, William Brown and Marc Wuyts) Part 1 Trade and states Chapter 2 Playing by the rules? Developing countries in the world trade regime (Aditya Bhattacharjea) Chapter 3 Gaining from trade? (Maureen Mackintosh) Chapter 4 Who makes the rules? The politics of developing country participation and influence in the WTO (Amrita Narlika) Chapter 5 International politics: states, anarchy and governance (Simon Bromley) Part 2 Making state policy Chapter 6 The politics of liberalization in India (Sudipta Kaviraj) Chapter 7 Trade policy, industrialization and growth in India (Suma Athreye) Part 3 Inequality and power Chapter 8 Labour and free trade: Mexico within NAFTA (Carlos Salas Paez and George Callaghan) Chapter 9 Power among states: Mexico's membership of NAFTA (Rafael Sanchez) Part 4 Autonomy, sovereignty and macroeconomic policy Chapter 10 Can Africa have developmental states? (Thandika Mkandawire) Chapter 11 Macroeconomic policy and trade integration: Tanzania in the world economy (Marc Wuyts) Chapter 12 The politics of autonomy and sovereignty: Tanzania's aid relationship (Samuel Wangwe) Part 5 International collective action Chapter 13 The collective action problem (Judith Mehta and Rathin Roy) Chapter 14 Global warming, the USA and the failure of collective action (William Brown) Chapter 15 International political economy and making the international (Simon Bromley, Maureen Mackintosh, William Brown and Marc Wuyts)

The Dynamics of Political and Economic Interactions Between Mainland China and Taiwan

Abstract: The purpose of this article is to examine the trade and economic linkages across the Taiwan straits from the dynamic economic and political perspectives. In particular, we study the pattern and structure of the cross-straits trade and business linkages using game theory arguments. We assess the increasing economic interdependence between Taiwan and Mainland China, particularly the enduring political deadlock, by examining issues related to ”Taiwanification”, the dynamic instability, Taiwan's Mainland policy, and Taiwan in Beijing's Grand Strategy.

Interdependence and Conflict: When Does Symmetry Matter?

Abstract: This article introduces an altemative to the study of economic interdependence and interstate conflict. Typically, scholars have relied upon relative levels of economic activity to characterize symmetry in interdependence. Instead, I argue that the key to understanding the role of symmetry in interdependence and conflict lies in the relationship between a state's exit (opportunity) costs and the costs it is willing to bear in the face of political conflict with another state. Asymmetry with respect to two states' exit costs/threshold relationships can generate bargaining power that constrains the use of force. This approach improves our understanding of the complex relationship between interdependence and conflict. It also suggests that current measurements of economic interdependence may fail to identify situations where interdependence plays a role in conflict.

Framework Agreement on Comprehensive Economic Co-operation between India and ASEAN: First Step Towards Economic Integration

Abstract: I. Introduction Regional co-operation agreements in the past were regarded as precursors to inward-oriented economic blocs and, therefore, stumbling blocks to multilateral trade. However, they are now considered as complementing and having a positive affect on global trade liberalization (if they are consistent with WTO provisions) and are becoming the order of the day all over the world. Declining market access in the emerging patchwork of formidable regional trading blocs in Europe and America is causing fear of economic isolation in many Asian economies. Driven by challenges of globalization and growing economic interdependence in Asia, both ASEAN and India are actively pursuing free trade agreements with their trading partners within and outside the region. China's emergence as a trade and investment powerhouse and its entry into the World Trade Organization (WTO), affecting competitiveness in exports and foreign direct investment (FDI), have further contributed to the need for closer economic integration with trading partners. The inherent limitations of building up liberalized multilateral trade and the recent collapse of WTO talks in Cancun have added urgency to the process. India has existing free trade agreements (FFA) with Sri Lanka and Nepal and has recently signed a framework agreement towards establishing a FTA with Thailand and is negotiating FTAs with many countries including Singapore. (1) ASEAN has signed the framework agreements with China, Japan, and India to set up a free trade area within the next ten years, in addition to seeking bilateral FTAs, with Singapore taking the lead. India is ASEAN's summit partner along with China, Japan, and South Korea, After the initiation of India's "Look East" policy in the early 1990s, coinciding with economic reforms and liberalization, the ASEAN-India ties have grown from a sectoral dialogue partnership in 1992 to a full dialogue partnership in 1995 and subsequently to a summit-level interaction. The first ASEAN-India Summit was held in 2002 in Phnom Penh, Cambodia. The progressively closer relationship has led to the strengthening of not only economic ties between ASEAN and India, but also political and security linkages, with India joining the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) in 1996. ASEAN-India partnership aims at exploiting complementarities and synergies in terms of factor endowments, economic structure, and skills and capabilities in diverse areas such as information technology, pharmaceuticals, tourism, entertainment, human resource development, education, research in biotechnology, power, food processing, agriculture, healthcare, financial services, communication, space technology, energy security, industrial parks, real estate management, logistics, infrastructure, and so on. Over the last few years, collaborative initiatives (2) have been launched between ASEAN and India in many of these sectors. Some of the joint projects like development of composites and rare earth magnets for industrial applications are now poised for commercial applications. Apart from merchandise trade, there are bidirectional flows between India and ASEAN in FDI, science and technology, tourism, and manpower. ASEAN's expansion to include countries of the Indochina region (Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, and Vietnam) enhances the scope for ASEAN-India partnership in the twenty-first century. ASEAN-10 (3) plus India can exploit a large enough market for their goods and services on the basis of their national and region wise competitive advantage (Wadhva 2000). Over the last decade, strong institutional mechanisms for ASEAN-India dialogue and cooperation have been put in place. Two India-ASEAN Business Summits, held in India during 2002 and 2003, have already brought together business people and officials from both sides to explore business and industry links. To spearhead co-operation in the private sector, an ASEAN-India Business Council (AIBC) comprising of representatives from ASEAN Chambers of Commerce and Industry and apex business organizations in India has been set up. …

Inverse Engagement: Lessons from US-Iraq Relations, 1982-1990

Abstract: February 2003 marked the 12th anniversary of the liberation of Kuwait by the United States and its global allies and their near-total victory over the military forces of Iraqi President Saddam Hussein in Operation Desert Storm. However, much to the surprise of members of the first Bush Administration, academic scholars, military analysts, media pundits, foreign policy experts, and the average layman, Saddam Hussein remained in power in Iraq and continued to successfully defy the international community. Regardless of the military success of the US war with Iraq prosecuted by the second Bush Administration in 2003, Saddam's longevity should in itself serve as a significant warning to policymakers that something may be amiss in the formulation and execution of US foreign policy. In this article I reexamine the fundamental intellectual assumptions of what is known as "engagement," the foreign policy doctrine that guided US behavior toward Iraq in the decade preceding Saddam's invasion of Kuwait. Despite the whol esale failure of engagement in Iraq before 1990, the fundamental assumptions that guided US engagement policies have remained largely unexamined. This failure to acknowledge historic mistakes raises the disturbing possibility that similar failures of engagement may occur in Washington's strategic relationships with other problematic international actors and rogue states. Engagement in Practice: US Relations with Iraq, 1982-1990 Engagement serves as a core policy doctrine of US national security strategy in the 21st century. (1) In practice, implementing engagement relies heavily on the manipulation of economic incentives, primarily in the areas of trade and finance, to influence the behavior of other states. Engagement uses economic interdependence, or mutual dependence, to create ties that bind states together. Robert Keohane and Joseph Nye suggest that economic interdependence should be understood in terms of the power to influence, or the effects on each state of their trade linkages. Indeed, as many scholars have indicated, states have long recognized the truth that power generally flows from asymmetrical (or imbalanced) interdependence. (2) In keeping with this tradition, Keohane and Nye stress that when planning an effective diplomatic strategy, "It is asymmetries in dependence that are most likely to provide sources of influence for actors in their dealings with one another. Less dependent actors can often use the interdepend ent relationship as a source of power in bargaining over an issue and perhaps to affect other issues." (3) At its core, economic statecraft is founded on the principle of asymmetrical power. In 1979 political turmoil in the Middle East forever changed the regional strategic landscape. In January of that year a groundswell of Islamist protesters drove the Shah of Iran from the Persian throne, in December the Soviet Union launched its ruinous war in Afghanistan, and in September 1980 Iraq invaded Iran. Thus, the Middle East stage was radically changed as the Reagan Administration entered the White House. In the minds of Ronald Reagan's foreign policy team, US national interests in the oil-rich Persian Gulf now faced two significant new threats: communist expansionism by direct military means from the Soviet Union and the spread of anti-US Islamic fundamentalism from Iran. With these two factors in mind, Iraq's sponsorship of international terrorism was seen as a lesser of evils, and therefore Baghdad was perceived as a potential partner that could serve US strategic interests in the region. In March 1982, the US government officially began engaging Saddam Hussein by removing Iraq from the list of state sponsors of terrorism. The official reason was to recognize Iraq's improved record, (4) a claim that a Defense Department official later rebutted in stating, "No one had any doubts about [the Iraqis'] continued involvement in terrorism.... The real reason was to help them succeed in the war against Iran. …

Representing Germany? The Zollverein at the World Exhibitions, 1851–1862

Abstract: In 1843 the Braunschweig liberal Karl Steinacker claimed, “The Zollverein has now become the principal home of the idea of [national] unity, which will develop ever more strongly within it. Increasingly, and particularly abroad, people will understand Germany as primarily the members of the Zollverein.”1 At the time, this was hardly a controversial opinion: it was almost an article of faith for liberals that economic union would pave the way for greater political unity in Germany. Yet Steinacker’s statement is unusual for the emphasis he places on perception. He suggests that the Prussian-dominated customs union known as the Zollverein will promote German unity not just by encouraging economic interdependence but by changing what both Germans and foreigners understand Germany to be. This possibility, which is the main concern of this article, has been largely overlooked in the literature dealing with the role of the Zollverein in German unification. Instead, the debate has centered on the relationship between economic and political convergences in Germany, asking how far the emergence of this customs union after 1834 rendered the creation of a Prussian-dominated nation-state in 1871 inevitable. At issue here is the relationship between economic structures and political institutions—how far did the former shape the latter? In answering this question, two strands of inquiry have emerged. In the first, historians such as Wolfgang Zorn, Klaus Megerle, and R. H. Dumke have focused on economic issues such as the growth of economic interdependency among Zollverein member states, the fiscal advantages of membership for Zollverein governments, and the role of the Zollverein in promoting Germany’s economic takeoff in the mid-nineteenth century.2 The second strand

Global governance or a new imperium: which is it to be?

Abstract: In 1995 a Commission on Global Governance sought greater international cooperation and a deeper commitment to consensus to replace a preoccupation with political, economic and military power. It urged a series of reforms on the United Nations and a step towards the management of global economic interdependence. In response there was resistance and global governance being relegated to the periphery instead of being at the heart of globalization. In the wake of 11 September 2001, the writer, who was Co-Chair of the Commission, examines the approach to international affairs of the United States of America, and questions whether just when the world most needs a culture of globalism, it may not be headed towards a new era of unipolar dominion.

Odd Man In: Canada and the Transatlantic Crisis

Abstract: Even the on-again-off-again acceptance of the principle of a common policy by the many states of the EEC is no model for a continent consisting of one superpower and one middle power. Canada thus becomes the odd man out, the unsymmetrical element in the pattern. This creates a problem for Canadians of being disregarded. It presents a real problem for Americans and Europeans also of seeing how (or even remembering) to fit this stubborn piece into the framework.(1)SINCE JOHN HOLMES WROTE THOSE WORDS, the Atlantic community, with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization at its core, has survived another 30 years without resolving the problem he described. That is testimony to the durability both of the alliance and of the problem. For an alliance, of course, long life is evidence of some success--an indication that it has provided its members with enduring security, and perhaps even met the exacting standards of a true security community.(2) It is also likely to have survived many critical junctures during which seasoned observers pronounced it to be once more "at the cross-roads" or "in the balance." Over its 54 years NATO has accumulated not only institutions, tasks and members but also a rich experience of coping with adversity.That the alliance is once more in crisis is beyond dispute. Although the transatlantic volleys exchanged over the Iraq question have abated somewhat since their peak in the spring of 2003, the issues that divide the allies remain in plain view. But if observers agree that the transatlantic relationship is in trouble, they disagree on why, on how endangered the alliance really is and on what should be done about it.(3) On the one hand, most leaders--whether ritualistically or from deep conviction--persist in proclaiming the Atlantic community to be indispensable--the peaceful, prosperous and democratic core of the current world order. On the other hand, deeply embedded in the present American administration is a school of thought that tends to see NATO less as a community than as a collection of allies from which to select coalitions of the willing.(4) It is inclined to dismiss the alliance per se as just another multilateral impediment to America's new mission of preemptive and preventive action abroad--a perception that the actions of some European governments and the opinions of their citizens have done little to dispel.In Canada, sounds of discord in NATO always echo loudly, given this country's unique and long-standing commitment to the idea of an Atlantic community. From its origins in 1949, Canadian governments could, as others did, value the North Atlantic Treaty as linking the strategic fates of North America and western Europe, as supplementing UN security provisions and as anchoring containment. But NATO also served the fundamental Canadian interest in open, multilateral relations between America and Europe. Even better, then, if the bare bones of the treaty and its security guarantee could subsequently be fleshed out with a complex of military and civilian institutions, if new European members could be brought in and if the alliance could become the centrepiece of a community of like-minded states bound by economic interdependence and a common commitment to liberal, democratic values.(5) Each time these arrangements have seemed threatened, Canada could fairly claim to have more at stake than any other ally.What do the current troubles of the North Atlantic community mean for Canada, and how should the government respond? This paper suggests that, unusually for NATO, these problems have to do less with differences among allies as to the threats they face or the alliance's proper role in the world, than with long-term structural change on each side of the Atlantic. The result is a true existential crisis, exacerbated by events of the last two years and by a number of persistent irritants. This situation puts at risk the form of transatlantic multilateralism Canada has long favoured. …

The emergence of temporal correlations in a study of global economic interdependence

Abstract: We develop a simple firm-based automaton model for global economic interdependence of countries using modern notions of self-organized criticality and recently developed dynamical renormalization-group methods. We demonstrate how extremely strong statistical correlations can naturally develop between two countries even if the financial interconnections between those countries remain very weak. Potential policy implications of this result are also discussed.

Unfinished business : Ayukawa Yoshisuke and U.S.-Japan relations, 1937-1953

Abstract: Ayukawa Yoshisuke (1880-1967) was the founder of the Nissan conglomerate and the leader of the Manchuria Industrial Development Corporation, one of the linchpins of Imperial Japan's efforts to economically exploit its overseas dependencies. Despite his close association with the Japanese government from the 1920s to the 1950s, Ayukawa was a proponent of free trade and global economic interdependence. He sought to lessen state control of Japan's economy by trying to attract foreign - especially American - capital and technology in the years surrounding World War II. In the postwar era in particular, Ayukawa actively pushed the growth of small- and medium-sized firms, yet his efforts were ultimately unsuccessful. In "Unfinished Business", through exploring the reasons for Ayukawa's failure, Iguchi illuminates many of the economic problems of today's Japan.

Economic Interdependence and International Interactions: The Impact of Third - Party Trade on Political Conflict and Cooperation

Abstract: This article presents an empirical analysis of the relationship between economic interdependence and international third-party interactions. If countries seek to protect their trade gains, the tradeconflict model predicts that trade reduces conflict between pairs of countries, designated “actors” and “targets”. This paper extends the trade-conflict model to garner implications concerning trade and conflict interactions where third parties are involved. The theoretical propositions supported by proofs are as follows: (1) Increasing trade by an “actor” with a third party will decrease conflict with a “target”, if the third party and target are “friends”, who already have a negative level of mutual conflict. (2) Increasing trade with a third party will increase conflict with a target, if the third party and target are “rivals”, having a positive level of mutual conflict. A similar relationship is also discussed and tested if conflict increases or decreases between the actor and third party. The empirical results of tests using a 30-country sample from the Conflict and Peace Data Bank (COPDAB) generally support the hypotheses. Trade increases communication between states and promotes peace. Therefore, according to the implications of structural balance theory, the imbalance in a triadic relationship can be resolved by international trade. Thus, increasing world trade will give positive effect to the maxim: “a friend of a friend is a friend”.

Changing China–Taiwan Relations and Asia-Pacific Regionalism: Economic Co-operation and Security Challenge

Abstract: Since the election of Chen Shui-bian as Taiwan’s President in 2000, there have been significant changes in China–Taiwan relations. Economically, China and Taiwan have moved closer to each other. Politically, however, they are drifting further apart. Given that both Beijing and Taipei have a wide range of economic and trade connections with most countries in the Asia-Pacific, the future of their relations will have a far-reaching impact on the economic and security situation in the region. This chapter will first examine recent developments in Cross-Strait relations, focusing specifically on two plausible future scenarios. It will then consider the likely implications of each scenario on Asia-Pacific co-operation.

From Reluctant Champion to Development Ringmaster: Managing the Expanding Mission of the World Bank

Abstract: In the last decade, the World Bank has catapulted from relative obscurity in its work to alleviate global poverty to centrality in the latest controversies over development, economic interdependence, and the global economy. Since its inception at the Bretton Woods Conference in 1944, the Bank has attempted to assist poor countries in developing the infrastructure they need to prosper in the world economy. The Bank’s original mission was based on pure economic and macroeconomic reform. Through its experience in implementing this mission, however, the Bank has learned more about the nature of development and the many and various inputs necessary to achieve it. As a result, the Bank’s mission has broadened significantly. “There is probably nothing in this world more political than money.” After the Cold War was won by the proponents of free trade principles, the political spotlight fell upon the World Bank as the premier multilateral institution devoted to international aid. As understanding about the nature of development grew, developed countries and NGOs increased pressure on the Bank to expand its mission to include not only macroeconomic reform, but also reform in other social and political arenas such as human rights, protection of the environment and cultural heritage, and establishment of legal institutions. At the same time, the Bank’s own difficult experience further motivated it to expand its mission to accommodate these new areas of development assistance. Greater pressure from developed countries such as the United States and the swift expansion of the World Bank’s mission have made the Bank’s policies a focal point for criticism and discussion about the direction of international aid

Cultural Values and Leadership Behavior in the United States, Jamaica, and the Bahamas

Abstract: As global companies access business opportunities in other countries, culture and leadership practices become critical issues. Thus, it was timely that this study examined the effects of national culture on leadership behavior of Americans, Jamaicans, and Bahamians. These countries were chosen because of Jamaica’s and the Bahamas strong relationship with the United States (economic interdependence). MBA students attending classes in these countries and holding leadership positions within their respective organizations participated in the study. The results in addition to confirming other cross-cultural researchers’ work that the values and attitudes of individuals vary from country, also identifies that there are differences in leadership behavior across countries.

The Impact of Globalization on African Conflicts

Abstract: : There is no region of this world that not experienced wars, but while many parts of the world have moved towards greater political and economic stability and co-operation, sub-Saharan Africa remains a cauldron of instability and economic deprivation. Globalization, which in simple terms means a worldwide network of interdependence, is a phenomenon, which emerged at the end of the Cold War and the advent of the information revolution. While economic interdependence and liberalization has been acclaimed as the only hope for prosperity for the world, it has also been blamed as source of conflict in many parts of the world. This thesis examines the nexus between globalization and contemporary African conflicts with case studies of conflict scenarios in four African countries namely, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Sierra Leone, Nigeria and Guinea to ascertain the extent to which globalization played a role in sustaining these conflicts. The conclusion of this dissertation is that contemporary African conflicts have both national and international underpinnings, and include political, social and economic parameters. On the socio-political side, the conflicts are directly related to the circumstances surrounding the acquisition of independence, the multiethnic composition of the states, and the more often cited causes generally subsumed under the generic label governance. It also shows that the increased liberalization and expansion of international trade, which occurred in the aftermath of the Cold War, has exacerbated the level and intensity of the conflicts in three of the countries analyzed.

Economic Cooperation as a Step toward an East Asian Community

Abstract: Japan’s policy of economic cooperation with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has undergone dramatic change in the last three and a half decades. There are several reasons for this. First of all, from a small, war-torn economy, Japan has transformed itself to the second largest economy in the world, which has allowed it to become outward-looking, develop partnerships, and initiate regional arrangements. 1 It has restructured its industrial base, moving from labor-intensive to capital-, technology-, and knowledge-intensive sectors, from goods to services, which has forced Japan to expand its economic relations with other countries, particularly its Asian neighbors, in order to stay competitive with the world market. Increased economic interdependence in the region has been the result of these new relations. ASEAN countries have grown as well during this period, progressing from poor, agrarian economies into middle-income and, in some cases, high-income newly industrializing economies (NIEs) and near-NIEs. As this was taking place, there was enormous intra-regional expansion in trade and investment among the original five and later among the six ASEAN countries; this was complemented by increasing economic relations between ASEAN countries and the rest of the world, in particular China, Japan, South Korea, and the United States. When, during the 1990s, Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, and Vietnam joined the ASEAN-6, the association’s bargaining position vis-a-vis the rest of the world was strengthened, even as large economic gaps between the four new member nations (ASEAN-4) and the original ASEAN-6 introduced new challenges. The rapid pace of industrialization and urbanization have forced all ASEAN countries to confront the social issues of poverty, regional and "Economic Cooperation as a Step toward an East Asian Community," ASEAN-Japan Cooperation: A Foundation for East Asian Community; (ed. Japan Center for International Exchange), Tokyo: Japan Center for International Exchange, 2003, pp. 125-141.

Reengaging the North: War or Peace in Northeast Asia

Abstract: Future predictions in security studies tend to fall into two broad intellectual traditions: neoliberal modern hypotheses, and structural-realist geopolitical hypotheses. These two major schools of thought essentially agree on the rationality of participants, but disagree about the nature of the environment facing policy-makers and thereby framing their decisions. This project considers theoretical, rational, and statistical models associated with these approaches, analyzes the available data for future projection with regard to the Northeast Asian sub-region, and introduces a third rational future concerning the likelihood of a second Korean War. The first section will consider liberal modernist hypotheses. Here the focus is on supporting theoretical, rational and statistical material for the virtuous triangle of democracy, economic interdependence, and international organization as a source of peace. The second section will consider structural-realist and geopolitical hypotheses in which predict...

Democratic Peace in South Asia

Abstract: The problems and prospects of democratic peace have attracted both scholars of international relations and policy makers in recent years. The main argument is that the promotion of democracy will lower the probability of war because democracies have not yet gone to war against each other. The promotion of democratic governance therefore became one of the cornerstones of the foreign policies in both the U.S. and the member countries of the European Union (EU) in the 1990s. South Asia can surely be regarded as a region where the benefits of democratic peace would be more than desirable. South Asia’s image as a region of chronic instability was only to be seconded by U.S. President Clinton’s remarks in March 2000 that the Line of Control (LoC) in Kashmir is the ‘most dangerous place in the world’. The events following September 11 and the growing tensions between India and Pakistan after the attacks of Islamic militants on the Indian parliament in December 2001 have again increased the probability of a nuclear war in this part of the world. But the overall picture of the region is more complex. Besides the well-known conventional and nuclear security risks, South Asia is also among the poorest and least developed regions in the world according to international social and economic indicators. Despite these developments there are remarkable traditions of democratic rule at the same time. During most of the 1990s, South Asia was the biggest democratic region after the transition from authoritarian rule in Pakistan (1988), Nepal (1990) and Bangladesh (1990). Moreover, South Asia is the only region where western political institutions go hand in hand with a variety of non-western civilisations and where religion plays an active role in current politics. The only forms of Hindu and Islamic democracies are to be found in Nepal and Bangladesh, and Buddhism received a foremost place in the Sri Lanka constitution. In contrast to other Asian regions there is a strong commitment by South Asian countries to follow the development model that is included in the democratic peace debate. There is a great consensus for democracy and economic liberalisation. The constitutions of South Asian countries promote individual rights in contrast to community rights that created the debate on “Asian values” in parts of East and Southeast Asia some years ago. The ambivalent picture of conflict, poverty, and democracy offers an interesting test case for the theoretical assumptions of the democratic peace debate. In how far have periods of democratic governance on the domestic level as well as on the bilateral level brought about greater periods of peace as suggested by the theoretical debate? Will widespread democratisation and economic interdependence improve the prospects for peace and stability in the region? In order to address the problems and prospects of the democratic peace argument in South Asia, I will first give a short overview about the theoretical argument. In the second part, I will look at the domestic situation, the bilateral relations at the regional level and the role of economic interdependence and international institutions. Finally, I will draw conclusions about the applicability of the democratic peace argument for South Asia.