Showing papers on "Rebound effect (conservation) published in 2014"

Direct rebound effect on urban residential electricity use: An empirical study in China

Abstract: Though improving energy efficiency is an important approach to decrease the energy consumption, the rebound effect caused by technology progress negatively affects the effectiveness of energy efficiency policies. This paper empirically investigates direct rebound effect of urban residential electricity use in China. Using China's 30 provincial government panel data from1996 to 2010, we build a co-integration equation and a panel error correction model to analyze the direct rebound effect. The results indicate that an obvious rebound effect in the Chinese urban residential electricity consumption does exist. Specifically, the long-term rebound effect is 0.74, while the short-term rebound effect is 0.72. Therefore, the rebound effect significantly impairs functions of energy efficiency policies. For this reason, Chinese government should take the rebound effect into consideration when formulating energy policies.

Redefining efficiency for outdoor lighting

Abstract: Improvements in the luminous efficiency of outdoor lamps might not result in energy savings or reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. The reason for this is a rebound effect: when light becomes cheaper, many users will increase illumination, and some previously unlit areas may become lit. We present three policy recommendations that work together to guarantee major energy reductions in street lighting systems. First, taking advantage of new technologies to use light only when and where it is needed. Second, defining maximum permitted illuminances for roadway lighting. Third, defining street lighting system efficiency in terms of kilowatt hours per kilometer per year. Adoption of these policies would not only save energy, but would greatly reduce the amount of light pollution produced by cities. The goal of lighting policy should be to provide the light needed for any given task while minimizing both the energy use and negative environmental side effects of the light.

Consumer End-Use Energy Efficiency and Rebound Effects

Abstract: Energy efficiency policies are pursued as a way to provide affordable and sustainable energy services. Efficiency measures that reduce energy service costs will free up resources that can be spent in the form of increased consumption—either of that same good or service or of other goods and services that require energy (and that have associated emissions). This is called the rebound effect. There is still significant ambiguity about how the rebound effect should be defined, how we can measure it, and how we can characterize its uncertainty. Occasionally the debate regarding its importance reemerges, in part because the existing studies are not easily comparable. The scope, region, end-uses, time period of analysis, and drivers for efficiency improvements all differ widely from study to study. As a result, listing one single number for rebound effects would be misleading. Rebound effects are likely to depend on the specific attributes of the policies that trigger the efficiency improvement, but such factor...

The rebound effect through industrial ecology’s eyes: a review of LCA-based studies

Abstract: Industrial ecology academics have embraced with great interest the rebound effect principle operationalised within energy economics. By pursuing more comprehensive assessments, they applied tools such as life cycle assessment (LCA) to appraise the environmental consequences of the rebound effect. As a result, the mainstream rebound mechanism was broadened and a diversity of (sometimes inconsistent) definitions and approaches unveiled. To depict the state of play, a comprehensive literature review is needed. A literature review has been carried out by targeting scientific documents relevant for the integration of the rebound effect into LCA-based studies. The search was conducted using two approaches: (1) via online catalogues using a defined search criterion and (2) via cross-citation analysis from the documents identified through the first approach. By analysing a total of 42 works yielded during our review, it was possible to bring together the various advantages of the life cycle perspective, as well as to identify the main inconsistencies and uninformed claims present in literature. Concretely, three main advantages have been identified and are discussed: (1) the representation of the rebound effect as a multi-dimensional, life cycle estimate, (2) the improvement of the technology explicitness and (3) the broadening of the consumption and production factors leading to the rebound effect. Also, inconsistencies on the definition and classification of the rebound effect have been found among studies. The review contributes a number of valuable insights to understand how the rebound effect has been treated within the industrial ecology and LCA fields. For instance, the conceptual and methodological refinements introduced by these fields represent a step forward from traditional viewpoints, making the study of the rebound effect more comprehensive and meaningful for environmental assessment and policy making. However, the broadened scope of this new approach unveiled some conceptual inconsistencies, which calls for a common framework. This framework would help the LCA community to consistently integrate the rebound effect as well as to create a common language with other disciplines, favouring learning and co-evolution. We believe that our findings can serve as a starting point in order to delineate such a common framework.

The Economy-Wide Rebound Effect from Improved Energy Efficiency in Swedish Industries – A General Equilibrium Analysis

Abstract: The objective of this paper is to analyze the rebound effect from increased efficiency in industrial use of energy in Sweden. Energy efficiency improvements can have significant micro- and macroeconomic effects that hampers the positive effect on real energy savings. To assess the size of the overall rebound effect in the Swedish economy we apply a computable general equilibrium model. The results show that the economy-wide rebound effect in Sweden depends on a number of factors, e.g. the extent of the energy efficiency improvement, how the labour market is modeled as well as if the increase in energy efficiency is combined with a cost or not. We find that the rebound effect following a 5 percent increase of energy efficiency in the Swedish industry lies in the range of 40-70 percent. When energy efficiency only is improved in energy-intensive production, the rebound effect becomes even higher. These findings are in line with the results in the literature.

Can Efficiency Improvements Reduce Resource Consumption?: A Historical Analysis of Ten Activities

Abstract: This work explores the historical effectiveness of efficiency improvements in reducing humankind's consumption of energy resources. Ten activities are analyzed, including pig iron production, aluminum production, nitrogen fertilizer production, electricity generation from coal, electricity generation from oil, electricity generation from natural gas, freight rail travel, passenger air travel, motor vehicle travel, and residential refrigeration. The data and analyses presented here demonstrate the dynamic interplay between technological innovation, market forces, and government policy. They also show that, historically, over long time periods, incremental improvements in efficiency have not succeeded in outpacing increases in the quantity of goods and services provided. Thus, the end result over these time periods has been, not surprisingly, a sizeable increase in the consumption of energy resources across all ten activities. However, there do exist a few examples of shorter, decade-long time periods in which improvements in efficiency were able to match or outpace increases in quantity. In these cases, efficiency mandates, price pressures, and industry upheaval led to periods of reduced resource consumption. These cases suggest that with appropriate incentives, including, for example, efficiency mandates and price mechanisms, future resource consumption, and its associated environmental impacts, could be stabilized and even reduced.

The impact of the rebound effect of the use of first generation biofuels in the EU on greenhouse gas emissions: A critical review

Abstract: An important objective of the mandated blending of biofuel in conventional gasoline and diesel in the EU is reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. An important assumption thereby is that biofuels replace the production and consumption of oil. However, recent literature challenges this assumption, because an increased use of biofuels will lower oil prices and therefore result in increase crude oil consumption. This so-called rebound effect offsets the expected GHG emission saving effects of using biofuels. A review of eight studies, mainly on current and future US biofuel policies, provides insights in the current state of research into this topic, showing a wide range of values of the rebound effect of biofuel use, depending among others on the biofuel policy, the applied method and the model parameter assumptions. Generally, estimated rebound effects are negative in the country where biofuel use is being promoted (i.e. the use of 1 unit of biofuel reduces oil consumption by less than 1 unit; units on energy basis). The rebound effects in other countries are always positive (biofuel use reduces oil consumption by less than 1 unit so the total fuel consumption is increasing). The net global rebound effect is usually positive, which means that GHG emissions savings are not achieved as much as usually is assumed, or emissions may even increase. Own estimations with the global MAGNET computable general equilibrium model indicate a global rebound effect of the 10% biofuel blend mandate in the EU in the year 2020 of 22–30% (i.e. the use of 1 unit of biofuel reduces global oil consumption by 0.78–0.70 units). This means that GHG emissions will not be reduced as much as usually is assumed, or may even increase. These results show that rebound effects can significantly lower the effectiveness of biofuel policies in reducing GHG emissions.

The remarkable environmental rebound effect of electric cars: a microeconomic approach.

Abstract: This article presents a stepwise, refined, and practical analytical framework to model the microeconomic environmental rebound effect (ERE) stemming from cost differences of electric cars in terms of changes in multiple life cycle environmental indicators. The analytical framework is based on marginal consumption analysis and hybrid life cycle assessment (LCA). The article makes a novel contribution through a reinterpretation of the traditional rebound effect and methodological refinements. It also provides novel empirical results about the ERE for plug-in hybrid electric (PHE), full-battery electric (FBE), and hydrogen fuel cell (HFC) cars for Europe. The ERE is found to have a remarkable impact on product-level environmental scores. For the PHE car, the ERE causes a marginal increase in demand and environmental pressures due to a small decrease in the cost of using this technology. For FBE and HFC cars, the high capital costs cause a noteworthy decrease in environmental pressures for some indicators (negative rebound effect). The results corroborate the concern over the high influence of cost differences for environmental assessment, and they prompt sustainable consumption policies to consider markets and prices as tools rather than as an immutable background.

System dynamics model for analyzing effects of eco-design policy on packaging waste management system

Abstract: EU's long-term objective is to become a recycling and resource effective society, where waste is utilized as a resource and waste generation is prevented. A system dynamics model was developed to analyze the policy mechanisms that promote packaging material efficiency in products through increased recycling rates. The model includes economic incentives such as packaging and landfill taxes combined with market mechanisms, behavioral aspects and ecological considerations in terms of material efficiency (the packaging material per product unit, recycled fraction in products). The paper presents the results of application of various policy instruments for increasing packaging material efficiency and recovery rate and reducing landfilled fraction. The results show that a packaging tax is an effective policy instrument for increasing the material efficiency. It ensures the decrease of the total consumption of materials and subsequent waste generation. The tax helps to counteract a rebound effect, which, as identified by the analysis, can be caused by reduced material costs due to eco-design. The model is applied to the case of Latvia. Yet, the elements and structure of the model developed are similar to waste management systems in many countries. By changing numeric values of certain parameters, the model can be applied to analyze policy mechanisms in other countries.

Interactions between China׳s economy, energy and the air emissions and their policy implications

Abstract: How to coordinate the relationships between economy, energy and environment is a complex issue for China. This paper presented an indicator system based on energy, emergy and monetary units to explore the interactions between China׳s economic growth, its energy production and consumption, and the related air emissions during 1995–2011. The results show that (1) China׳s energy utilization efficiency is continuously raised whilst the total production efficiency is just slightly improved; (2) petroleum import has surpassed international warning line (50%) since 2007, and it is further challenging China׳s energy security; (3) basic energy mix is still mainly composed of coal and petroleum; (4) air emissions׳ impact from energy production has climbed rapidly whilst that from energy consumption has declined slowly. Air emissions׳ impact from energy consumption still has main contribution to the total emissions׳ impact whilst that from energy production has an increasing share. Therein, air emissions׳ impact mainly comes from the impact on human health. While air emission intensity from energy consumption decreases obviously, that from energy production generally increases; (5) generally, the relationships between the structures of economy and energy and air emissions have become more coordinated. Compared with structure coordination degree, the improvement of scale harmony degree between the three aspects is much slower due to rebound effect, which will seriously challenge the presented targets in 12th Five-Year-Plan (FYP). Promoting the synergistic effect should become the underlying strategy for future economic sustainable development.

Energy Efficiency Policies and the Jevons Paradox

Abstract: Energy and climate change policies are often strongly based on achieving energy efficiency targets. These policies are supposed to reduce energy consumption and consequently, associated pollutant emissions, but the Jevons paradox may pose a question mark on this assumption. Rebound effects produced by reduction in costs of energy services have not been generally taken into account in policy making (there is only one known exception). Although there is no scientific consensus about its magnitude, there is consensus about its existence and in acknowledging the harmful effects it has on achieving energy or climate targets. It is necessary to address the rebound effect through behavioral, legal and economic instruments. This paper analyzes the main available policies to minimize the rebound effect in households with special emphasis on economic instruments and, particularly, on energy taxation. Keywords: Rebound effect; Energy efficiency; Environmental taxation JEL Classifications: Q2; Q3; Q4; Q5

Can Rebound Effects Explain Why Sustainable Mobility Has Not Been Achieved

Abstract: Since the report “Our Common Future” launched sustainable development as a primary goal for society in 1987, both scientific and political discussions about the term’s definition and how to achieve sustainable development have ensued. The manifold negative environmental impacts of transportation are an important contributor to the so-far non-sustainable development in financially rich areas of the world. Thus, achieving sustainable mobility is crucial to achieving the wider challenge of sustainable development. In this article, we limit our sustainability focus to that of energy use and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. We discuss whether rebound effects can reveal why sustainable mobility has not been reached. Rebound effects refer to behavioral or other systemic responses after the implementation of new technologies or other measures to reduce energy consumption. Three main strategies exist for achieving sustainable mobility: efficiency, substitution, and volume reduction. (1) The efficiency strategy is based on the idea that environmental problems caused by transport can be improved by developing new and more efficient technologies to replace old, inefficient, and polluting materials and methods; (2) The second strategy—substitution—argues for a change to less polluting means of transport; (3) The volume reduction strategy argue that efficiency and substitution are not sufficient, we must fundamentally change behavior and consumption patterns; people must travel less, and freight volumes must decrease. We found rebound effects associated with all three of the main strategies that will lead to offsetting expected savings in energy use and GHG emissions in the transport sector.

Determinants of Commuter Trends and Implications for Indirect Rebound Effects: A Case Study of Germany's Largest Federal State of NRW, 1994-2013

Abstract: Home-work commuting distances are increasing in Europe. Many studies see this as due to geographical mismatches between workplaces and homes, or worker skills and job locations, and often recommend policies to close geographical gaps between jobs and suitable workers. A different approach sees commuting as essential in a modern economy, as it facilitates information flow across complex economic networks in geographically dispersed regions. In this ‘city-network’ view, many workers make deliberate choices to commute and many employers encourage this. This paper explores these viewpoints in a case study of increasing commuting in Germany’s most populous state, North-Rhine-Westphalia, in 1994-2013, using Federal data on workers’ home and work locations. It finds an average annual increase in commuter numbers of 1.35%, from 43% to 55% of the workforce. Some of this increase can be explained by worker skills and job location mismatches, but steady increases in various commuting metrics lead to the suggestion that commuting is also something people choose to do. This supports the city-network hypothesis, and also implies a rebound effect of increased travel due to increased economy-wide energy efficiency. Qualitative and quantitative studies are needed to identify the actual reasons people commute, and to more accurately estimate rebound effects.

An agent based approach to the potential for rebound resulting from evolution of residential lighting technologies

Abstract: More energy efficient lighting options, such as compact fluorescent bulbs and light emitting diodes are predicted to significantly reduce the amount of energy used for lighting. Such forecasts are predicated on the assumption of light saturation and do not take into account the potential for economic rebound. The potential of the rebound effect to reduce or negate predicted energy savings is explored here. This work uses an agent-based model with a cellular automata approach to study the impact of rebound on the consumption of residential light and associated energy use, using three lighting technologies, and a time span from 2012 to 2030. Agents, representative of households, select between three lighting options using a multiplicative utility function and a probabilistic choice mechanism. Agents then decide whether to consume more light and potentially more energy based on the lighting technology selected and personal preferences. The agents are heterogeneous in nature, consisting of seven typologies, with their characteristics informed through survey data. The results of the model indicate that although the consumption of light may increase, overall changes in the consumption of energy compared to 2012 levels will be minor. If the consumption of light is held steady, assuming saturation, then there is the potential for the adoption of energy-efficient lighting to result in significant energy savings. However, if the rebound effect occurs, there will be a decrease in the consumption of energy for lighting as consumers adopt more energy efficient options. Overtime as the consumption of light continues to increase, those savings will largely be eroded. This study suggests that the adoption of energy-efficient lighting in itself will not reduce the overall consumption of energy for lighting on a long-term scale although it may be successful in doing so in the short-term. The rebound effect will greatly reduce the projected energy savings from more efficient lighting technologies, with potential for direct rebound to exceed 100 %. In order for the quantity of energy utilized in residential lighting to decrease, solutions beyond that of efficiency gains must be considered.

Using LCA-based decomposition analysis to study the multidimensional contribution of technological innovation to environmental pressures

Abstract: This article presents a general framework for macroenvironmental assessment, combining life cycle assessment (LCA) with the IPAT equation, and explores its combination with decomposition analysis to assess the multidimensional contribution of technological innovation to environmental pressures. This approach is illustrated with a case study in which carbon dioxide (CO2) and nitrogen oxides (NOx) air emissions from diesel passenger cars in Europe during the period 1990�2005 are first decomposed using index decomposition analysis into technology, consumption activity, and population growth effects. By a second decomposition, the contribution of a specific innovation (diesel engine) is calculated on the basis of the technology and consumption activity effects, through a technological comparison with a relevant alternative and the calculation of the rebound effect, respectively. The empirical analysis for diesel passenger cars highlights the discrepancies between the micro (LCA) and macro (IPAT-LCA) analytical approaches. Thus, whereas diesel engines present a relatively less-pollutant environmental product profile than their gasoline counterparts, total CO2 and NOx emissions would have increased partly as a consequence of their introduction, mainly driven by the increase in travel demand caused by the induced direct price rebound effect from fuel savings and fuel price differences. The counterintuitive result shows the need for such an analysis.

Rebound Effect of Energy Intensity Reduction on Energy Consumption

Abstract: Energy efficiency can be represented by energy intensity, i.e., physical energy use per unit economic output. One percent energy efficiency improvement is expected to reduce one percent energy intensity and physical energy use to produce a given output. However, the real energy intensity and physical energy use may differ from the expectations due to output growth. How can we estimate the rebound effect of the energy intensity change? The present paper offers a method based on a general form of production function. The method does not require the assumption of profit maximization for producers. The energy intensity changes can come from both factor-augmented and factor-neutral technological improvement and substitutions between energy and other inputs in the production. In the calculation, the signal for policy-making is not plausible if potential energy use is assumed to change at the same rate as the observed energy intensity.

Energy Efficiency and Rebound Effects: An Econometric Analysis of Energy Demand in the Commercial Building Sector

Abstract: It is widely recognized that the adoption of energy saving innovations can induce an increase in the usage of the corresponding technologies and thus can possibly increase energy consumption. Among other concerns is that uncertainties regarding the magnitude of this “rebound effect” can deter policy makers from promoting energy efficiency. This paper analyzes the rebound effects of the adoption of energy efficient technologies in commercial buildings. Based upon a structural model of technology adoption and subsequent energy demand at the building level, the empirical results are that energy efficiency can reduce electricity use by about 35 % and natural gas consumption by about 50 %.

Welfare Assessment of the Renewable Fuel Standard: Economic Efficiency, Rebound Effect, and Policy Interactions in a General Equilibrium Framework

Abstract: In this paper, we have shown that partial equilibrium evaluations of biofuels policies can lead to misleading results. We develop a stylized theoretical model to show how a general equilibrium setup can improve the analysis of price, welfare, rebound, and other impacts. We then implement an empirical analysis of the US corn ethanol mandate and show that inclusion of agricultural subsidies and income tax impacts are very important. Previous work has seriously underestimated the price impacts on coarse grains because the financing of the implicit subsidy did not consider the reduction of agricultural subsidies. Also, other studies in the literature have estimated huge gasoline price decreases due to the US ethanol program. We show that the gasoline price impact is essentially negligible. These other studies did not include all the economy wide impacts. We also show the rebound, trade, and welfare impacts of the policy cases. The land use impact varies significantly with implemented ethanol policy, but the welfare impacts do not differ meaningfully across the cases.

The Rebound Effect

Abstract: The view that energy-efficiency improvements will actually serve to increase rather than reduce energy consumption was first proposed by the British economist, William Stanley Jevons in 1865. The effect he singled out was dubbed the “rebound effect” and its foundations became known as the “Jevons paradox.” This chapter places the debate back in its historical context by drawing attention to the issue that triggered major theoretical developments: whether or not Victorian Britain faced a threat of coal depletion alongside all the consequences such as the ensuing slowdown in economic activity and decline in imperial might. We detail how many of the forecasts associated with the impending coal scarcity thesis were not borne out by reality. Furthermore, we also explain what went wrong with Jevons’s view before the final pages discuss the role of energy efficiency in the contemporary world.

Revisiting Rebound Effects from Material Resource Use. Indications for Germany Considering Social Heterogeneity

Abstract: In contrast to the original investigation by William Stanley Jevons, compensations of energy savings due to improved energy efficiency are mostly analyzed by providing energy consumption or greenhouse gas emissions. In support of a sustainable resource management, this paper analyzes so-called rebound effects based on resource use. Material flows and associated expenditures by households allow for calculating resource intensities and marginal propensities to consume. Marginal propensities to consume are estimated from data of the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) in order to account for indirect rebound effects for food, housing and mobility. Resource intensities are estimated in terms of total material requirements per household final consumption expenditures along the Classification of Individual Consumption according to Purpose (COICOP). Eventually, rebound effects are indicated on the basis of published saving scenarios in resource and energy demand for Germany. In sum, compensations due to rebound effects are lowest for food while the highest compensations are induced for mobility. This is foremost the result of a relatively high resource intensity of food and a relatively low resource intensity in mobility. Findings are provided by giving various propensity scenarios in order to cope with income differences in Germany. The author concludes that policies on resource conservation need to reconsider rebound effects under the aspect of social heterogeneity.