Showing papers by "A. Townsend Peterson published in 2015"

Climate change influences on global distributions of dengue and chikungunya virus vectors.

Abstract: Numerous recent studies have illuminated global distributions of human cases of dengue and other mosquito-transmitted diseases, yet the potential distributions of key vector species have not been incorporated integrally into those mapping efforts. Projections onto future conditions to illuminate potential distributional shifts in coming decades are similarly lacking, at least outside Europe. This study examined the global potential distributions of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus in relation to climatic variation worldwide to develop ecological niche models that, in turn, allowed anticipation of possible changes in distributional patterns into the future. Results indicated complex global rearrangements of potential distributional areas, which—given the impressive dispersal abilities of these two species—are likely to translate into actual distributional shifts. This exercise also signalled a crucial priority: digitization and sharing of existing distributional data so that models of this sort can be developed more rigorously, as present availability of such data is fragmentary and woefully incomplete.

Mechanistic and Correlative Models of Ecological Niches

Abstract: The suite of factors that drives where and under what conditions a species occurs has become the focus of intense research interest. Three general categories of methods have emerged by which researchers address questions in this area: mechanistic models of species’ requirements in terms of environmental conditions that are based on first principles of biophysics and physiology, correlational models based on environmental associations derived from analyses of geographic occurrences of species, and process-based simulations that estimate occupied distributional areas and associated environments from assumptions about niche dimensions and dispersal abilities. We review strengths and weaknesses of these sets of approaches, and identify significant advantages and disadvantages of each. Rather than identifying one or the other as ‘better,’ we suggest that researchers take great care to use the method best-suited to each specific research question, and be conscious of the weaknesses of any method, such that inappropriate interpretations are avoided.

Atlas of Mexican Triatominae (Reduviidae: Hemiptera) and vector transmission of Chagas disease

Abstract: Chagas disease is one of the most important yet neglected parasitic diseases in Mexico and is transmitted by Triatominae. Nineteen of the 31 Mexican triatomine species have been consistently found to invade human houses and all have been found to be naturally infected with Trypanosoma cruzi. The present paper aims to produce a state-of-knowledge atlas of Mexican triatomines and analyse their geographic associations with T. cruzi, human demographics and landscape modification. Ecological niche models (ENMs) were constructed for the 19 species with more than 10 records in North America, as well as for T. cruzi. The 2010 Mexican national census and the 2007 National Forestry Inventory were used to analyse overlap patterns with ENMs. Niche breadth was greatest in species from the semiarid Nearctic Region, whereas species richness was associated with topographic heterogeneity in the Neotropical Region, particularly along the Pacific Coast. Three species, Triatoma longipennis, Triatoma mexicana and Triatoma barberi, overlapped with the greatest numbers of human communities, but these communities had the lowest rural/urban population ratios. Triatomine vectors have urbanised in most regions, demonstrating a high tolerance to human-modified habitats and broadened historical ranges, exposing more than 88% of the Mexican population and leaving few areas in Mexico without the potential for T. cruzi transmission.

The Importance of Biodiversity E-infrastructures for Megadiverse Countries

Abstract: Addressing the challenges of biodiversity conservation and sustainable development requires global cooperation, support structures, and new governance models to integrate diverse initiatives and achieve massive, open exchange of data, tools, and technology. The traditional paradigm of sharing scientific knowledge through publications is not sufficient to meet contemporary demands that require not only the results but also data, knowledge, and skills to analyze the data. E-infrastructures are key in facilitating access to data and providing the framework for collaboration. Here we discuss the importance of e-infrastructures of public interest and the lack of long-term funding policies. We present the example of Brazil’s speciesLink network, an e-infrastructure that provides free and open access to biodiversity primary data and associated tools. SpeciesLink currently integrates 382 datasets from 135 national institutions and 13 institutions from abroad, openly sharing ~7.4 million records, 94% of which are associated to voucher specimens. Just as important as the data is the network of data providers and users. In 2014, more than 95% of its users were from Brazil, demonstrating the importance of local e-infrastructures in enabling and promoting local use of biodiversity data and knowledge. From the outset, speciesLink has been sustained through project-based funding, normally public grants for 2–4-year periods. In between projects, there are short-term crises in trying to keep the system operational, a fact that has also been observed in global biodiversity portals, as well as in social and physical sciences platforms and even in computing services portals. In the last decade, the open access movement propelled the development of many web platforms for sharing data. Adequate policies unfortunately did not follow the same tempo, and now many initiatives may perish.

Bat-borne rabies in latin america

Abstract: The situation of rabies in America is complex: rabies in dogs has decreased dramatically, but bats are increasingly recognized as natural reservoirs of other rabies variants Here, bat species known to be rabies-positive with different antigenic variants, are summarized in relation to bat conservation status across Latin America Rabies virus is widespread in Latin American bat species, 225%75 of bat species have been confirmed as rabies-positive Most bat species found rabies positive are classified by the International Union for Conservation of Nature as “Least Concern” According to diet type, insectivorous bats had the most species known as rabies reservoirs, while in proportion hematophagous bats were the most important Research at coarse spatial scales must strive to understand rabies ecology; basic information on distribution and population dynamics of many Latin American and Caribbean bat species is needed; and detailed information on effects of landscape change in driving bat-borne rabies outbreaks remains unassessed Finally, integrated approaches including public health, ecology, and conservation biology are needed to understand and prevent emergent diseases in bats

A global perspective on decadal challenges and priorities in biodiversity informatics

Abstract: Biodiversity informatics is a field that is growing rapidly in data infrastructure, tools, and participation by researchers worldwide from diverse disciplines and with diverse, innovative approaches. A recent ‘decadal view’ of the field laid out a vision that was nonetheless restricted and constrained by its European focus. Our alternative decadal view is global, i.e., it sees the worldwide scope and importance of biodiversity informatics as addressing five major, global goals: (1) mobilize existing knowledge; (2) share this knowledge and the experience of its myriad deployments globally; (3) avoid ‘siloing’ and reinventing the tools of knowledge deployment; (4) tackle biodiversity informatics challenges at appropriate scales; and (5) seek solutions to difficult challenges that are strategic.

Mapping the Potential Risk of Mycetoma Infection in Sudan

Abstract: Abdallah M. Samy, Wendy WJ. van de Sande, Ahmed Hassan Fahal, A. Townsend Peterson. 1Biodiversity Institute and Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Kansas, Lawrence, Kansas, United States of America 2 Entomology Department, Faculty of Science, Ain Shams University, Abbassia, Cairo, Egypt 3Erasmus Medical Center, Department of Medical Microbiology and Infectious diseases, Rotterdam, The Netherlands 4 Mycetoma Research Centre, University of Khartoum, Khartoum, Sudan

Twentieth century turnover of Mexican endemic avifaunas: Landscape change versus climate drivers

Abstract: Numerous climate change effects on biodiversity have been anticipated and documented, including extinctions, range shifts, phenological shifts, and breakdown of interactions in ecological communities, yet the relative balance of different climate drivers and their relationships to other agents of global change (for example, land use and land-use change) remains relatively poorly understood. This study integrated historical and current biodiversity data on distributions of 115 Mexican endemic bird species to document areas of concentrated gains and losses of species in local communities, and then related those changes to climate and land-use drivers. Of all drivers examined, at this relatively coarse spatial resolution, only temperature change had significant impacts on avifaunal turnover; neither precipitation change nor human impact on landscapes had detectable effects. This study, conducted across species' geographic distributions, and covering all of Mexico, thanks to two large-scale biodiversity data sets, could discern relative importance of specific climatic drivers of biodiversity change.

A test of niche centrality as a determinant of population trends and conservation status in threatened and endangered North American birds

Abstract: Abundance and other aspects of population ecology have long been known to con- tribute to shaping the geography of species' distributions. In particular, abundance patterns have recently been shown to negatively correlate with environmental distance from conditions in the center of a species' abiotic niche, rather than vary with distance from the geographic center of a species' distribution. We tested for such associations across 8 species of endangered or threatened bird species in North America using population trend data derived from >4 decades of North Amer- ican Breeding Bird Surveys. Although we found no consistent overall pattern, we did observe nega- tive population trends at conditions that were the most extreme within species' niches. This suggests that niche peripherality is a relevant factor to consider in conservation planning. Specifi- cally, environmentally peripheral sites may be poor places in which to protect populations of endan- gered and threatened species, irrespective of how centrally they may occur within species' geo- graphic distributions.

MERS-CoV geography and ecology in the Middle East: analyses of reported camel exposures and a preliminary risk map

Abstract: Middle Eastern respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) has spread rapidly across much of the Middle East, but no quantitative mapping of transmission risk has been developed to date. Moreover, details of the transmission cycle of the virus remain unclear, particularly regarding the role of camels as a reservoir host for human infections. We present a first analysis of the environmental circumstances under which MERS-CoV cases have occurred in the Middle East, covering all case occurrences through May 2015, using ecological niche modeling approaches to map transmission risk. We compare the environmental breadth of conditions under which cases have reported camel contacts with that of the broader population of all cases, to assess whether camel-associated cases occur under a more restricted set of environmental circumstances. We documented geographic and environmental distributions of MERS-CoV cases across the Middle East, and offer preliminary mapping of transmission risk. We confirm the idea that climatic dimensions of camel-associated cases are more constrained and less variable than the broader suite of case occurrences; hence, camel exposure may be a key limiting element in MERS-CoV transmission. This study offers a first detailed geographic and environmental analysis of MERS-CoV distributions across the Middle East. Results indicated that camel-exposed cases occur under a narrower suite of environmental conditions than non-camel-exposed cases, suggesting perhaps a key role for camels in the transmission of the disease, and perhaps a narrower area of risk for ‘primary,’ camel-derived cases of MERS.

Ecological approaches in veterinary epidemiology: mapping the risk of bat-borne rabies using vegetation indices and night-time light satellite imagery

Abstract: Rabies remains a disease of significant public health concern. In the Americas, bats are an important source of rabies for pets, livestock, and humans. For effective rabies control and prevention, identifying potential areas for disease occurrence is critical to guide future research, inform public health policies, and design interventions. To anticipate zoonotic infectious diseases distribution at coarse scale, veterinary epidemiology needs to advance via exploring current geographic ecology tools and data using a biological approach. We analyzed bat-borne rabies reports in Chile from 2002 to 2012 to establish associations between rabies occurrence and environmental factors to generate an ecological niche model (ENM). The main rabies reservoir in Chile is the bat species Tadarida brasiliensis; we mapped 726 occurrences of rabies virus variant AgV4 in this bat species and integrated them with contemporary Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). The correct prediction of areas with rabies in bats and the reliable anticipation of human rabies in our study illustrate the usefulness of ENM for mapping rabies and other zoonotic pathogens. Additionally, we highlight critical issues with selection of environmental variables, methods for model validation, and consideration of sampling bias. Indeed, models with weak or incorrect validation approaches should be interpreted with caution. In conclusion, ecological niche modeling applications for mapping disease risk at coarse geographic scales have a promising future, especially with refinement and enrichment of models with additional information, such as night-time light data, which increased substantially the model’s ability to anticipate human rabies.

Ecological niches and present and historical geographic distributions of species: a 15-year review of frameworks, results, pitfalls, and promises

Abstract: We present an overview of the emerging field of species-level distributional ecology, particularly as it relates to phylogeographic studies of birds in Eurasia. This field centers around distributional inferences and predictions deriving from the use of ecological niche modeling. We provide a brief historical review, and then proceed to outline a number of crucial methodological considerations, if models are to have biological meaning and reality. We then proceed to provide a worked example, as well as some thinking about directions in which the field should be moving in terms of questions and approaches.

Biodiversity Governance: A Tower of Babel of Scales and Cultures

Abstract: The recently created Intergovernmental Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES), originally focused on multilateral and global issues, is shifting its focus to address local issues and to include in its assessments local stakeholders and indigenous and traditional systems of knowledge. Acknowledging that full biodiversity governance is unavoidably rooted in participation of local actors and their problems and knowledge, we suggest that to deal successfully with the complexity and diversity of local issues, including indigenous knowledge systems, IPBES must recognize a key role of local institutions.

Mapping Risk of Nipah Virus Transmission Across Asia and Across Bangladesh

Abstract: Nipah virus is a highly pathogenic but poorly known paramyxovirus from South and Southeast Asia. In spite of the risks that it poses to human health, the geography and ecology of its occurrence remain little understood—the virus is basically known from Bangladesh and peninsular Malaysia, and little in between. In this contribution, I use documented occurrences of the virus to develop ecological niche-based maps summarizing its likely broader occurrence—although rangewide maps could not be developed that had significant predictive abilities, reflecting minimal sample sizes available, maps within Bangladesh were quite successful in identifying areas in which the virus is predictably present and likely transmitted.

Niche-based projections of wetlands shifts with marine intrusion from sea level rise: an example analysis for North Carolina

Abstract: Climate change is affecting world systems in many ways, of which one important dimension is sea level rise. This implication, however, has not heretofore been incorporated powerfully in analyses of biodiversity consequences of climate change, for lack of effective means of (1) modeling the degree and extent of marine intrusion into terrestrial habitats, and (2) anticipating dispersal-mediated shifts in natural systems (species, ecosystems, etc.). In this paper, recent developments in modeling marine intrusion over complex coastal landscapes are integrated with an adaptation of ecological niche modeling for estimating ‘niches’ of natural systems to anticipate sea level rise effects on them in an appropriate biological framework. This novel series of steps is illustrated with a worked example of wetlands systems and associated species and communities along the coast of North Carolina, but the methodology is novel for anticipating sea level rise-mediated shifts in vegetation types in many coastal systems.

Avifaunal Surveys of the Upper Apurímac River Valley, Ayacucho and Cuzco Departments, Peru: New Distributional Records and Biogeographic, Taxonomic, and Conservation Implications

Abstract: The sliver of humid tropical and montane forest on the east slope of the Andes in Ayacucho Department ranks among the least surveyed sectors of the Peruvian Andes. This mountainous region, along with adjacent Apurimac Department and western Cuzco Department, comprise the Apurimac River Valley, a putative biogeographic barrier. Hence, understanding avian distributions in the vicinity of the Apurimac River Valley is fundamental to understanding faunal turnover across it. Here, we report results of recent avifaunal surveys (2008–2012) from five sites in the Apurimac Valley region. We report 35 bird species previously undocumented in Ayacucho, six of which represent range extensions, including records of the endemic Black-spectacled Brush-Finch (Atlapetes melanopsis), Marcapata Spinetail (Cranioleuca marcapatae), and Chestnut-breasted Mountain-Finch (Poospiza caesar); the remaining records filled perceived range gaps. Specimen evidence suggests little phenotypic introgression between differentiated f...

Trans-Amazon dispersal potential for Crotalus durissus during Pleistocene climate events

Abstract: Two disjunct distributional areas of Crotalus durissus (Neotropical rattlesnake) are in open habitats north and south of the Amazon Basin and are presently separated by humid rainforest habitats. We used ecological niche modeling to identify and investigate potential dispersal pathways for this species between the two areas during the late Pleistocene. Niches estimated for the two populations did not differ significantly. Our analyses indicated two possible, but a single most likely, potential routes of dispersal during the last glacial cycle. These results are important to understanding the history of Amazon Basin humid forest biotas, as they suggest agents of isolation among putative humid forest refugia in the form of dry forest and scrub, and associated biotas.

Avian evolution and speciation in the Southeast Asian tropics

Abstract: A. Townsend PETERSON, Robert G. MOYLE, Fumin LEI, Luke C. CAMPILLO, Peter A. HOSNER, Luke B. KLICKA, Haw C. LIM, Árpád S. NYÁRI,Yanhua QU, Sushma REDDY, Frederick H. SHELDON, FashengZOU 1 Biodiversity Institute, University of Kansas, Lawrence, KS 66045, USA 2 Key Laboratory of Zoological Systematics and Evolution, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China 3 Department of Biology, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611, USA 4 Department of Vertebrate Zoology, Smithsonian Institution, Washington DC20560, USA 5 Department of Integrative Biology, Oklahoma State University, Stillwater, OK 74078, USA 6 Biology Department, Loyola University Chicago, Chicago, IL 60660, USA 7 Museum of Natural Science and Department of Biological Sciences, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA 70803, USA 8 Guangdong Entomological Institute, Guangzhou, 510260, China * Guest editors of special column; other authors listed alphabetically. E-mail: town@ku.edu, moyle@ku.edu, leifm@ioz.ac.cn

Mapping the Potential Distribution of the Critically Endangered Forest Owlet Heteroglaux blewitti in India

Abstract: The Forest Owlet Heteroglaux blewitti was discovered and described scientifically in the 1870s, but went unrecorded since 1880s until 1997; it was believed to be extinct for 113 years. Although the species was rediscovered and has now been intensively studied, the limits of its geographic distribution remain poorly known. This study related known occurrences of the species to remote-sensed environmental landscape characteristics to generate ecological niche models that helped to identify potential distributional areas. We detected the species during field surveys at one location not known previously to hold populations of the species, and identified many other possible areas of distribution for the species using our niche models.

Rethinking phylogeographic structure and historical refugia in the rufous-capped babbler Cyanoderma ruficeps in light of range-wide genetic sampling and paleodistributional reconstructions

Abstract: Combining ecological niche modeling with phylogeography has become a popular approach to understand how his- torical climate changes have created and maintained population structure. However, methodological choices in geographic ex- tents and environmental layer sets employed in modeling may affect results and interpretations profoundly. Here, we infer range-wide phylogeographic structure and model ecological niches of Cyanoderma ruficeps, and compare results to previous stu- dies that examined this species across mainland China and Taiwan only. Use of dense taxon sampling of closely related species as outgroups question C. ruficeps monophyly. Furthermore, previously unsampled C. ruficeps populations from central Vietnam were closely related to disjunct western populations (Nepal, Tibet, Myanmar, Yunnan), rather than to geographically proximate populations in northern Vietnam and eastern China. Phylogeographic structure is more complex than previously appreciated; niche model projections to Last Glacial Maximum climate scenarios identified larger areas of suitable conditions than previous studies, but potential distributional limits differed markedly between climate models employed and were dependent upon inter- pretation of non-analogous historical climate scenarios. Previously identified population expansion across central China may re- sult from colonization from refugial distributions during the Last Interglacial, rather than the Last Glacial Maximum, as pre- viously understood (Current Zoology 61 (5): 901-909, 2015).

Climatic niche and flowering and fruiting phenology of an epiphytic plant

Abstract: Species have geographic distributions constrained by combinations of abiotic factors, biotic factors and dispersal-related factors. Abiotic requirements vary across the life stages for a species; for plant species, a particularly important life stage is when the plant flowers and develops seeds. A previous year-long experiment showed that ambi- ent temperature of 5-35 8C, relative humidity of .50 % and ≤15 consecutive rainless days are crucial abiotic conditions for Spanish moss (Tillandsia usneoides L.). Here, we explore whether these optimal physiological intervals relate to the timing of the flowering and fruiting periods of Spanish moss across its range. As Spanish moss has a broad geographic range, we examined herbarium specimens to detect and characterize flowering/fruiting periods for the species across the Americas; we used high-temporal-resolution climatic data to assess the availability of optimal conditions for Spanish moss populations during each population's flowering period. We explored how long populations experience suboptimal conditions and found that most populations experience suboptimal conditions in at least one environmental dimension. Flowering and fruiting periods of Spanish moss populations are either being optimized for one or a few parameters or may be adjusted such that all parameters are suboptimal. Spanish moss populations appear to be constrained most closely by minimum temperature during this period.

Good and bad news about Ebola.

Abstract: © 2015 A. Townsend Peterson. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.