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Using Multivariate Statistics

This chapter suggests that delinquency conceals two distinct categories of individuals, each with a unique natural history and etiology: A small group engages in antisocial behavior of one sort or another at every life stage, whereas a larger group is antisocial only during adolescence. According to the theory of life-course-persistent antisocial behavior, children's neuropsychological problems interact cumulatively with their criminogenic environments across development, culminating m a pathological personality. According to the theory of adolescence-limited antisocial behavior, a contemporary maturity gap encourages teens to mimic antisocial behavior in ways that are normative and adjustive. There are marked individual differences in the stability of antisocial behavior. The chapter reviews the mysterious relationship between age and antisocial behavior. Some youths who refrain from antisocial behavior may, for some reason, not sense the maturity gap and therefore lack the hypothesized motivation for experimenting with crime.

/pdf/adolescence-limited-and-life-course-persistent-antisocial-52vil00qlw.pdf

Adolescence-limited and life-course-persistent antisocial behavior: A developmental taxonomy.

ContextUncertainties exist about prevalence and correlates of major depressive
disorder (MDD).ObjectiveTo present nationally representative data on prevalence and correlates
of MDD by Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders,
Fourth Edition (DSM-IV) criteria, and on study
patterns and correlates of treatment and treatment adequacy from the recently
completed National Comorbidity Survey Replication (NCS-R).DesignFace-to-face household survey conducted from February 2001 to December
2002.SettingThe 48 contiguous United States.ParticipantsHousehold residents ages 18 years or older (N = 9090) who responded
to the NCS-R survey.Main Outcome MeasuresPrevalence and correlates of MDD using the World Health Organization's
(WHO) Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI), 12-month severity
with the Quick Inventory of Depressive Symptomatology Self-Report (QIDS-SR),
the Sheehan Disability Scale (SDS), and the WHO disability assessment scale
(WHO-DAS). Clinical reinterviews used the Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-IV.ResultsThe prevalence of CIDI MDD for lifetime was 16.2% (95% confidence interval
[CI], 15.1-17.3) (32.6-35.1 million US adults) and for 12-month was 6.6% (95%
CI, 5.9-7.3) (13.1-14.2 million US adults). Virtually all CIDI 12-month cases
were independently classified as clinically significant using the QIDS-SR,
with 10.4% mild, 38.6% moderate, 38.0% severe, and 12.9% very severe. Mean
episode duration was 16 weeks (95% CI, 15.1-17.3). Role impairment as measured
by SDS was substantial as indicated by 59.3% of 12-month cases with severe
or very severe role impairment. Most lifetime (72.1%) and 12-month (78.5%)
cases had comorbid CIDI/DSM-IV disorders, with MDD
only rarely primary. Although 51.6% (95% CI, 46.1-57.2) of 12-month cases
received health care treatment for MDD, treatment was adequate in only 41.9%
(95% CI, 35.9-47.9) of these cases, resulting in 21.7% (95% CI, 18.1-25.2)
of 12-month MDD being adequately treated. Sociodemographic correlates of treatment
were far less numerous than those of prevalence.ConclusionsMajor depressive disorder is a common disorder, widely distributed in
the population, and usually associated with substantial symptom severity and
role impairment. While the recent increase in treatment is encouraging, inadequate
treatment is a serious concern. Emphasis on screening and expansion of treatment
needs to be accompanied by a parallel emphasis on treatment quality improvement.

/pdf/the-epidemiology-of-major-depressive-disorder-results-from-2kfxdgis3p.pdf

The epidemiology of major depressive disorder: results from the National Comorbidity Survey Replication (NCS-R).

This paper presents a critical appraisal of resilience, a construct connoting the maintenance of positive adaptation by individuals despite experiences of significant adversity. As empirical research on resilience has burgeoned in recent years, criticisms have been levied at work in this area. These critiques have generally focused on ambiguities in definitions and central terminology; heterogeneity in risks experienced and competence achieved by individuals viewed as resilient; instability of the phenomenon of resilience; and concerns regarding the usefulness of resilience as a theoretical construct. We address each identified criticism in turn, proposing solutions for those we view as legitimate and clarifying misunderstandings surrounding those we believe to be less valid. We conclude that work on resilience possesses substantial potential for augmenting the understanding of processes affecting at-risk individuals. Realization of the potential embodied by this construct, however, will remain constrained without continued scientific attention to some of the serious conceptual and methodological pitfalls that have been noted by skeptics and proponents alike.

/pdf/the-construct-of-resilience-a-critical-evaluation-and-2zm15ij070.pdf

The Construct of Resilience: A Critical Evaluation and Guidelines for Future Work

The world report on violence and health.

It is well known that homicide offenders and their victims have many characteristics in common (Broidy et al., 2003; Federal Bureau of Investigation, 2003; Snyder & Sickmund, 1999). Less clear is the extent to which predictors of homicide offenders are similar to the predictors of homicide victims. The reason is the ­scarcity of ­longitudinal studies which have information from diverse informants about the early antecedents of homicide victimization. Two major sets of questions are ­important here.

Early Risk Factors for Homicide Victims and Shooting Victims

This chapter contains a thorough review of the literature on prison
 crowding and bullying and misconduct. It contains a discussion of
 theories and empirical studies and highlights potential
 methodological and conceptual challenges that researchers in this
 area will encounter.

Effects of Prison Crowding on Prison Misconduct and Bullying

Background: Rates of violence in the USA have fluctuated widely over the past few decades. Theorists have examined period and cohort effects, but there appear to be no studies examining these effects on progression in developmental pathways towards violence. Objective: To assess whether differences in progression among individuals in the Pittsburgh Youth Study are consistent with period or cohort effects. Design: Multivariate logistic regression was conducted to examine differences between cohorts in the odds of progressing through the developmental pathway towards violence. Adjusted and unadjusted odds ratios (ORs) and corresponding 95% CI are reported. Setting: Pittsburgh Pennsylvania, from 1987 to 2000. Subjects: Two cohorts of male adolescents from the Pittsburgh Youth Study. The youngest cohort (n = 503) was followed from median ages 7 to 20, and the oldest cohort (n = 506) was followed up from median ages 13 to 25. Main outcome measure: The odds of progression along a developmental pathway towards violence. Results: There was no statistically significant difference between the cohorts in progression from minor aggression to physical fighting (OR = 1.13, 95% CI 0.77 to 1.65). However, after adjustment for major risk factors, the oldest cohort was significantly more likely to progress from physical fighting to violence (OR = 2.34, 95% CI 1.39 to 3.92). Conclusions: These results provide initial evidence that cohort effects, which would be present early in development, do not contribute significantly to later differences in reported violence and raises the possibility of whether period effects can explain these differences.

https://injuryprevention.bmj.com/content/injuryprev/14/5/311.full.pdf

Cohort differences in the progression of developmental pathways: evidence for period effects on secular trends of violence in males

Other than official data, self-report data is the second most utilized source for information on offending. Recognizing the inherent limitations of official and self-report data in terms of sources for crime measurement, this chapter provides an in-depth exploration into the prevalence and frequency of offending among the Cambridge Study in Delinquent Development males with a specific focus on the similarities, differences, and overlap across offending estimates from the two crime data sources (official versus self-report). The ratio of self-reported to official offenses is also reviewed and disaggregated by offense type.

Self-Reported Versus Official Offending

Understanding How Offending Prevalence and Frequency Change with Age in the Cambridge Study in Delinquent Development Using Bayesian Statistical Models

David P. Farrington

Papers

Early Risk Factors for Homicide Victims and Shooting Victims

Effects of Prison Crowding on Prison Misconduct and Bullying

Cohort differences in the progression of developmental pathways: evidence for period effects on secular trends of violence in males

Self-Reported Versus Official Offending

Understanding How Offending Prevalence and Frequency Change with Age in the Cambridge Study in Delinquent Development Using Bayesian Statistical Models