Causal attribution of recent biological trends to climate change is complicated because non-climatic influences dominate local, short-term biological changes. Any underlying signal from climate change is likely to be revealed by analyses that seek systematic trends across diverse species and geographic regions; however, debates within the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reveal several definitions of a 'systematic trend'. Here, we explore these differences, apply diverse analyses to more than 1,700 species, and show that recent biological trends match climate change predictions. Global meta-analyses documented significant range shifts averaging 6.1 km per decade towards the poles (or metres per decade upward), and significant mean advancement of spring events by 2.3 days per decade. We define a diagnostic fingerprint of temporal and spatial 'sign-switching' responses uniquely predicted by twentieth century climate trends. Among appropriate long-term/large-scale/multi-species data sets, this diagnostic fingerprint was found for 279 species. This suite of analyses generates 'very high confidence' (as laid down by the IPCC) that climate change is already affecting living systems.

/pdf/a-globally-coherent-fingerprint-of-climate-change-impacts-5duzh6vc6b.pdf

A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems

There is now ample evidence of the ecological impacts of recent climate change, from polar terrestrial to tropical marine environments. The responses of both flora and fauna span an array of ecosystems and organizational hierarchies, from the species to the community levels. Despite continued uncertainty as to community and ecosystem trajectories under global change, our review exposes a coherent pattern of ecological change across systems. Although we are only at an early stage in the projected trends of global warming, ecological responses to recent climate change are already clearly visible.

/pdf/ecological-responses-to-recent-climate-change-5dddm9xeiv.pdf

Ecological responses to recent climate change.

Drafting Authors: Neil Adger, Pramod Aggarwal, Shardul Agrawala, Joseph Alcamo, Abdelkader Allali, Oleg Anisimov, Nigel Arnell, Michel Boko, Osvaldo Canziani, Timothy Carter, Gino Casassa, Ulisses Confalonieri, Rex Victor Cruz, Edmundo de Alba Alcaraz, William Easterling, Christopher Field, Andreas Fischlin, Blair Fitzharris, Carlos Gay García, Clair Hanson, Hideo Harasawa, Kevin Hennessy, Saleemul Huq, Roger Jones, Lucka Kajfež Bogataj, David Karoly, Richard Klein, Zbigniew Kundzewicz, Murari Lal, Rodel Lasco, Geoff Love, Xianfu Lu, Graciela Magrín, Luis José Mata, Roger McLean, Bettina Menne, Guy Midgley, Nobuo Mimura, Monirul Qader Mirza, José Moreno, Linda Mortsch, Isabelle Niang-Diop, Robert Nicholls, Béla Nováky, Leonard Nurse, Anthony Nyong, Michael Oppenheimer, Jean Palutikof, Martin Parry, Anand Patwardhan, Patricia Romero Lankao, Cynthia Rosenzweig, Stephen Schneider, Serguei Semenov, Joel Smith, John Stone, Jean-Pascal van Ypersele, David Vaughan, Coleen Vogel, Thomas Wilbanks, Poh Poh Wong, Shaohong Wu, Gary Yohe

Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Ecological changes in the phenology and distribution of plants and animals are occurring in all well-studied marine, freshwater, and terrestrial groups These observed changes are heavily biased in the directions predicted from global warming and have been linked to local or regional climate change through correlations between climate and biological variation, field and laboratory experiments, and physiological research Range-restricted species, particularly polar and mountaintop species, show severe range contractions and have been the first groups in which entire species have gone extinct due to recent climate change Tropical coral reefs and amphibians have been most negatively affected Predator-prey and plant-insect interactions have been disrupted when interacting species have responded differently to warming Evolutionary adaptations to warmer conditions have occurred in the interiors of species’ ranges, and resource use and dispersal have evolved rapidly at expanding range margins Observed genetic shifts modulate local effects of climate change, but there is little evidence that they will mitigate negative effects at the species level

https://www.fws.gov/southwest/es/documents/R2ES/LitCited/LPC_2012/Parmesan_2006.pdf

Ecological and Evolutionary Responses to Recent Climate Change

The authors propose a new climatic drought index: the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI). The SPEI is based on precipitation and temperature data, and it has the advantage of combining multiscalar character with the capacity to include the effects of temperature variability on drought assessment. The procedure to calculate the index is detailed and involves a climatic water balance, the accumulation of deficit/surplus at different time scales, and adjustment to a log-logistic probability distribution. Mathematically, the SPEI is similar to the standardized precipitation index (SPI), but it includes the role of temperature. Because the SPEI is based on a water balance, it can be compared to the self-calibrated Palmer drought severity index (sc-PDSI). Time series of the three indices were compared for a set of observatories with different climate characteristics, located in different parts of the world. Under global warming conditions, only the sc-PDSI and SPEI identified an...

/pdf/a-multiscalar-drought-index-sensitive-to-global-warming-the-370wre0ti5.pdf

A Multiscalar Drought Index Sensitive to Global Warming: The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index

The Great Flood of 1993

Lake Michigan reached record-high levels during 1985 and 1986 just 10 years after attaining its previous record highs of this century. The climate of the basin has become cloudier and cooler over the past 40 years, loading to decreased evaporation and transpiration, but the principal factor for the increased water in the basin is extremely heavy precipitation in the most recent 15 years. Precipitation in this 15-year period averaged 107 percent above the 90-year average, and since 1970 only two years have been dry and 10 have been classified as wet, or much above normal. No other prior period has experienced comparably wet conditions since quality basin-wide records began in 1895. The current record-high levels on Lake Michigan and all other Great Lakes are producing a mixture of impacts including advantages to shipping and hydropower generation and disadvantages to shorelines. Most of the impacts on Lake Michigan have been disastrous with beaches destroyed, shorelines eroded, mid near-shore stru...

Climate Fluctuations and Record-High Levels of Lake Michigan.

Historical data on weather extremes and their effects on the nation's economy since the 1940s were assessed to develop annual measures of nationwide losses and to assess their temporal behavior. Trends were upward for certain key hazards during 1950–1997 including losses associated with winter storms, floods, and crops and for the incidence of heavy rains. Trends were downward for energy costs and for losses from hurricanes, thunderstorms, and windstorms. Nine loss measures were used to calculate the nation's annual loss values for 1950–1997, and their order, based on magnitude, are energy costs, followed by losses from hurricanes, floods, severe thunderstorms, excessive moisture and temperature on crops, tornadoes, winter storms, hail, and windstorms. These variables will also be available in future years to allow continuing assessments. The 48-year average annual loss value was $17.47 billion (1997 dollars) with a 1-year maximum of $54.4 billion in 1972 and a minimum of $2.4 billion in 1963. The 48-year...

Losses from Weather Extremes in the United States

The winter of 1977–78 was the worst, on the basis of both low temperatures and snow, on record in Illinois and many other areas of the Midwest. Representatives of 70 households in central Illinois participated in a detailed study of how the extreme cold and snow affected individuals. The average added cost was $93 per individual, largely to residences and vehicles, and extrapolation of this to all Illinois citizens results in an estimated statewide cost in excess of $1 billion. This was compounded by a wide variety of personal inconveniences, worries, extra work, and injuries. There were no deaths in the sampled group but 52 Illinoisans were killed by the 18 winter storms. For those living in rural areas beyond the city of their employment, costs and inconveniences were greater. The average individual cost was $120, and rural dwellers experienced more travel problems, move delayed services, and more absences from school and work.

How a Severe Winter Impacts on Individuals

Freezing rain (FZRA) is well documented as a major weather hazard, producing damage to structures, the environment, and humans, and delaying various operations such as transportation. Assessing the risk of freezing rain events requires information for various areas of the nation about the frequency, duration, and intensity of these events along with the associated weather conditions that affect the damage caused by freezing rain. This includes temperatures (dry and wet bulb), the amount of precipitation, and winds during freezing rain. The purpose of this work was to develop a national and regional climatology of freezing rain events in the US for the period of 1928–2001 to addresses these conditions.

Stanley A. Changnon

Papers

The Great Flood of 1993

Climate Fluctuations and Record-High Levels of Lake Michigan.

Losses from Weather Extremes in the United States

How a Severe Winter Impacts on Individuals

Freezing rain events: a major weather hazard in the conterminous US