Causal attribution of recent biological trends to climate change is complicated because non-climatic influences dominate local, short-term biological changes. Any underlying signal from climate change is likely to be revealed by analyses that seek systematic trends across diverse species and geographic regions; however, debates within the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reveal several definitions of a 'systematic trend'. Here, we explore these differences, apply diverse analyses to more than 1,700 species, and show that recent biological trends match climate change predictions. Global meta-analyses documented significant range shifts averaging 6.1 km per decade towards the poles (or metres per decade upward), and significant mean advancement of spring events by 2.3 days per decade. We define a diagnostic fingerprint of temporal and spatial 'sign-switching' responses uniquely predicted by twentieth century climate trends. Among appropriate long-term/large-scale/multi-species data sets, this diagnostic fingerprint was found for 279 species. This suite of analyses generates 'very high confidence' (as laid down by the IPCC) that climate change is already affecting living systems.

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A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems

There is now ample evidence of the ecological impacts of recent climate change, from polar terrestrial to tropical marine environments. The responses of both flora and fauna span an array of ecosystems and organizational hierarchies, from the species to the community levels. Despite continued uncertainty as to community and ecosystem trajectories under global change, our review exposes a coherent pattern of ecological change across systems. Although we are only at an early stage in the projected trends of global warming, ecological responses to recent climate change are already clearly visible.

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Ecological responses to recent climate change.

Drafting Authors: Neil Adger, Pramod Aggarwal, Shardul Agrawala, Joseph Alcamo, Abdelkader Allali, Oleg Anisimov, Nigel Arnell, Michel Boko, Osvaldo Canziani, Timothy Carter, Gino Casassa, Ulisses Confalonieri, Rex Victor Cruz, Edmundo de Alba Alcaraz, William Easterling, Christopher Field, Andreas Fischlin, Blair Fitzharris, Carlos Gay García, Clair Hanson, Hideo Harasawa, Kevin Hennessy, Saleemul Huq, Roger Jones, Lucka Kajfež Bogataj, David Karoly, Richard Klein, Zbigniew Kundzewicz, Murari Lal, Rodel Lasco, Geoff Love, Xianfu Lu, Graciela Magrín, Luis José Mata, Roger McLean, Bettina Menne, Guy Midgley, Nobuo Mimura, Monirul Qader Mirza, José Moreno, Linda Mortsch, Isabelle Niang-Diop, Robert Nicholls, Béla Nováky, Leonard Nurse, Anthony Nyong, Michael Oppenheimer, Jean Palutikof, Martin Parry, Anand Patwardhan, Patricia Romero Lankao, Cynthia Rosenzweig, Stephen Schneider, Serguei Semenov, Joel Smith, John Stone, Jean-Pascal van Ypersele, David Vaughan, Coleen Vogel, Thomas Wilbanks, Poh Poh Wong, Shaohong Wu, Gary Yohe

Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Ecological changes in the phenology and distribution of plants and animals are occurring in all well-studied marine, freshwater, and terrestrial groups These observed changes are heavily biased in the directions predicted from global warming and have been linked to local or regional climate change through correlations between climate and biological variation, field and laboratory experiments, and physiological research Range-restricted species, particularly polar and mountaintop species, show severe range contractions and have been the first groups in which entire species have gone extinct due to recent climate change Tropical coral reefs and amphibians have been most negatively affected Predator-prey and plant-insect interactions have been disrupted when interacting species have responded differently to warming Evolutionary adaptations to warmer conditions have occurred in the interiors of species’ ranges, and resource use and dispersal have evolved rapidly at expanding range margins Observed genetic shifts modulate local effects of climate change, but there is little evidence that they will mitigate negative effects at the species level

https://www.fws.gov/southwest/es/documents/R2ES/LitCited/LPC_2012/Parmesan_2006.pdf

Ecological and Evolutionary Responses to Recent Climate Change

The authors propose a new climatic drought index: the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI). The SPEI is based on precipitation and temperature data, and it has the advantage of combining multiscalar character with the capacity to include the effects of temperature variability on drought assessment. The procedure to calculate the index is detailed and involves a climatic water balance, the accumulation of deficit/surplus at different time scales, and adjustment to a log-logistic probability distribution. Mathematically, the SPEI is similar to the standardized precipitation index (SPI), but it includes the role of temperature. Because the SPEI is based on a water balance, it can be compared to the self-calibrated Palmer drought severity index (sc-PDSI). Time series of the three indices were compared for a set of observatories with different climate characteristics, located in different parts of the world. Under global warming conditions, only the sc-PDSI and SPEI identified an...

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A Multiscalar Drought Index Sensitive to Global Warming: The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index

Pace Watershed Model (PWM): Volume 1: Model Development

Information on hail intensity is not readily available on a national or local scale. As a result, a study was made to obtain general estimates of the mean areal patterns of hail intensity in the central and northwestern continental United States. Although the results of the study are based on indirect measures of hail intensity developed from crop-insurance data, the results provide useful estimates of a phenomenon heretofore unmeasured. Intensity measures derived from crop-insurance data available for 19 states revealed that summer hailfalls at points in the lee of the Rocky Mountains were 5 to 15 times more intense than those in the Middle West. A good correlation was found for the mean intensity indices of states and the mean hailday frequencies, suggesting that the widely available climatological data on hail frequency could provide useful estimates of hail intensity in other states.

Crop-Hail Intensities in Central and Northwest United States

The characteristics of commonly used surface hail instruments are reviewed and instruments evaluated. The instruments evaluated have been classified into two major categories: integrating and recording. The integrating sensors are relatively inexpensive and provide certain useful hail data. The recording sensors are much more expensive but provide more useful data including time of hail. The review includes the principles of operation, types of data obtained, operational advantages and disadvantages, and approximate cost of each type of instrument.

A Review of Hail-Measuring Instruments.

A significant climate change can affect water resources and result in social and/or environmental impacts that can become policy issues. Review of the research in this emerging field of climate, water and policy reveals certain key issues that affect the transfer of information to policymakers. It also reveals the necessity for interdisciplinary analyses, a lack of information about parts of the hydrologic cycle, and the limited views many hydrologists have about climate changes and how to deal with them. The emphasis of recent research has been on effects on precipitation of CO, induced global warming on how climate changes might alter extreme events (droughts and floods), the relationship of climate alterations and water quality, and development of methods to better ascertain linkages of climate, water, and society. Policymakers attempting to address the effects of climate change on water resources generally ask six questions including: (1) the type of climate change apt to occur; 2) the change...

Stanley A. Changnon

Papers

Pace Watershed Model (PWM): Volume 1: Model Development

Crop-Hail Intensities in Central and Northwest United States

A Review of Hail-Measuring Instruments.

An Assessment of Climate Change, Water Resources, and Policy Research

A Plan for Research on Floods and Their Mitigation in the United States