Causal attribution of recent biological trends to climate change is complicated because non-climatic influences dominate local, short-term biological changes. Any underlying signal from climate change is likely to be revealed by analyses that seek systematic trends across diverse species and geographic regions; however, debates within the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reveal several definitions of a 'systematic trend'. Here, we explore these differences, apply diverse analyses to more than 1,700 species, and show that recent biological trends match climate change predictions. Global meta-analyses documented significant range shifts averaging 6.1 km per decade towards the poles (or metres per decade upward), and significant mean advancement of spring events by 2.3 days per decade. We define a diagnostic fingerprint of temporal and spatial 'sign-switching' responses uniquely predicted by twentieth century climate trends. Among appropriate long-term/large-scale/multi-species data sets, this diagnostic fingerprint was found for 279 species. This suite of analyses generates 'very high confidence' (as laid down by the IPCC) that climate change is already affecting living systems.

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A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems

There is now ample evidence of the ecological impacts of recent climate change, from polar terrestrial to tropical marine environments. The responses of both flora and fauna span an array of ecosystems and organizational hierarchies, from the species to the community levels. Despite continued uncertainty as to community and ecosystem trajectories under global change, our review exposes a coherent pattern of ecological change across systems. Although we are only at an early stage in the projected trends of global warming, ecological responses to recent climate change are already clearly visible.

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Ecological responses to recent climate change.

Drafting Authors: Neil Adger, Pramod Aggarwal, Shardul Agrawala, Joseph Alcamo, Abdelkader Allali, Oleg Anisimov, Nigel Arnell, Michel Boko, Osvaldo Canziani, Timothy Carter, Gino Casassa, Ulisses Confalonieri, Rex Victor Cruz, Edmundo de Alba Alcaraz, William Easterling, Christopher Field, Andreas Fischlin, Blair Fitzharris, Carlos Gay García, Clair Hanson, Hideo Harasawa, Kevin Hennessy, Saleemul Huq, Roger Jones, Lucka Kajfež Bogataj, David Karoly, Richard Klein, Zbigniew Kundzewicz, Murari Lal, Rodel Lasco, Geoff Love, Xianfu Lu, Graciela Magrín, Luis José Mata, Roger McLean, Bettina Menne, Guy Midgley, Nobuo Mimura, Monirul Qader Mirza, José Moreno, Linda Mortsch, Isabelle Niang-Diop, Robert Nicholls, Béla Nováky, Leonard Nurse, Anthony Nyong, Michael Oppenheimer, Jean Palutikof, Martin Parry, Anand Patwardhan, Patricia Romero Lankao, Cynthia Rosenzweig, Stephen Schneider, Serguei Semenov, Joel Smith, John Stone, Jean-Pascal van Ypersele, David Vaughan, Coleen Vogel, Thomas Wilbanks, Poh Poh Wong, Shaohong Wu, Gary Yohe

Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Ecological changes in the phenology and distribution of plants and animals are occurring in all well-studied marine, freshwater, and terrestrial groups These observed changes are heavily biased in the directions predicted from global warming and have been linked to local or regional climate change through correlations between climate and biological variation, field and laboratory experiments, and physiological research Range-restricted species, particularly polar and mountaintop species, show severe range contractions and have been the first groups in which entire species have gone extinct due to recent climate change Tropical coral reefs and amphibians have been most negatively affected Predator-prey and plant-insect interactions have been disrupted when interacting species have responded differently to warming Evolutionary adaptations to warmer conditions have occurred in the interiors of species’ ranges, and resource use and dispersal have evolved rapidly at expanding range margins Observed genetic shifts modulate local effects of climate change, but there is little evidence that they will mitigate negative effects at the species level

https://www.fws.gov/southwest/es/documents/R2ES/LitCited/LPC_2012/Parmesan_2006.pdf

Ecological and Evolutionary Responses to Recent Climate Change

The authors propose a new climatic drought index: the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI). The SPEI is based on precipitation and temperature data, and it has the advantage of combining multiscalar character with the capacity to include the effects of temperature variability on drought assessment. The procedure to calculate the index is detailed and involves a climatic water balance, the accumulation of deficit/surplus at different time scales, and adjustment to a log-logistic probability distribution. Mathematically, the SPEI is similar to the standardized precipitation index (SPI), but it includes the role of temperature. Because the SPEI is based on a water balance, it can be compared to the self-calibrated Palmer drought severity index (sc-PDSI). Time series of the three indices were compared for a set of observatories with different climate characteristics, located in different parts of the world. Under global warming conditions, only the sc-PDSI and SPEI identified an...

/pdf/a-multiscalar-drought-index-sensitive-to-global-warming-the-370wre0ti5.pdf

A Multiscalar Drought Index Sensitive to Global Warming: The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index

Singularities in Severe Weather Events in Illinois

As part of research concerned with operational seeding and evaluation techniques, analyses were made of two warm-season seeding projects involving rainfall enhancement: a 5-year (1975–79) aircraft seeding program conducted in 15 southwestern Kansas counties, and a ground generator seeding project conducted in 3 counties of northwestern Oklahoma in 1972–76. Data for 153 and 111 seeding days in Kansas and Oklahoma, respectively, were used. Rainfall data were obtained from the climatic raingage network of the National Weather Service. Seeding-day data were gratified according to meteorological parameters, including synoptic storm type, storm motion, and plume movement derived from the low-level wind field. Comparisons of 24-hour rainfall amounts in target and control areas were made. Movable controls determined from storm motions obtained from hourly radar data and upper-level winds were used to minimize control contamination by the seeding agent. In the southwestern Kansas operation, results indica...

A Statistical–Meteorological Evaluation of Two Operational Seeding Projects

https://www.ideals.illinois.edu/bitstream/handle/2142/13384/RI117%20Changnon%20Final.pdf?sequence=2

2008: A Record Wet and Stormy Year in Illinois

We have completed a report relating to the evaluation of future operational modification projects. This is a short summary of that report offered to inform potential interested parties. Copies of the report can be obtained upon request. Our report treats the key issues and presents recommendations for weather modification operations. The primary objective is to provide guidance for achieving effective, reliable evaluation of seeding results, and, consequently, to establish credibility in these evaluations and provide scientific information leading to better understanding and greater skills in the future in this applied field of the atmospheric sciences.

https://www.ideals.illinois.edu/bitstream/handle/2142/72659/ISWSCR-240.pdf?sequence=2

Stanley A. Changnon

Papers

Singularities in Severe Weather Events in Illinois

A Statistical–Meteorological Evaluation of Two Operational Seeding Projects

2008: A Record Wet and Stormy Year in Illinois

Criteria for Weather Modification Operations and Effective Evaluation

Tornadoes in Illinois