Causal attribution of recent biological trends to climate change is complicated because non-climatic influences dominate local, short-term biological changes. Any underlying signal from climate change is likely to be revealed by analyses that seek systematic trends across diverse species and geographic regions; however, debates within the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reveal several definitions of a 'systematic trend'. Here, we explore these differences, apply diverse analyses to more than 1,700 species, and show that recent biological trends match climate change predictions. Global meta-analyses documented significant range shifts averaging 6.1 km per decade towards the poles (or metres per decade upward), and significant mean advancement of spring events by 2.3 days per decade. We define a diagnostic fingerprint of temporal and spatial 'sign-switching' responses uniquely predicted by twentieth century climate trends. Among appropriate long-term/large-scale/multi-species data sets, this diagnostic fingerprint was found for 279 species. This suite of analyses generates 'very high confidence' (as laid down by the IPCC) that climate change is already affecting living systems.

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A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems

There is now ample evidence of the ecological impacts of recent climate change, from polar terrestrial to tropical marine environments. The responses of both flora and fauna span an array of ecosystems and organizational hierarchies, from the species to the community levels. Despite continued uncertainty as to community and ecosystem trajectories under global change, our review exposes a coherent pattern of ecological change across systems. Although we are only at an early stage in the projected trends of global warming, ecological responses to recent climate change are already clearly visible.

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Ecological responses to recent climate change.

Drafting Authors: Neil Adger, Pramod Aggarwal, Shardul Agrawala, Joseph Alcamo, Abdelkader Allali, Oleg Anisimov, Nigel Arnell, Michel Boko, Osvaldo Canziani, Timothy Carter, Gino Casassa, Ulisses Confalonieri, Rex Victor Cruz, Edmundo de Alba Alcaraz, William Easterling, Christopher Field, Andreas Fischlin, Blair Fitzharris, Carlos Gay García, Clair Hanson, Hideo Harasawa, Kevin Hennessy, Saleemul Huq, Roger Jones, Lucka Kajfež Bogataj, David Karoly, Richard Klein, Zbigniew Kundzewicz, Murari Lal, Rodel Lasco, Geoff Love, Xianfu Lu, Graciela Magrín, Luis José Mata, Roger McLean, Bettina Menne, Guy Midgley, Nobuo Mimura, Monirul Qader Mirza, José Moreno, Linda Mortsch, Isabelle Niang-Diop, Robert Nicholls, Béla Nováky, Leonard Nurse, Anthony Nyong, Michael Oppenheimer, Jean Palutikof, Martin Parry, Anand Patwardhan, Patricia Romero Lankao, Cynthia Rosenzweig, Stephen Schneider, Serguei Semenov, Joel Smith, John Stone, Jean-Pascal van Ypersele, David Vaughan, Coleen Vogel, Thomas Wilbanks, Poh Poh Wong, Shaohong Wu, Gary Yohe

Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Ecological changes in the phenology and distribution of plants and animals are occurring in all well-studied marine, freshwater, and terrestrial groups These observed changes are heavily biased in the directions predicted from global warming and have been linked to local or regional climate change through correlations between climate and biological variation, field and laboratory experiments, and physiological research Range-restricted species, particularly polar and mountaintop species, show severe range contractions and have been the first groups in which entire species have gone extinct due to recent climate change Tropical coral reefs and amphibians have been most negatively affected Predator-prey and plant-insect interactions have been disrupted when interacting species have responded differently to warming Evolutionary adaptations to warmer conditions have occurred in the interiors of species’ ranges, and resource use and dispersal have evolved rapidly at expanding range margins Observed genetic shifts modulate local effects of climate change, but there is little evidence that they will mitigate negative effects at the species level

https://www.fws.gov/southwest/es/documents/R2ES/LitCited/LPC_2012/Parmesan_2006.pdf

Ecological and Evolutionary Responses to Recent Climate Change

The authors propose a new climatic drought index: the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI). The SPEI is based on precipitation and temperature data, and it has the advantage of combining multiscalar character with the capacity to include the effects of temperature variability on drought assessment. The procedure to calculate the index is detailed and involves a climatic water balance, the accumulation of deficit/surplus at different time scales, and adjustment to a log-logistic probability distribution. Mathematically, the SPEI is similar to the standardized precipitation index (SPI), but it includes the role of temperature. Because the SPEI is based on a water balance, it can be compared to the self-calibrated Palmer drought severity index (sc-PDSI). Time series of the three indices were compared for a set of observatories with different climate characteristics, located in different parts of the world. Under global warming conditions, only the sc-PDSI and SPEI identified an...

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A Multiscalar Drought Index Sensitive to Global Warming: The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index

The winter of 1977–78 in Illinois was one of the most severe since residents began keeping records. A series of intense winter storms struck the state beginning in late November and continuing through March. How do these storms compare with previous winters?

Winter Storms and the Record-Breaking Winter in Illinois

Through a computer-based system, weather data from Illinois are collected daily, checked, and summarized into various climatic products within hours after collection. This system was controlled for two years to demonstrate system feasibility, determine user interest and product desires, and plan for statewide urge. This study focuses on usage of system products. The private sector (agribusiness news media, and private industry) was the most frequent and persistent user group, suggesting user-pay as a possible approach for funding such a system. State and federal agencies, farmers, and extension agents also use the system but primarily during weather stress periods. The characteristics of usage should help in the design and selection of products in other emerging state and regional systems for dissemination of climate data and information. The usage patterns also indicate how climate conditions impact various private and public sectors in a humid continental climate.

Usage of Near Real-Time Climate Information.

Records of extremely damaging storms in the United States during the years 1949-2006 were assessed to define their temporal distribution. A change in climate due to global warming may lead to more ...

Temporal Changes in Extremely Damaging Storms

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Studies of two measures of flooding in the Chicago metropolitan area reveal a wide range of floods with the magnitude related to recurrence interval expressions of rain intensity. Minor type floods (in basements and underpasses) usually result from localized heavy rains (≤ 3-hour duration) with return intervals of 1 to 2 years, and more major floods result from rains with return intervals of 2 to 5 years (or more). Urban-factors help lead to increases in warm season rain events in Chicago with 1- to 4-year return intervals. These apparently help lead to 10 to 100 percent more flooding events in Chicago than expected. The range of increase varies depending on locale and type of flood, but the increases in storms should be accounted for in drainage designs.

Stanley A. Changnon

Papers

Winter Storms and the Record-Breaking Winter in Illinois

Usage of Near Real-Time Climate Information.

Temporal Changes in Extremely Damaging Storms

Summer Flooding at Chicago and Possible Relationships to Urban-Increased Heavy Rainfall

Evaluation of Potential Benefits of Weather Modification on Agriculture: Interim Report