Causal attribution of recent biological trends to climate change is complicated because non-climatic influences dominate local, short-term biological changes. Any underlying signal from climate change is likely to be revealed by analyses that seek systematic trends across diverse species and geographic regions; however, debates within the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reveal several definitions of a 'systematic trend'. Here, we explore these differences, apply diverse analyses to more than 1,700 species, and show that recent biological trends match climate change predictions. Global meta-analyses documented significant range shifts averaging 6.1 km per decade towards the poles (or metres per decade upward), and significant mean advancement of spring events by 2.3 days per decade. We define a diagnostic fingerprint of temporal and spatial 'sign-switching' responses uniquely predicted by twentieth century climate trends. Among appropriate long-term/large-scale/multi-species data sets, this diagnostic fingerprint was found for 279 species. This suite of analyses generates 'very high confidence' (as laid down by the IPCC) that climate change is already affecting living systems.

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A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems

There is now ample evidence of the ecological impacts of recent climate change, from polar terrestrial to tropical marine environments. The responses of both flora and fauna span an array of ecosystems and organizational hierarchies, from the species to the community levels. Despite continued uncertainty as to community and ecosystem trajectories under global change, our review exposes a coherent pattern of ecological change across systems. Although we are only at an early stage in the projected trends of global warming, ecological responses to recent climate change are already clearly visible.

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Ecological responses to recent climate change.

Drafting Authors: Neil Adger, Pramod Aggarwal, Shardul Agrawala, Joseph Alcamo, Abdelkader Allali, Oleg Anisimov, Nigel Arnell, Michel Boko, Osvaldo Canziani, Timothy Carter, Gino Casassa, Ulisses Confalonieri, Rex Victor Cruz, Edmundo de Alba Alcaraz, William Easterling, Christopher Field, Andreas Fischlin, Blair Fitzharris, Carlos Gay García, Clair Hanson, Hideo Harasawa, Kevin Hennessy, Saleemul Huq, Roger Jones, Lucka Kajfež Bogataj, David Karoly, Richard Klein, Zbigniew Kundzewicz, Murari Lal, Rodel Lasco, Geoff Love, Xianfu Lu, Graciela Magrín, Luis José Mata, Roger McLean, Bettina Menne, Guy Midgley, Nobuo Mimura, Monirul Qader Mirza, José Moreno, Linda Mortsch, Isabelle Niang-Diop, Robert Nicholls, Béla Nováky, Leonard Nurse, Anthony Nyong, Michael Oppenheimer, Jean Palutikof, Martin Parry, Anand Patwardhan, Patricia Romero Lankao, Cynthia Rosenzweig, Stephen Schneider, Serguei Semenov, Joel Smith, John Stone, Jean-Pascal van Ypersele, David Vaughan, Coleen Vogel, Thomas Wilbanks, Poh Poh Wong, Shaohong Wu, Gary Yohe

Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Ecological changes in the phenology and distribution of plants and animals are occurring in all well-studied marine, freshwater, and terrestrial groups These observed changes are heavily biased in the directions predicted from global warming and have been linked to local or regional climate change through correlations between climate and biological variation, field and laboratory experiments, and physiological research Range-restricted species, particularly polar and mountaintop species, show severe range contractions and have been the first groups in which entire species have gone extinct due to recent climate change Tropical coral reefs and amphibians have been most negatively affected Predator-prey and plant-insect interactions have been disrupted when interacting species have responded differently to warming Evolutionary adaptations to warmer conditions have occurred in the interiors of species’ ranges, and resource use and dispersal have evolved rapidly at expanding range margins Observed genetic shifts modulate local effects of climate change, but there is little evidence that they will mitigate negative effects at the species level

https://www.fws.gov/southwest/es/documents/R2ES/LitCited/LPC_2012/Parmesan_2006.pdf

Ecological and Evolutionary Responses to Recent Climate Change

The authors propose a new climatic drought index: the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI). The SPEI is based on precipitation and temperature data, and it has the advantage of combining multiscalar character with the capacity to include the effects of temperature variability on drought assessment. The procedure to calculate the index is detailed and involves a climatic water balance, the accumulation of deficit/surplus at different time scales, and adjustment to a log-logistic probability distribution. Mathematically, the SPEI is similar to the standardized precipitation index (SPI), but it includes the role of temperature. Because the SPEI is based on a water balance, it can be compared to the self-calibrated Palmer drought severity index (sc-PDSI). Time series of the three indices were compared for a set of observatories with different climate characteristics, located in different parts of the world. Under global warming conditions, only the sc-PDSI and SPEI identified an...

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A Multiscalar Drought Index Sensitive to Global Warming: The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index

This study concerned 1) effects and adjustments resulting from the record-low levels of Lake Michigan during 1964-1965, and 2) the potential effects of future low water levels resulting from expected climate changes. The low lake levels of the 1960s did not cause many major impacts at the time they occurred. The two major imparts discerned, damage to shoreline structures and encroachment of structures onto areas closer to the lake, resulted because of a sequence in which the low water levels were followed by high levels. Climate scenarios based on three global climate model estimates showing a doubling of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere, and scenarios based on extreme annual precipitation values from a 133-year period on the Great Lakes basin, were used to determine potential future low lake levels. Possible economic impacts were then determined. If the lake level is reduced from current averages by 0.86 to 1.0 meter during the next 50 years, economic impacts should not be very severe and could probably be handled largely by normal maintenance and replacement costs. Illinois shoreline impacts would cost about $ 100 million. If the lake level is reduced from current averages by 1.25 or 2.52 meters, more sizable economic imparts will occur, costing up to an estimated $291 million and $545 million, respectively. Parts of these costs could be handled by normal replacement costs, particularly if a master plan for changing affected facilities is implemented. The degree of climate change and ensuing lake level will greatly affect the seriousness of the economic outcome, but the environmental and water resource effects are extremely serious under all the climate scenarios. Reference: Changnon, Stanley A., Steven M. Leffler, and Robin Shealy. Effects of Past Low Lake Levels and Future Climate-Related Low Lake Levels on Lake Michigan, Chicago, and the Illinois Shoreline. Illinois State Water Survey, Champaign, Report of Investigation 110, 1989. Indexing Terms: Chicago area, climate change, climate scenarios, economic impact, Great Lakes, Illinois shoreline, Lake Michigan, low water, policy needs, prediction, water level fluctuations, water levels.

https://www.isws.illinois.edu/pubdoc/RI/ISWSRI-110.pdf

Effects of Past Low Lake Levels and Future Climate-Related Low Lake Levels on Lake Michigan, Chicago, and the Illinois Shoreline

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What Is and Is Not Known About Climate Change in Illinois: the Scientific Perspective

A methodology to estimate the potential value of proposed weather modification projects is described. An illustration of the technique is given to evaluate a hypothetical hail suppression project. This methodology requires that three crucial sets of data be developed: 1) the benefits attributable to altered weather, 2) the probabilities that such alterations can be accomplished, and 3) the costs associated with this technology. Given these data, a net benefit variable is determined and present value techniques are used to discount that quantity to current dollars.

A Methodology to Estimate the Value of Weather Modification Projects: An Illustration for Hail Suppression

Visibility changes caused by St. Louis

A climatology of sleet occurrences in the United States was compiled using data for 1950-2001 from 232 weather stations Sleet is one of the damaging forms of winter precipitation The average annual frequency of sleet events has a latitudinal distribution east of the Rockies with values ranging from less than 1 day a year in the Deep South to 5 or more days in the north The highest averages are 14-20 days in the northern plains Sleet does not occur in the Florida peninsula, extreme southern Texas and Arizona, and most of the southern half of California Most areas of the nation have had years with no sleet, but the annual minimum is 1 or 2 sleet days in the High Plains and New England Sleet first occurs in September in the mountainous areas and the Great Lakes; in October over large parts of the nation; in November in the South; and in December along the Gulf Coast Sleet is most frequent at night and least frequent in afternoon hours, and its average duration is 2-3 hours per event The season's last

Stanley A. Changnon

Papers

Effects of Past Low Lake Levels and Future Climate-Related Low Lake Levels on Lake Michigan, Chicago, and the Illinois Shoreline

What Is and Is Not Known About Climate Change in Illinois: the Scientific Perspective

A Methodology to Estimate the Value of Weather Modification Projects: An Illustration for Hail Suppression

Visibility changes caused by St. Louis

Climatology of Sleet in the United States