Causal attribution of recent biological trends to climate change is complicated because non-climatic influences dominate local, short-term biological changes. Any underlying signal from climate change is likely to be revealed by analyses that seek systematic trends across diverse species and geographic regions; however, debates within the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reveal several definitions of a 'systematic trend'. Here, we explore these differences, apply diverse analyses to more than 1,700 species, and show that recent biological trends match climate change predictions. Global meta-analyses documented significant range shifts averaging 6.1 km per decade towards the poles (or metres per decade upward), and significant mean advancement of spring events by 2.3 days per decade. We define a diagnostic fingerprint of temporal and spatial 'sign-switching' responses uniquely predicted by twentieth century climate trends. Among appropriate long-term/large-scale/multi-species data sets, this diagnostic fingerprint was found for 279 species. This suite of analyses generates 'very high confidence' (as laid down by the IPCC) that climate change is already affecting living systems.

/pdf/a-globally-coherent-fingerprint-of-climate-change-impacts-5duzh6vc6b.pdf

A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems

There is now ample evidence of the ecological impacts of recent climate change, from polar terrestrial to tropical marine environments. The responses of both flora and fauna span an array of ecosystems and organizational hierarchies, from the species to the community levels. Despite continued uncertainty as to community and ecosystem trajectories under global change, our review exposes a coherent pattern of ecological change across systems. Although we are only at an early stage in the projected trends of global warming, ecological responses to recent climate change are already clearly visible.

/pdf/ecological-responses-to-recent-climate-change-5dddm9xeiv.pdf

Ecological responses to recent climate change.

Drafting Authors: Neil Adger, Pramod Aggarwal, Shardul Agrawala, Joseph Alcamo, Abdelkader Allali, Oleg Anisimov, Nigel Arnell, Michel Boko, Osvaldo Canziani, Timothy Carter, Gino Casassa, Ulisses Confalonieri, Rex Victor Cruz, Edmundo de Alba Alcaraz, William Easterling, Christopher Field, Andreas Fischlin, Blair Fitzharris, Carlos Gay García, Clair Hanson, Hideo Harasawa, Kevin Hennessy, Saleemul Huq, Roger Jones, Lucka Kajfež Bogataj, David Karoly, Richard Klein, Zbigniew Kundzewicz, Murari Lal, Rodel Lasco, Geoff Love, Xianfu Lu, Graciela Magrín, Luis José Mata, Roger McLean, Bettina Menne, Guy Midgley, Nobuo Mimura, Monirul Qader Mirza, José Moreno, Linda Mortsch, Isabelle Niang-Diop, Robert Nicholls, Béla Nováky, Leonard Nurse, Anthony Nyong, Michael Oppenheimer, Jean Palutikof, Martin Parry, Anand Patwardhan, Patricia Romero Lankao, Cynthia Rosenzweig, Stephen Schneider, Serguei Semenov, Joel Smith, John Stone, Jean-Pascal van Ypersele, David Vaughan, Coleen Vogel, Thomas Wilbanks, Poh Poh Wong, Shaohong Wu, Gary Yohe

Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Ecological changes in the phenology and distribution of plants and animals are occurring in all well-studied marine, freshwater, and terrestrial groups These observed changes are heavily biased in the directions predicted from global warming and have been linked to local or regional climate change through correlations between climate and biological variation, field and laboratory experiments, and physiological research Range-restricted species, particularly polar and mountaintop species, show severe range contractions and have been the first groups in which entire species have gone extinct due to recent climate change Tropical coral reefs and amphibians have been most negatively affected Predator-prey and plant-insect interactions have been disrupted when interacting species have responded differently to warming Evolutionary adaptations to warmer conditions have occurred in the interiors of species’ ranges, and resource use and dispersal have evolved rapidly at expanding range margins Observed genetic shifts modulate local effects of climate change, but there is little evidence that they will mitigate negative effects at the species level

https://www.fws.gov/southwest/es/documents/R2ES/LitCited/LPC_2012/Parmesan_2006.pdf

Ecological and Evolutionary Responses to Recent Climate Change

The authors propose a new climatic drought index: the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI). The SPEI is based on precipitation and temperature data, and it has the advantage of combining multiscalar character with the capacity to include the effects of temperature variability on drought assessment. The procedure to calculate the index is detailed and involves a climatic water balance, the accumulation of deficit/surplus at different time scales, and adjustment to a log-logistic probability distribution. Mathematically, the SPEI is similar to the standardized precipitation index (SPI), but it includes the role of temperature. Because the SPEI is based on a water balance, it can be compared to the self-calibrated Palmer drought severity index (sc-PDSI). Time series of the three indices were compared for a set of observatories with different climate characteristics, located in different parts of the world. Under global warming conditions, only the sc-PDSI and SPEI identified an...

/pdf/a-multiscalar-drought-index-sensitive-to-global-warming-the-370wre0ti5.pdf

A Multiscalar Drought Index Sensitive to Global Warming: The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index

In the 1949-2008 data period, the nation experienced 1,506 storm catastrophes (each causing losses of $1 million or more), and these caused insured losses totaling $368.1 billion. Catastrophes were most frequent in the eastern half of the nation, as were their losses, with 82% of catastrophes there and 91% of the nation's losses. The highest regional loss for 1949-2008 was $147.5 billion in the Southeast. Regional ranks based on average losses differed from those based on the 60-year frequency of catastrophes. The distributions of catastrophes and their losses were examined for the three 20-year periods during 1949-2008. The first period, 1949-1968, had fewer catastrophes in most regions than the two later periods, with less than 20% of the total catastrophes. In six regions, average losses per catastrophe were highest in the period 1949-1968, while average losses were highest in 1989-2008 in the Central, Southeast, and Southwest regions. In all but the Southwest region, average storm losses were lowest i...

Geographical Distribution of Weather Catastrophes in the United States

Two insurance indices, which integrate storm types with their losses from 1948 to 1994, were examined to assess the frequency and intensity of damaging weather in the USA from 1991 to 1994. These indices adjust for changing socio‒economic conditions, allowing meaningful temporal assessment of 1991–1994 conditions against those in earlier years.



Catastrophes, as defined by property loss insurers, were assessed for two groups, those 707 storms with insured losses between $10 and $100 million and those 189 with greater than $100 million. Both categories experienced their greatest frequency and caused more loss during the 1991–1994 period than in any prior period. However, the temporal behaviour of annual frequency and losses for both categories were very different, with steady increases found for the $10 to $100 million catastrophes, while the number of >$100 million catastrophes exhibited a high‒low‒high distribution and the annual cost distribution was flat with a few isolated peaks. For both categories the temporal behaviour of storm intensity was similar, with moderate intensities found in the recent period and the highest intensities in the 1950s. The crop‒hail losses were high in 1992–1994, and the annual loss costs for the 1948–1994 period had a U‒shaped time distribution similar to that of the >$100 million catastrophes.



Weather conditions (USA mean temperature and surface cyclone frequency) were found to largely define: (i) when major, highly expensive weather events occur (and their annual losses), and (ii) how intense catastrophic storm conditions and crop‒damaging hailstorms are during each year. Conversely, the shifting target (population as an index) for damaging (non‒hurricane) storms across the USA is the major factor in ‘creating’ storms with losses reaching into the low ($10 million) to moderate ($100 million) range. © 1998 Royal Meteorological Society.

Climatological relevance of major USA weather losses during 1991–1994

The winter of 1981-1982 was Illinois' fourth severe winter in six years and the second most severe on record. Eighteen severe winter storms equalled the record number set in the winter of 1977-1978. The winter was unusually long, lasting from late November through early April. This report examines the climatology of the winter in regard to storm characteristics, snowfall, and temperature and contains a general synoptic analysis of each storm. Mean upper atmospheric circulation patterns of this and three previous severe winters are compared. Impacts of the severe storms and the winter in general are discussed in terms of transportation, utilities, public health, government, agriculture, and the environment. The winter of 1981-1982 had the greatest impact in central and southern Illinois. Up to 20 inches of snow and blizzard-like conditions in south central Illinois during the storm of 29-31 January led to it being classified as the most damaging of the winter. The storms and cold of the winter were responsible for 34 deaths and at least 550 injuries statewide. Transportation and energy usage and costs were most affected by the winter weather. Serious agricultural damage resulted from the severe cold, and both the snow and cold had detrimental effects on wildlife. Reference: Hilberg, Steven D., Peter G. Vinzani, and Stanley A. Changnon, Jr. The Severe Winter of 1981-1982 in Illinois. Illinois State Water Survey, Champaign, Report of Investigation 104, 1983. Indexing Terms: Glaze, heavy snow, ice, Illinois, midwestern snowstorm, severe winter storm, snow cover, storm damage, synoptic analysis, upper level circulation. STATE OF ILLINOIS HON. JAMES R. THOMPSON, Governor DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY AND NATURAL RESOURCES MICHAEL B. WITTE, B.A., Director BOARD OF NATURAL RESOURCES AND CONSERVATION Michael B. Witte, B.A., Chairman Walter E. Hanson, M.S., Engineering Laurence L. Sloss, Ph.D., Geology H. S. Gutowsky, Ph.D., Chemistry Lorin I. Nevling, Ph.D., Forestry Robert L. Metcalf, Ph.D., Biology Daniel C. Drucker, Ph.D. University of Illinois John C. Guyon, Ph.D. Southern Illinois University Funds derived from University of Illinois administered grants and contracts were used to produce this report. STATE WATER SURVEY DIVISION STANLEY A. CHANGNON, JR., M.S., Chief

The Severe Winter of 1981-1982 in Illinois

Measurements of haze, smoke, dust, and visibility in the midwest available from 1901 to 1980 reveal sizable temporal fluctuations. These appear useful as surrogates of air pollutants not measured before 1950. Their historical record reflects both fluctuations in climate conditions and changing sources of major pollutants (such as the shift from coal to oil or gas as the primary fuels during 1950s, and the regionally extensive vehicular traffic that had become a major pollutant source since World War II). Regional uniformity found since the 1950s reflects integration of both area and point sources, and a general decrease of visibility from 1950 to 1970. Air quality regulations may have had little affect on haze, smoke, and dust except at very large cities where improvements in visibility have occurred since 1970.

Historical Atmospheric Transmission Changes and Changes in Midwestern Air Pollution

The fields of planned and inadvertent weather are reviewed The history, major problems, current scientific status, and research needs are assessed Planned weather modification has been plagued by groups with conflicting interests and views, and most of the major US experiments have failed owing to various problems Basic research in cloud physics and dynamics is needed but the field now has the expertise and instrumentation to make major advances Inadvertent weather modification studies have defined many of the urban influences but studies of regional-scale effects from irrigation and aircraft contrails need to be pursued Studies are recommended to define better the social and environmental impacts from altered weather

Stanley A. Changnon

Papers

Geographical Distribution of Weather Catastrophes in the United States

Climatological relevance of major USA weather losses during 1991–1994

The Severe Winter of 1981-1982 in Illinois

Historical Atmospheric Transmission Changes and Changes in Midwestern Air Pollution

Purposeful and accidental weather modification: our current understanding