Causal attribution of recent biological trends to climate change is complicated because non-climatic influences dominate local, short-term biological changes. Any underlying signal from climate change is likely to be revealed by analyses that seek systematic trends across diverse species and geographic regions; however, debates within the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reveal several definitions of a 'systematic trend'. Here, we explore these differences, apply diverse analyses to more than 1,700 species, and show that recent biological trends match climate change predictions. Global meta-analyses documented significant range shifts averaging 6.1 km per decade towards the poles (or metres per decade upward), and significant mean advancement of spring events by 2.3 days per decade. We define a diagnostic fingerprint of temporal and spatial 'sign-switching' responses uniquely predicted by twentieth century climate trends. Among appropriate long-term/large-scale/multi-species data sets, this diagnostic fingerprint was found for 279 species. This suite of analyses generates 'very high confidence' (as laid down by the IPCC) that climate change is already affecting living systems.

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A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems

There is now ample evidence of the ecological impacts of recent climate change, from polar terrestrial to tropical marine environments. The responses of both flora and fauna span an array of ecosystems and organizational hierarchies, from the species to the community levels. Despite continued uncertainty as to community and ecosystem trajectories under global change, our review exposes a coherent pattern of ecological change across systems. Although we are only at an early stage in the projected trends of global warming, ecological responses to recent climate change are already clearly visible.

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Ecological responses to recent climate change.

Drafting Authors: Neil Adger, Pramod Aggarwal, Shardul Agrawala, Joseph Alcamo, Abdelkader Allali, Oleg Anisimov, Nigel Arnell, Michel Boko, Osvaldo Canziani, Timothy Carter, Gino Casassa, Ulisses Confalonieri, Rex Victor Cruz, Edmundo de Alba Alcaraz, William Easterling, Christopher Field, Andreas Fischlin, Blair Fitzharris, Carlos Gay García, Clair Hanson, Hideo Harasawa, Kevin Hennessy, Saleemul Huq, Roger Jones, Lucka Kajfež Bogataj, David Karoly, Richard Klein, Zbigniew Kundzewicz, Murari Lal, Rodel Lasco, Geoff Love, Xianfu Lu, Graciela Magrín, Luis José Mata, Roger McLean, Bettina Menne, Guy Midgley, Nobuo Mimura, Monirul Qader Mirza, José Moreno, Linda Mortsch, Isabelle Niang-Diop, Robert Nicholls, Béla Nováky, Leonard Nurse, Anthony Nyong, Michael Oppenheimer, Jean Palutikof, Martin Parry, Anand Patwardhan, Patricia Romero Lankao, Cynthia Rosenzweig, Stephen Schneider, Serguei Semenov, Joel Smith, John Stone, Jean-Pascal van Ypersele, David Vaughan, Coleen Vogel, Thomas Wilbanks, Poh Poh Wong, Shaohong Wu, Gary Yohe

Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Ecological changes in the phenology and distribution of plants and animals are occurring in all well-studied marine, freshwater, and terrestrial groups These observed changes are heavily biased in the directions predicted from global warming and have been linked to local or regional climate change through correlations between climate and biological variation, field and laboratory experiments, and physiological research Range-restricted species, particularly polar and mountaintop species, show severe range contractions and have been the first groups in which entire species have gone extinct due to recent climate change Tropical coral reefs and amphibians have been most negatively affected Predator-prey and plant-insect interactions have been disrupted when interacting species have responded differently to warming Evolutionary adaptations to warmer conditions have occurred in the interiors of species’ ranges, and resource use and dispersal have evolved rapidly at expanding range margins Observed genetic shifts modulate local effects of climate change, but there is little evidence that they will mitigate negative effects at the species level

https://www.fws.gov/southwest/es/documents/R2ES/LitCited/LPC_2012/Parmesan_2006.pdf

Ecological and Evolutionary Responses to Recent Climate Change

The authors propose a new climatic drought index: the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI). The SPEI is based on precipitation and temperature data, and it has the advantage of combining multiscalar character with the capacity to include the effects of temperature variability on drought assessment. The procedure to calculate the index is detailed and involves a climatic water balance, the accumulation of deficit/surplus at different time scales, and adjustment to a log-logistic probability distribution. Mathematically, the SPEI is similar to the standardized precipitation index (SPI), but it includes the role of temperature. Because the SPEI is based on a water balance, it can be compared to the self-calibrated Palmer drought severity index (sc-PDSI). Time series of the three indices were compared for a set of observatories with different climate characteristics, located in different parts of the world. Under global warming conditions, only the sc-PDSI and SPEI identified an...

/pdf/a-multiscalar-drought-index-sensitive-to-global-warming-the-370wre0ti5.pdf

A Multiscalar Drought Index Sensitive to Global Warming: The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index

The Severe Winter of 1981-1982

A new national database for freezing-rain occurrences during the 1945‐2000 period provided an opportunity for a study of the potential urban effects on freezing-rain events. Numerous past studies of snowfall events in urban areas have defined decreases of 10%‐35% related to the urban heat island. The heat island, which acts to elevate near-surface temperatures, could also keep some freezing-rain situations from occurring in the city. The study involved four cities in the Midwest and Northeast for which the average annual number of days with freezing rain are three or more, for which data from in-city stations existed, and for which data for several surrounding rural stations existed. The two largest qualifying cities, New York City, New York, and Chicago, Illinois, had sizable reductions in average and maximum annual freezing-rain-day frequencies, ranging from 16% to 43% less than values of surrounding rural stations, and their freezing-rain ‘‘seasons’’ were 1‐2 months shorter than those in surrounding rural areas. The ocean/lake influences at both cities, along with the heat island, also helped to reduce the local incidence of freezing-rain events. Two qualifying smaller urban areas, Washington, District of Columbia, and St. Louis, Missouri, had reductions in freezing-rain-day occurrences but had no shifts in the length of their freezing-rain seasons. Results suggest that freezing-rain occurrences in large cities are decreased between 10% and 30% by the heat island, which acts to keep rain from freezing to urban surfaces.

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0450(2003)042%3C0863%3AUMOFE%3E2.0.CO%3B2

NOTES AND CORRESPONDENCE Urban Modification of Freezing-Rain Events

Are flood losses increasing in the Midwest, and if so, why? The massive losses of the 1993 flood plus ensuing major flood losses in the Mississippi River basin during 1996 and 1997 are indicative of everincreasing flood losses. Midwestern flood data for 1921-1990 reveals systematic, long-term increases in both flood incidences and magnitudes in Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, and Illinois, but not in the eastern Midwest. Certain precipitation conditions in the Mississippi basin also increased systematically since the 1920s, including upward trends in annual precipitation (5-10%), the number of 7-day heavy rain events (8-15%), and the number of days with precipitation (3-5%).

Stanley A. Changnon

Papers

The Severe Winter of 1981-1982

NOTES AND CORRESPONDENCE Urban Modification of Freezing-Rain Events

The 1993 Flood's Aftermath: Lessons for the Future

A Climatological Perspective of the 1987-89 Drought