Causal attribution of recent biological trends to climate change is complicated because non-climatic influences dominate local, short-term biological changes. Any underlying signal from climate change is likely to be revealed by analyses that seek systematic trends across diverse species and geographic regions; however, debates within the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reveal several definitions of a 'systematic trend'. Here, we explore these differences, apply diverse analyses to more than 1,700 species, and show that recent biological trends match climate change predictions. Global meta-analyses documented significant range shifts averaging 6.1 km per decade towards the poles (or metres per decade upward), and significant mean advancement of spring events by 2.3 days per decade. We define a diagnostic fingerprint of temporal and spatial 'sign-switching' responses uniquely predicted by twentieth century climate trends. Among appropriate long-term/large-scale/multi-species data sets, this diagnostic fingerprint was found for 279 species. This suite of analyses generates 'very high confidence' (as laid down by the IPCC) that climate change is already affecting living systems.

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A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems

There is now ample evidence of the ecological impacts of recent climate change, from polar terrestrial to tropical marine environments. The responses of both flora and fauna span an array of ecosystems and organizational hierarchies, from the species to the community levels. Despite continued uncertainty as to community and ecosystem trajectories under global change, our review exposes a coherent pattern of ecological change across systems. Although we are only at an early stage in the projected trends of global warming, ecological responses to recent climate change are already clearly visible.

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Ecological responses to recent climate change.

Drafting Authors: Neil Adger, Pramod Aggarwal, Shardul Agrawala, Joseph Alcamo, Abdelkader Allali, Oleg Anisimov, Nigel Arnell, Michel Boko, Osvaldo Canziani, Timothy Carter, Gino Casassa, Ulisses Confalonieri, Rex Victor Cruz, Edmundo de Alba Alcaraz, William Easterling, Christopher Field, Andreas Fischlin, Blair Fitzharris, Carlos Gay García, Clair Hanson, Hideo Harasawa, Kevin Hennessy, Saleemul Huq, Roger Jones, Lucka Kajfež Bogataj, David Karoly, Richard Klein, Zbigniew Kundzewicz, Murari Lal, Rodel Lasco, Geoff Love, Xianfu Lu, Graciela Magrín, Luis José Mata, Roger McLean, Bettina Menne, Guy Midgley, Nobuo Mimura, Monirul Qader Mirza, José Moreno, Linda Mortsch, Isabelle Niang-Diop, Robert Nicholls, Béla Nováky, Leonard Nurse, Anthony Nyong, Michael Oppenheimer, Jean Palutikof, Martin Parry, Anand Patwardhan, Patricia Romero Lankao, Cynthia Rosenzweig, Stephen Schneider, Serguei Semenov, Joel Smith, John Stone, Jean-Pascal van Ypersele, David Vaughan, Coleen Vogel, Thomas Wilbanks, Poh Poh Wong, Shaohong Wu, Gary Yohe

Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Ecological changes in the phenology and distribution of plants and animals are occurring in all well-studied marine, freshwater, and terrestrial groups These observed changes are heavily biased in the directions predicted from global warming and have been linked to local or regional climate change through correlations between climate and biological variation, field and laboratory experiments, and physiological research Range-restricted species, particularly polar and mountaintop species, show severe range contractions and have been the first groups in which entire species have gone extinct due to recent climate change Tropical coral reefs and amphibians have been most negatively affected Predator-prey and plant-insect interactions have been disrupted when interacting species have responded differently to warming Evolutionary adaptations to warmer conditions have occurred in the interiors of species’ ranges, and resource use and dispersal have evolved rapidly at expanding range margins Observed genetic shifts modulate local effects of climate change, but there is little evidence that they will mitigate negative effects at the species level

https://www.fws.gov/southwest/es/documents/R2ES/LitCited/LPC_2012/Parmesan_2006.pdf

Ecological and Evolutionary Responses to Recent Climate Change

The authors propose a new climatic drought index: the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI). The SPEI is based on precipitation and temperature data, and it has the advantage of combining multiscalar character with the capacity to include the effects of temperature variability on drought assessment. The procedure to calculate the index is detailed and involves a climatic water balance, the accumulation of deficit/surplus at different time scales, and adjustment to a log-logistic probability distribution. Mathematically, the SPEI is similar to the standardized precipitation index (SPI), but it includes the role of temperature. Because the SPEI is based on a water balance, it can be compared to the self-calibrated Palmer drought severity index (sc-PDSI). Time series of the three indices were compared for a set of observatories with different climate characteristics, located in different parts of the world. Under global warming conditions, only the sc-PDSI and SPEI identified an...

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A Multiscalar Drought Index Sensitive to Global Warming: The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index

The most damaging hailstorm ever recorded moved from eastern Kansas to southern Illinois during an 8-h period on 10 April 2001, depositing 2.5- to 7.5-cm-diameter hailstones along a 585-km path. A classic long-lived supercell storm was the cause of the record hailfalls. The record-large hailswath size, large and often windblown hailstones, and movement over portions of the St. Louis and Kansas City urban areas led to $1.5 billion in insured losses. This tristate hailstorm and other adjacent hailstorms collectively created $1.9 billion in insured losses in a 2-day period, becoming the ninth most costly weather catastrophe in the United States since property insurance records began in 1949.

The Tristate Hailstorm: The Most Costly on Record

Climate and weather extremes--floods, drought, storms, severe weather--now have an impact on all levels of government and on the insurance industry. U.S. national policy has moved from structural approaches (building dams, levees, and irrigation ditches) to societal approaches: moving people out of hazardous areas, seeking improvements in building codes, and encouraging the use of crop and flood insurance. Federal relief assistance policies have been called into question, and renewed emphasis on personal responsibility is part of future policy.

U.S. Policies Pertaining to Weather and Climate Extremes

Data from networks of lightning sensors operated during 198689 were employed to perform climatic assessments of cloud-to-ground (CG) flashes, and of the relationship between CG flashes and thunder events, as reported at 62 first-order stations. The average annual CG flash pattern resembles the nation's thunderstorm pattern, with lightning being most frequent at points in the southeast United States (>18 000 flashes in Florida) and least frequent at West Cost stations (< 100 flashes). Flashes in the intermontane area are relatively less than thunderstorms, and greater than 50% of all thunder events there are due to intracloud lightning. An anomalous high in CG frequencies exists from Virginia to New York. Cluster analysis identified ten regions of similar storm activity with several reflecting localized influence (Great Lakes, Florida, the Piedmont, and Arizona). Thunder events provide poor estimates of CG lightning incidence and durations. Cloud-to-ground flash data reveal that 20% (far West) an...

Relationships between thunderstorms and cloud-to-ground lightning in the United States

This study explores the relationships between U.S. corn yields (level and stability), advances in technology, and weather. Evaluations at the farm, sub-state, and national levels reveal no evidence of yield plateaus, and absolute, but not relative, yield variability increased over time. When yield behavior is adjusted for weather, variances are more likely to be equal between early and late periods. Results suggest that technology has not been the only determinant of changing yield risk, and emphasize the importance of weather conditions in assessing them effects.

Corn Yield Behavior: Effects of Technological Advance and Weather-Conditions

Freezing rain produces major damages each year in the United States, and various affected groups continue to seek data on the incidence and losses produced by freezing rain. The various kinds of data available about freezing rain and related damages have been identified and assessed as part of a project to develop long-term databases. Data include long-term records of the occurrences of freezing rain, 50-yr records of insured property losses, and measures and estimates of ice loading on wires and structures. Many years of interactions with affected and interested groups and individuals, such as the insurance industry and design engineers, led to the preparation of this summary that describes the various sources of data on freezing-rain and ice-storm damages. The benefits and limitations of each form of data are presented to help to guide potential data users.

Stanley A. Changnon

Papers

The Tristate Hailstorm: The Most Costly on Record

U.S. Policies Pertaining to Weather and Climate Extremes

Relationships between thunderstorms and cloud-to-ground lightning in the United States

Corn Yield Behavior: Effects of Technological Advance and Weather-Conditions

Sources of Data on Freezing Rain and Resulting Damages