Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere

About: Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere is a based out in . It is known for research contribution in the topics: Snow & Data assimilation. The organization has 332 authors who have published 997 publications receiving 38835 citations. The organization is also known as: CIRA.

Dual constant-flux energy cascades to both large scales and small scales

Abstract: In this paper, we present an overview of concepts and data concerning inverse cascades of excitation towards scales larger than the forcing scale in a variety of contexts, from two-dimensional fluids and wave turbulence to geophysical flows in the presence of rotation and stratification. We briefly discuss the role of anisotropy in the occurrence and properties of such cascades. We then show that the cascade of some invariant, for example, the total energy, may be transferred through nonlinear interactions to both the small scales and the large scales, with in each case a constant flux. This is in contrast to the classical picture, and we illustrate such a dual cascade in the context of atmospheric and oceanic observations, direct numerical simulations, and modeling. We also show that this dual cascade of total energy can in fact be decomposed in some cases into separate cascades of the kinetic and potential energies, provided the Froude and Rossby numbers are small enough. In all cases, the potential ene...

Evaluation of OVATION Prime as a forecast model for visible aurorae

Abstract: This study evaluates the ability of the OVATION Prime auroral precipitation model to provide operational forecasts of the visible aurora. An operational implementation would primarily provide the general public with some guidance for viewing the aurora. We evaluate the likelihood that if aurorae are predicted to be visible at a location, they will be seen there within the hour. Nighttime model forecasts were validated with Polar Ultraviolet Imager data for Kp ≥ 3 and for the years 1997 and 1998. The overall forecasts for a visible aurora to occur or to not occur were correct 77% of the time. The most important prediction for public auroral viewing is that the visible aurora will occur, and these forecasts were correct 86% of the time.

Multidisciplinary Analysis of an Unusual Tornado: Meteorology, Climatology, and the Communication and Interpretation of Warnings*

Abstract: On 22 May 2008, a strong tornado—rated EF3 on the enhanced Fujita scale, with winds estimated between 136 and 165 mi h−1 (61 and 74 m s−1)—caused extensive damage along a 55-km track through northern Colorado. The worst devastation occurred in and around the town of Windsor, and in total there was one fatality, numerous injuries, and hundreds of homes significantly damaged or destroyed. Several characteristics of this tornado were unusual for the region from a climatological perspective, including its intensity, its long track, its direction of motion, and the time of day when it formed. These unusual aspects and the high impact of this tornado also raised a number of questions about the communication and interpretation of information from National Weather Service watches and warnings by decision makers and the public. First, the study examines the meteorological circumstances responsible for producing such an outlier to the regional severe weather climatology. An analysis of the synoptic and mes...

Local anomalies in the column-averaged dry air mole fractions of carbon dioxide across the globe during the first months of the coronavirus recession.

Abstract: We use a global transport model and satellite retrievals of the carbon dioxide (CO2) column average to explore the impact of CO2 emissions reductions that occurred during the economic downturn at the start of the Covid-19 pandemic. The changes in the column averages are substantial in a few places of the model global grid, but the induced gradients are most often less than the random errors of the retrievals. The current necessity to restrict the quality-assured column retrievals to almost cloud-free areas appears to be a major obstacle in identifying changes in CO2 emissions. Indeed, large changes have occurred in the presence of clouds and, in places that were cloud-free in 2020, the comparison with previous years is hampered by different cloud conditions during these years. We therefore recommend to favor all-weather CO2 monitoring systems, at least in situ, to support international efforts to reduce emissions.