Showing papers by "Economic and Social Research Institute published in 2010"
TL;DR: This article investigated the relationship between a thousand-year history of violent conflict in Europe and various reconstructions of temperature and precipitation, and found that conflict was more intense during colder period, just like Zhang et al. found for China.
Abstract: We investigate the relationship between a thousand-year history of violent conflict in Europe and various reconstructions of temperature and precipitation. We find that conflict was more intense during colder period, just like Zhang et al. (Clim Change 76:459-477, 2006) found for China. This relationship weakens in the industrialized era, and is not robust to the details of the climate reconstruction or to the sample period. As the correlation is negative and weakening, it appears that global warming would not lead to an increase in violent conflict in temperature climates.
206 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors explored the potential of using subjective well-being (SWB) data to value environmental attributes and compared the life satisfaction approach with the standard hedonic pricing approach, identifying their similarities and differences.
Abstract: This paper explores the potential of using subjective well-being (SWB) data to value environmental attributes. A theoretical framework compares this method, also known as the life-satisfaction approach, with the standard hedonic pricing approach, identifying their similarities and differences. As a corollary, we show how SWB data can be used to test for the equilibrium condition implicit in the hedonic approach (i.e., equality of utility across locations). Results for Ireland show that the equilibrium condition required by the hedonic pricing approach in Irish markets does not hold. They also show that air quality, in the baseline specification, and warmer climate, across all the specifications, have a significant positive impact on SWB. Their associated monetary estimates, however, seem too large.
196 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the role of green and blue water resources in agriculture and within the context of international trade is investigated based on the global general equilibrium model GTAP-W, and the results indicate that there is a clear trade-off between economic welfare and environmental sustainability.
184 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors examined the determinants of household car ownership, using Irish longitudinal data for the period 1995-2001, and found that income and previous car ownership were the strongest determinants.
Abstract: This paper examines the determinants of household car ownership, using Irish longitudinal data for the period 1995–2001. This was a period of rapid economic and social change in Ireland, with the proportion of households with one or more cars growing from 74.6% to 80.8%. Understanding the determinants of household car ownership, a key determinant of household travel behaviour more generally, is particularly important in the context of current policy developments which seek to encourage more sustainable means of travel. In this paper, we use longitudinal data to estimate dynamic models of household car ownership, controlling for unobserved heterogeneity and state dependence. We find income and previous car ownership to be the strongest determinants of differences in household car ownership, with the effect of permanent income having a stronger and more significant effect on the probability of household car ownership than current income. In addition, income elasticities differ by previous car ownership status, with income elasticities higher for those households with no car in the initial period. Other important influences include household composition (in particular, the presence of young children) and lifecycle effects, which create challenges for policymakers in seeking to change travel behaviour.
174 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors examined household energy use and appliance ownership in Ireland and found that the methods of space and water heating employed by a household are even more important than electrical appliances in explaining domestic energy usage.
152 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors apply the DIVA model to assess the risk of and adaptation to sea-level rise for the European Union in the 21st century under the A2 and B1 scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
Abstract: This paper applies the DIVA model to assess the risk of and adaptation to sea-level rise for the European Union in the 21st century under the A2 and B1 scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. For each scenario, impacts are estimated without and with adaptation in the form of increasing dike heights and nourishing beaches. Before 2050, the level of impacts is primarily determined by socio-economic development. In 2100 and assuming no adaptation, 780 × 103 people/year are estimated to be affected by coastal flooding under A2 and 200 × 103 people/year under B1. The total monetary damage caused by flooding, salinity intrusion, land erosion and migration is projected to be about US$ 17 × 109 under both scenarios in 2100; damage costs relative to GDP are highest for the Netherlands (0.3% of GDP under A2). Adaptation reduces the number of people flooded by factors of 110 to 288 and total damage costs by factors of 7 to 9. In 2100 adaptation costs are projected to be US$ 3.5 × 109 under A2 and 2.6 × 109 under B1; adaptation costs relative to GDP are highest for Estonia (0.16% under A2) and Ireland (0.05% under A2). These results suggest that adaptation measures to sea-level rise are beneficial and affordable, and will be widely applied throughout the European Union.
139 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors consider the macroeconomic impacts of these migration flows across Europe, highlighting impacts in receiving and sending countries, and highlight the impact of migration on the economy.
Abstract: Enlargement of the European Union in May 2004 was followed by an increase in migration from the poorest of the central and eastern European New Member States (NMS) to other Member States. We consider the macroeconomic impacts of these migration flows across Europe, highlighting impacts in receiving and sending countries.
133 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, economic returns to different fields of study in Ireland in 2004 and also the value placed on various job-related competencies, accumulated on completion of higher education, in the Irish labour market were examined.
129 citations
TL;DR: In this article, an impact assessment is conducted over the 21st century for rises in sea level of up to 2m/century and a range of socioeconomic scenarios downscaled to the national level, including the four SRES (IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) storylines.
Abstract: Using the FUND model, an impact assessment is conducted over the 21st century for rises in sea level of up to 2-m/century and a range of socio-economic scenarios downscaled to the national level, including the four SRES (IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) storylines. Unlike a traditional impact assessment, this analysis considers impacts after balancing the costs of retreat with the costs of protection, including the effects of coastal squeeze. While the costs of sea-level rise increase with greater rise due to growing damage and protection costs, the model suggests that an optimum response in a benefit-cost sense remains widespread protection of developed coastal areas, as identified in earlier analyses. The socio-economic scenarios are also important in terms of influencing these costs. In terms of the four components of costs considered in FUND, protection dominates, with substantial costs from wetland loss under some scenarios. The regional distribution of costs shows that a few regions experience most of the costs, especially East Asia, North America, Europe and South Asia. Importantly, this analysis suggests that protection is much more likely and rational than is widely assumed, even with a large rise in sea level. This is underpinned by the strong economic growth in all the SRES scenarios: without this growth, the benefits of protection are significantly reduced. It should also be noted that some important limitations to the analysis are discussed, which collectively suggest that protection may not be as widespread as suggested in the FUND results.
121 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors argue that a straightforward review of integrated assessment models results produces biased estimates for the more ambitious climate objectives such as those compatible with the 2 ◦ C of the European Union and the G8.
Abstract: This paper warns against the risk of underestimating the costs—and the uncertainty about the costs—of achieving stringent stabilization targets We argue that a straightforward review of integrated assessment models results produces biased estimates for the more ambitious climate objectives such as those compatible with the 2 ◦ C of the European Union and the G8 The magnitude and range of estimates are significantly reduced because only the most optimistic results are reported for such targets We suggest a procedure that addresses this partiality The results show highly variable costs for the most ambitious scenarios
116 citations
TL;DR: This paper examined the parallel trends in education and labour market developments in Australia and Britain using unique information on reported overskilling in the workplace and found that the prevalence of over-skilling decreases with education at least for Australia, but the wage penalty associated with over-training increases with education.
Abstract: In this paper we examine the parallel trends in education and labour market developments in Australia and Britain using unique information on reported overskilling in the workplace. To a degree, the overskilling information overcomes the problem of unobserved ability differences and focuses on the actual job–employee mismatch more than the conventional overeducation variables can. The paper finds that the prevalence of overskilling decreases with education at least for Australia, but the wage penalty associated with overskilling increases with education. Although the prevalence of overskilling differs between Australia and Britain, the pattern of the wage penalties is fairly similar in both countries.
TL;DR: A survey of the literature on the economic impact of climate change can be found in this paper, where the authors suggest that greenhouse gas emissions should be taxed, and that emission reduction targets announced by politicians are probably too ambitious.
Abstract: : This paper surveys the literature on the economic impact of climate change. Different methods have been used to estimate the impact of climate change on human welfare. Studies agree that there are positive and negative impacts. In the short term, positive impacts may dominate, but these are largely sunk. In the longer term, there are net negative impacts. Poorer people tend to be more vulnerable to climate change. There is a trade-off between development policy and climate policy. Estimated aggregate impacts are not very large, but they are uncertain and incomplete. Estimates of the marginal impacts suggest that greenhouse gas emissions should be taxed, and that the emission reduction targets announced by politicians are probably too ambitious.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors show that previous approaches to equity weighting are inappropriate from a national decision maker's point of view, because domestic impacts are not valued at domestic values, and propose four alternatives (sovereignty, altruism, good neighbour, and compensation) with different views on concern for and liability towards foreigners.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors derive an optimal tax formula that generalizes previous results by allowing for income effects and extensive margin responses, and provide a sufficient condition for optimal marginal tax rates to be nonnegative everywhere.
Abstract: This paper characterizes optimal income taxation when individuals respond along both the intensive and extensive margins. Individuals are heterogeneous across two dimensions: specifically, their skill and disutility of participation. Preferences over consumption and work effort can differ with respect to the level of skill, with only the Spence-Mirrlees condition imposed. Employing a tax perturbation approach, we derive an optimal tax formula that generalizes previous results by allowing for income effects and extensive margin responses. We provide a sufficient condition for optimal marginal tax rates to be nonnegative everywhere. We discuss the relevance of this condition with analytical examples and numerical simulations using U.S. data.
TL;DR: In this article, a methodology based on counterfactual tax-benefit simulations is proposed to assess the impact of taxbenefit policy changes on income distribution over time, which is not significantly different from the policy effect stemming from the Shorrocks-Shapley decomposition.
Abstract: To assess the impact of tax-benefit policy changes on income distribution over time, we suggest a methodology based on counterfactual tax-benefit simulations. Changes in inequality/poverty indices are decomposed into three contributions: changes in the tax-benefit structure, changes in nominal levels of market incomes and tax-benefit money parameters, and all other changes, including shifts in market income inequality and demographic composition. The policy effect can be evaluated conditionally on base-period data or end-period data; it is also possible to average the two measures, which corresponds to an application of the Shapley value method as reinterpreted by Shorrocks (Decomposition Procedures for Distributional Analysis: A Unified Framework Based on the Shapley Value, University of Essex and Institute for Fiscal Studies, Wivenhoe Park, 1999). The decomposition is used to quantify the relative role of policy changes on inequality/poverty trends in France and Ireland in the 1990s. When end-period data are not available, e.g., for forward looking analysis of possible reforms, the base weighted decomposition helps to extract an absolute measure of the impact of tax-benefit changes on income distribution as evaluated against a distributionally neutral benchmark; in our application, it is not significantly different from the policy effect stemming from the Shorrocks-Shapley decomposition. Estimates of this type are derived to assess recent policy changes in twelve European countries.
TL;DR: In this article, the relative merits of one-dimensional versus multidimensional approaches to poverty and social exclusion and the continuing relevance of class-based explanations of life chances are discussed.
Abstract: In this paper we address a set of interrelated issues. These comprise increasing concerns about reliance on nationally based income poverty measures in the context of EU enlargement, the relative merits of one-dimensional versus multidimensional approaches to poverty and social exclusion and the continuing relevance of class-based explanations of life chances. When identifying economically vulnerable groups we find that, contrary to the situation with national income poverty measures, levels of vulnerability vary systematically across welfare regimes. The multidimensional profile of the economically vulnerable sharply differentiates them from the remainder of the population. While they are also characterised by distinctively higher levels of multiple deprivation, a substantial majority of the economically vulnerable are not exposed to such deprivation. Unlike the national relative income approach, the focus on economic vulnerability reveals a pattern of class differentiation that is not dominated by the c...
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TL;DR: In this paper, the optimal income redistribution and optimal monitoring when disability benefits are intended for disabled people but when some able agents with high distaste for work mimic them (type II errors) were studied.
Abstract: This paper studies the optimal income redistribution and optimal monitoring when disability benefits are intended for disabled people but when some able agents with high distaste for work mimic them (type II errors). Labor supply responses are at the extensive margin and endogenous take-up costs may burden disabled recipients (because of either a reputational externality caused by cheaters or a snowball effect). Under paternalistic utilitarian preferences that do not compensate for distaste for work, inactive disabled recipients should obtain strictly lower consumption than disabled workers. The cost of monitoring supports adoption of an Earned Income Tax Credit. However, and surprisingly, with or without take-up costs, even if perfect monitoring is costless, it proves optimal to have type II errors. These results are robust to a utilitarian criterion. The paper provides numerical simulations calibrated on U.S. data.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors use a model of international and domestic tourist numbers and flows to project tourist number and emissions from international tourism out to 2100, and find that between 2005 and 2100 international tourism grows substantially.
Abstract: We use a model of international and domestic tourist numbers and flows to project tourist numbers and emissions from international tourism out to 2100. We find that between 2005 and 2100 international tourism grows substantially. Not only do people take more trips but these also increase in length. We find that the growth in tourism is mainly fuelled by an increase in trips from Asian countries. Emissions follow this growth pattern until the middle of the century when emissions start to fall due to improvements in fuel efficiency. Projected emissions are also presented for the four SRES scenarios and maintain the same growth pattern but the levels of emissions differ substantially. We find that the projections are sensitive to the period to which the model is calibrated, the assumed rate of improvement in fuel efficiency and the imposed climate policy scenario.
TL;DR: The authors compare the performance of domestic and foreign plants acquired by new domestic owners and foreign owners, and show that domestic plants acquire large, high-wage, highproductivity plants, while foreign owners choose average performers of above-average size.
Abstract: We compare the performance in employment, wages and productivity for domestic plants acquired by new domestic and foreign owners. Prospective foreign owners pick large, high-wage, high-productivity plants, while new domestic owners choose average performers of above-average size. Employment, labour productivity, and total factor productivity decline in domestic acquisition targets before acquisitions; only wages recover afterwards. Employment, wages and labour productivity increase after foreign acquisitions. The sample selection introduced by long-term comparisons and a focus on unique events introduces a downward bias into the results for domestic acquisitions and an upward bias for the foreign acquisitions.
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors investigate the effect of various climate policy instruments implemented in Europe on arrivals and emissions for the countries concerned and find that these schemes do not fulfil their desired effects.
Abstract: We use a model of international and domestic tourist numbers and flows to investigate the effect of various climate policy instruments implemented in Europe on arrivals and emissions for the countries concerned. We find that these schemes do not fulfil their desired effects. The introduction of aviation into the European trading system results in a fall in the number of tourists travelling into the European Union in favour of other destinations. It also causes a significant welfare loss with only a small reduction in emissions. The flight taxes in the Netherlands and the UK result in different substitution effects across destinations (depending on the zones being taxed) but both policies do have the same consequence of inducing global welfare losses and also reducing visitor numbers to the countries. We find that when these policies are combined their effects are additive. Welfare impacts are robust to variations in the underlying assumptions and changes in the scope of the taxes examined have the expected effects.
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TL;DR: In this article, the authors assess how the economic downturn in Ireland has impacted upon the employment outcomes of non-nationals relative to natives, finding huge job losses among immigrants, with an annual rate of job loss of close to 20 percent in 2009, compared to 7 percent for natives.
Abstract: In the mid 2000s Ireland experienced a large inflow of immigrants, partly in response to strong economic growth but also in response to its decision to allow full access to its labour market when EU expansion occurred in May 2004. Between 2004 and 2007, the proportion of non-nationals living in Ireland almost doubled, increasing from 7.7 to 13.1 percent. Between 2008 and 2009, Ireland experienced one of the most acute downturns in economic activity in the industrialised world, with a cumulative fall in Gross National Product of close to 14 percent. In this paper, we assess how this downturn has impacted upon the employment outcomes of non-nationals relative to natives. We find huge job losses among immigrants, with an annual rate of job loss of close to 20 percent in 2009, compared to 7 percent for natives. A higher rate of job loss for immigrants is found to remain when we control for factors such as age and education. We also show how an outflow of non-nationals is occurring. The findings have many implications. In particular, the results point to economic vulnerability for immigrants. However, they also point to a potential macroeconomic benefit to Ireland in terms of a flexible labour supply adjustment.
TL;DR: Recall data from a representative sample of 3080 adults in Ireland in 2003 is used to investigate transitions into and out of regular participation in sports and exercise--an important contributor to overall physical activity.
TL;DR: In this paper, a large-scale study of primary and second level school provision for immigrant students in Ireland was carried out and the findings indicate the absence of the degree of school segregation found in many European countries, mainly due to the geographical dispersal of the immigrant population and the wide variety of national groups represented.
Abstract: In the last decade, Ireland has experienced a rapid increase in immigration on a scale previously unknown in the country's history. Over this time, Ireland has been transformed to an increasingly heterogeneous country in terms of nationality, language, ethnicity and religious affiliation. These changes have also impacted on the composition of Irish schools. The article draws on data collected for a large-scale study of primary and second level school provision for immigrant students. The findings indicate the absence of the degree of school segregation found in many European countries, mainly due to the geographical dispersal of the immigrant population and the wide variety of national groups represented. However, the interaction between geographical location, parental choice of schools and school admissions criteria means that immigrant students are overrepresented in larger schools, schools located in urban areas and those with a socio-economically disadvantaged intake.
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TL;DR: In this article, the authors used annual panel information on both educational and skills mismatches uniquely found in the HILDA survey to analyse the relationship of both mismatches with pay, job satisfaction and job mobility.
Abstract: The interpretation of graduate mismatch manifested either as overeducation or as overskilling remains problematical. This paper uses annual panel information on both educational and skills mismatches uniquely found in the HILDA survey to analyse the relationship of both mismatches with pay, job satisfaction and job mobility. We find that overeducation and overskilling are distinct phenomena with different labour market outcomes and that their combination results in the most severe negative labour market outcomes. Using panel methodology reduces strongly the size of many relevant coefficients, questioning previous cross-section results and suggesting the presence of considerable unobserved heterogeneity which varies by gender.
TL;DR: In this paper, the extent to which people who have emigrated from Ireland and returned earn more relative to comparable people who had never lived abroad was estimated using a large-scale survey of employees in Ireland.
Abstract: Using data from a large-scale survey of employees in Ireland, we estimate the extent to which people who have emigrated from Ireland and returned earn more relative to comparable people who have never lived abroad. In so doing, we test the hypothesis that migration can be part of a process of human capital formation. We find through OLS estimation that returners earn 7 per cent more than comparable stayers. We test for the presence of self-selection bias in this estimate but the tests suggest that the premium is related to returner status. The premium holds for both genders, is higher for people with postgraduate degrees and for people who migrated beyond the EU to the US, Canada, Australia and New Zealand. The results show how emigration can be positive for a source country when viewed in a longer-term context.
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors conducted an assessment of economic impacts of increased storm activities under climate change with the integrated assessment model FUND 3.5 and showed that the direct economic damage of enhanced storms due to climate change amounts to US$2.8 billion globally (approximately 38% of the total economic loss of storms at present) at the year 2100, while its ratio to the world GDP is 0.0009%.
Abstract: Extratropical cyclones have attracted some attention in climate policy circles as a possible significant damage factor of climate change. This study conducts an assessment of economic impacts of increased storm activities under climate change with the integrated assessment model FUND 3.5. In the base case, the direct economic damage of enhanced storms due to climate change amounts to US$2.8 billion globally (approximately 38% of the total economic loss of storms at present) at the year 2100, while its ratio to the world GDP is 0.0009%. The paper also shows various sensitivity runs exhibiting up to 3 times the level of damage relative to the base run.
TL;DR: The authors showed that the advent of EMU relaxed existing financial constraints in Ireland and Spain, allowing a more rapid expansion of the housing stock in those countries to meet their specific demographic circumstances.
Abstract: With the advent of EMU, monetary policy can no longer be used to prevent housing market bubbles in regional economies such as Ireland or Spain. However, fiscal policy can and should be used to achieve the same effect. This paper shows that the advent of EMU relaxed existing financial constraints in Ireland and Spain, allowing a more rapid expansion of the housing stock in those countries to meet their specific demographic circumstances. However, the failure to prevent these booms turning into bubbles did lasting damage to the two economies, damage that could have been avoided by more appropriate fiscal policy action.
TL;DR: The way in which the structure of the Irish system is complicated when compared with other countries is examined and compared with the health baskets of the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, Sweden and France.
Abstract: The Irish health care system is typically described as complex and inequitable and yet the source of the complexity is difficult to identify This paper examines and documents the way in which the structure of the Irish system is complicated when compared with other countries Analysis is conducted in the context of the ‘health basket’ framework A health basket describes which health care services, and which individuals, are covered by public funding, and to what extent The Irish health basket is outlined along three dimensions of breadth, depth, and height, and compared with the health baskets of the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, Sweden and France Results indicate that it is in the combination of breadth and height that distinguishes the Irish basket from others The majority of Irish health care services are run on a cost sharing basis; user fees are higher than in other countries particularly in primary care; and the structure of entitlement restrictions are complex It is difficult to identify other countries in which all these factors operate within one system In addition, the way in which the Irish health basket is delivered in practice introduces further complexities into the breadth and height of coverage
TL;DR: In this article, the authors explore the extent to which a consideration of welfare regime and socioeconomic differences in poverty levels and patterns can assist us in making an informed assessment of alternative poverty indicators.
Abstract: In this article, we explore the extent to which a consideration of welfare regime and socioeconomic differences in poverty levels and patterns can assist us in making an informed assessment of alternative poverty indicators. Poverty in the EU is normally defined in terms of income thresholds at the level of each member state. However, with the enlargement of the EU, such measures have come in for increasing criticism. One set of reservation relates to the limitations imposed by an entirely national frame of reference. An alternative critique focuses on the fact that low income is an unreliable indicator of poverty. In this article, we seek to explore the strength of both arguments by comparing the outcomes associated with 'at risk of poverty' and consistent poverty at both national and EU levels. Developing an appropriate assessment of poverty levels in the enlarged EU, particularly in periods of rapid change, is likely to require that we make use of a number of indicators none of which capture the full complexity of cross-national poverty outcomes. However, our analysis suggests that if a choice is to be made between the available indicators, the 'mixed consistent poverty' indicator developed in this study is best suited to achieving the stated EU objective of assessing the scale of exclusion from minimally acceptable standards of living in individual countries while also measuring the extent to which the whole population of Europe is sharing in the benefits of high average prosperity.
TL;DR: This paper employs widely used analytic techniques for measuring equity in health care financing to update Irish results from previous analysis based on data from the late 1980s, indicating a marginally progressive financing system overall.
Abstract: This paper employs widely used analytic techniques for measuring equity in health care financing to update Irish results from previous analysis based on data from the late 1980s. Kakwani indices are calculated using household survey data from 1987/88 to 2004/05. Results indicate a marginally progressive financing system overall. However, interpretation of the results for the private sources of health financing is complicated. This problem is not unique to Ireland but it is argued that it may be relatively more important in the context of a complex health financing system, illustrated in this paper by the Irish system. Alternative options for improving the analysis of equity in health care financing are discussed.