Showing papers in "Global Environmental Change-human and Policy Dimensions in 2010"
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors argue that instead of focusing only on global efforts (which are indeed a necessary part of the longterm solution), it is better to encourage polycentric efforts to reduce the risks associated with the emission of greenhouse gases.
Abstract: The 20th anniversary issue of Global Environmental Change provides an important opportunity to address the core questions involved in addressing ‘‘global environmental’’ problems—especially those related to climate change. Climate change is a global collective-action problem since all of us face the likelihood of extremely adverse outcomes that could be reduced if many participants take expensive actions. Conventional collective-action theory predicts that these problems will not be solved unless an external authority determines appropriate actions to be taken, monitors behavior, and imposes sanctions. Debating about global efforts to solve climate-change problems, however, has yet not led to an effective global treaty. Fortunately, many activities can be undertaken by multiple units at diverse scales that cumulatively make a difference. I argue that instead of focusing only on global efforts (which are indeed a necessary part of the long-term solution), it is better to encourage polycentric efforts to reduce the risks associated with the emission of greenhouse gases. Polycentric approaches facilitate achieving benefits at multiple scales as well as experimentation and learning from experience with diverse policies.
1,644 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors investigate how transferable existing research findings on framing from health and behavioural research are to the climate change case and find that, ceteris paribus, gain frames were superior to loss frames in increasing positive attitudes towards climate change mitigation, and also increased the perceived severity of climate change impacts.
Abstract: Communications regarding climate change are increasingly being utilised in order to encourage sustainable behaviour and the way that these are framed can significantly alter the impact that they have on the recipient. This experimental study seeks to investigate how transferable existing research findings on framing from health and behavioural research are to the climate change case. The study (N = 161) examined how framing the same information about climate change in terms of gain or loss outcomes or in terms of local or distant impacts can affect perceptions. Text on potential climate change impacts was adapted from the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report, alongside maps and images of potential flooding impacts. Participants then completed measures of various relevant socio-cognitive factors and questions assessing their responses to the information that they had received. Results indicated that, ceteris paribus, gain frames were superior to loss frames in increasing positive attitudes towards climate change mitigation, and also increased the perceived severity of climate change impacts. However, third variable analyses demonstrated that the superiority of the gain frame was partially suppressed by lower fear responses and poorer information recall within gain framed information. In addition, framing climate change impacts as distant (whilst keeping information presented the same) resulted in climate change impacts being perceived as more severe, while attitudes towards climate change mitigation were more positive when participants were asked to consider social rather than personal aspects of climate change. Implications for designing communications about climate change are outlined.
610 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors explored the sustainability of current P flows in terms of resource depletion and the ultimate fate of these flows and showed that rapid depletion of extractable phosphate rock is not very likely, in the near term.
Abstract: The phosphorus (P) cycle has been significantly altered by human activities. For this paper, we explored the sustainability of current P flows in terms of resource depletion and the ultimate fate of these flows. The analysis shows that rapid depletion of extractable phosphate rock is not very likely, in the near term. Under best estimates, depletion would be around 20–35%. In worst case scenarios, about 40–60% of the current resource base would be extracted by 2100. At the same time, production will concentrate in Asia, Africa and West Asia, and production costs will likely have increased. As there are no substitutes for phosphorus plant nutrients in agriculture, arguably even partial depletion of P resources may in the long run be relevant for the sustainability of agriculture. Consumption trends lead to large flows of phosphorus to surface water and a considerable build-up of phosphorus in agricultural soils in arable lands. This may allow a reduction in future P fertiliser application rates in crop production. Results also indicate a global depletion of P pools in soils under grassland, which may be a threat to ruminant production.
594 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors reviewed seven National Adaptation Strategies (NASs) that were either formally adopted or under development by Member States at the end of 2008 and concluded that even though the strategies show great resemblance in terms of topics, methods and approaches, there are many institutional challenges, including multi-level governance and policy integration issues, which can act as considerable barriers in future policy implementation.
Abstract: For the last two decades, European climate policy has focused almost exclusively on mitigation of climate change. It was only well after the turn of the century, with impacts of climate change increasingly being observed, that adaptation was added to the policy agenda and EU Member States started to develop National Adaptation Strategies (NASs). This paper reviews seven National Adaptation Strategies that were either formally adopted or under development by Member States at the end of 2008. The strategies are analysed under the following six themes. Firstly, the factors motivating and facilitating the development of a national adaptation strategy. Secondly, the scientific and technical support needed for the development and implementation of such a strategy. Thirdly, the role of the strategy in information, communication and awareness-raising of the adaptation issue. Fourthly, new or existing forms of multi-level governance to implement the proposed actions. Fifthly, how the strategy addresses integration and coordination with other policy domains. Finally, how the strategy suggests the implementation and how the strategy is evaluated. The paper notes that the role of National Adaptation Strategies in the wider governance of adaptation differs between countries but clearly benchmarks a new political commitment to adaptation at national policy levels. However, we also find that in most cases approaches for implementing and evaluating the strategies are yet to be defined. The paper concludes that even though the strategies show great resemblance in terms of topics, methods and approaches, there are many institutional challenges, including multi-level governance and policy integration issues, which can act as considerable barriers in future policy implementation.
563 citations
TL;DR: In this article, a revised water footprint calculation method, incorporating water stress characterisation factors, is presented and demonstrated for two case study products, Dolmio ® pasta sauce and Peanut M&M's ® using primary production data.
Abstract: Through the interconnectedness of global business, the local consumption of products and services is intervening in the hydrological cycle throughout the world to an unprecedented extent. In order to address the unsustainable use of global freshwater resources, indicators are needed which make the impacts of production systems and consumption patterns transparent. In this paper, a revised water footprint calculation method, incorporating water stress characterisation factors, is presented and demonstrated for two case study products, Dolmio ® pasta sauce and Peanut M&M's ® using primary production data. The method offers a simple, yet meaningful way of making quantitative comparisons between products, production systems and services in terms of their potential to contribute to water scarcity. As such, capacity is created for change through public policy as well as corporate and individual action. This revised method represents an alternative to existing volumetric water footprint calculation methods which combine green and blue water consumption from water scarce and water abundant regions such that they give no clear indication about where the actual potential for harm exists.
563 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors focus on social or collect-collective knowledge and associated practice to sustain and enhance ecosystem services on the ground, where many ecosystem services are in decline.
Abstract: Many ecosystem services are in decline. Local ecological knowledge and associated practice are essential to sustain and enhance ecosystem services on the ground. Here, we focus on social or collect ...
475 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors briefly review the emergence of sustainability science and the three foundational pivots relevant to vulnerability and resilience, and highlight the distinctions and similarities between the two research themes as practiced within sustainability science, especially in regard to the attention given to the three pivots.
Abstract: Vulnerability and resilience constitute different but overlapping research themes embraced by sustainability science. As practiced within this science, the two research themes appear to coalesce around one of the foundational pivots of sustainability, the coupled human–environment system. They differ in regard to their attention to two other pivots, environmental services and the tradeoffs of these services with human outcomes. In this essay I briefly review the emergence of sustainability science and the three foundational pivots relevant to vulnerability and resilience. I outline the distinctions and similarities between the two research themes foremost as practiced within sustainability science and especially in regard to the attention given to the three pivots. I conclude with the observation that improvement in the capacity of vulnerability and resilience research to inform sustainability science may hinge on their linkages in addressing tradeoffs.
474 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors consider three scenarios of agricultural impacts of climate change by 2030 (impacts resulting in low, medium, or high productivity) and evaluate the resulting changes in global commodity prices, national economic welfare, and the incidence of poverty in a set of 15 developing countries.
Abstract: Accumulating evidence suggests that agricultural production could be greatly affected by climate change, but there remains little quantitative understanding of how these agricultural impacts would affect economic livelihoods in poor countries. Here we consider three scenarios of agricultural impacts of climate change by 2030 (impacts resulting in low, medium, or high productivity) and evaluate the resulting changes in global commodity prices, national economic welfare, and the incidence of poverty in a set of 15 developing countries. Although the small price changes under the medium scenario are consistent with previous findings, we find the potential for much larger food price changes than reported in recent studies which have largely focused on the most likely outcomes. In our low-productivity scenario, prices for major staples rise 10–60% by 2030. The poverty impacts of these price changes depend as much on where impoverished households earn their income as on the agricultural impacts themselves, with poverty rates in some non-agricultural household groups rising by 20–50% in parts of Africa and Asia under these price changes, and falling by significant amounts for agriculture-specialized households elsewhere in Asia and Latin America. The potential for such large distributional effects within and across countries emphasizes the importance of looking beyond central case climate shocks and beyond a simple focus on yields – or highly aggregated poverty impacts.
427 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors construct a river basin index to characterize governance approaches in 18 Brazilian river basins, apply a reliability test to assess the validity of these governance indicators, and use in-depth qualitative data collected in a subsample of the basins to explore the relationship between the governance indicators and adaptive capacity.
Abstract: Governance and institutions are critical determinants of adaptive capacity and resilience. Yet the make-up and relationships between governance components and mechanisms that may or may not contribute to adaptive capacity remain relatively unexplored empirically. This paper builds on previous research focusing on integrated water resources management in Brazil to ‘unpack’ water governance mechanisms that may shape the adaptive capacity of water systems to climatic change. We construct a river basin index to characterize governance approaches in 18 Brazilian river basins, apply a reliability test to assess the validity of these governance indicators, and use in-depth qualitative data collected in a subsample of the basins to explore the relationship between the governance indicators and adaptive capacity. The analysis suggests a positive relationship between integrated water governance mechanisms and adaptive capacity. In addition, we carry out a cluster analysis to group the basins into types of governance approaches and further unveil potential relationships between the governance variables and overall adaptive capacities. The cluster analysis indicates that tensions and tradeoffs may exist between some of the variables, especially with equality of decision making and knowledge availability; a finding that has implications for decision makers aiming to build adaptive capacity and resilience through governance and institutional means.
412 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors examined evidence on the role social networks play in individuals' responses to heat wave risk in a case study in the UK and found that strong bonding networks could potentially exacerbate rather than reduce the vulnerability of elderly people to the effects of heat waves.
Abstract: It has been claimed that high social capital contributes to both positive public health outcomes and to climate change adaptation. Strong social networks have been said to support individuals and collective initiatives of adaptation and enhance resilience. As a result, there is an expectation that social capital could reduce vulnerability to risks from the impacts of climate change in the health sector. This paper examines evidence on the role social networks play in individuals’ responses to heat wave risk in a case study in the UK. Based on interviews with independently living elderly people and their primary social contacts in London and Norwich, we suggest that strong bonding networks could potentially exacerbate rather than reduce the vulnerability of elderly people to the effects of heat waves. Most respondents interviewed did not feel that heat waves posed a significant risk to them personally, and most said that they would be able to cope with hot weather. Bonding networks could perpetuate rather than challenge these narratives and therefore contribute to vulnerability rather than ameliorating it. These results suggest a complex rather than uniformly positive relationship between social capital, health and adaptation to climate change.
402 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors developed a global land use model (MAgPIE) that is suited to assess future anthropogenic agricultural non-CO 2 GHG emissions from various agricultural activities by combining socioeconomic information on population, income, food demand, and production costs with spatially explicit environmental data on potential crop yields.
Abstract: Today, the agricultural sector accounts for approximately 15% of total global anthropogenic emissions, mainly methane and nitrous oxide. Projecting the future development of agricultural non-CO 2 greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is important to assess their impacts on the climate system but poses many problems as future demand of agricultural products is highly uncertain. We developed a global land use model (MAgPIE) that is suited to assess future anthropogenic agricultural non-CO 2 GHG emissions from various agricultural activities by combining socio-economic information on population, income, food demand, and production costs with spatially explicit environmental data on potential crop yields. In this article we describe how agricultural non-CO 2 GHG emissions are implemented within MAgPIE and compare our simulation results with other studies. Furthermore, we apply the model up to 2055 to assess the impact of future changes in food consumption and diet shifts, but also of technological mitigation options on agricultural non-CO 2 GHG emissions. As a result, we found that global agricultural non-CO 2 emissions increase significantly until 2055 if food energy consumption and diet preferences remain constant at the level of 1995. Non-CO 2 GHG emissions will rise even more if increasing food energy consumption and changing dietary preferences towards higher value foods, like meat and milk, with increasing income are taken into account. In contrast, under a scenario of reduced meat consumption, non-CO 2 GHG emissions would decrease even compared to 1995. Technological mitigation options in the agricultural sector have also the capability of decreasing non-CO 2 GHG emissions significantly. However, these technological mitigation options are not as effective as changes in food consumption. Highest reduction potentials will be achieved by a combination of both approaches.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors explore barriers to identify powerful levers by which action can be triggered and sustained at the local level through the study of three municipalities in the Lower Mainland of British Columbia, Canada.
Abstract: Despite a wealth of financial, technical, and human capacity in Canadian cities, it remains a challenging task to transform this capacity into effective climate change adaptation and mitigation. Indeed, mitigative and adaptive capacities only represent the potential to achieve the ultimate goals of greenhouse gas and vulnerability reduction. This paper builds on previous explorations of barriers to identify powerful levers by which action can be triggered and sustained at the local level through the study of three municipalities in the Lower Mainland of British Columbia, Canada. The necessity of an explicitly articulated high-level directive, leadership that stimulates an organizational culture of innovation and collaboration, and the ‘institutionalization’ of climate change response measures within standard operating procedures emerged as crucial enablers of action. Addressing a lack of technical, financial, or human resources is less a matter of creating more capacity than of facilitating the effective use of existing resources. This facilitation depends most fundamentally on re-working the path dependent institutional structures, organizational culture and policy-making procedures that have characterized the unsuccessful patterns of climate change policy development in the past. The ultimate goal is to contribute to the ongoing efforts to adapt institutions to the complex and uncertain futures associated with a changing climate, while simultaneously embedding broader sustainability goals in long-range strategic planning.
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors investigate whether and to what extent a wide range of actors in the UK are adapting to climate change, and whether this is evidence of a social transition, and they find that adaptation has been dominated by government initiatives and has principally occurred in the form of research into climate change impacts.
Abstract: This paper investigates whether and to what extent a wide range of actors in the UK are adapting to climate change, and whether this is evidence of a social transition. We document evidence of over 300 examples of early adopters of adaptation practice to climate change in the UK. These examples span a range of activities from small adjustments (or coping), to building adaptive capacity, to implementing actions and to creating deeper systemic change in public and private organisations in a range of sectors. We find that adaptation in the UK has been dominated by government initiatives and has principally occurred in the form of research into climate change impacts. These government initiatives have stimulated a further set of actions at other scales in public agencies, regulatory agencies and regional government (and the devolved administrations), though with little real evidence of climate change adaptation initiatives trickling down to local government level. The sectors requiring significant investment in large scale infrastructure have invested more heavily than those that do not in identifying potential impacts and adaptations. Thus we find a higher level of adaptation activity by the water supply and flood defence sectors. Sectors that are not dependent on large scale infrastructure appear to be investing far less effort and resources in preparing for climate change. We conclude that the UK government-driven top-down targeted adaptation approach has generated anticipatory action at low cost in some areas. We also conclude that these actions may have created enough niche activities to allow for diffusion of new adaptation practices in response to real or perceived climate change. These results have significant implications for how climate policy can be developed to support autonomous adaptors in the UK and other countries.
TL;DR: In this article, a special issue brings together prominent scholars to explore novel multilevel governance challenges posed by the behavior of dynamic and complex social-ecological systems, and discuss the challenges of multi-level governance.
Abstract: This special issue brings together prominent scholars to explore novel multilevel governance challenges posed by the behavior of dynamic and complex social-ecological systems. Here we expand and in ...
TL;DR: The authors explored adaptation strategies by focusing on livelihood diversification in the face of the most recent of recurrent droughts in the Sahel and found that culture acts as a major barrier to embracing four successful livelihood strategies: labour migration, working for development projects, gardening, and engagement of women in economic activities.
Abstract: Human adaptation to climate change is a heterogeneous process influenced by more than economic and technological development. It is increasingly acknowledged in the adaptation to climate change literature that factors such as class, gender and culture play a large role when adaptation strategies are either chosen or rejected at the local scale. This paper explores adaptation strategies by focusing on livelihood diversification in the face of the most recent of recurrent droughts in the Sahel. It is shown that for Fulbe, one of the two main ethnic groups in the small village in Northern Burkina Faso studied, culture acts as a major barrier to embracing four of the most successful livelihood strategies: labour migration, working for development projects, gardening, and the engagement of women in economic activities.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors examine three facets of the global environmental change paradigm: making global kinds of knowledge, globalising environmental values and the governance of knowledge-making, as suggested through the perspectives of a nascent geography of science.
Abstract: During its 20 years of publication, the journal Global Environmental Change has given visibility and coherence to the eponymous research paradigm. Global environmental research has brought forth new kinds of knowledge about the multi-scale interactions between physical and social dimensions of the environment. This essay reflects on some of the problems with making and governing these global kinds of knowledge, as suggested through the perspectives of a nascent geography of science. I use climate change – an emblematic theme of global environmental change research over the last 20 years – to examine three facets of the global environmental change paradigm: making global kinds of knowledge, globalising environmental values and the governance of knowledge-making. New global kinds of knowledge have gained power and visibility in contemporary scientific, public and political fora and yet such knowledge can be ‘brittle’, easily cracked and broken. A geography of global environmental change knowledge therefore demands we turn our attention away from the globalising instincts that so easily erase difference and collapse meaning, and instead concern ourselves with understanding the relationships between knowledge-making and human culture in evolving places. Only then will we recognise the ambiguities, voids and blind spots in our understanding of the world's complexity.
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors employ the SES framework developed to study resilience, vulnerability, and adaptation in socio-ecological systems in an effort to illuminate the conditions leading to state changes in environmental and resource regimes.
Abstract: Like all social institutions, governance systems that address human-environment relations - commonly know as environmental or resource regimes - are dynamic. Although analysts have examined institutional change from a variety of perspectives, a particularly puzzling feature of institutional dynamics arises from the fact that some regimes linger on relatively unchanged even after they have become ineffective, while others experience state changes or even collapse in the wake of seemingly modest trigger events. This article employs the framework developed to study resilience, vulnerability, and adaptation in socio-ecological systems (the SES framework) in an effort to illuminate the conditions leading to state changes in environmental and resource regimes. Following a discussion of several conceptual issues, it examines institutional stresses, stress management mechanisms, and the changes that occur when interactive and cumulative stresses overwhelm these mechanisms. An important conclusion concerns the desirability of thinking systematically about institutional reform in a timely manner, in order to be prepared for brief windows of opportunity to make planned changes in environmental regimes when state changes occur.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present a semi-quantitative analysis of the disparity between countries' responsibility for climate change, their capability to act and assist, and their vulnerability to climate change for four climate-sensitive sectors based on a broad range of disaggregated vulnerability indicators.
Abstract: While it is generally asserted that those countries who have contributed least to anthropogenic climate change are most vulnerable to its adverse impacts some recently developed indices of vulnerability to climate change come to a different conclusion. Confirmation or rejection of this assertion is complicated by the lack of an agreed metric for measuring countries’ vulnerability to climate change and by conflicting interpretations of vulnerability. This paper presents a comprehensive semi-quantitative analysis of the disparity between countries’ responsibility for climate change, their capability to act and assist, and their vulnerability to climate change for four climate-sensitive sectors based on a broad range of disaggregated vulnerability indicators. This analysis finds a double inequity between responsibility and capability on the one hand and the vulnerability of food security, human health, and coastal populations on the other. This double inequity is robust across alternative indicator choices and interpretations of vulnerability. The main cause for the higher vulnerability of poor nations who have generally contributed little to climate change is their lower adaptive capacity. In addition, the biophysical sensitivity and socio-economic exposure of poor nations to climate impacts on food security and human health generally exceeds that of wealthier nations. No definite statement can be made on the inequity associated with climate impacts on water supply due to large uncertainties about future changes in regional water availability and to conflicting indicators of current water scarcity. The robust double inequity between responsibility and vulnerability for most climate-sensitive sectors strengthens the moral case for financial and technical assistance from those countries most responsible for climate change to those countries most vulnerable to its adverse impacts. However, the complex and geographically heterogeneous patterns of vulnerability factors for different climate-sensitive sectors suggest that the allocation of international adaptation funds to developing countries should be guided by sector-specific or hazard-specific criteria despite repeated requests from participants in international climate negotiations to develop a generic index of countries’ vulnerability to climate change.
TL;DR: It is argued for a more locally embedded and socially contingent production of actionable knowledge and suggestions about ways to enhance effectiveness of research-based knowledge are made.
Abstract: This paper presents the results of a case study analysis from the knowledge domains of vulnerability and resilience. We analyzed 20 scientific assessments to provide empirical evidence for successes and failures in collaborative knowledge production, i.e., the joint creation of assessments reports by researchers and decision makers in policy and practice. It became clear that the latter typically use insufficiently the research-based knowledge available and researchers typically produce insufficiently knowledge that is directly usable. We found a number of functional, structural, and social factors inhibiting a joint problem identification and framing of knowledge producers and potential users: divergent objectives, needs, scope, and priorities; different institutional settings and standards, as well as differing cultural values, understanding, and mistrust. Combining understanding from multiple sources and providing mechanisms for linking solutions proposed by research with articulated needs and problems of practitioners would reduce the discrepancies in activities of different actors and result in more timely and context-appropriate solutions. In the concluding section we argue for a more locally embedded and socially contingent production of actionable knowledge and make suggestions about ways to enhance effectiveness of research-based knowledge.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors highlight fieldwork on rapid and slow-onset environmentally induced migration in Mozambique, Vietnam, and Egypt and highlight the challenges for governance of environmentally-induced migration under increasing complexity, as well as opportunities to enhance resilience of both migrants and those who remain behind.
Abstract: Claims have been made that global environmental change could drive anywhere from 50 to almost 700 million people to migrate by 2050. These claims belie the complexity of the multi-causal relationship between coupled social–ecological systems and human mobility, yet they have fueled the debate about “environmentally induced migration”. Empirical evidence, notably from a 23 case study scoping study supported by the European Commission, confirms that currently environmental factors are one of many variables driving migration. Fieldwork reveals a multifaceted landscape of patterns and contexts for migration linked to rapid- and slow-onset environmental change today. Migration and displacement are part of a spectrum of possible responses to environmental change. Some forms of environmentally induced migration may be adaptive, while other forms of forced migration and displacement may indicate a failure of the social–ecological system to adapt. This diversity of migration potentials linked to environmental change presents challenges to institutions and policies not designed to cope with the impacts of complex causality, surprises and uncertainty about social–ecological thresholds, and the possibility of environmental and migration patterns recombining into a new patterns. The paper highlights fieldwork on rapid- and slow-onset environmentally induced migration in Mozambique, Vietnam, and Egypt. Current governance frameworks for human mobility are partially equipped to manage new forms of human mobility, but that new complementary modes of governance will be necessary. The paper concludes with challenges for governance of environmentally induced migration under increasing complexity, as well as opportunities to enhance resilience of both migrants and those who remain behind.
TL;DR: In this paper, a pathways approach is proposed to address the governance challenges posed by the dynamics of complex, coupled, multi-scale systems, while incorporating explicit concern for equity, social justice and the wellbeing of poor and marginalised groups.
Abstract: This paper elaborates a ‘pathways approach’ to addressing the governance challenges posed by the dynamics of complex, coupled, multi-scale systems, while incorporating explicit concern for equity, social justice and the wellbeing of poor and marginalised groups. It illustrates the approach in relation to current policy challenges of dealing with epidemics and so-called ‘emerging infectious diseases’ such as avian influenza and haemorrhagic fevers, which involve highly dynamic, cross-scale, often-surprising viral–social–political–ecological interactions. Amidst complexity, we show how different actors in the epidemics field produce particular narratives which frame systems and their dynamics in different ways, promote particular goals and values, and justify particular pathways of disease response. These range from ‘outbreak narratives’ emphasising threat to global populations, to alternative but often marginalised narratives variously emphasising long-term structural, land use and environmental change, local knowledge and livelihood goals. We highlight tendencies – supported by cognitive, institutional and political pressures – for powerful actors and institutions to ‘close down’ around narratives that emphasise stability, underplaying longer term, less controllable dynamics. Arguing that governance approaches need to ‘open up’ to embrace strategies for resilience and robustness in relation to epidemics, we outline what some of the routes towards this might involve, and what the resulting governance models might look like. Key are practices and arrangements that involve flexibility, diversity, adaptation, learning and reflexivity, as well as highlighting and supporting alternative pathways within a progressive politics of sustainability.
TL;DR: This paper explored the role of risk perception in adaptation to stress through comparative case studies of coffee farmers' responses to climatic and non-climatic stressors and found that farmers who associated events with high risk were not more likely to engage in specific adaptations.
Abstract: This article explores the role of risk perception in adaptation to stress through comparative case studies of coffee farmers’ responses to climatic and non-climatic stressors. We hypothesized that farmers associating these changes with high risk would be more likely to make adaptations than those who saw the events as part of normal variation. Nevertheless, we found that farmers who associated events with high risk were not more likely to engage in specific adaptations. Adaptive responses were more clearly associated with access to land than perception of risk, suggesting that adaptation is more a function of exogenous constraints on decision making than perception.
TL;DR: This article examined the capacity of cattle-graziers in Australia to cope and adapt to climate variability as a precursor for understanding their vulnerability to climate change by assessing: (i) their perception of risk, (ii) their capacity to plan, learn and reorganise, (iii) their proximity to the thresholds of coping, and (iv) their level of interest in adapting to change.
Abstract: Resource-dependent industries are particularly vulnerable to climate change, and their ability to adapt will be as critical to society as to the natural systems upon which they rely. More than ever, resource-users will need to anticipate, and prepare for, climate-related changes, and institutions will need to be particularly supportive, if resource industries and the extended social systems dependent on them are to be sustained. I examine the capacity of cattle-graziers in Australia to cope and adapt to climate variability as a precursor for understanding their vulnerability to climate change by assessing: (i) their perception of risk, (ii) their capacity to plan, learn and reorganise, (iii) their proximity to the thresholds of coping, and (iv) their level of interest in adapting to change. Graziers perceived themselves to be resilient to climate variability in their perceptions of climate risk, reorganising capacity, coping, and interest in adapting. Their dependency on the grazing resource and use of seasonal climate forecasts were significant influences, suggesting that resilience could be enhanced. Facilitated collaborative learning amongst graziers and other stakeholders may assist to develop strategic skills, increasing climate awareness, developing financial security and adopt climate tools such as seasonal climate forecasts. Enhanced strategies for coping with climate variability will provide a way for encouraging gradual, incremental adjustments for climate adaptation.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors identify and examine how policy intervention can help Canada's Inuit population adapt to climate change, based on an understanding of the determinants of vulnerability identified in research conducted with 15 Inuit communities.
Abstract: We identify and examine how policy intervention can help Canada’s Inuit population adapt to climate change. The policy responses are based on an understanding of the determinants of vulnerability identified in research conducted with 15 Inuit communities. A consistent approach was used in each case study where vulnerability is conceptualized as a function of exposure-sensitivity to climatic risks and adaptive capacity to deal with those risks. This conceptualization focuses on the biophysical and human determinants of vulnerability and how they are influenced by processes and conditions operating at multiple spatial-temporal scales. Case studies involved close collaboration with community members and policy makers to identify conditions to which each community is currently vulnerable, characterize the factors that shape vulnerability and how they have changed over time, identify opportunities for adaptation policy, and examine how adaptation can be mainstreamed. Fieldwork, conducted between 2006 and 2009, included 443 semi-structured interviews, 20 focus groups/community workshops, and 65 interviews with policy makers at local, regional, and national levels. Synthesizing findings consistent across the case studies we document significant vulnerabilities, a function of socio-economic stresses and change, continuing and pervasive inequality, and magnitude of climate change. Nevertheless, adaptations are available, feasible, and Inuit have considerable adaptive capacity. Realizing this adaptive capacity and overcoming adaptation barriers requires policy intervention to: (i) support the teaching and transmission of environmental knowledge and land skills, (ii) enhance and review emergency management capability, (iii) ensure the flexibility of resource management regimes, (iv) provide economic support to facilitate adaptation for groups with limited household income, (v) increase research effort to identify short and long term risk factors and adaptive response options, (vi) protect key infrastructure, and (vii) promote awareness of climate change impacts and adaptation among policy makers.
TL;DR: In this paper, a more robust analysis and prediction of climate change at local levels can be inferred from the integration of local people's observation of change with meteorological records and models.
Abstract: Predictions of climate change and its impacts are highly uncertain at regional and local levels. Downscaled models often operate with a too coarse scale and look at standard parameters that may be irrelevant to resource-dependent people. This article argues that a more robust analysis and prediction of climate change at local levels can be inferred from the integration of local people's observation of change with meteorological records and models. The example proposed here is the analysis of climate change in the desert-steppe region of Mongolia. While regional models and local analyses agree that Mongolia has become warmer, predictions either ignore or are contradictory about the changes in precipitations and sand storms. The Mongolian pastoral nomads on the other hand identify longer and more intense droughts and sand storms as the most important recent climatic changes, relevant to their livelihoods. In addition, they record detailed changes in the precipitations regime. Thus, they are unequivocal that rains have become patchy – ‘silk embroidery rains’ – (forcing pastoralists to move farther and more frequently), more intense (thus less effective due to runoff) and that summer rains are delayed (reducing the growing season). The observations of the pastoralists can only partly be investigated in light of meteorological records due to different parameters observed by the two systems. Nevertheless, additional evidence derived from the analysis of meteorological records resonates with the perceptions of the herders and adds elements for further investigation. This combined evidence suggests that due to a southern shift of the East Asian Monsoon, rains in southern Mongolia rely on re-circulated local moisture, leading to large-scale droughts and in turn more frequent sand storms. The analysis provided herein shows that combining the two knowledge systems (local people's observations and climatology) holds the potential to provide more reliant and relevant investigations of climate change and allow for better planned adaptations.
TL;DR: A vulnerability framework is used to identify the broad level factors constraining adaptive capacity and increasing sensitivity to climate change and supports the need for collaboration across all sectors and levels of government, open and meaningful dialogue between policy makers, scientists, health professionals, and Aboriginal communities, and capacity building at a local level to plan for climate change.
Abstract: Climate change has been identified as potentially the biggest health threat of the 21st century. Canada in general has a well developed public health system and low burden of health which will moderate vulnerability. However, there is significant heterogeneity in health outcomes, and health inequality is particularly pronounced among Aboriginal Canadians. Intervention is needed to prevent, prepare for, and manage climate change effects on Aboriginal health but is constrained by a limited understanding of vulnerability and its determinants. Despite limited research on climate change and Aboriginal health, however, there is a well established literature on Aboriginal health outcomes, determinants, and trends in Canada; characteristics that will determine vulnerability to climate change. In this paper we systematically review this literature, using a vulnerability framework to identify the broad level factors constraining adaptive capacity and increasing sensitivity to climate change. Determinants identified include: poverty, technological capacity constraints, socio-political values and inequality, institutional capacity challenges, and information deficit. The magnitude and nature of these determinants will be distributed unevenly within and between Aboriginal populations necessitating place-based and regional level studies to examine how these broad factors will affect vulnerability at lower levels. The study also supports the need for collaboration across all sectors and levels of government, open and meaningful dialogue between policy makers, scientists, health professionals, and Aboriginal communities, and capacity building at a local level, to plan for climate change. Ultimately, however, efforts to reduce the vulnerability of Aboriginal Canadians to climate change and intervene to prevent, reduce, and manage climate-sensitive health outcomes, will fail unless the broader determinants of socio-economic and health inequality are addressed.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present two essentially different models of collective response to severe challenges, one portraying effective response as collective action through central leadership and contraction of power, and the other conceiving of societal response as involving a variety of local activities undertaken by subunits of a complex and decentralised system.
Abstract: Some important processes of environmental change – including those of climate change and loss of biodiversity – share three characteristics that make them extremely demanding challenges of governance. First, time-lags between human action and environmental effect are very long, often extending beyond one human generation. Second, problems are embedded in highly complex systems that are not well understood. Third, these problems involve global collective goods of a type that links them to a wide range of human activities and leaves them beyond the scope of unilateral solutions. Social science research offers two essentially different models of collective response to severe challenges. One portrays effective response as collective action through central leadership and contraction of power. The other conceives of societal response as involving a variety of local activities undertaken by subunits of a complex and decentralised system. I argue that both models have considerable merit, but also that they respond to different types of challenges. Therefore, useful insights can be gained by specifying more precisely the circumstances under which each model applies.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors estimate future potential damage from river flooding, and analyse the relative role of land-use, asset value increase and climate change on these losses, for a case study area in The Netherlands.
Abstract: Damages from weather related disasters are projected to increase, due to a combination of increasing exposure of people and assets, and expected changes in the global climate. Only few studies have assessed in detail the potential range of losses in the future and the factors contributing to the projected increase. Here we estimate future potential damage from river flooding, and analyse the relative role of land-use, asset value increase and climate change on these losses, for a case study area in The Netherlands. Projections of future socioeconomic change (land-use change and increase in the value of assets) are used in combination with flood scenarios, projections of flooding probabilities, and a simple damage model. It is found that due to socioeconomic change, annual expected losses may increase by between 35 and 172% by the year 2040, compared to the baseline situation in the year 2000. If no additional measures are taken to reduce flood probabilities or consequences, climate change may lead to an increase in expected losses of between 46 and 201%. A combination of climate and socioeconomic change may increase expected losses by between 96 and 719%. Asset value increase has a large role, as it may lead to a doubling of losses. The use of single loss estimates may lead to underestimation of the impact of extremely high losses. We therefore also present loss–probability curves for future risks, in order to assess the increase of the most extreme potential loss events. Our approach thus allows a more detailed and comprehensive assessment than previous studies that could also be applied in other study areas to generate flood risk projections. Adaptation through flood prevention measures according to currently planned strategies would counterbalance the increase in expected annual losses due to climate change under all scenarios.
TL;DR: In this article, the Ad Hoc Working Group on Long-term Cooperative Action (AWG-LCA) was ready to endorse REDD-plus and to make explicit reference to the rights of indigenous peoples and members of local communities.
Abstract: At Copenhagen, the Ad Hoc Working Group on Long-term Cooperative Action (AWG-LCA) was ready to endorse REDD-plus and to make explicit reference to the “rights of indigenous peoples and members of local communities” (UNFCCC, 2009). The reference is important because it acknowledges the historical background from which REDD-plus is developing: the historical dispossession, political exclusion and cultural marginalization of indigenous peoples and members of local communities (hereafter referred to as “forest people”). Recent experience with the recognition of forest people's rights suggests three broad principles for operationalizing rights under REDD-plus: participation in political decision-making, equitable distribution of forest benefits, and recognition of forest people's particular identities. In addition, the emphasis on rights requires the development of decision-making processes at multiple scales and related across scales. Global-scale institutions will be important but not sufficient in themselves. Effective and equitable REDD-plus requires nested forest and climate governance.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors provide an estimate of material use and resource efficiency in the Asia-Pacific region and its sub-regions for the first time, to complement existing knowledge on global resource use.
Abstract: Over the last few decades, the Asia–Pacific region has experienced the most dynamic economic development of any of the world's regions, leading to a rapid increase in resource use and associated emissions. The region is now a major driver towards overshooting global resource use limits. In this paper, we provide an estimate of material use and resource efficiency in the Asia–Pacific region and its sub-regions for the first time, to complement existing knowledge on global resource use. We show that the Asia–Pacific has become the single largest user of resources globally, and that the efficiency of resource use in the region decreased over the period 1970–2005. Furthermore we show that the region's share of total resource use is now so significant that decreasing resource efficiency there has driven a decrease in overall global resource efficiency, for the first time in a century. Using an IPAT framework we found that rising per capita incomes contributed more strongly to growing material use than did population growth. Technology did not moderate material use growth to the extent expected. We argue that a failure to make these issues a central and immediate focus of public policy in the Asia–Pacific region would compromise competitiveness, resource security, and poverty reduction in the region over the medium to long term.