Kiel Institute for the World Economy

About: Kiel Institute for the World Economy is a facility organization based out in Kiel, Germany. It is known for research contribution in the topics: Foreign direct investment & Productivity. The organization has 318 authors who have published 1909 publications receiving 42832 citations. The organization is also known as: Institut für Weltwirtschaft an der Universität Kiel.

Persistence in Corporate Networks

Abstract: We examine the bipartite graphs of German corporate boards in 1993, 1999 and 2005, and identify cores of directors who are highly central in the entire network while being densely connected among themselves. The novel feature of this paper is the focus on the dynamics of these networks. Germany's corporate governance has experienced significant changes during this time, and there is substantial turnover in the identity of core members, yet we observe the persistent presence of a network core, which is even robust to changes in the tail distribution of multiple board memberships. Anecdotal evidence suggests that core persistence originates from the board appointment decisions of largely capitalized corporations.

Estimating fundamental cross-section dispersion from fixed event forecasts

Abstract: A couple of recent papers have shifted the focus towards disagreement of professional forecasters. When dealing with survey data that is sampled at a frequency higher than annual and that includes only fixed event forecasts, e.g. expectation of average annual growth rates measures of disagreement across forecasters naturally are distorted by a component that mainly reflects the time varying forecast horizon. We use data from the Survey of Professional Forecasters, which reports both fixed event and fixed horizon forecasts, to evaluate different methods for extracting the ``fundamental'' component of disagreement. Based on the paper's results we suggest two methods to estimate dispersion measures from panels of fixed event forecasts: a moving average transformation of the underlying forecasts and estimation with constant forecast-horizon-effects. Both models are easy to handle and deliver equally well performing results, which show a surprisingly high correlation (up to 0.94) with the true dispersion.

Nato as an external driver of institutional change in post‐communist countries

Abstract: So far, economic analyses of NATO enlargement have been restricted to aspects of regional security while political analyses focused on indirect peace‐building effects on democracy in the first place. Our panel regressions for 25 post‐communist countries for the period from 1996 to 2008 reveal that direct incentives provided by NATO pre‐accession are important for broad‐based institutional development. Results are even more robust than for variables measuring EU pre‐accession or NATO membership effects. This supports the argument that NATO can act as a transformative power and should strengthen its political agenda.

Estimating simple fiscal policy reaction functions for the euro area countries

Abstract: We formulate and estimate a simple fiscal policy reaction function for the euro area and individual euro area countries. Our reaction function allows for primary surpluses to feature three components: an anti-cyclical response of primary surpluses to the output gap, a response to the debt-GDP ratio, and an exogenous fiscal policy shifter. In line with the cyclical adjustment literature and in contrast with much of the previous time-series literature, we find a consistently strong anti-cyclical response of primary surpluses to the output gap for the euro area. We also find a consistently strong positive response of primary surpluses to the debt-GDP ratio. Our estimates are robust to different output gap measures and to different assumptions regarding the order of integration of observables. In addition, we provide statistical evidence in favor of our specification of a fiscal policy reaction function which features persistent fiscal policy shocks as opposed to an alternative specification found in the literature which features fiscal policy smoothing. Altogether, our results help to reconcile widely differing estimates from the literature, and we argue that our results may therefore provide guidance to forecasters and policymakers.

The role of personal relationships for doing business in the GPRD, China: evidence from Hong Kong electronics SMEs

Abstract: This paper investigates the role of personal relationships for doing business in the Greater Pearl River Delta, China. First, it discusses the interplay of formal and informal (relationship-based) institutions from the point of view of institutional economics, with a focus on economies with weak formal contracting and property rights institutions. Second, it describes the institutional environment for doing business in China, and in the PRD in particular. Third, it uses data obtained from a survey among executives of Hong Kong electronics SMEs with business operations in the PRD to gain insights into their perceptions on the importance and the motives of using personal relationships for business in PRD in general, and on the impact of personal relationships on different strategic business decisions (on location, partner, and formal governance structures) for companies’ production as well as innovation activities. The results confirm the importance of personal relationships for doing business in the PRD, in general. There is evidence of substantial differences as to the role of personal relationships between production and innovation activities.