Showing papers by "Kiel Institute for the World Economy published in 2019"
TL;DR: The results suggest that production gains will occur at the costs of biodiversity predominantly in developing tropical regions, while Europe and North America benefit from lower world market prices without putting their own biodiversity at risk.
Abstract: With rising demand for biomass, cropland expansion and intensification represent the main strategies to boost agricultural production, but are also major drivers of biodiversity decline. We investigate the consequences of attaining equal global production gains by 2030, either by cropland expansion or intensification, and analyse their impacts on agricultural markets and biodiversity. We find that both scenarios lead to lower crop prices across the world, even in regions where production decreases. Cropland expansion mostly affects biodiversity hotspots in Central and South America, while cropland intensification threatens biodiversity especially in Sub-Saharan Africa, India and China. Our results suggest that production gains will occur at the costs of biodiversity predominantly in developing tropical regions, while Europe and North America benefit from lower world market prices without putting their own biodiversity at risk. By identifying hotspots of potential future conflicts, we demonstrate where conservation prioritization is needed to balance agricultural production with conservation goals.
270 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors investigate whether foreign aid from China is prone to political capture in aid-receiving countries and examine whether more Chinese aid is allocated to the birth regions of political leaders, controlling for indicators of need and various fixed effects.
199 citations
116 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors focus on the dynamics of the gold price against bonds, stocks and exchange rates based on a disaggregation of the underlying relationships across different frequencies applying a wavel.
Abstract: This study focuses on the dynamics of the gold price against bonds, stocks and exchange rates based on a disaggregation of the underlying relationships across different frequencies applying a wavel
69 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors highlight the need to make an assessment of the global gender gap and develop meaningful indicators that contribute to the design and implementation of effective policies that drive adoption.
Abstract: Despite the headway the world has experienced over the last couple of years in terms of a substantial increase in digital access, there are still significant challenges to overcome in ensuring women are included in the transformation to a digital society, which in turn will enhance productivity and social development. Efforts to increase internet adoption access through broadband plans and legislative reforms have yielded improvements in use and adoption. However, there is still a stark and pervasive gender inequality in terms of access, ownership of digital devices, digital fluency as well as the capacity to make meaningful use of the access to technology. Even though affordability is a key source of exclusion, there are also significant socio-cultural norms that restrict access for women. This paper brings forward the argument that access alone is not enough, women need agency and capacity to leverage access. The authors thus highlight the need to make an assessment of the global gender gap and develop meaningful indicators that contribute to the design and implementation of effective policies that drive adoption. We need effective promotion of women's digital adoption not only from the government but also from the private sector and civil society in order to lead the digital adoption of best practices for women around the world.
67 citations
TL;DR: This paper investigated whether foreign aid affects refugee flows from recipient countries and found no evidence that aid reduces worldwide refugee outflows or flows to donor countries in the short-term, but observed long-run effects after four three-year periods, which appear to be driven by lagged positive effects of aid on growth.
54 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors investigated whether the relationship between a person's occupational status and well-being differs across countries with varying institutional contexts, and they found that job and life satisfaction of self-employed people as well as of paid employees varies considerably across countries.
46 citations
TL;DR: The authors examined foreign exchange intervention based on novel daily data covering 33 countries from 1995 to 2011 and found that intervention is widely used and an effective policy tool, with a success rate in excess of 80 percent under some criteria.
Abstract: This paper examines foreign exchange intervention based on novel daily data covering 33 countries from 1995 to 2011. We find that intervention is widely used and an effective policy tool, with a success rate in excess of 80 percent under some criteria. The policy works well in terms of smoothing the path of exchange rates, and in stabilizing the exchange rate in countries with narrow band regimes. Moving the level of the exchange rate in flexible regimes requires that some conditions are met, including the use of large volumes and that intervention is made public and supported via communication.
43 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors used a survey for more than 100 countries to examine whether firms' female managers or female owners were better at bringing innovations to the market than males, and found that female owners rather than female managers were more likely to introduce innovations.
Abstract: This paper uses firm-level survey for more than 100 countries to examine whether firms’ female managers or female owners were better at bringing innovations to the market than males. In contrast to most of the literature that focuses on the performance of female managers/owners, this paper addresses conduct with regard to innovation. Results show that female owners, rather than female managers, were more likely to introduce innovations. Further, R&D performing firms introduced innovations, as did larger and older firms. The presence of an informal sector and finance availability constraints actually spurred innovation introductions, with economic prosperity leading to complacency in innovation introductions.
41 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors provided evidence on the impact of the agriculture-related external support on farmers' adaptation to climate change in the Central Highlands of Afghanistan, where they collected primary data from 1434 farmers and interviewed across 14 districts in Bamiyan, Ghazni, and Diakundi provinces.
36 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors present an evaluation of energy supply strategies for Egypt's power sector and identify prospects to meet rising electricity demand while addressing energy security and low-carbon development issues.
TL;DR: In this article, an anonymous expert survey, including 32 Earth-System-Model (ESM) experts and 18 Integrated-Assessment-Model experts, about the role of NETs in future climate policies and about how well the various technologies are represented in current models.
Abstract: Intentionally removing carbon from the atmosphere with negative emission technologies (NETs)will be important to achieve net-zero emissions bymid-century and to limit global warming to 2 °Cor even 1.5 °C (IPCC2018).Model scenarios that considerNETs as part ofmitigation pathways are still largely restricted to afforestation and bioenergywith carbon capture and storage (BECCS), while the ‘[f]easibility and sustainability of [NETs]use could be enhanced by a portfolio of options deployed at substantial, but lesser scales, rather than a single option at very large scale’ (IPCC2018, p 19). Here, we show the results from an anonymous expert survey, including 32 Earth-System-Model (ESM) experts and 18 Integrated-Assessment-Model (IAM) experts, about the role ofNETs in future climate policies and about howwell the various technologies are represented in currentmodels.Wefind that they strongly support the view that technology portfolios are required to achieve negative emissions, however, the responses show that the number and range ofNETs that can be assessed in IAMs is small and that IAMs and ESMs are rather applied to analyze technologies separately than in combination. IAMexperts in particular consider BECCS as part of a futureNETs portfolio; but at the same time, all experts judge the constraints BECCSwould face regarding future overall feasibility andmore particularly regarding resource competition to be the highest. Regarding the assessment of constraints the ESMexperts aremuchmore skeptical than the IAMexperts; they also think that the BECCS carbon removal pathways are less sufficiently represented in ESMs compared towhat the IAMexperts thinks about the representation in theirmodels. Despite the perceived need forNETs portfolios, the range of NETswhich can be assessed in IAMs is rather small and oceanNETs have, so far,mostly been overlooked by the IAMexperts.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors investigated the persistence of self-employment in Kaliningrad, a Russian exclave, between 1925 and 2010, and found that a high level of persistence of industry-specific self employment rates was found.
Abstract: This paper investigates the persistence of self-employment in the districts of Kaliningrad, a Russian exclave, between 1925 and 2010. The area experienced a number of disruptive historical shocks during this period. This setting rules out the fact that the persistence of self-employment can be explained by the persistence of institutions and culture. Nevertheless, a high level of persistence of industry-specific self-employment rates is found. It is argued that a historical tradition of entrepreneurship created an awareness about the entrepreneurial potential of regions among the new population that was yielded after the collapse of the Soviet Union. This effect seems to be higher in regions where a specific industry was advanced in terms of technology use.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors focus on the spillovers from the shadow or the unofficial economy to growth in the official sector and find that shadow activities might spur or retard economic growth depending on their interactions with the formal sector and impacts on the provision of public goods.
Abstract: Taking a long‐term look at U.S. economic growth over 1870–2014, this paper focuses on the spillovers from the shadow or the unofficial economy to growth in the official sector. Shadow activities might spur or retard economic growth depending on their interactions with the formal sector and impacts on the provision of public goods. Nesting the analysis in a standard neoclassical growth model, we use a relatively new time series technique to estimate the short‐run dynamics and long‐run relationship between economic growth and its determinants. Results suggest that prior to World War II (WWII) the shadow economy had a negative effect on economic growth; however, post‐WWII the shadow economy was beneficial for growth. The sanding effect of the shadow economy in the earlier period is especially robust to alternate considerations of possible endogeneity and an alternate set of growth determinants. (JEL E26, O43, O51, K42)
TL;DR: In this article, the authors examined the phasing out of energy subsidies in Egypt under alternative economic scenarios and found that energy subsidy cuts may hamper economic growth in the short term, but depending on the policy measure, will improve growth perspectives and household welfare in the longer term.
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors assess empirically whether monetary policy announcements impact firm expectations and find that the response becomes weaker as the surprise becomes bigger, while large surprises, both negative and positive, fail to alter expectations.
TL;DR: The authors showed that official bilateral (government-to-government) debt is junior, or at least not senior, to private sovereign debt such as bank loans and bonds, and confirmed that multilateral institutions like the IMF and World Bank are senior creditors.
Abstract: Sovereign governments owe debt to many foreign creditors and can choose which creditors to favor when making payments. This paper documents the de facto seniority structure of sovereign debt using new data on defaults (missed payments or arrears) and creditor losses in debt restructuring (haircuts). We overturn conventional wisdom by showing that official bilateral (government-to-government) debt is junior, or at least not senior, to private sovereign debt such as bank loans and bonds. Private creditors are typically paid first and lose less than bilateral official creditors. We confirm that multilateral institutions like the IMF and World Bank are senior creditors.
TL;DR: The authors report high levels of reflectivity about the technologies' risks and challenges, implying that CE experts are unlikely to disentangle themselves from the risks and the challenges of climate engineering.
TL;DR: In this paper, auf Daten der Studie "German Management and Organizational Practices" (GMOP) werden betriebsspezifische Management-Scores berechnet, welche als Indikator fur die Managementqualitat in deutschen Betrieben interpretiert wernd konnen.
Abstract: Basierend auf Daten der Studie "German Management and Organizational Practices" (GMOP) werden betriebsspezifische Management-Scores berechnet, welche als Indikator fur die Managementqualitat in deutschen Betrieben interpretiert werden konnen. Es zeigen sich substantielle Unterschiede in der Nutzung von Managementpraktiken, wobei kleine Betriebe im Durchschnitt niedrigere Scores aufweisen als grose Betriebe. Multivariate Analysen zeigen, dass es einen positiven Zusammenhang zwischen dem Management-Score eines Betriebs und dessen Produktivitat gibt, welcher mit der Firmengrose ansteigt. Ein Vergleich mit ahnlichen, amerikanischen Daten ergibt, dass der durchschnittliche Management-Score in Deutschland niedriger ist als in den USA. Wir sehen darin zum Teil die Erklarung fur bestehende Produktivitatsunterschiede zwischen Deutschland und den USA.
TL;DR: The concept of cultural ecosystem services (CES) is applied to reveal the diverse benefits the Baltic Sea provides to human well-being to emphasize the importance of considering recreation, landscapes and habitats in conservation policies.
Abstract: This paper applies the concept of cultural ecosystem services (CES) to reveal the diverse benefits the Baltic Sea provides to human well-being. The study identifies and defines relevant CES for marine and coastal environments and applies them in a survey with 4800 respondents from Germany, Finland and Latvia. The relative importance of various CES was determined by asking respondents to allocate 100 points between CES related to recreation, landscape, inspiration, learning and education, spiritual experiences and belonging, historically and culturally important places and the existence of habitats. The results reveal significant differences in the importance of various CES across countries, users and nonusers of the Baltic Sea, as well as respondents with different human–nature relationships. The results emphasize the importance of considering recreation, landscapes and habitats in conservation policies, while acknowledging that all CES are perceived as important by some population groups.
TL;DR: In this article, the interdependency between economic growth, international trade, and the use of renewable natural resources under alternative institutional settings of either open access or full property rights was studied.
TL;DR: In this paper, a set of 18 indicators to measure progress against SDG 14 for 15 EU coastal countries in the Baltic and the North Sea and the Atlantic Ocean since 2012 is presented. And the authors distinguish between a concept of weak and strong sustainability, assuming high and low substitution possibilities, respectively.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors investigated variation in the travel pattern of the 14th Dalai Lama to study how political tensions affect trading decisions of Chinese importers and found that a significant reduction of imports in response to foreign government members' meetings with the Dalai Lama was observed.
TL;DR: In this article, the optimal pollution abatement under a mixed oligopoly when firms engage in emissions-reducing research and development (RD) was studied, and the results showed that under certain conditions, the pollution tax is positive; otherwise, the tax reverts to a subsidy.
Abstract: We study optimal pollution abatement under a mixed oligopoly when firms engage in emissions‐reducing research and development (RD however, emissions reductions of the private firm could be positive or zero. Under certain conditions, the optimal pollution tax is positive; otherwise, the tax reverts to a subsidy. Comparing mixed and private duopolies, privatisation leads to reductions in R&D and output, but to an increase in overall emissions, so privatisation tends to make the environment worse.
TL;DR: In this article, the effects of firms' global patent social networks on knowledge flows from business method software patents are examined along several dimensions, including relative centrality, structural equivalence and brokerage roles.
Abstract: Using patent citations as an indicator of knowledge flows, this paper examines the effects of firms’ global patent social networks on knowledge flows from business method software patents. Patent social networks are considered along several dimensions, including relative centrality, structural equivalence and brokerage roles. Identifying 19,385 software patents applications to the USPTO by 37 countries during 1995–2012, results show that firms positioned with a relative centrality or situated within the same structural equivalent cluster have more citations to their counterpart firms’ patents. Further, among the different brokerage roles, we find positive promotion to knowledge transfer when the citing and cited firms both serve the role of an itinerant as well as that of a gatekeeper/representative, while firms that act as gatekeeper/representative (alone) cite less patents from firms that do not enact this kind of a role. These unique insights provide a better understanding of channels of knowledge transmission and have implications for the pace of technological change.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors analyzed the relationship between gold quoted on the Shanghai Gold Exchange and Chinese sectorial stocks from 2009 to 2015 and showed that there is a weak but significant tail dependence between gold and Chinese stock returns.
Abstract: This article analyzes the relationship between gold quoted on the Shanghai Gold Exchange and Chinese sectorial stocks from 2009 to 2015. Using different copulas, our results show that there is weak but significant tail dependence between gold and Chinese sectorial stock returns. This means that the dependence between extreme movements of the two assets is not pronounced and confirms the role of gold as a safe haven asset. Based on analyzing the efficient frontier, CCC-GARCH optimal weights, hedge ratios and hedging effectiveness, we further show that adding gold into Chinese stock portfolios can help to reduce their risk. Gold appears to be the most efficient diversifier for stocks of the materials sector and the less efficient for the utilities sector. As a robustness check, we also compare gold to oil and indicate that gold is more efficient than oil in the diversification of Chinese stock portfolios.
01 Apr 2019
TL;DR: This article studied the duration of sovereign debt crises based on a new data set and case study archive on debt renegotiations between governments and foreign banks and bondholders, and found that domestic political instability is a significant predictor of negotiation delays, after controlling for macroeconomic conditions.
Abstract: Sovereign defaults are bad news for investors and debtor countries, in particular if a default becomes messy and protracted. Why are some debt crises resolved quickly, in a matter of months, while others take many years to settle? This paper studies the duration of sovereign debt crises based on a new data set and case study archive on debt renegotiations between governments and foreign banks and bondholders. Using Cox proportional hazard models, I find that domestic political instability (‘political risk’) is a significant predictor of negotiation delays, after controlling for macroeconomic conditions. Government crises, resignations, and street protests are particularly disruptive for a quick settlement process. Overall, the evidence suggests that debtor countries often lack the political ability to resolve a debt crisis. Governments in turmoil are unlikely to exit a default quickly.
TL;DR: In this article, a cross-cultural investigation across 28 European countries was conducted to investigate how European consumers' knowledge and perceived seriousness of climate change inhibit the activation of counter-arguments, with implications for environmentally motivated consumption reduction.
TL;DR: In this paper, the conditions of the customer's quest for uniqueness were investigated and it was found that consumers are more inclined to choose uniqueness for hedonic product attributes but tend toward conformity in utilitarian attributes, and that consumers need for uniqueness and product involvement moderate the choice.
Abstract: Extant research emphasizes that consumers use mass customization toolkits to create products they consider to be unique, and that perceived uniqueness is an important part of customer value. This research investigates the conditions of the customer's quest for uniqueness. It is motivated by the observation that decisions are often driven by others’ choices and a desire to fit in, rather than to be distinct. We hypothesize that consumers are more inclined to choose uniqueness for hedonic product attributes but tend toward conformity in utilitarian attributes, and that consumers’ need for uniqueness and product involvement moderate the choice. In a series of experiments, we find support for most hypotheses. We introduce conformity as a driver of choice behavior in mass customization toolkits and suggest that mass customization can best be seen as enabling consumers’ preferred mix of uniqueness and conformity. Our results also inform managerial practice, highlighting that mass customization toolkits should consider customers’ uniqueness and conformity requirements. We suggest reducing the number of utilitarian options while increasing the variety for hedonic attributes.
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors investigated the effect of foreign ownership on wages and found that the effect on domestic wages varies with the foreign share and may even turn negative with foreign ownership.
Abstract: The attraction of foreign direct investment (FDI) is considered to be of particular importance for emerging economies because it represents a channel through which international convergence in standards of living may be achieved. One important effect of FDI is its impact on wages, both within the targeted firm (direct) and the local firms within the same geographic region and sector (indirect). In this paper, we investigate the question whether multinational enterprises (MNEs) raise or lower wages directly and indirectly, both theoretically and empirically. Importantly, the magnitude of these changes may depend on how many firms in the sector are already foreign-owned. Generally, the effect of MNEs on wages has not been studied as intensively in the international business (IB) literature as other aspects of FDI, and ours is the first article to specifically investigate the moderating effect of variation in foreign employment shares across industry–province cells (clusters). Using Chinese data on 146,199 firms, we estimate the direct wage effect of foreign ownership to be positive and to increase with the employment share of foreign-owned firms. We also find that the indirect effect on domestic wages varies with the foreign share and may even turn negative.