Showing papers by "Williams College published in 2003"

Assessing the impact of the Green Revolution, 1960 to 2000

Abstract: We summarize the findings of a recently completed study of the productivity impacts of international crop genetic improvement research in developing countries. Over the period 1960 to 2000, international agricultural research centers, in collaboration with national research programs, contributed to the development of “modern varieties” for many crops. These varieties have contributed to large increases in crop production. Productivity gains, however, have been uneven across crops and regions. Consumers generally benefited from declines in food prices. Farmers benefited only where cost reductions exceeded price reductions.

Peer effects in academic outcomes: evidence from a natural experiment

Abstract: I use data from Williams College to implement a quasi-experimental empirical strategy aimed at measuring peer effects in academic outcomes. In particular, I use data on individual students' grades, their SAT scores, and the SAT scores of their roommates. I argue that first-year roommates are assigned randomly with respect to academic ability. This allows me to measure differences in grades of high-, medium-, or low-SAT students living with high-, medium-, or low-SAT roommates. With random assignment these estimates would provide compelling estimates of the effect of roommates' academic characteristics on an individual's grades. I also consider the effect of peers at somewhat more aggregated levels. In particular, I consider the effects associated with different academic environments in clusters of rooms that define distinct social units. The results suggest that peer effects are almost always linked more strongly with verbal SAT scores than with math SAT scores. Students in the middle of the SAT distribut...

Discrimination in the Small Business Credit Market

Abstract: We use data from the 1993 and 1998 National Surveys of Small Business Finances to examine the existence of racial discrimination in the small-business credit market. We conduct an econometric analysis of loan outcomes by race and find that black-owned small businesses are about twice as likely to be denied credit even after controlling for differences in creditworthiness and other factors. A series of specification checks indicates that this gap is unlikely to be explained by omitted variable bias. These results indicate that the racial disparity in credit availability is likely caused by discrimination.

Local Social Capital and Entrepreneurship

Abstract: We aim to contribute to the analysis of the role that spacebound social capital plays in local/regional entrepreneurship. We compare social capital with other forms of capital. The conclusion is that in the main, social capital can be analyzed in the same way as other capital but it has some important special attributes. With these attributes as starting point we sketch an outline model of how the spatially-defined producer surplus and consumer surplus form a place surplus, and of the role played by social capital in the creation of the producer surplus. A "rereading" of Schumpeter shows that he was aware of several aspects of what we denominate entrepreneurship-inhibiting and facilitating aspects of social capital. Finally, we discuss some formal economic modeling approaches to the theoretical relationship between social capital and entrepreneurship.

Behavioral confirmation in the interrogation room: on the dangers of presuming guilt.

Abstract: A two-phased experiment tested the hypothesis that the presumption of guilt that underlies police interrogations activates a process of behavioral confirmation. In Phase I, 52 suspects guilty or innocent of a mock theft were questioned by 52 interrogators led to believe that most suspects were guilty or innocent. Interrogators armed with guilty as opposed to innocent expectations selected more guilt-presumptive questions, used more interrogation techniques, judged the suspect to be guilty, and exerted more pressure to get a confession—particularly when paired with innocent suspects. In Phase II, neutral observers listened to audiotapes of the suspect, interrogator, or both. They perceived suspects in the guilty expectations condition as more defensive—and as somewhat more guilty. Results indicate that a presumption of guilt sets in motion a process of behavioral confirmation by which expectations influence the interrogator's behavior, the suspect's behavior, and ultimately the judgments of neutral observers.

Episodic global dispersal in shallow water marine organisms: the case history of the European shore crabs Carcinus maenas and C. aestuarii

Abstract: Aim This paper evaluates global collection records, evidence of anthropogenic transport methods, and experimental and distributional data relative to temperature requirements to understand the historical and potential dispersal of a well-known genus of estuarine crab. Location The records analysed are from temperate and tropical coastal ocean areas. Methods The study is based primarily on literature analysis and examination of museum specimens. Results The human-mediated successful global dispersal of the European shore crabs Carcinus maenas (Linnaeus, 1758) and C. aestuarii (Nardo, 1847) occurred in three major episodes: around 1800, in the 1850s–70s, and in the 1980s–90s. The nineteenth century introductions occurred through transport by ships (probably in hull fouling or in solid ballast), while the introductions in the 1980s could have occurred through a greater variety of dispersal mechanisms (ships hull fouling and seawater system fouling; fouling on semisubmersible drilling platforms; ballast water; transport with fisheries products intended for food or bait; scientific research; releases from aquaria maintained for educational or scientific purposes; or intentional non-governmental releases for human food production). These introductions have resulted in Carcinus establishment in five temperate regions outside of its native Europe in Atlantic North America, Australia, South Africa, Japan and Pacific North America, while releases into tropical regions have not established populations. C. maenas range in both its native and introduced regions appears to be regulated by similar temperature parameters, enabling an assessment of its potential distribution. Main conclusions The second episode of Carcinus global dispersal, the period from the 1850s to 1870s, may be part of a broader surge of world-wide invasions caused by an increase in shipping.

Regularity of isoperimetric hypersurfaces in Riemannian manifolds

Abstract: We add to the literature the well-known fact that an isoperimetric hypersurface S of dimension at most six in a smooth Riemannian manifold M is a smooth submanifold. If the metric is merely Lipschitz, then S is still Holder differentiable.

The Rise, Fall and Rise Again of Industrial Location Theory

Abstract: M CCANN P. and SHEPPARD S. (2003) The rise, fall and rise again of industrial location theory, Reg. Studies 37 , 649-663. In this paper we will argue that new academic fashions, new international institutional arrangements, new communications technology and new developments in data availability, have all renewed the need for a redevelopment of analytical industrial location theory. Our paper will argue that the microeconomic foundations of industrial location theory must now be reconsidered. In particular, the methodological basis of traditional industrial location models needs to be reconciled with recent models of clustering, the new economic geography literature, and also more aggregate systemic levels of analysis. We will argue that in order to do this it is necessary: first, to specify the transactions-cost assumptions underlying these various approaches; second, to adopt broader definitions of spatial transactions costs; and third, to incorporate environmental characteristics within an orthodox loca...

Governance and Bank Valuation

Abstract: Which public policies and ownership structures enhance the governance of banks? Is the governance of banks different from other corporations? This paper constructs a new database on the ownership of banks internationally and then assesses the ramifications of ownership, shareholder protection laws, and supervisory/regulatory policies on bank valuations. Except in a few countries with very strong shareholder protection laws, banks are not widely held, but rather families or the State tend to control banks. We find that (i) larger cash-flow rights by the controlling owner boosts valuations, (ii) stronger shareholder protection laws increase valuations, and (iii) greater cash-flow rights mitigate the adverse effects of weak shareholder protection laws on bank valuations. These results are consistent with the views that expropriation of minority shareholders is important internationally, that laws can restrain this expropriation, and concentrated cash-flow rights represent an important mechanism for governing banks. Finally, the evidence does not support the view that empowering official supervisory and regulatory agencies will increase the market valuation of banks.

Effects of object shape and visual feedback on hand configuration during grasping.

Abstract: Normal subjects gradually preshape their hands during a grasping movement in order to conform the hand to the shape of a target object. The evolution of hand preshaping may depend on visual feedback about arm and hand position as well as on target shape and location at specific times during the movement. The present study manipulated object shape in order to produce differentiable patterns of finger placement along two orthogonal "dimensions" (flexion/extension and abduction/adduction), and manipulated the amount of available visual information during a grasp. Normal subjects were asked to reach to and grasp a set of objects presented in a randomized fashion at a fixed spatial location in three visual feedback conditions: Full Vision (both hand and target visible), Object Vision (only the object was visible but not the hand) and No Vision (vision of neither the hand nor the object during the movement). Flexion/extension angles of the metacarpophalangeal and proximal interphalangeal joints of the index, ring, middle and pinkie fingers as well as the abduction/adduction angles between the index-middle and middle-ring fingers were recorded. Kinematic analysis revealed that as visual feedback was reduced, movement duration increased and time to peak aperture of the hand decreased, in accord with previously reported studies. Analysis of the patterns of joint flexion/extension and abduction/adduction per object shape revealed that preshaping based on the abduction/adduction dimension occurred early during the reach for all visual feedback conditions (approximately 45% of normalized movement time). This early preshaping across visual feedback conditions suggests the existence of mechanisms involved in the selection of basic hand configurations. Furthermore, while configuration changes in the flexion/extension dimension resulting in well-defined hand configurations occurred earlier during the movement in the Object Vision and No Vision conditions (45%), those in the Full Vision condition were observed only after 75% of the movement, as the moving hand entered the central region of the visual field. The data indicate that there are at least two control mechanisms at work during hand preshaping, an early predictive phase during which grip selection is attained regardless of availability of visual feedback and a late responsive phase during which subjects may use visual feedback to optimize their grasp.

Macroeconomics in Emerging Markets

Abstract: Part I. Overview: 1. Macroeconomics and development Part II. A Benchmark Macroeconomic Model for an Emerging Economy: 2. Equilibrium in the domestic labor and goods markets 3. Equilibrium in the financial markets 4. Short-run macroeconomic equilibrium 5. Medium-term macroeconomic equilibrium Part III. Public Finance and Macroeconomic Performance: 6. The intertemporal budget constraint of the public sector 7. Consequences of insolvency I: high inflation 8. Consequences of insolvency II: public sector debt and economic growth 9. Measures for achieving fiscal credibility I: central bank independence 10. Measures for achieving fiscal credibility II: privatization Part IV. The Financial Sector and Macroeconomic Performance: 11. Finance, welfare, and growth 12. Financial repression 13. Financial reform, public policy, and financial crises 14. Financial openness and the sequencing of financial reform 15. Coping with capital inflows Part V. Exchange Rate Management: 16. Equilibrium real exchange rates: 17. Exchange rate regimes 18. Managing an officially-determined rate 19. Banking crises and exchange rate crises 20. Domestic macroeconomic management in emerging economies: lessons from the crises of the nineties.

Children's Appraisal of Peer Rejection Experiences: Impact on Social and Emotional Adjustment

Abstract: In the current study, 95 children of different social status classifications (rejected, neglected, average, and popular) were exposed to hypothetical vignettes designed to assess their ‘generalized’ rejection sensitivity (GRS) and a mild social rejection experience designed to assess their ‘on-line’ rejection sensitivity (ORS). Measures of internalizing and externalizing problems were assessed through a composite of peer- , parent- , and self-reports. As expected, sociometric rejection was associated with more internalizing and externalizing problems. More importantly, both types of rejection sensitivity were associated with internalizing and externalizing problems after controlling for the effect of peer rejection. High levels of GRS were associated with more internalizing problems for both boys and girls. In addition, rejection sensitivity emerged as a significant moderator of the relation between rejection and externalizing problems. The nature of the moderating effect varied as function of type of rejection sensitivity and gender. Rejected girls with low GRS and rejected boys with high ORS displayed the highest levels of externalizing behavior problems.

The recent expansion of Pluto's atmosphere

Abstract: Stellar occultations—the passing of a relatively nearby body in front of a background star—can be used to probe the atmosphere of the closer body with a spatial resolution of a few kilometres (ref. 1). Such observations can yield the scale height, temperature profile, and other information about the structure of the occulting atmosphere. Occultation data acquired for Pluto's atmosphere in 1988 revealed a nearly isothermal atmosphere2 above a radius of ∼1,215 km. Below this level, the data could be interpreted as indicating either an extinction layer or the onset of a large thermal gradient, calling into question the fundamental structure of this atmosphere. Another question is to what extent Pluto's atmosphere might be collapsing as it recedes from the Sun (passing perihelion in 1989 in its 248-year orbital period), owing to the extreme sensitivity of the equilibrium surface pressure to the surface temperature. Here we report observations at a variety of visible and infrared wavelengths of an occultation of a star by Pluto in August 2002. These data reveal evidence for extinction in Pluto's atmosphere and show that it has indeed changed, having expanded rather than collapsed, since 1988.

Community assembly and historical biogeography in the North Atlantic Ocean: the potential role of human-mediated dispersal vectors

Abstract: Historical and modern migrations and dispersal of most marine organisms (intertidal, benthic, meiofaunal, planktonic, nektonic, or neustonic) are classically interpreted in terms of their natural dispersal potential. Exceptions are introduced species, largely recognized since the 19th century, known to have been transported by human activities. However, humans were transporting species along coastlines and across oceans for millennia and centuries prior to the advent of the first biological surveys. Thus, the presumptive natural distributions of many species may be questioned. Reviewed here are some basic concepts about invasions of non-native species. Human activities move species isolated in time and space from other oceans or continents, and thus human-mediated transport does not simply speed up natural dispersal processes. Both past and modern-day invasions are often overlooked, leading to an underestimation of the scale of invasion diversity and impact. Because vectors, donor regions, and recipient regions change over time, invasions will continue along long-standing but un-managed corridors. The impact of most invasions has never been studied and, therefore, it is not possible to conclude that most invasions have no impact, nor is it generally possible to say that invasions have become ‘integrated’ into a community or ecosystem in ecological time. Finally, invasions in the ocean are not limited to harbours and ports, but are found in a wide variety of marine habitats, ranging from the open ocean continental shelf to exposed rocky shores. The existence of human-mediated vectors has created extraordinary challenges to our understanding and interpretation of the ecology, biogeography, evolutionary biology, and conservation biology of marine communities.

Post-crisis exchange rate policy in five Asian countries: Filling in the “hollow middle”?

Abstract: Following the 1997–1998 financial turmoil, crisis countries in Asia moved away from exchange rate arrangements featuring “soft” exchange rate pegs with open capital accounts. While this development is superficially consistent with the bipolar view of exchange rate regimes and the “hollow middle” hypothesis, some observers have claimed that, despite the changes in their de jure exchange rate regimes, the crisis countries' exchange rate policies have in fact been very similar in the post- and pre-crisis periods. This paper analyzes the evidence and concludes that, except for Malaysia, which adopted an official peg buttressed by capital controls, the other crisis countries have actually moved to intermediate regimes in which they are floating more than before, though less than “real” floaters do. The intermediate exchange rate policies pursued by most of the crisis countries during the post-crisis can be justified on second-best arguments.

Sociometric Status and Children's Peer Experiences: Use of the Daily Diary Method

Abstract: Elementary school children completed a daily diary indicating specific peer encounters that had occurred that day at school and participated in sociometric surveys. Diary items assessed three categories of negative peer encounters (physical victimization, social victimization, exclusion) and two categories of positive encounters (positive interactions, participation in activities). Psychometric analyses supported the distinction of these categories. Children's reports of negative peer experiences were associated with their reputations as assessed by sociometric nominations (i.e., low social preference, aggression, withdrawal, and low leadership). Children who were poorly liked or viewed as exhibiting undesirable characteristics encountered more peer mistreatment, while children who were well liked or viewed as exhibiting positive characteristics encountered less. Children's reports of positive encounters were not associated with their social reputations. Consistent with the premise that aggressive-rejected children experience a "kinder" social context than their less aggressive counterparts, aggressive-rejected boys reported fewer instances of negative treatment than withdrawn-rejected boys.

Observational Constraints on Disk Heating as a Function of Hubble Type

Abstract: Current understanding of the secular evolution of galactic disks suggests that this process is dominated by two or more "heating" mechanisms, which increase the random motions of stars in the disk. In particular, the gravitational influence of giant molecular clouds and irregularities in the spiral potential have been proposed to explain the observed velocity dispersions in the solar neighborhood. Each of these mechanisms acts on different components of the stellar velocity, which affects the ratio σz/σR of the vertical and radial components differently. Since the relative strengths of giant molecular clouds and spiral irregularities vary with Hubble type, a study of σz/σR as function of Hubble type has the potential to provide strong constraints on disk heating mechanisms. We present major- and minor-axis stellar kinematics for four spiral galaxies of Hubble type from Sa to Sbc and use the data to infer the ratios σz/σR in the galaxy disks. We combine the results with those for two galaxies studied previously with the same technique, with Milky Way data, and with estimates obtained using photometric techniques. The results show that σz/σR is generally in the range 0.5–0.8. There is a marginally significant trend of decreasing σz/σR with advancing Hubble type, consistent with the predictions of disk heating theories. However, the errors on individual measurements are large, and the absence of any trend is consistent with the data at the 1 σ level. As a by-product of our study, we find that three of the four galaxies in our sample have a central drop in their stellar line-of-sight velocity dispersion, a phenomenon that is increasingly observed in spiral galaxies.

Neonatal social isolation alters both maternal and pup behaviors in rats.

Abstract: The development of emotional behavior is dependent on the early experiences of the infant and the quality of maternal care. In these experiments, the effects of social isolation during the preweaning period on both pup behavior and maternal responsivity were examined. In the first study, the number of ultrasonic vocalizations (USVs) emitted after brief maternal separation was measured in neonatal rats with differing histories of social isolation. The social isolation procedure consisted of 5 days of daily separation from the dam and littermates for either 3 or 6 hr. At both ages tested, socially isolated pups vocalized significantly less than control pups. In the second study, the effects of prior isolation either daily for 5 previous days (Chronic Isolation) or for 4 hr prior to testing (Acute Isolation) were examined in a T-maze choice test. Pup vocalizations in the presence of the dam and dams' maternal behavior were assessed. When the dam was confined to the start box or during the maternal free access period, both Chronic and Acute Isolates vocalized less than pups that had never left the home nest. Dams spent more time with and licked and groomed more frequently and for a longer time both Chronic and Acute Isolates compared to pups that had always been with dams in the home nest. These results suggest that early isolation experience can alter subsequent responses to separation stress in neonatal rats and that maternal behavior is sensitive to the prior experiences of offspring.

Concave utility, transaction costs, and risk in measuring discounting of delayed rewards.

Abstract: Research has consistently found that the decline in the present values of delayed rewards as delay increases is better fit by hyperbolic than by exponential delay-discounting functions. However, concave utility, transaction costs, and risk each could produce hyperbolic-looking data, even when the underlying discounting function is exponential. In Experiments 1 (N = 45) and 2 (N = 103), participants placed bids indicating their present values of real future monetary rewards in computer-based 2nd-price auctions. Both experiments suggest that utility is not sufficiently concave to account for the superior fit of hyperbolic functions. Experiment 2 provided no evidence that the effects of transaction costs and risk are large enough to account for the superior fit of hyperbolic functions.

PolyTOIL: A type-safe polymorphic object-oriented language

Abstract: PolyTOIL is a new statically typed polymorphic object-oriented programming language that is provably typesafe. By separating the definitions of subtyping and inheritance, providing a name for the type of self, and carefully defining the type-checking rules, we have obtained a language that is very expressive while supporting modular type-checking of classes. The matching relation on types, which is related to F-bounded quantification, is used both in stating type-checking rules and expressing the bounds on type parameters for polymorphism. The design of PolyTOIL is based on a careful formal definition of type-checking rules and semantics. A proof of type safety is obtained with the aid of a subject reduction theorem.

Coccolith Sr/Ca records of productivity during the Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum from the Weddell Sea

Abstract: [1] A major perturbation of the global carbon cycle ∼55 million years ago, believed to result from release of 1000–2000 Gt of C from methane hydrates, correlates with an intense but transient greenhouse warming event known as the Paleocene Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM). The rapid (105 years) recovery of global temperatures reflects important negative feedbacks in the climate system and carbon cycle. Enhanced marine productivity may be one important feedback, but indicators for productivity changes have yielded conflicting results. Here we use a new independent indicator, Sr/Ca in coccolith carbonate, which covaries with the productivity of coccolithophorid algae, to investigate the biotic response in the most complete PETM deep sea record which was recovered at ODP Site 690 in the Weddell Sea. In the dominant coccolithophorid genus Toweius a large (40%) Sr/Ca increase immediately after the gas hydrate release signals a dramatic productivity increase. Productivity levels remained high for 60,000 years but decreased to pre-event levels by 120,000 years after the gas hydrate release. Productivity levels during the PETM are higher than observed at any other time in our ∼400,000 year record. Other coccolithophorid genera Chiasmolithus and Discoaster show a brief modest (25% Sr/Ca increase) increase in productivity that lags behind the methane event by 50,000 years and is within the range of productivity variation elsewhere in the record. The timing of the Toweius productivity increase agrees well with Os isotope records of globally increased weathering intensity, which may have provided higher nutrient fluxes to stimulate algal productivity. If this type of productivity response occurred globally, it would also be consistent with the timing of C drawdown that may have returned temperatures to near pre-event levels.

A Type System for the Java Bytecode Language and Verifier

Abstract: The Java Virtual Machine executes bytecode programs that may have been sent from other, possibly untrusted, locations on the network. Since the transmitted code may be written by a malicious party or corrupted during network transmission, the Java Virtual Machine contains a bytecode verifier to check the code for type errors before it is run. As illustrated by reported attacks on Java run-time systems, the verifier is essential for system security. However, no formal specification of the bytecode verifier exists in the Java Virtual Machine Specification published by Sun. In this paper, we develop such a specification in the form of a type system for a subset of the bytecode language. The subset includes classes, interfaces, constructors, methods, exceptions, and bytecode subroutines. We also present a type checking algorithm and prototype bytecode verifier implementation, and we conclude by discussing other applications of this work. For example, we show how to extend our formal system to check other program properties, such as the correct use of object locks.

Prototype and exemplar accounts of category learning and attentional allocation: a reassessment.

Abstract: In a recent article. J. P. Minda and J. D. Smith (2002; see record 2002-00620-002) argued that an exemplar model provided worse quantitative fits than an alternative prototype model to individual subject data from the classic D. L. Medin and M. M. Schaffer (1978) 5/4 categorization paradigm. In addition, they argued that the exemplar model achieved its fits by making untenable assumptions regarding how observers distribute their attention. In this article, we demonstrate that when the models are equated in terms of their response-rule flexibility, the exemplar model provides a substantially better account of the categorization data than does a prototype or mixed model. In addition, we point to shortcomings in the attention-allocation analyses conducted by J. P. Minda and J. D. Smith (2002). When these shortcomings are corrected, we find no evidence that challenges the attention-allocation assumptions of the exemplar model.

Hubble Space Telescope observations of globular cluster systems along the Hubble sequence of spiral galaxies

Abstract: We have studied the globular cluster systems of seven giant, edge-on spiral galaxies using Hubble Space Telescope imaging in V and I. The galaxy sample covers the Hubble types Sa to Sc, allowing us to study the variation of the properties of globular cluster systems along the Hubble sequence. The photometry reaches ∼1.5 mag beyond the turn-over magnitude of the globular cluster luminosity function for each galaxy. Specific frequencies of globular clusters (SN values) were evaluated by comparing the numbers of globular clusters found in our WFPC2 pointings with those in our Milky Way that would be detected in the same spatial region if placed at the distance of the target galaxies. Results from this method were found to be consistent with the more commonly used method of constructing radial distribution functions of globular clusters. The SN values of spirals with B/T≲ 0.3 (i.e. spirals with a Hubble type later than about Sb) are consistent with a value of SN= 0.55 ± 0.25. We suggest that this population of globular clusters represents a ‘universal’, old halo population that is present around each galaxy. Most galaxies in our sample have SN values that are consistent with a scenario in which globular cluster systems are made up of (i) the aforementioned halo population plus (ii) a population that is associated with bulges, which grows approximately linearly with the mass of the bulge. Such scenarios include the ‘merger scenario’ for the formation of elliptical galaxies as well as the ‘multi-phase collapse’ scenario, but it seems inconsistent with the ‘secular evolution’ scenario of Pfenniger & Norman, in which bulges are formed from disc stars by means of the redistribution of angular momentum through bar instabilities and/or minor perturbations. However, there is one bulge-dominated spiral galaxy in our sample (NGC 7814) with a low SN value that is consistent with those of the latest-type spirals. This means that the ‘secular evolution’ scenario can still be viable for some bulge-dominated spirals. Thus, our results suggest that the formation histories of galaxy bulges of early-type spirals can be significantly different from one galaxy to another.

A hybrid-similarity exemplar model for predicting distinctiveness effects in perceptual old-new recognition.

Abstract: In 2 sets of experiments, the authors investigated the basis for old-item distinctiveness effects in perceptual recognition, whereby distinctive old items are recognized with higher probability than are typical old items. In Experiment 1, distinctive old items were defined as those lying in isolated regions of a continuous-dimension similarity space. In this case, any beneficial effects of distinctiveness were absent or small, regardless of the structure of the test list used to assess recognition memory. In Experiment 2, distinctive items were defined as those objects containing certain discrete, individuating features. In this case, large old-item distinctive effects were observed, with the nature of the effects being modulated by the structure of the test lists. A hybrid-similarity exemplar model, combining elements of continuous-dimension distance and discrete-feature matching, was used to account for these distinctiveness effects in the recognition data.

Individualized measurement of irrational beliefs in remitted depressives.

Abstract: Recent reviews of cognitive theories of depression have noted that individualized assessment strategies might help to resolve mixed findings regarding the stability of depressotypic beliefs and attitudes. We describe encouraging results for an individualized measure of one such cognitive construct, irrational beliefs. Twenty depression-prone women (recurrent major depressives in full remission) and twenty closely matched never-depressed controls completed leading forced-choice measures of irrational beliefs (the Belief Scale; BS) and sociotropy-autonomy (The Revised Personal Style Inventory), as well as the Specific Demands on Self Scale (SDS). The BS requires participants to rate their agreement with twenty preselected statements of irrational beliefs, while the SDS focuses on whether participants harbor any strongly held irrational beliefs, even if uncommon or idiosyncratic. Consistent with previous research, there were no group differences on the traditional measure of irrational beliefs. In contrast, depression-prone participants strongly exceeded controls on the SDS, and this difference persisted after controlling for residual depression, anxiety symptoms, anxiety diagnoses, sociotropy, and autonomy. These findings provide some initial support for a key assumption of the rational-emotive model of depression, and, more broadly, suggest that individualized assessment strategies may help researchers capture the core negative beliefs of asymptomatic individuals, even in the absence of mood or cognitive priming.