Showing papers in "Global Change Biology in 2000"

Soil carbon sequestration and land‐use change: processes and potential

Abstract: SUMMARY When agricultural land is no longer used for cultivation and allowed to revert to natural vegetation or replanted to perennial vegetation, soil organic carbon can accumulate by processes that essentially reverse some of the effects responsible for soil organic carbon losses from when the land was converted from perennial vegetation. We discuss the essential elements of what is known about soil organic matter dynamics that may result in enhanced soil carbon sequestration with changes in land-use and soil management. We review literature that reports changes in soil organic carbon after changes in land-use that favor carbon accumulation. This data summary provides a guide to approximate rates of SOC sequestration that are possible with management, and indicates the relative importance of some factors that influence the rates of organic carbon sequestration in soil. There is a large amount of variation in rates and the length of time that carbon may accumulate in soil that are related to the productivity of the recovering vegetation, physical and biological conditions in the soil, and the past history of soil organic carbon inputs and physical disturbance. Maximum rates of C accumulation during the early aggrading stage of perennial vegetation growth, while substantial, are usually much less than 100 g C m y . Average rates of accumulation are similar for forest or grassland establishment: 33.8 g C m y and 33.2 g C m y respectively. These observed rates of soil organic C accumulation, when combined with the small amount of land area involved, are insufficient to account for a significant fraction of the missing C in the global carbon cycle as accumulating in the soils of formerly agricultural land.

Long‐term dynamics of pine and hardwood litter in contrasting environments: toward a global model of decomposition

Abstract: We analysed data on mass loss after five years of decomposition in the field from both fine root and leaf litters from two highly contrasting trees, Drypetes glattca, a tropical hardwood tree from Puerto Rico, and pine species from North America as part of the Long-Term lntersite Decomposition Experiment (LIDEn. L1DET is a reciprocal litter­ bag study involving the transplanting of litter from 27 species across 28 sites in North and Central America reflecting a wide variety of natural and managed ecosystems and climates, from Arctic tundra to tropical rainforest. After 5 years, estimated k-values ranged from 0.032 to 3.734, lengths of Phase I (to 20% mass remaining) from 0.49 to 47.92 years, and fractional mass remaining from 0 to 0.81. Pine litter decomposed more slowly than Drypetes litter, supporting the notion of strong control of substrate quality over decomposition rates. Climate exerted strong and consistent effects on decomposi­ tion. Neither mean annual temperature or precipitation alone explained the global pat­ tern of decomposition; variables including both moisture availability and temperature (i.e. actual evapotranspiration and DEFAC from the CENTURY model) were generally more robust than single variables. Across the LIDET range, decomposition of fine roots exhibited a QI0 of 2 and was more predictable than that of leaves, which had a higher QI0 and greater variability. Roots generally decomposed more slowly than leaves, regardless of genus, but the ratio of above- to belowground decomposition rates differed sharply across ecosystem types. Finally, Drypetes litter decomposed much more rapidly than pine litter in 'broad leaved habitats' than in 'conifer habitats', evidence for a 'home-field advantage' for this litter. These results collectively suggest that relatively simple models can predict decomposition based on litter quality and regional climate, but that ecosystem-specific problems may add complications.

Phenology of British butterflies and climate change

Abstract: Summary Data from a national butterfly monitoring scheme were analysed to test for relationships between temperature and three phenological measures, duration of flight period and timing of both first and peak appearance. First appearances of most British butterflies has advanced in the last two decades and is strongly related to earlier peak appearance and, for multibrooded species, longer flight period. Mean dates of first and peak appearance are examined in relation to Manley's central England temperatures, using regression techniques. We predict that, in the absence of confounding factors, such as interactions with other organisms and land-use change, climate warming of the order of 1 °C could advance first and peak appearance of most butterflies by 2–10 days.

Controls over carbon storage and turnover in high-latitude soils

Abstract: Despite the importance of Arctic and boreal regions in the present carbon cycle, estimates of annual high-latitude carbon fluxes vary in sign and magnitude. Without accurate estimates of current carbon fluxes from Arctic and boreal ecosystems, predicting the response of these systems to global change is daunting. A number of factors control carbon turnover in high-latitude soils, but because they are unique to northern systems, they are mostly ignored by biogeochemical models used to predict the response of these systems to global change. Here, we review those factors. First, many northern systems are dominated by mosses, whose extremely slow decomposition is not predicted by commonly used indices of litter quality. Second, cold temperature, permafrost, waterlogging, and substrate quality interact to stabilize soil organic matter, but the relative importance of these factors, and how they respond to climate change, is unknown. Third, recent evidence suggests that biological activity occuring over winter can contribute significantly to annual soil carbon fluxes. However, the controls over this winter activity remain poorly understood. Finally, processes at the landscape scale, such as fire, permafrost dynamics, and drainage, control regional carbon fluxes, complicating the extrapolation of site-level measurements to regional scales.

Arctic and boreal ecosystems of western North America as components of the climate system

Abstract: Synthesis of results from several Arctic and boreal research programmes provides evidence for the strong role of high-latitude ecosystems in the climate system. Average surface air temperature has increased 0.3 degreesC per decade during the twentieth century in the western North American Arctic and boreal forest zones. Precipitation has also increased, but changes in soil moisture are uncertain. Disturbance rates have increased in the boreal forest; for example, there has been a doubling of the area burned in North America in the past 20 years. The disturbance regime in tundra may not have changed. Tundra has a 3-6-fold higher winter albedo than boreal forest, but summer albedo and energy partitioning differ more strongly among ecosystems within either tundra or boreal forest than between these two biomes. This indicates a need to improve our understanding of vegetation dynamics within, as well as between, biomes. If regional surface warming were to continue, changes in albedo and energy absorption would likely act as a positive feedback to regional warming due to earlier melting of snow and, over the long term, the northward movement of treeline. Surface drying and a change in dominance from mosses to vascular plants would also enhance sensible heat flux and regional warming in tundra. In the boreal forest of western North America, deciduous forests have twice the albedo of conifer forests in both winter and summer, 50-80% higher evapotranspiration, and therefore only 30-50% of the sensible heat flux of conifers in summer. Therefore, a warming-induced increase in fire frequency that increased the proportion of deciduous forests in the landscape, would act as a negative feedback to regional warming. Changes in thermokarst and the aerial extent of wetlands, lakes, and ponds would alter high-latitude methane flux. There is currently a wide discrepancy among estimates of the size and direction of CO2 flux between high-latitude ecosystems and the atmosphere. These discrepancies relate more strongly to the approach and assumptions for extrapolation than to inconsistencies in the underlying data. Inverse modelling from atmospheric CO2 concentrations suggests that high latitudes are neutral or net sinks for atmospheric CO2, whereas field measurements suggest that high latitudes are neutral or a net CO2 source. Both approaches rely on assumptions that are difficult to verify. The most parsimonious explanation of the available data is that drying in tundra and disturbance in boreal forest enhance CO2 efflux. Nevertheless, many areas of both tundra and boreal forests remain net sinks due to regional variation in climate and local variation in topographically determined soil moisture. Improved understanding of the role of high-latitude ecosystems in the climate system requires a concerted research effort that focuses on geographical variation in the processes controlling land-atmosphere exchange, species composition, and ecosystem structure. Future studies must be conducted over a long enough time-period to detect and quantify ecosystem feedbacks.

A proposed CO2‐controlled mechanism of woody plant invasion in grasslands and savannas

Abstract: Summary We propose that elevated CO2 may have a significant positive effect on woody plant success and thus favour tree invasion and thickening in grass-dominated ecosystems. We note that savanna tree biomass is strongly constrained by disturbance, particularly fire, and that elevated CO2 could act to reduce this constraint. Our argument combines knowledge of tree recovery from injury after grassland fires, with theory about carbon acquisition and carbohydrate storage patterns in C3 woody plants in response to elevated CO2. We propose simply that elevated CO2 will tend to favour regrowth of juvenile trees trapped (sometimes for decades) in the ‘topkill’ zone, thus allowing them to escape more readily from periodic fires as CO2 continues to rise. Little empirical evidence exists to test this hypothesis, even though the process may have important implications for tree/grass codominated ecosystems currently in a dynamic equilibrium.

Particulate pollution capture by urban trees: effect of species and windspeed.

Abstract: Particulate pollution is a serious health problem throughout the world, exacerbating a wide range of respiratory and vascular illnesses in urban areas. The use of trees to reduce the effects of these pollutants has been addressed in the literature, but has rarely been quantified. The aim of the present study was to quantify the effectiveness of five tree species ? pine (Pinus nigra var. maritima), cypress ( × Cupressocyparis leylandii), maple (Acer campestre), whitebeam (Sorbus intermedia), poplar (Populus deltoides × trichocarpa'Beaupre') ? in capturing pollutant particles. This was achieved by exposing them to NaCl droplets of approximately 1 ?m diameter at a range of windspeeds in two windtunnels. The deposition velocity (Vg) and particle trapping efficiency (Cp) were calculated from these exposures. In addition, a variable dependent on foliage structure [Stokes number (St)] was correlated with Cp to gauge the effect of tree morphology on particle capture. Maximum Cp values ranged from 2.8% for P. nigra, to 0.12% and 0.06% for P. trichocarpa×deltoides and A. campertre, respectively. The finer, more complex structure of the foliage of the two conifers (P. nigra and C. leylandii) explained their much greater effectiveness at capturing particles. The data presented here will be used to model the effectiveness of tree planting schemes in improving urban air quality by capturing pollutant particles.

Oxidation of atmospheric methane in Northern European soils, comparison with other ecosystems, and uncertainties in the global terrestrial sink

Abstract: This paper reports the range and statistical distribution of oxidation rates of atmospheric CH4 in soils found in Northern Europe in an international study, and compares them with published data for various other ecosystems. It reassesses the size, and the uncertainty in, the global terrestrial CH4 sink, and examines the effect of land-use change and other factors on the oxidation rate. Only soils with a very high water table were sources of CH4; all others were sinks. Oxidation rates varied from 1 to nearly 200 μg CH4 m−2 h−1; annual rates for sites measured for ≥1 y were 0.1–9.1 kg CH4 ha−1 y−1, with a log-normal distribution (log-mean ≈ 1.6 kg CH4 ha−1 y−1). Conversion of natural soils to agriculture reduced oxidation rates by two-thirds –- closely similar to results reported for other regions. N inputs also decreased oxidation rates. Full recovery of rates after these disturbances takes > 100 y. Soil bulk density, water content and gas diffusivity had major impacts on oxidation rates. Trends were similar to those derived from other published work. Increasing acidity reduced oxidation, partially but not wholly explained by poor diffusion through litter layers which did not themselves contribute to the oxidation. The effect of temperature was small, attributed to substrate limitation and low atmospheric concentration. Analysis of all available data for CH4 oxidation rates in situ showed similar log-normal distributions to those obtained for our results, with generally little difference between different natural ecosystems, or between short-and longer-term studies. The overall global terrestrial sink was estimated at 29 Tg CH4 y−1, close to the current IPCC assessment, but with a much wider uncertainty range (7 to > 100 Tg CH4 y−1). Little or no information is available for many major ecosystems; these should receive high priority in future research.

The role of fire in the boreal carbon budget.

Abstract: To reconcile observations of decomposition rates, carbon inventories, and net primary production (NPP), we estimated long-term averages for C exchange in boreal forests near Thompson, Manitoba. Soil drainage as defined by water table, moss cover, and permafrost dynamics, is the dominant control on direct fire emissions. In upland forests, an average of about 10-30% of annual NPP was likely consumed by fire over the past 6500 years since these landforms and ecosystems were established. This long-term, average fire emission is much larger than has been accounted for in global C cycle models and may forecast an increase in fire activity for this region. While over decadal to century times these boreal forests may be acting as slight net sinks for C from the atmosphere to land, periods of drought and severe fire activity may result in net sources of C from these systems.

Meeting Europe's climate change commitments: quantitative estimates of the potential for carbon mitigation by agriculture

Abstract: Summary Under the Kyoto Protocol, the European Union is committed to a reduction in CO2 emissions to 92% of baseline (1990) levels during the first commitment period (2008–2012). The Kyoto Protocol allows carbon emissions to be offset by demonstrable removal of carbon from the atmosphere. Thus, land-use/land-management change and forestry activities that are shown to reduce atmospheric CO2 levels can be included in the Kyoto targets. These activities include afforestation, reforestation and deforestation (article 3.3 of the Kyoto Protocol) and the improved management of agricultural soils (article 3.4). In this paper, we estimate the carbon mitigation potential of various agricultural land-management strategies and examine the consequences of European policy options on carbon mitigation potential, by examining combinations of changes in agricultural land-use/land-management. We show that no single land-management change in isolation can mitigate all of the carbon needed to meet Europe's climate change commitments, but integrated combinations of land-management strategies show considerable potential for carbon mitigation. Three of the combined scenarios, one of which is an optimal realistic scenario, are by themselves able to meet Europe's emission limitation or reduction commitments. Through combined land-management scenarios, we show that the most important resource for carbon mitigation in agriculture is the surplus arable land. We conclude that in order to fully exploit the potential of arable land for carbon mitigation, policies will need to be implemented to allow surplus arable land to be put into alternative long-term land-use. Of all options examined, bioenergy crops show the greatest potential for carbon mitigation. Bioenergy crop production also shows an indefinite mitigation potential compared to other options where the mitigation potential is finite. We suggest that in order to exploit fully the bioenergy option, the infrastructure for bioenergy production needs to be significantly enhanced before the beginning of the first Kyoto commitment period in 2008. It is not expected that Europe will attempt to meet its climate change commitments solely through changes in agricultural land-use. A reduction in CO2-carbon emissions will be key to meeting Europe's Kyoto targets, and forestry activities (Kyoto Article 3.3) will play a major role. In this study, however, we demonstrate the considerable potential of changes in agricultural land-use and -management (Kyoto Article 3.4) for carbon mitigation and highlight the policies needed to promote these agricultural activities. As all sources of carbon mitigation will be important in meeting Europe's climate change commitments, agricultural carbon mitigation options should be taken very seriously.

Land-atmosphere energy exchange in Arctic tundra and boreal forest: available data and feedbacks to climate.

Abstract: This paper summarizes and analyses available data on the surface energy balance of Arctic tundra and boreal forest. The complex interactions between ecosystems and their surface energy balance are also examined, including climatically induced shifts in ecosystem type that might amplify or reduce the effects of potential climatic change. High latitudes are characterized by large annual changes in solar input. Albedo decreases strongly from winter, when the surface is snow-covered, to summer, especially in nonforested regions such as Arctic tundra and boreal wetlands. Evapotranspiration (QE) of high-latitude ecosystems is less than from a freely evaporating surface and decreases late in the season, when soil moisture declines, indicating stomatal control over QE, particularly in evergreen forests. Evergreen conifer forests have a canopy conductance half that of deciduous forests and consequently lower QE and higher sensible heat flux (QH). There is a broad overlap in energy partitioning between Arctic and boreal ecosystems, although Arctic ecosystems and light taiga generally have higher ground heat flux because there is less leaf and stem area to shade the ground surface, and the thermal gradient from the surface to permafrost is steeper. Permafrost creates a strong heat sink in summer that reduces surface temperature and therefore heat flux to the atmosphere. Loss of permafrost would therefore amplify climatic warming. If warming caused an increase in productivity and leaf area, or fire caused a shift from evergreen to deciduous forest, this would increase QE and reduce QH. Potential future shifts in vegetation would have varying climate feedbacks, with largest effects caused by shifts from boreal conifer to shrubland or deciduous forest (or vice versa) and from Arctic coastal to wet tundra. An increase of logging activity in the boreal forests appears to reduce QE by roughly 50% with little change in QH, while the ground heat flux is strongly enhanced.

Climate and vegetation controls on boreal zone energy exchange

Abstract: The boreal forest, one of the world’s larger biomes, is distinct from other biomes because it experiences a short growing season and extremely cold winter temperatures. Despite its size and impact on the earth’s climate system, measurements of mass and energy exchange have been rare until the past five years. This paper overviews results of recent and comprehensive field studies conducted in Canada, Siberia and Scandinavia on energy exchanges between boreal forests and the atmosphere. How the boreal biosphere and atmosphere interact to affect the interception of solar energy and how solar energy is used to evaporate water and heat the air and soil is examined in detail. Specifically, we analyse the magnitudes, temporal and spatial patterns and controls of solar energy, moisture and sensible heat fluxes across the land‐ atmosphere interface. We interpret and synthesize field data with the aid of a soil‐ vegetation‐atmosphere transfer model, which considers the coupling of the energy and carbon fluxes and nutrient status. Low precipitation and low temperatures limit growth of many boreal forests. These factors restrict photosynthetic capacity and lower root hydraulic conductivity and stomatal conductance of the inhabitant forests. In such circumstances, these factors interact to form a canopy that has a low leaf area index and exerts a significant resistance to evaporation. Conifer forests, growing on upland soils, for example, evaporate at rates between 25 and 75% of equilibrium evaporation and lose less than 2.5 mm day ‐1 of water. The open nature of many boreal conifer forest stands causes a disproportionate amount of energy exchange to occur at the soil surface. The climatic and physiological factors that yield relatively low rates of evaporation over conifer stands also cause high rates of sensible heat exchange and the diurnal development of deep planetary boundary layers. In contrast, evaporation from broad-leaved aspen stands and fen/wetlands approach equilibrium evaporation rates and lose up to 6 mm day ‐1 .

A global prognostic scheme of leaf onset using satellite data

Abstract: Summary Leaf phenology describes the seasonal cycle of leaf functioning. Although it is essential for understanding the interactions between the biosphere, the climate, and biogeochemical cycles, it has received little attention in the modelling community at global scale. This article focuses on the prediction of spatial patterns of the climatological onset date of leaf growth for the decade 1983–93. It examines the possibility of extrapolating existing local models of leaf onset date to the global scale. Climate is the main variable that controls leaf phenology for a given biome at this scale, and satellite observations provide a unique means to study the seasonal cycle of canopies. We combine leaf onset dates retrieved from NOAA/AVHRR satellite NDVI with climate data and the DISCover land-cover map to identify appropriate models, and determine their new parameters at a 0.5° spatial resolution. We define two main regions: at temperate and high latitudes leaf onset models are mainly dependent on temperature; at low latitudes they are controlled by water availability. Some local leaf onset models are no longer relevant at the global scale making their calibration impossible. Nevertheless, we define our unified model by retaining the model that best reproduced the spatial distribution of leaf onset dates for each biome. The main spatial patterns of leaf onset date are well simulated, such as the Sahelian gradient due to aridity and the high latitude gradient due to frost. At temperate and high latitudes, simulated onset dates are in good agreement with climatological observations; 62% of treated grid-cells have a simulated leaf onset date within 10 days of the satellite observed onset date (which is also the temporal resolution of the NDVI data). In tropical areas, the subgrid heterogeneity of the phenology is larger and our model's predictive power is diminished. The difficulties encountered in the tropics are due to the ambiguity of the satellite signal interpretation and the low reliability of rainfall and soil moisture fields.

Soil CO2 efflux measurements in a mixed forest: impact of chamber disturbances, spatial variability and seasonal evolution

Abstract: Summary A closed-dynamic-chamber system (CDCS) was used to measure the spatial and seasonal variability of the soil CO2 efflux (Fs) in beech and in Douglas fir patches of the Vielsalm forest (Belgium). First the difference between natural and measured soil CO2 efflux induced by the presence of the CDCS was studied. The impact on the measurements of the pressure difference between the outside (natural condition) and the inside of the chamber was found to be small (0.4%). The influence of wind disturbance in the closed chamber was tested by comparison with an open-chamber system characterized by a different wind distribution. A very good correlation between the two systems was found (r2 = 0.99) but the open system yielded slightly lower fluxes than the closed one (slope = 0.88 ± 0.05). A measurement procedure has been developed to minimize the effect of the other sources of perturbation. The spatial and seasonal evolution of the soil CO2 efflux was obtained by performing regular measurements on 29 spots in the beech patch over a period of 12 months and on 24 spots in the Douglas fir patch over 8 months. For each spot, the experimental relationship between Fs and soil temperature was compared with the fitted line for an Arrhenius relationship with a soil temperature-dependent activation energy. Soil temperature explains 73% of the seasonal variation for all the data. The spatial average of the soil CO2 efflux at 10 °C (Fs10) in the beech patch is 2.57 ± 0.41 μmol m−2 s−1, approximately twice the average in the Douglas fir patch recorded at 1.42 ± 0.22 μmol m−2 s−1. The litter fall analysis seems to indicate that soil organic matter quality and quantity may be one the reasons for this difference. Finally the annual soil CO2 efflux was calculated for the beech and Douglas fir patches (870 ± 140 and 438 ± 68 gC m−2 y−1, respectively). The beech value would represent 92 ± 15% of the annual ecosystem respiration estimated from the eddy covariance measurements.

Measurements of gross and net ecosystem productivity and water vapour exchange of a Pinus ponderosa ecosystem, and an evaluation of two generalized models

Abstract: Summary Net ecosystem productivity (NEP), net primary productivity (NPP), and water vapour exchange of a mature Pinus ponderosa forest (44°30′ N, 121°37′ W) growing in a region subject to summer drought were investigated along with canopy assimilation and respiratory fluxes. This paper describes seasonal and annual variation in these factors, and the evaluation of two generalized models of carbon and water balance (PnET-II and 3-PG) with a combination of traditional measurements of NPP, respiration and water stress, and eddy covariance measurements of above-and below-canopy CO2 and water vapour exchange. The objective was to evaluate the models using two years of traditional and eddy covariance measurements, and to use the models to help interpret the relative importance of processes controlling carbon and water vapour exchange in a water-limited pine ecosystem throughout the year. PnET-II is a monthly time-step model that is driven by nitrogen availability through foliar N concentration, and 3-PG is a monthly time-step quantum-efficiency model constrained by extreme temperatures, drought, and vapour pressure deficits. Both models require few parameters and have the potential to be applied at the watershed to regional scale. There was 2/3 less rainfall in 1997 than in 1996, providing a challenge to modelling the water balance, and consequently the carbon balance, when driving the models with the two years of climate data, sequentially. Soil fertility was not a key factor in modelling processes at this site because other environmental factors limited photosynthesis and restricted projected leaf area index to ∼1.6. Seasonally, GEP and LE were overestimated in early summer and underestimated through the rest of the year. The model predictions of annual GEP, NEP and water vapour exchange were within 1–39% of flux measurements, with greater disparity in 1997 because soil water never fully recharged. The results suggest that generalized models can provide insights to constraints on productivity on an annual basis, using a minimum of site data.

Natural nitrogen filter fails in polluted raised bogs

Abstract: Summary Raised bogs are among the ecosystems most susceptible to atmospheric nitrogen pollution. Based on global data ranging from pristine to heavily polluted areas, a conceptual model is presented to explain the logistic response of these terrestrial carbon reservoirs to increased airborne nitrogen fluxes.

Biotic Validation of Small Open-top Chambers in a Tundra Ecosystem

Abstract: Summary Small open-top chambers (OTC) are used widely in ecosystem warming experiments. The efficacy of the open-top chamber as an analogue of climatic warming is examined. Twenty-four small OTCs were used to passively warm canopy temperatures in wet meadow tundra at Barrow, Alaska, during two consecutive summers with contrasting surface air-temperatures. Fortuitously, the seasonal average temperature regime within chambers in the colder year (1995) was similar to the controls of the warmer year (1996); this allowed a comparison of natural vs. chamber warming. All measured plant responses behaved similarly to both year and treatment 68% of the time. A comparison of the populations of the warmer summer's control with the cooler summer's OTC found no statistical difference in 80% of the response variables measured. A meta-analysis also found no significant difference between the responses of the two populations. These results give empirical biotic validation for the use of the OTC as an analogue of regional climate warming.

Effects of elevated atmospheric CO2 on fine root production and activity in an intact temperate forest ecosystem.

Abstract: Summary We investigated the effects of elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations (ambient + 200 ppm) on fine root production and soil carbon dynamics in a loblolly pine (Pinus taeda) forest subject to free-air CO2 enrichment (FACE) near Durham, NC (USA). Live fine root mass (LFR) showed less seasonal variation than dead fine root mass (DFR), which was correlated with seasonal changes in soil moisture and soil temperature. LFR mass increased significantly (by 86%) in the elevated CO2 treatment, with an increment of 37 g(dry weight) m−2 above the control plots after two years of CO2 fumigation. There was no long-term increment in DFR associated with elevated CO2, but significant seasonal accumulations of DFR mass occurred during the summer of the second year of fumigation. Overall, root net primary production (RNPP) was not significantly different, but annual carbon inputs were 21.7 gC m−2 y−1 (68%) higher in the elevated CO2 treatment compared to controls. Specific root respiration was not altered by the CO2 treatment during most of the year; however, it was significantly higher by 21% and 13% in September 1997 and May 1998, respectively, in elevated CO2. We did not find statistically significant differences in the C/N ratio of the root tissue, root decomposition or phosphatase activity in soil and roots associated with the treatment. Our data show that the early response of a loblolly pine forest ecosystem subject to CO2 enrichment is an increase in its fine root population and a trend towards higher total RNPP after two years of CO2 fumigation.

Hierarchical subdivision of Arctic tundra based on vegetation response to climate, parent material and topography

Abstract: Summary Current land-cover classifications used for global modelling portray Arctic tundra as one or two classes. This is insufficient for analysis of climate–vegetation interactions. This paper presents a simple three-level vegetation-map legend system useful for modelling at global, regional, and landscape scales. At the highest level (global scale: 107−108 km2) the Tundra Zone is divided into four subzones based on vegetation response to temperature along the latitudinal temperature gradient from north to south: (1) Cushion-forb, (2) Prostrate Dwarf-shrub, (3) Erect Dwarf-shrub, and (4) Low Shrub subzones. The boundaries follow a modification of Yurtsev's phytogeographic subzones. Parent material and topography are also major considerations at global, regional, and landscape scales. Soil pH is a key variable for many ecosystem responses, and a division into acidic (pH 5.5 or less) and nonacidic soils is used. A conceptual mesotopographic gradient is used to characterize the influence of soil-moisture and snow regimes. The example legend framework focuses on the Northern Alaska floristic subprovince, and could be expanded to other floristic provinces using local expert knowledge and available literature. Dominant plant functional types within each habitat type within the four subzones are also presented. Modellers could include or ignore different levels of resolution depending on the purpose of the model. The approach resolves conflicts in terminology that have previously been encountered between the Russian, North American, and Fennoscandian approaches to Arctic zonation.

Climate‐driven changes in biomass allocation in pines

Abstract: Summary Future increases in air temperature resulting from human activities may increase the water vapour pressure deficit (VPD) of the atmosphere. Understanding the responses of trees to spatial variation in VPD can strengthen our ability to predict how trees will respond to temporal changes in this important variable. Using published values, we tested the theoretical prediction that conifers decrease their investment in photosynthetic tissue (leaves) relative to water-conducting tissue in the stem (sapwood) as VPD increases. The ratio of leaf/sapwood area (AL/AS) decreased significantly with increasing VPD in Pinus species but not in Abies, Pseudotsuga, Tsuga and Picea, and the average AL/AS was significantly lower for pines than other conifers (pines: 0.17 m2 cm−2; nonpines: 0.44 m2 cm−2). Thus, pines adjusted to increasing aridity by altering above-ground morphology while nonpine conifers did not. The average water potential causing a 50% loss of hydraulic conductivity was −3.28 MPa for pines and −4.52 MPa for nonpine conifers, suggesting that pines are more vulnerable to xylem embolism than other conifers. For Pinus ponderosa the decrease in AL/AS with high VPD increases the capacity to provide water to foliage without escalating the risk of xylem embolism. Low AL/AS and plasticity in this variable may enhance drought tolerance in pines. However, lower AL/AS with increasing VPD and an associated shift in biomass allocation from foliage to stems suggests that pines may expend more photosynthate constructing and supporting structural mass and carry less leaf area as the climate warms.

A global distribution of biodiversity inferred from climatic constraints: results from a process‐based modelling study

Abstract: Summary We investigated the connection between plant species diversity and climate by using a process-based, generic plant model. Different ‘species' were simulated by different values for certain growth-related model parameters. Subsequently, a wide range of values were tested in the framework of a ‘Monte Carlo' simulation for success; that is, the capability of each plant with these parameter combinations to reproduce itself during its lifetime. The range of successful parameter combinations approximated species diversity. This method was applied to a global grid, using daily atmospheric forcing from a climate model simulation. The computed distribution of plant ‘species' diversity compares very well with the observed, global-scale distribution of species diversity, reproducing the majority of ‘hot spot' areas of biodiversity. A sensitivity analysis revealed that the predicted pattern is very robust against changes of fixed model parameters. Analysis of the climatic forcing and of two additional sensitivity simulations demonstrated that the crucial factor leading to this distribution of diversity is the early stage of a plant's life when water availability is highly coupled to the variability in precipitation because in this stage root-zone storage of water is small. We used cluster analysis in order to extract common sets of species parameters, mean plant properties and biogeographic regions (biomes) from the model output. The successful ‘species' cannot be grouped into typical parameter combinations, which define the plant's functioning. However, the mean simulated plant properties, such as lifetime and growth, can be grouped into a few characteristic plant ‘prototypes', ranging from short-lived, fast growing plants, similar to grasses, to long-lived, slow growing plants, similar to trees. The classification of regions with respect to similar combinations of successful ‘species' yields a distribution of biomes similar to the observed distribution. Each biome has typical levels of climatic constraints, expressed for instance by the number of ‘rainy days' and ‘warm days'. The less the number of days favourable for growth, the greater the level of constraints and the less the ‘species' diversity. These results suggest that climate as a fundamental constraint can explain much of the global scale, observed distribution of plant species diversity.

Measuring and modelling seasonal variation of carbon dioxide and water vapour exchange of a Pinus ponderosa forest subject to soil water deficit.

Abstract: Summary We conducted ecosystem carbon and water vapour exchange studies in an old-growth Pinus ponderosa forest in the Pacific North-west region of the United States. The canopy is heterogeneous, with tall multiaged trees and an open, clumped canopy with low leaf area. Carbon assimilation can occur throughout relatively mild winters, although night frosts can temporarily halt the process and physiological factors limit its efficiency. In contrast, carbon assimilation is often limited in the ‘growing season’ by stomatal closure associated with high evaporative demand (D) and soil water deficits. All of these factors present a challenge to effectively modelling ecosystem processes. Our objective was to generate an understanding of the controls on ecosystem processes across seasonal and annual cycles from a combination of fine-scale process modelling, ecophysiological measurements, and carbon and water vapour fluxes measured by the eddy covariance method. Flux measurements showed that 50% and 70% of the annual carbon uptake occurred outside the ‘growing season’ (defined as bud break to senescence, ∼ days 125–275) in 1996 and 1997. On a daily basis in summer, net ecosystem productivity (NEP) was low when D and soil water deficits were large. Whole ecosystem water vapour fluxes (LE) increased from spring to summer (1.0–1.9 mm d−1) as conducting leaf area increased by 30% and as evaporative demand increased, while evaporation from the soil surface became a smaller portion of total LE as soil water deficits increased. The models underestimated soil evaporation, particularly following rain. In the SPA model, varying the temperature optimum for photosynthesis seasonally resulted in overestimation of carbon uptake in winter and spring, showing that in coniferous forests, assumptions about temperature optima are clearly important. Daily estimates of soil surface CO2 flux from measurements and site meteorological data demonstrated that modelling of soil CO2 flux based on an Arrhenius-type equation in CANPOND overestimated CO2 respired from the soil during drought and when temperatures were low.

The North Atlantic Oscillation and plankton dynamics in two European lakes –‐ two variations on a general theme

Abstract: Summary Long-term data on water temperature, phytoplankton biovolume, Bosmina and Daphnia abundance and the timing of the clear-water phase were compared and analysed with respect to the influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in two strongly contrasting lakes in central Europe. In small, shallow, hypertrophic Muggelsee, spring water temperatures and Daphnia abundance both increased more rapidly than in large, deep, meso/oligotrophic Lake Constance. Because of this, the clear-water phase commenced approximately three weeks earlier in Muggelsee than in Lake Constance. In Muggelsee, the phytoplankton biovolume during late winter/early spring was related to the NAO index. In Lake Constance, where phytoplankton growth was inhibited by intense downward mixing during all years studied, this was not the case. However, in both lakes, interannual variability in water temperature, in Daphnia spring population dynamics and in the timing of the clear-water phase, were all related to the interannual variability of the NAO index. The Daphnia spring population dynamics and the timing of the clear-water phase appear to be synchronized by the NAO despite large differences between the lakes in morphometry, trophic status and flushing and mixis regimes, and despite the great distance between the lakes (∼700 km). This suggests that a great variety of lakes in central Europe may possibly have exhibited similar interannual variability during the last 20 years.

Simulating the effects of climate change on the carbon balance of North American high‐latitude forests

Abstract: Summary The large magnitude of predicted warming at high latitudes and the potential feedback of ecosystems to atmospheric CO2 concentrations make it important to quantify both warming and its effects on high-latitude carbon balance. We analysed long-term, daily surface meteorological records for 13 sites in Alaska and north-western Canada and an 82-y record of river ice breakup date for the Tanana River in interior Alaska. We found increases in winter and spring temperature extrema for all sites, with the greatest increases in spring minimum temperature, average 0.47 °C per 10 y, and a 0.7-day per 10 y advance in ice breakup on the Tanana River. We used the climate records to drive an ecosystem process model, BIOME_BGC, to simulate the effects of climate change on the carbon and water balances of boreal forest ecosystems. The growing season has lengthened by an average of 2.6 days per 10 y with an advance in average leaf onset date of 1.10 days per 10 y. This advance in the start of the active growing season correlates positively with progressively earlier ice breakup on the Tanana River in interior Alaska. The advance in the start of the growing season resulted in a 20% increase in net primary production for both aspen (Populus tremuloides) and white spruce (Picea glauca) stands. Aspen had a greater mean increase in maintenance respiration than spruce, whereas spruce had a greater mean increase in evapotranspiration. Average decomposition rates also increased for both species. Both net primary production and decomposition are enhanced in our simulations, suggesting that productive forest types may not experience a significant shift in net carbon flux as a result of climate warming.

Modelling carbon responses of tundra ecosystems to historical and projected climate: sensitivity of pan-Arctic carbon storage to temporal and spatial variation in climate

Abstract: Historical and projected climate trends for high latitudes show substantial temporal and spatial variability. To identify uncertainties in simulating carbon (C) dynamics for pan-Arctic tundra, we compare the historical and projected responses of tundra C storage from 1921 to 2100 between simulations by the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM) for the pan-Arctic and the Kuparuk River Basin, which was the focus of an integrated study of C dynamics from 1994 to 1996. In the historical period from 1921 to 1994, the responses of net primary production (NPP) and heterotrophic respiration (RH ) simulated for the Kuparuk River Basin and the pan-Arctic are correlated with the same factors; NPP is positively correlated with net nitrogen mineralization (NMIN) and RH is negatively correlated with mean annual soil moisture. In comparison to the historical period, the spatially aggregated responses of NPP and RH for the Kuparuk River Basin and the pan-Arctic in our simulations for the projected period have different sensitivities to temperature, soil moisture and NMIN. In addition to being sensitive to soil moisture during the projected period, RH is also sensitive to temperature and there is a significant correlation between RH and NMIN. We interpret the increases in NPP during the projected period as being driven primarily by increases in NMIN, and that the correlation between NPP and temperature in the projected period is a result primarily of the causal linkage between temperature, RH , and NMIN. Although similar factors appear to be controlling simulated regional-and biome-scale C dynamics, simulated C dynamics at the two scales differ in magnitude with higher increases in C storage simulated for the Kuparuk River Basin than for the pan-Arctic at the end of the historical period and throughout the projected period. Also, the results of the simulations indicate that responses of C storage show different climate sensitivities at regional and pan-Arctic spatial scales and that these sensitivities change across the temporal scope of the simulations. The results of the TEM simulations indicate that the scaling of C dynamics to a region of arctic tundra may not represent C dynamics of pan-Arctic tundra because of the limited spatial variation in climate and vegetation within a region relative to the pan-Arctic. For reducing uncertainties, our analyses highlight the importance of incorporating the understanding gained from process-level studies of C dynamics in a region of arctic tundra into process-based models that simulate C dynamics in a spatially explicit fashion across the spatial domain of pan-Arctic tundra. Also, efforts to improve gridded datasets of historical climate for the pan-Arctic would advance the ability to assess the responses of C dynamics for pan-Arctic tundra in a more realistic fashion. A major challenge will be to incorporate topographic controls over soil moisture in assessing the response of C storage for pan-Arctic tundra.