Showing papers in "International journal of disaster risk reduction in 2014"

Process for integrating local and indigenous knowledge with science for hydro-meteorological disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation in coastal and small island communities

Abstract: The important role that local knowledge and practices can play in reducing risk and improving disaster preparedness is now acknowledged by disaster risk reduction specialists, especially since the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake and tsunami. However, they have yet to be commonly used by communities, scientists, practitioners and policy-makers. We believe that local and indigenous knowledge needs to be integrated with science before it can be used in policies, education, and actions related to disaster risk reduction and climate change. This paper presents a process for integrating local and indigenous knowledge related to hydro-meteorological hazards and climate change with science, developed through a project implemented among coastal and small island communities in Indonesia, the Philippines and Timor-Leste. The process involves observation, documentation, validation, and categorization of local and indigenous knowledge, which can then be selected for integration with science. This process is unique in that it allows communities to (1) identify knowledge that can be integrated with science, which could then be further disseminated for use by scientists, practitioners and policy-makers, and (2) safeguard and valorize those that cannot be scientifically explained. By introducing a process that can be used in other communities and countries, we hope to promote the use of local and indigenous knowledge to enable communities to increase their resilience against the impacts of climate change and disasters.

Farmers׳ perception of drought impacts, local adaptation and administrative mitigation measures in Maharashtra State, India

Abstract: Recurring drought is a major challenge in the Drought Prone Area of Maharashtra State in India. Agriculture (e.g., rainfed cropping and livestock) is the major income activity of over 64% of the state׳s population. The objective of this study is to understand the rural farming community׳s perception of drought impacts on their socio-economic activities and environment, their adaptation at the household level and opinions on government drought mitigation measures. This study is based on both secondary and primary data collected via a survey of 223 farming households. The results show that decrease in yield of cereals, horticultural crops, livestock production and loss of employment, all associated with decreased income of farmers, were the most immediate economic impacts of drought. Social impacts such as population migration, impacts on health and schooling of children, hopelessness and sense of loss, conflicts in society for water, and malnutrition due to changed food preferences were also reported. The environmental impacts such as increases in average atmospheric temperature, pasture-forest degradation, deteriorated water quality, damage to fish habitat-wild life, and groundwater depletion were perceived by farmers to high extent. In spite of good perception of severity of drought impacts by farmers and their familiarity with various adaptation options, the preference given for their adoption in agriculture was not good enough. Also to mitigate drought, the government provided various mitigation measures, but the level of satisfaction amongst farmers was low. It is expected that this study will help policy makers to develop more appropriate drought adaptation policies in India.

The socioeconomic vulnerability index: A pragmatic approach for assessing climate change led risks–A case study in the south-western coastal Bangladesh

Abstract: We develop a Socioeconomic Vulnerability Index (SeVI) for climate change affected communities in seven unions 1 of Koyra upazilla 2 in south-western coastal Bangladesh. We survey 60 households from each union to collect data on various vulnerability domains and socioeconomic indicators. The SeVI aggregate these collected data using a composite indicator index, where a relative weight is assigned to each indicator with a view of obtaining weighted average index scores for different vulnerability domains in different unions. Results suggest that southern and south-eastern unions are relatively more vulnerable, which are the most exposed to natural hazards and mostly surrounded by the mangrove forest Sundarbans. Furthermore, social, economic and disaster frequency are found as more influential indicators to adaptive capacity, sensitivity and exposure respectively in Koyra. This pragmatic approach is useful to figure out and monitor socioeconomic vulnerability and/or assess potential adaptation-policy effectiveness in data scarce regions by incorporating scenarios into the SeVI for baseline comparison.

Does mitigation save? Reviewing cost-benefit analyses of disaster risk reduction

Abstract: The benefit-cost-ratio (BCR), used in cost-benefit analysis (CBA), is an indicator that attempts to summarize the overall value for money of a project. Disaster costs continue to rise and the demand has increased to demonstrate the economic benefit of disaster risk reduction (DRR) to policy makers. This study compiles and compares original CBA case studies reporting DRR BCRs, without restrictions as to hazard type, location, scale, or other parameters. Many results were identified supporting the economic effectiveness of DRR, however, key limitations were identified, including a lack of: sensitivity analyses, meta-analyses which critique the literature, consideration of climate change, evaluation of the duration of benefits, broader consideration of the process of vulnerability, and potential disbenefits of DRR measures. The studies demonstrate the importance of context for each BCR result. Recommendations are made regarding minimum criteria to consider when conducting DRR CBAs.

Multi-hazard and multi-risk decision-support tools as a part of participatory risk governance: feedback from civil protection stakeholders

Abstract: The number of people affected by natural hazards is growing, as many regions of the world become subject to multiple hazards. Although volume of geophysical, sociological and economic knowledge is increasing, so are the losses from natural catastrophes. The slow transfer from theory to practice might lay in the difficulties of the communication process from science to policy-making, including perceptions by stakeholders from disaster mitigation practice regarding the usability of developed tools. As scientific evidence shows, decision-makers are faced with the challenge of not only mitigating against single hazards and risks, but also multiple risks, which must include the consideration of their interrelations. As the multi-hazard and risk concept is a relatively young area of natural risk governance, there are only a few multi-risk models and the experience of practitioners as to how to use these models is limited. To our knowledge, scientific literature on stakeholders' perceptions of multi-risk models is lacking. In this article we identify perceptions of two decision-making tools, which involve multi-hazard and multi-risk. The first one is a generic, multi-risk framework based on the sequential Monte Carlo method to allow for a straightforward and flexible implementation of hazard interactions, which may occur in a complex system. The second is a decision-making tool that integrates direct input from stakeholders by attributing weights to different components and constructing risks ratings. Based on the feedback from stakeholders, we found that interest in multi-risk assessment is high but that its application remains hampered by the complexity of processes involved.

A critical review of retrofitting methods for unreinforced masonry structures

Abstract: Unreinforced masonry (URM) buildings are common throughout Latin America, the Himalayan region, Eastern Europe, Indian subcontinent and other parts of Asia. It has been observed that these buildings cannot withstand the lateral loads imposed by an earthquake and often fails, in a brittle manner. Methods for retrofitting URM buildings to increase the time required for collapse and also to improve the overall strength widely vary. This review has collated information on various types of retrofitting methods either under research or early implementation. Furthermore, these methods are categorized and critically analyzed to help further understand which methods are most suitable for future research or application in developing countries. The comparison of the different methods is based on economy, sustainability and buildability and provides a useful insight. The study may provide useful guidance to policy makers, planners, designers, architects and engineers in choosing a suitable retrofitting methodology.

Preparing for complex interdependent risks: a system of systems approach to building disaster resilience

Abstract: The uncertainty posed by natural and human-made disasters arises from both known risks and a range of unforeseeable risks, some of which may be novel, not having been observed before. These interconnected risks may evolve over short periods of time and may feed into one another. In a network of multiple causes and effects, such risks may not be foreseeable at the disaster preparedness level, and may only be observed at the time of disaster response. This creates a higher level of complexity and requires new approaches with individual organizations and members needing to make decisions outside predefined frameworks and hierarchical command-control structures while still operating in the ethos of their organizations. This study advocates the need for disaster preparedness strategies to go beyond linear approaches to risk management. This is necessary in order to better address complex interdependent risks where such risks may be novel or unforeseen and which may connect in a cascading manner. The resulting causal network needs to be addressed with a networked approach to enrich existing linear approaches by recognizing the need for an interconnected holistic approach to deal appropriately with interconnected risk factors. This paper takes an interpretive perspective rather than the more typical positivist one. System of Systems (SoS) and complex systems thinking were used to inform a sense-making framework to distinguish between approaches to known/knowable and unknown risks. Finally, the paper reports on how this framework was used in South Australia on three different scales of the SoS: community, NGOs and government.

Developing a resilience index towards natural disasters in Indonesia

Abstract: Most areas in Indonesia are prone to natural disasters, such as earthquakes, tsunami and volcano eruptions. In order to minimize the disaster impacts and shorten the recovery period, the resilience of a disaster-prone area is required to be assessed. This paper aims to develop a framework to assess the resilience of disaster-prone areas in Indonesia towards natural disasters, by establishing an index. In the framework, resilience is defined as the ratio between preparedness and vulnerability. The dimensions for preparedness are social, economic, community capacity, institutional and infrastructure. Similar dimensions applied for the vulnerability with additional dimension of hazard, come up with an index that is scaled from 0 to 1. The framework is applied to assess the resilience of Cilacap regency (in Central Java province) and the city of Padang (in West Sumatra province). The results show that both areas are resilient towards natural disasters, although certain improvements still can be made to further increase the resilience of both areas.

Evaluations of disaster education programs for children: A methodological review

Abstract: The purpose of this methodological literature review was to investigate how scholars and practitioners currently measure and judge the effectiveness of disaster education programs for children through evaluation. From a systematic search of the published and gray literature, 35 studies were identified and analyzed to develop a categorization of the operational components of the existing body of research, including the types and sources of evaluations, research methods and designs, research participants, outcome indicators, approaches to analysis, and research limitations. A significant finding is that most of what is known about the effectiveness of disaster education programs for children is based on the results of quantitative studies with children that generally focused on measuring children׳s knowledge of disaster risks and protective actions and child reports of preparedness actions. The majority of descriptive and quasi-experimental studies concluded that programs were effective based on the portion or positive change in children׳s correct answers on surveys, and most correlational studies concluded positive outcomes such as household preparedness were associated with children׳s participation in disaster education programs. However, many of the studies had significant methodological limitations. While there is evidence of valuable knowledge change, there is still very limited empirical evidence of how disaster education programs facilitate children׳s roles in household preparedness, their self-protective capacities, or their likelihood of preparing for disasters as adults. In addition to the need to identify and refine program theory and meaningful outcome indicators, the authors suggest several other opportunities for future research.

How bonding and bridging networks contribute to disaster resilience and recovery on the Bangladeshi coast

Abstract: Bonding relationships (with family members and relatives) and bridging relationships (with neighbours and friends) are key elements of social networks. These relationships play a vital role in how a community responds to extreme climate events, including cyclones and storm surges. This study investigates how bonding and bridging relationships contribute to recovery from disaster, using the two coastal villages of Bangladesh affected by Cyclone Sidr as case studies. We investigated these contributions through using household surveys, focus groups, meetings with NGOs and local and national key informants. Results show that after a cyclone, affected communities draw heavily on their bonding and bridging relationships to face the immediate crisis. Support through bonding and bridging networks—sharing food, providing comfort, mutual works, etc.—is very important initially. As the time after the disaster increases, these networks perform less well, because of the limited physical and financial capital. After a period of time, bridging relationships become less active and sometimes break down due to poverty, disaster impact, and competition and conflict over access to external support. Bonding relationships, however, do not break down; rather, they continue contributing to the recovery process by reducing food intake, helping with alternative income, and livelihood options through temporary migration and so on. For longer-term recovery, however, disaster victims usually need support through linking social networks, e.g. from the national and international NGOs, local government, and Community-based Organisations. The study concludes by exploring policy options for strengthening the capacities of bonding and bridging networks for disaster recovery and promoting resilience.

Women in natural disasters: A case study from southern coastal region of Bangladesh

Abstract: Natural disasters are frequent phenomena in the coastal regions of Bangladesh, causing significant damage to the coastal community and environment. The present study was conducted in southern coastal region of Bangladesh with the aim to explore women׳s preparedness, risk and loss, cultural and conditional behaviour, adaptability and recovery capacity from the natural disasters. During disaster a kind of functional disorder gets created where women had to face challenges different from men. Women have to face loss of livelihood opportunities, deprivation from relief materials, sexual harassment and enjoy little scope of participation in any response or management activities. Likewise, they also suffer from inverse care law after disaster. Contrary to that, disaster also creates a condition to accrue diverse positive and constructive impacts including women׳s transformative role which often do not get reported. Disaster leads the planners to follow not merely the compensatory principle but also restoration and augmentation principles which give more benefits to the low income group of the coast. Nevertheless, in the coast the higher is the loss of property, the lower is the tendency among the dwellers to invest which has a long-lasting effect on capital formation and social development.

Voluntary relocation as an adaptation strategy to extreme weather events

Abstract: Migration out of hazard-prone areas presents significant opportunities for disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation. Alongside and intermingled with opportunistic migration there has always been relocation to escape, particularly from calamity, disaster and warfare. As climate change is considered a likely driver of migration, the literature encompasses a debate as to whether or not migration can be considered to be adaptation. This paper investigates the concept of voluntary within-country migration as an adaptation strategy to reduce disaster risk in Australia. We refer to this internal migration as relocation. The paper examines results of research carried out in Australia at the time of recent and extensive disasters, where opportunities were presented to examine household attitudes towards relocation in the face of future disasters of similar extent. Individuals׳ attitudes towards relocation were ascertained within an adaptation and mitigation context, at a time of emerging longer-term climate change government policy that advocates retreat from hazard-prone locations. The paper examines demographic data to reveal who is likely to leave or stay. Policy implications of relocation strategies as climate change adaptation strategy within a developed nation are discussed. This research concludes that relocation is a strategy available to some as part of an extensive range of responses to extreme weather events but undertaking unsupported resettlement is not always an option for reasons of family commitment, livelihood opportunities, financial constraints and emotional ties. Those who remain, and those who leave a hazard-prone location may both demonstrate a capacity for adaptation and resilience.

Deluge, disaster and development in Uttarakhand Himalayan region of India: Challenges and lessons for disaster management

Abstract: The Himalaya has been venerated by communities since antiquity and hence visited by a large number of pilgrims for paying tribute, annually. Uttarakhand state in the Indian Himalaya being the place of major Hindu shrines like Badrinath, Kedarnath, Gangotri and Yamunotri and also the place of origin of many sacred rivers including the Ganges, at present, is best known for the religious tourism. Though, the state population is about 10 million, over 25 million tourists visited here in 2011 despite the fact that the state remains under frequent natural hazards in the forms of landslides, earthquakes and flash floods mainly during monsoon. Recently, on 16 and 17 June 2013, the torrential downpour and subsequent flooding had wreaked havoc that not only swallowed vast swathes of Uttarakhand but also took life of thousands of pilgrims and tourists. The cloudburst, heavy rainfall and subsequent landslides are the natural disasters but this disaster in Uttarakhand is mainly attributed by masses as a man-made disaster due to unregulated tourism and unplanned construction. In this background, the major aim of this study is to explore and review the factors responsible for increased intensity and scale of disaster due to flash floods in the Uttarakhand state of India. The paper also reviews and discusses various options for disaster risk reductions in the sensitive ecosystem such as the Himalaya.

Flood insurance schemes and climate adaptation in developing countries

Abstract: Risk transfer, including insurance, is widely recognized as a tool for increasing financial resilience to severe weather events such as floods. The application of this mechanism varies widely across countries, with a range of different types and schemes in operation. While most of the analytical focus has so far been on those markets that have a long tradition of insurance, there is still a clear gap in our understanding of how this mechanism works in a developing country context. This paper assesses 27 insurance schemes that transfer the risk of economic losses arising from floods in low—and middle income countries, focusing on the linkages between financial risk transfer and risk reduction. This aspect is important to avoid the effect of moral hazard and has gained particular relevance in the context of the climate change adaptation discourse, where some scholars and practitioners view insurance as a potential tool not just for current risks, but also to address projected future impacts of a changing climate by incentivizing risk reduction. We therefore look beyond the pure financial risk transfer nature of those 27 insurance schemes and investigate any prevention and risk reduction elements. Our analysis suggests that the potential for utilizing risk transfer for risk reduction is far from exhausted, with only very few schemes showing an operational link between risk transfer and risk reduction, while the effectiveness and implementation on the ground remains unclear. The dearth of linkages between risk reduction and insurance is a missed opportunity in the efforts to address rising risk levels, particularly in the context of climate change. Rising risk levels pose a threat to the insurability of floods, and insurance without risk reduction elements could lead to moral hazard. Therefore a closer linkage between risk transfer and risk reduction could make this a more sustainable and robust tool.

Can the vulnerable be resilient? Co-existence of vulnerability and disaster resilience: informal settlements in the Philippines

Abstract: This paper explores the relationship between vulnerability and resilience in the context of informal settlements, using a case study of two barangays in a rural province in the Philippines Central to the discussion in this paper is whether and how vulnerability and resilience can exist simultaneously The authors first identify community vulnerability, which is explored through geographical, economic, and physical vulnerability Another element involves land-related vulnerability characterised by unsustainable land use, poor urban planning, non-existence of building codes and weak land administration Approximately sixty per cent of all properties in the case study areas are held in informal land tenures Many of these informal settlers have established houses on land with a high hazard risk - for example, adjacent to rivers, on disused railway reserves and along road corridors The result is they face the threat of eviction, and may have difficulty returning to their land after disasters Qualitative analysis of households in the case study areas revealed that the strength of social relationships helps to reduce the vulnerability of the communities A paradoxical relationship between vulnerability and resilience is evident Strong community perceptions of their level of resilience to the impacts of disasters are supported by the social domains of the community They have inbuilt resilience resulting from the perception of disasters as part of life, strong social bonds and government awareness of the validity of the informal settlements

Uncertainty and decision making: Volcanic crisis scenarios

Abstract: The impact of uncertainty on Disaster Risk Reduction decision-making has become a pressing issue for debate over recent years. How do key officials interpret and accommodate uncertainty in science advice, forecasts and warnings into their decision making? Volcanic eruptions present a particularly uncertain hazard environment, and to accommodate this scientists utilize probabilistic techniques to inform decision-making. However, the interpretation of probabilities is influenced by their framing. We investigate how verbal or numerical probabilities affect decisions to evacuate a hypothetical town, and reasons given for that decision, based upon a volcanic eruption forecast. We find fewer evacuations for verbal terms than for equivalent numerical terms, and that the former is viewed as more ambiguous. This difference is greater for scientists, which we suggest is due to their greater familiarity with numerical probabilities and a belief that they are more certain. We also find that many participants have a poor understanding of the relationship between probability and time window stated, resulting in an incorrect assessment of overall likelihood and more evacuations for the lower likelihood version of two scenarios. Further, we find that career sector (scientist or non-scientist) influences evacuation decisions, with scientists tending to reduce the uncertainty by focusing on the quality and volume of information provided, while non-scientists tended to either acknowledge or suppress the uncertainty, focusing on actions to take. These findings demonstrate the importance of identifying communication strategies that mitigate different perceptions of forecasts, to both enhance end-user decision making and to prevent premature, delayed, or unnecessary actions.

Tsunami risk reduction – are we better prepared today than in 2004?

Abstract: With over 220,000 fatalities, the 26 December 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami was one of the deadliest natural hazard events ever, and represents a landmark in disaster risk reduction governance in several ways. The 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami led to a better understanding of the likelihood of tsunami occurrence and potential tsunami inundation. For example, the Hyogo Framework Agreement was a direct result of this event. Since December 2004, Indonesia, Samoa, Chile and Japan were hit by altogether six destructive tsunamis in 2006, 2007, 2009, 2010 and 2011. This article looks into the progress (or lack thereof) made in tsunami risk reduction at the local level during the past ten years, with focus on the densely populated coastal regions of Indonesia and Sri Lanka. The experience from other countries, as well as the progress made in the state of the art for assessment of tsunami hazard, vulnerability, exposure and risk are also summarized. In addition, extensive new warning systems enabling a rapid assessment of the potential coastal impact of a tsunami have been developed and implemented. However, the experience from the tsunami events in October 2010 in Indonesia and March 2011 in Japan clearly demonstrated that the tsunami risk mitigation measures implemented to date are far from adequate. The article also examines the progress in assessing and factoring in vulnerability aspects in tsunami risk reduction, highlighted through two case studies in Padang (Indonesia) and Galle (Sri Lanka). In this regard, societal awareness and behavioural response to tsunamis are addressed. Recommendations about how the improved knowledge about tsunami hazard, vulnerability and exposure assessment gained over the past decade could be better implemented into tsunami risk reduction measures are provided at the end of the article.

Toward conceptual frameworks for linking disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation

Abstract: The priorities of disaster risk reduction (DRR) and climate change adaptation (CCA) agendas both include reducing vulnerability and enhancing resilience. Thus, it is crucial to link DRR and CCA to benefit simultaneously from risk reduction and adaptation measures. The article provides conceptual frameworks that could be useful for better understanding and promoting the integration of DRR and CCA by linking these approaches to accelerate risk reduction and adaptation measures at all levels (global, regional, national and local). This linkage could be an important basis for discussion in climate negotiations regarding the allocation of funds needed for tackling climate change, especially in developing countries. This article also identifies common features and practices for DRR and CCA in several sectors and documents the growing acknowledgment and affirmation of the need to integrate DRR and CCA into development policy and planning.

Assessing risks from climate variability and change for disaster-prone zones in Bangladesh

Abstract: We have measured livelihoods vulnerability indices for four disaster prone zones in Bangladesh, namely saline, flood, flash flood and drought. A total of 2558 households were surveyed to collect data on socio-demographics, livelihoods, social networks, health, food and water security, natural disasters and climate variability. The data were aggregated using a composite index and vulnerabilities across the four disaster prone areas were compared. Our results show that the flash flood zone is the most vulnerable zone followed by the saline, drought and flood zones respectively. The flash flood zone is mainly a mono-rice crop area and local livelihood opportunities are uncertain and limited. Road infrastructure is poor as a large part of this zone remains under water in the wet season. Public health services are underprovided and the hospitals are understaffed, sanitary conditions are poor and the households suffer a longer period of food insecurity. The poor households living in the saline zone have to depend more on social networks and local authorities to withstand livelihood shocks brought about by natural disasters such as tidal surges, cyclones and increasing salinity. The drought and saline zones are highly vulnerable to water. Water in these zones is not only scarce but also unsafe for drinking. The saline zone also suffers from salinity in water used for irrigation which has already affected productivity of land. We suggest an increase in public spending on sanitation and drinking water, health and rural infrastructure particularly in the disaster prone areas where incidence of poverty is high.

Disaster resilience: A question of ‘multiple faces’ and ‘multiple spaces’?

Abstract: There is a general recognition that resilience is not necessarily a new concept. Rather, it is an old concept passed on through generations. Yet, far too little attention has been given to examine the resilience of traditional institutions that could potentially increase our understanding of resilience to disasters. This paper argues that the traditional institution of chieftaincy in many parts of Africa could potentially offer lessons in the theory and practice of resilience to disasters. The discourses and narratives tend to present traditional chiefs in Africa as political appendages of both colonial and post-independence governments. In contrast, the chieftaincy should be viewed as a resilient and adaptable institution which is able to maintain its structure in both ‘normal’ and repressive administrations largely in the interests of its communities. Using the case study material from Zimbabwe, this paper illustrates how the chieftaincy in Zimbabwe is continuously re-making, replenishing and adapting to the neo-liberal and post-Marxist agendas in order to remain relevant to the ever-changing socio-economic environment. The conclusion is that the chieftaincy is the ‘real’ example of a resilient institution from which disaster resilience can learn.

Translation and evaluation of the Baseline Resilience Indicators for Communities on the Sunshine Coast, Queensland Australia

Abstract: There is a pressing need for longitudinal assessments of a community׳s level of disaster resilience in order to identify appropriate strategies for building and enhancing resilience. Despite significant challenges, there are several assessment tools available that organize and emphasize specific resilience themes in multiple ways, at multiple scales. In this study we adapt the Baseline Resilience Indicators for Communities (BRIC) to apply to our case study region and call upon local and district disaster management experts to evaluate the appropriateness of the assessment tool for this case study location. Our findings identify that the absence of an ecological resilience theme has limited the usefulness of the BRIC for the case study region, as has the inability of the BRIC to transition between local to regional scale indicators of resilience.

The role of social capital and public policy in disaster recovery: A case study of Tamil Nadu State, India

Abstract: The objective of this research is to determine what important roles are played by social capital in the implementation of recovery policies for areas affected by disasters. We will compare two districts in India where tsunami recovery has either failed or been successful. In 2004, the Sumatra Tsunami in the Indian Ocean killed more than 14,000 people and left 50,000 people homeless. Regardless of the cultural background or ethnicity of victims, disaster recovery greatly depends on social capital. This research included a questionnaire survey administered to people in two tsunami-affected districts and compared the types of social capital that can be associated with disaster recovery. The result is that the style of each community prior to the disaster and the presence of a strong village leader are both crucial for the successful implementation of a recovery program. We believe that social capital significantly affects successful policy implementation, which will lead people to utilize government resources for disaster recovery.

Strategies for building resilience to hazards in water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) systems: The role of public private partnerships

Abstract: The aim of this paper is to enhance understanding of how the resilience of water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) systems to hazards can be improved. In turn, this aims to inform different strategies for public and private partnerships (PPPs). In a new approach, to acknowledge the multi levelled nature of resilience; risk at the relevant levels are taken into account, (regional/river basin, urban area, and individual). For these levels, we first describe the different components of risk, vulnerability and resilience of the WASH system that influence people's exposure to hazards. We illustrate these components using examples from case studies in the literature. Using a social learning lens - a crucial ingredient of resilience - we examine opportunities for reducing risks through improving public-private engagement. These are presented as strategies which could guide investment decisions: As pressures from climate change and development add up, businesses must become aware of the risks involved in operating and investing without considering ecosystem health, both in terms of the services they provide for mitigating floods and droughts, as well as in terms of the development approaches that define how ecosystems are managed (e.g. "making space" for, rather than controlling water). There is a need to develop an institutional culture that strives towards greener and more resilient urban environments with the help of various quality assurance methods. Partnerships must reach the poorer customer base, encourage informal small entrepreneurs, and boost financial mechanisms (e.g. micro-insurance, micro-finance) to support the most vulnerable in society.

Integrating climate change adaptation, disaster risk reduction and urban planning: A review of Nicaraguan policies and regulations

Abstract: The integration of risk reduction and climate change adaptation has become an urgent task in addressing increasing urban risk more effectively and efficiently. This paper analyses the extent to which climate change adaptation is integrated into the policies and regulatory frameworks that guide urban risk reduction in Nicaragua, and discusses related progress. The results reveal significant progress in integrating climate change adaptation into the policy and regulatory frameworks of the three relatively new fields of (a) disaster risk reduction, (b) environmental management and (c) urban planning. They show that differences in the degree of integration relate to the development and updates to policy instruments in each field, and the extent to which they are related to the implementation of international climate change agreements. Although initially climate change adaptation integration was focused on the protection of natural resources in general, and food production in particular, since 2008 authorities have shown increasing interest in a more comprehensive and integrated approach. Nevertheless, the integration of climate change adaptation into disaster risk reduction and urban planning still lags behind the advances made in the environmental management field. It is concluded that in order to achieve greater and more coherent integration of CCA and, ultimately, improve the way climate-related risks is dealt with, urban authorities need to systematically review current policies and regulations to assess the synergies and gaps. This requires inter-sectoral and participative work with the actors concerned at national and local level, as well as the establishment of related monitoring and learning mechanisms.

EPES – Earthquake pedestrians׳ evacuation simulator: A tool for predicting earthquake pedestrians׳ evacuation in urban outdoor scenarios

Abstract: Earthquake risk assessment at urban scale does not actually consider human behaviours during both the event and the first evacuation phases. Nevertheless, understanding and simulating these aspects become essential in determining how human behaviours influence inhabitants׳ safety levels, defining combined "risk maps" and evaluating community resilience features. This work proposes an innovative approach by offering a simulator for pedestrians׳ earthquake evacuation in urban scenarios. Firstly, our previous behavioural investigations of real earthquake evacuation from all over the World allow organizing rules in pedestrians׳ evacuation and man-environment interactions in the post-event scenario: an agent-based (ABM) approach is provided for their representation by using the i⁎ language. Secondly, operative criteria for pedestrian motion are provided: in particular, motion law for pedestrians is defined by modifying the Social Force model approach with the behavioural results of our case study. Rules for environmental modifications due to the earthquake are proposed. Finally, the software EPES (Earthquake Pedestrians׳ Evacuation Simulator) is implemented on these bases and validated using a case study (an Italian historical centre). RESULTS firstly summarize the behavioural analysis discussion and the ABM definition. First validations about ruins formations, behavioural aspects, motion speed in evacuations and path choice are offered. EPES is proposed as a tool for evaluating probable pedestrians׳ choices in different scenarios, and checking solutions for reducing interferences between the human evacuation process and the built environment. Operative strategies for interferences reduction could be founded on model previsions, such as interventions on particular buildings, evacuation strategies definition and urban planning.

Tsunami vertical-evacuation planning in the U.S. Pacific Northwest as a geospatial, multi-criteria decision problem

Abstract: Tsunami vertical-evacuation (TVE) refuges can be effective risk-reduction options for coastal communities with local tsunami threats but no accessible high ground for evacuations. Deciding where to locate TVE refuges is a complex risk-management question, given the potential for conflicting stakeholder priorities and multiple, suitable sites. We use the coastal community of Ocean Shores (Washington, USA) and the local tsunami threat posed by Cascadia subduction zone earthquakes as a case study to explore the use of geospatial, multi-criteria decision analysis for framing the locational problem of TVE siting. We demonstrate a mixed-methods approach that uses potential TVE sites identified at community workshops, geospatial analysis to model changes in pedestrian evacuation times for TVE options, and statistical analysis to develop metrics for comparing population tradeoffs and to examine influences in decision making. Results demonstrate that no one TVE site can save all at-risk individuals in the community and each site provides varying benefits to residents, employees, customers at local stores, tourists at public venues, children at schools, and other vulnerable populations. The benefit of some proposed sites varies depending on whether or not nearby bridges will be functioning after the preceding earthquake. Relative rankings of the TVE sites are fairly stable under various criteria-weighting scenarios but do vary considerably when comparing strategies to exclusively protect tourists or residents. The proposed geospatial framework can serve as an analytical foundation for future TVE siting discussions.

Global tsunami hazard and exposure due to large co-seismic slip

Abstract: Tsunamis are infrequent events with the power to cause massive loss of life, large economic losses, and cascading effects such as destruction of critical facilities. Historical tsunamis and paleotsunami evidence indicates indirectly that massive megathrust earthquakes leads to the majority of the losses due to tsunamis. There is a need to quantify the tsunami hazard from megathrust events in order to compare tsunamis with other natural hazards on a global level, as previous attempts have been lacking. Here, we determine the earthquake induced tsunami hazard for a return period of 500 years using both a deterministic scenario based approach as well as a probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment method (PTHA). The resulting hazard level for a set of selected areas in South and South East Asia are compared quantitatively for both methods. The comparison demonstrate that the accuracy of the analysis is rather rough, which is expected given the global character of the analysis. Globally, the exposed elements at risk such as population, produced capital, and nuclear power plants are determined for each nation affected. It is shown that populous Asian countries account for the largest absolute number of people living in tsunami prone areas, more than 50% of the total exposed people live in Japan. Smaller nations like Macao and the Maldives are among the most exposed by population count. Exposed nuclear power plants are limited to Japan, China, India, Taiwan, and USA.

People's risk perception in earthquake prone Quetta city of Baluchistan

Abstract: Large parts of Pakistan lie within a seismically active Himalayan belt. The experts suspect that in the next century, damages from earthquakes would be unprecedented. The objective of this paper is to examine the perception of people living with earthquake risks in Quetta, using key informant interviews, community group discussions and structured household survey. The survey has been conducted among 200 households, applying the simple random sampling method. The study explored the relationship among different variables including socio-economic status of the respondents using multivariate statistics. The results revealed that earthquake risk perception associates significantly with the people's age, income, education etc. Further, the perception of earthquake risk varies among different governmental and non-governmental organizations and community members. The survey results also reveal that people know the risks posed by earthquakes but have fatalistic attitudes towards the future predictions of the earthquakes. The paper recommends programs and projects to create public awareness and preparedness for risk reduction.

Does natural disaster influence people׳s risk preference and trust? An experiment from cyclone prone coast of Bangladesh

Abstract: Natural catastrophic events may have enormous negative effects on economic growth. People affected by the disaster might be risk averse because of anxiety about the future uncertainty of economic returns. The purpose of this empirical study is to highlight the effect of natural disasters (specifically coastal cyclonic storm surges) on individuals׳ risk preference and level of trust. This study also aims to disentangle risk propensity from trust. It reveals that natural disasters can significantly reduce people׳s risk-taking attitudes, whereas the catastrophic events have no influence on trusting behavior. The study suggests that risk attitudes are significantly negatively correlated with trust.

Main challenges on community-based approaches in earthquake risk reduction: case study of Tehran, Iran

Abstract: During the recent years and especially after the destructive Bam Earthquake in December 2003, the importance of public awareness and community-based activities for disaster risk mitigation and management have been revealed more clearly to Iran׳s authorities. In this regard, several national policies have been prepared and some activities were carried out by governmental and non-governmental organizations for improving the public awareness and participation in earthquake risk reduction programs from local to national levels. In this paper, these activities have been partly addressed. In addition, the results of a pilot study carried out in three districts of Tehran are presented and discussed in order to evaluate the current situation of public awareness as well as the willingness of Tehran residents to participate in risk mitigation activities. After providing the necessary training and preparing disaster maps, the results of this study showed that communities found novel ways to improve their capabilities for reducing the impacts of potential earthquakes and responding to their effects. Understanding the physical and technical shortages of community-based organizations in Tehran in the field of disaster preparedness and management was another outcome of this research.