Showing papers in "Journal of Experimental Criminology in 2018"
TL;DR: In this paper, the effect of procedural injustice relative to being sanctioned by police on a variety of outcome measures, such as decision acceptance and immediate compliance, in two types of police-citizen encounters, traffic stops and noise complaints was tested.
Abstract: This study tested the effect of procedural injustice relative to being sanctioned by police on a variety of outcome measures, such as decision acceptance and immediate compliance, in two types of police–citizen encounters, traffic stops and noise complaints. A factorial vignette design was used to determine the effect that the manipulations (i.e., procedural injustice and receiving a citation) had on the dependent variables. Participants (N = 594) were randomly assigned one vignette scenario with four possible conditions. After reading the hypothetical encounter, closed-ended survey items were administered to participants. The standardized regression coefficients from the ordinal regression models revealed that participants who were administered the procedural injustice stimuli are less satisfied with how the police resolved the encounter, reported that they are less likely to follow the police directives, said they are less willing to accept the officer’s decisions, and are more likely to wish the police had handled the situation differently. This pattern of findings was consistent in both types of police encounters. Importantly, support was also found for the hypothesis that procedural injustice is more salient in predicting outcomes than whether a citation is issued. The results support the process-based model of regulation and serve to underscore the influence of unfair police processes on encounter-specific outcome variables.
62 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the reproducibility of empirical findings in early developmental crime prevention and offender treatment has been discussed and strategies that can enhance the replication of findings have been proposed, such as more systematic investigation of those differentiated conditions under which interventions are most effective.
Abstract: Recent publications in Nature, Science, and other journals raised concerns about the reproducibility of empirical findings in psychology and other scientific disciplines. This article summarizes some of these arguments and results that led to discussions about a “replication crisis” in research. In criminology, there is not yet a similar discussion, although the need for more replications has been emphasized in the past. The present article addresses this topic with special consideration of program evaluations in early developmental crime prevention and offender treatment. In both fields, there has been substantial progress in research and practice. Most systematic reviews showed mean positive effects; however, nearly all of them demonstrated very heterogeneous findings that could not be attributed to the content of programs. This does not allow simple recommendations of “what works” for policy-making and practice. In addition, there is a serious lack of long-term follow-ups and independent evaluations. The article shows remarkable similarity of the findings and problems in both fields of intervention. Problems of reproducibility prove to be highly relevant for criminology, although there is no need for using the term “crisis”. The article proposes various strategies that can enhance the reproducibility of findings, i.e., more systematic investigation of those differentiated conditions under which interventions are most effective. An integrative model of relevant characteristics is briefly presented. It refers to factors of the programs, contexts, participants, and evaluation methods. Confirmatory meta-analyses can play an important role on the path toward more differentiated and replicated knowledge
55 citations
TL;DR: Existing evidence suggests small to moderate effectiveness for parenting interventions during incarceration at close to intervention completion, and further methodologically robust research is required to more confidently establish the effectiveness of parenting programs both in the short-term and in the post-release period.
Abstract: To systematically review and quantitatively synthesize the evidence for the impact of parenting interventions for incarcerated parents on parenting knowledge and skills, parent well-being, and quality of the parent–child relationship A systematic search of 19 published and unpublished literature sources was conducted between June and July 2015 (with no date, language, document type, or geographical restrictions) Studies were included if they: (a) utilized a sample of parents who completed a parenting intervention in an incarceration setting; (b) measured parenting knowledge and skills, parent well-being, or quality of the parent–child relationship as outcome measures; and (c) employed a randomized controlled trial or quasi-experimental design with no treatment, waitlist control, or treatment-as-usual as the comparison condition Two review authors independently determined study eligibility and extracted data from eligible studies, which included rating the risk of bias for each eligible study Meta-analysis was used to synthesize standardized effect sizes, and subgroup analyses were used to examine the moderating effect of parent gender, level of child involvement, and research design Twenty-two studies were eligible for inclusion in the review; however, only 16 studies (N = 2292) reported sufficient data for inclusion in the meta-analyses Parenting interventions were more effective at post-intervention for improving parenting knowledge and skills than no treatment, waitlist control, or treatment-as-usual [standardized mean difference (SMD) = 068, 95% confidence interval (CI) 028, 106] and quality of the parent–child relationship (SMD = 027, 95% CI 002, 051), but not for improving parent well-being (SMD = 014, 95% CI −003, 030) There was significant heterogeneity across effect sizes for both parenting knowledge and skills and quality of the parent–child relationship outcome domains There were no statistically significant differences between subgroups, and the effectiveness of parenting interventions was not maintained at follow-up time-points Existing evidence suggests small to moderate effectiveness for parenting interventions during incarceration at close to intervention completion Further methodologically robust research is required to more confidently establish the effectiveness of parenting programs both in the short-term and in the post-release period
55 citations
TL;DR: There is a lack of high-quality studies into European labour trafficking, and methodological opacity, insufficient rigour and publication in non-indexed locations impede the identification, assessment and synthesis of evidence.
Abstract: Our objectives were (1) to systematically map the contours of the European evidence base on labour trafficking, identifying its key characteristics, coverage, gaps, strengths and weaknesses and (2) to synthesise key scientific research. We took a two-phase approach: a systematic map followed by a detailed synthesis of key scientific research evidence. Our search strategy included 15 databases, hand searches of additional journals, backwards searches, snowball searches and expert recommendations. We identified and screened 6106 records, mapped 152 and synthesised eight. Overall, the literature was limited and fragmented. Reports produced by official agencies dominated; academic authorship and peer-reviewed outputs were comparatively rare. Few publications met minimum scientific standards. Qualitative designs outweighed quantitative ones. Publications typically described trafficking’s problem profile and/or discussed interventions; they rarely assessed trafficking’s impacts or evaluated interventions. Even among the key scientific research, the quality of evidence was variable and often low. Particular weaknesses included poor methods reporting, unclear or imprecise results and conclusions not properly grounded in the data. The synthesised studies were all exploratory, also sharing other design features. Common themes identified included: poor treatment of victims; diversity of sectors affected and commonalities among victims; inadequacies of current responses; and barriers to interventions. There is a lack of high-quality studies into European labour trafficking. Methodological opacity, insufficient rigour and publication in non-indexed locations impede the identification, assessment and synthesis of evidence. Adherence to higher reporting standards would further the field’s development and particular research gaps should be addressed.
52 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, a meta-analysis showed that providing inmates with education while incarcerated reduced their chances of recidivism and improved their post-release employment prospects, and that inmates who received education were 28% less likely to recidivate when compared with those who did not receive education.
Abstract: Our study addresses the question: Does providing inmates with education while incarcerated reduce their chances of recidivism and improve their postrelease employment prospects? We aggregated 37 years of research (1980–2017) on correctional education and applied meta-analytic techniques. As the basis for our meta-analysis, we identified a total of 57 studies that used recidivism as an outcome and 21 studies that used employment as an outcome. We then applied random-effects regression across the effect sizes abstracted from each of these studies. When focusing on studies with the highest caliber research designs, we found that inmates participating in correctional education programs were 28% less likely to recidivate when compared with inmates who did not participate in correctional education programs. However, we found that inmates receiving correctional education were as likely to obtain postrelease employment as inmates not receiving correctional education. Our meta-analysis demonstrates the value in providing inmates with educational opportunities while they serve their sentences if the goal of the program is to reduce recidivism.
52 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, a multisite randomized controlled trial in ten departments, with officers wearing (or not wearing) body-worn cameras (BWCs) based on random assignment of shifts, was conducted to investigate the effect of BWCs on assaults on police.
Abstract: Recently, scholars have applied self-awareness theory to explain why body-worn cameras (BWCs) affect encounters between the public and police, with its most immediate manifestation being a reduction in the use of force by and complaints against police. In this study, we report on the paradoxical effects of BWCs in the context of assaults on officers. A multisite randomized controlled trial in ten departments, with officers wearing (or not wearing) BWCs based on random assignment of shifts. Odds ratios are used to estimate the treatment effect on assaults, along with “one study removed” sensitivity analyses. Further subgroup analyses are performed in terms of varying degrees of officers’ discretion, to enhance the practical applications of this multisite experiment. Finally, before-analyses are applied as well, including Bootstrapping and Monte-Carlo simulations to further validate the results under stricter statistical conditions, to illustrate the overall effects. A total of 394 assaults per 1000 arrests occurred during 3637 treatment shifts (M = 39.35, SD = 17.89) compared with 284 assaults per 1000 arrests during 3697 control shifts (M = 28.38; SD = 15.99), which translate into 37% higher odds of assault in treatment shifts than in control conditions. The perverse direction and relative magnitude in each experimental site in eight out of ten sites were consistent. The backfiring treatment effect was substantially more pronounced in low discretion sites, i.e., where officers strongly followed the experimental protocol (OR = 2.565; 95% CI 1.792, 3.672). At the same time, before–after analyses show that assaults were overall reduced by 61% in the participating police departments, thus suggesting paradoxical effects. We explain these findings using self-awareness theory. Once self-aware that their performance is being observed by BWCs, officers become at risk of being assaulted. Results suggest that under some circumstances, self-awareness can lead to excessive self-inspection that strips power-holders of their ability to function under extreme situations. This mechanism is potentially a function of “over-deterrence”. The study further demonstrates the benefits of applying psychosocial theories to the study of social control and deterrence theories more broadly, with a robust and falsifiable mechanism that explains the conditions under which being observed stimulates either appropriate or perverse consequences.
50 citations
TL;DR: This article examined how psychiatric labels and having diagnoses biologically "labeled" affect sentencing beliefs and concluded that psychiatric labels may reduce punitiveness and bolster non-punitive sentencing beliefs, and that psychiatric labeling may not affect sentencing.
Abstract: This research, using focal concerns perspective on sentencing, examines how and why psychiatric labels, and having diagnoses biologically “labeled,” affect sentencing beliefs. Dimensions of public stigma toward psychiatric illnesses are hypothesized to mediate sentencing views. This is a 2 × 2 partially-crossed, between-subjects multifactorial experiment with a lay sample (n= 1213), presenting mediation analyses. Four psychiatric labels (Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder, behavioral-variant Frontotemporal Dementia, High Functioning Autism, Borderline Intellectual Disability) led to significant beneficial effects on sentencing (less prison/rehabilitation support) as mediated by decreased stigmatization regarding lack of treatability, social acceptance, and personal responsibility. One biological “label” (Pedophilic Disorder) was mediated by decreased stigmatization (dangerousness), resulting in less prison support. Data support effects of psychiatric labeling on sentencing under focal concerns. As no psychiatric labels resulted in increased discriminatory sentencing and, instead, led to decreased discriminatory sentencing behavior, psychiatric labeling may reduce punitiveness and bolster non-punitive sentencing beliefs. Biological labeling, aside from Pedophilic Disorder, may not affect sentencing.
28 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors evaluated the effectiveness of Minnesota Circles of Support and Accountability (MnCOSA), a reentry program implemented by the Minnesota Department of Corrections in 2008.
Abstract: This study evaluates the effectiveness of Minnesota Circles of Support and Accountability (MnCOSA), a sex offender reentry program implemented by the Minnesota Department of Corrections in 2008. Using a randomized controlled trial, this study compares recidivism and cost–benefit outcomes among sex offenders in the MnCOSA (N = 50) and control groups (N = 50). The results suggest MnCOSA significantly reduced sexual recidivism, lowering the risk of rearrest for a new sex offense by 88%. In addition, MnCOSA significantly decreased all four measures of general recidivism, with reductions ranging in size from 49 to 57%. As a result of the reduction in recidivism, findings from the cost–benefit analysis reveal the program has generated an estimated $2 million in costs avoided to the state, resulting in a benefit of $40,923 per participant. For every dollar spent on MnCOSA, the program has yielded an estimated benefit of $3.73. Although difficult to implement, the CoSA model is a cost-effective intervention for sex offenders that could also be applied to other correctional populations with a high risk of violent recidivism.
25 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, a systematic review and meta-analysis of the evidence base for the effectiveness of specialized treatment programs for juvenile sex offenders (JSOs) is presented, focusing on studies of relatively high methodological quality.
Abstract: Specialized treatment programs for juvenile sex offenders (JSOs) are commonly used in juvenile justice systems. Despite their popularity, the evidence base for the effectiveness of these specialized programs is limited in both scope and quality. This systematic review and meta-analysis updates previous meta-analyses while focusing on studies of relatively high methodological quality. A vigorous literature search guided by explicit inclusion criteria was conducted. Descriptive and statistical information for each eligible study was coded independently by two coders and disagreements resolved by consensus. Odds ratio effect sizes were computed for sexual recidivism and general recidivism outcomes. Mean effect sizes and their heterogeneity were examined with both fixed and random effects meta-analysis. Only eight eligible studies were located, seven of which were quasi-experiments. The mean effect size for the seven studies reporting sexual recidivism favored treatment but was not statistically significant (OR = 0.74, 95% CI 0.40, 1.36). The mean effect size for general recidivism was significant and also favored treatment (OR = 0.58, 95% CI 0.42, 0.81). Remarkably little methodologically credible research has been conducted on specialized programs for JSOs despite their prevalence. The best available evidence does not support a confident conclusion that they are more effective for reducing sexual recidivism than general treatment as usual in juvenile justice systems. Future research should not only use randomized designs but should also distinguish generalist offenders who are at low risk of sexual recidivism from specialist offenders who are at higher risk of committing future sexual offenses.
22 citations
TL;DR: This article investigated the impact of work shift and fatigue on officers' responses during simulated interactions with citizens using a quasi-experimental design, participants responded to multiple branching scenarios in a laboratory-housed use-of-force simulator, each scenario had the potential to end peaceably or turn deadly, depending on how the officers responded.
Abstract: This study investigated the impact of work shift and fatigue on officers’ responses during simulated interactions with citizens. Using a quasi-experimental design, participants (n = 50) responded to multiple branching scenarios in a laboratory-housed use-of-force simulator. Each scenario had the potential to end peaceably or turn deadly, depending on how the officers responded. Officers who worked across four patrol shifts were tested on two occasions—after five consecutive shifts and again 72 h after completing their last shift. Day-shift officers were less fatigued (measured using the Psychomotor Vigilance Test) than night-shift officers (f = 44.411; df = 1, 90; p < 0.001). Furthermore, officers were more fatigued when they were tested at the end of their work week than after 72 h off-duty (f = 12.030; df = 1, 90; p < 0.001). In the simulator, officers from the day shift were more likely to respond in ways that engineered cooperative outcomes (f = 4.81; df = 3, 549; p < 0.01). These findings offer insight into how shift work and fatigue influence police–citizen interactions. Implications for de-escalation and procedural justice in policing are discussed.
19 citations
TL;DR: The authors investigated the role of self-selection in an evaluation of the impact of a focused deterrence notification meeting on subsequent arrests and found that subjects who attended the notification meeting were less likely than those who did not receive treatment to be arrested over the following 17 months.
Abstract: This study investigated the role of self-selection in an evaluation of the impact of a focused deterrence notification meeting on subsequent arrests. We conducted a randomized controlled study that randomly assigned probationers and parolees to a treatment group asked to attend a focused deterrence notification meeting and a control group that was not asked to attend the meeting. A sizable proportion of the treatment group did not attend the meeting. We estimated intent-to-treat, average treatment, and local average treatment models to evaluate the effect of attending the notification meeting on future arrests and the effect of self-selection on the results. Subjects who attended the notification meeting were less likely than those who did not receive treatment to be arrested over the following 17 months. The results were not significantly affected by selection effects. Future evaluations of focused deterrence and related criminal justice interventions should be based on randomized controlled research designs that address selection effects on the outcome.
TL;DR: This article found that writers of violent rap lyrics are perceived more negatively than writers who pen identical country and heavy metal lyrics, and that songwriter race matters; however, when race information was not provided, participants who inferred the songwriter was Black judged him more negatively.
Abstract: In criminal cases, prosecutors treat defendant-authored rap lyrics as an admission of guilt rather than as art or entertainment. Do negative stereotypes about rap music shape jurors’ attitudes about the defendant, unfairly influencing outcomes? Replicating and extending previous research (Fischoff Journal of Applied Social Psychology, 29(4), 795–805, 1999; Fried Journal of Applied Social Psychology, 26(23), 2135–2146, 1996; Dunbar et al. Public Policy, and Law, 22(3), 280–292, 2016), the current study begins to address these questions. Using an experimental approach, participants were presented with music lyrics and asked to make judgments about the person who wrote the lyrics. All participants read the same lyrics but were told they were from a country, heavy metal, or rap song, depending upon the condition into which they were randomly assigned. Again using random assignment, participants were provided with information about the race of the songwriter in a photo of a young man. Finally, participants were tasked with judging the character of the songwriter, including traits such as his violent nature and criminal disposition. We find that writers of violent “rap” lyrics are perceived more negatively than writers who pen identical country and heavy metal lyrics. We also find that songwriter race matters; no differences in judgments were detected between the White and Black songwriters; however, when race information was not provided, participants who inferred the songwriter was Black judged him more negatively than participants who inferred he was White. These findings have implications for racial disparities in the criminal justice system.
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors test whether altering messages concerning the presentation (i.e., criminal justice actor experience vs. summary of scientific findings) or nature of criminological research findings (e.g., lack of crime control effect vs. collateral consequences) regarding the (in)efficacy of sex offender residence restrictions would subsequently affect public support for this policy.
Abstract: This short report tests whether altering messages concerning the presentation (i.e., criminal justice actor experience vs. summary of scientific findings) or nature of criminological research findings (i.e., lack of crime control effect vs. collateral consequences) regarding the (in)efficacy of sex offender residence restrictions (SORR) would subsequently affect public support for this policy. The experimental conditions were presented in a factorial survey delivered to a national online panel, which was subsequently matched to a sampling frame representative of US adults on the basis of gender, age, race, education, ideology, and political interest (N = 970). Analysis of variance was used to estimate the impact of the experimental manipulations on SORR opposition. Support for SORR was high across all experimental conditions, and no manipulations were statistically associated with variation in opposition to the policy. The results support limited previous research suggesting that the public would continue to support SORR even in the lack of evidence to its effectiveness. This research suggests that altering the presenter or nature of research evidence subsequently produces no opinion change, at least in the form that was executed here. Further research on the mechanisms underlying the recalcitrance of SORR support is necessary.
TL;DR: To the extent that pilot results can be validated and replicated in a full-scale implementation of the MOVE program, policies that provide greater access to housing assistance for formerly incarcerated individuals may yield substantial public safety benefits, particularly housing opportunities located far away from former neighborhoods.
Abstract: This article provides a description and preliminary assessment of the Maryland Opportunities through Vouchers Experiment (MOVE), a randomized housing mobility program for former prisoners designed to test whether residential relocation far away from former neighborhoods, incentivized through the provision of a housing subsidy, can yield reductions in recidivism. The MOVE program was implemented as a randomized controlled trial. Participants were recruited from four different Maryland prisons and randomly assigned to experimental groups. In the first iteration of the experiment, treatment group participants received 6 months of free housing away from their home jurisdiction and control group participants received free housing back in their home jurisdiction. In the second iteration of the experiment, the treatment group remained the same and the control condition was redesigned to represent the status quo and did not receive free housing. Analyses were conducted of one-year rearrest rates. With respect to reductions in recidivism, pilot results suggest that there is some benefit to moving and a benefit to receiving free housing. Rearrest was lower among the treatment group of movers than the non-movers, and was also lower for non-movers who received free housing versus non-movers who did not receive housing. To the extent that pilot results can be validated and replicated in a full-scale implementation of the MOVE program, policies that provide greater access to housing assistance for formerly incarcerated individuals may yield substantial public safety benefits, particularly housing opportunities located far away from former neighborhoods.
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors evaluated the impact of a place-based police-directed patrol intervention on violent crime in Flint, Michigan, USA, using a synthetic control method calibrated a set of weights to match the intervention hot spots to counterfactuals from Flint and Detroit.
Abstract: This research evaluates the impact of an implementation of a place-based police-directed patrol intervention—originally based on the Data Driven Approaches to Crime and Traffic Safety (DDACTS) model—on violent crime in Flint, Michigan, USA. We utilize recent advances in synthetic control methods to implement a retrospective quasi-experimental design across seven separate intervention areas, producing a counterfactual estimate of what would have happened to violent crime had the intervention never been implemented. We use survey weight calibration to produce counterfactual intervention areas using comparison block groups in Flint, and account for treatment diffusion by using comparison block groups from Detroit. The synthetic control method calibrated a set of weights to exactly match the intervention hot spots to counterfactuals from Flint and Detroit. Although basic trend analyses suggested declines in violent crime in the treatment areas, the synthetic controls raised questions about treatment effects. Specifically, the Flint comparison revealed an unexpected increase in aggravated assaults associated with the intervention, whereas the Detroit comparison suggested a similar effect but also possible reduction in robberies. This evaluation presents mixed findings regarding the effect of the intervention on violent crime. Inconsistent program effects may be attributable to incongruences between the program as implemented and the prescribed DDACTS model on which it was based. The findings also suggest the need for future research to investigate potential differential effects of directed patrol on specific types of violent crime. The synthetic control method provides a powerful means for counterfactual estimation in retrospective evaluations.
TL;DR: Although not identical in magnitude, the results echo those found by Paternoster et al. (2013): Even a brief exposure to a previously unknown deviant peer increases the amount of deviant behavior in young adults.
Abstract: This study is a replication of a study examining the causal impact of a brief exposure to deviant peers on own deviant behavior, ie, Paternoster et al (Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency, 50:476–503, 2013) This study retested this design using different monetary incentives and a female deviant peer A total of 69 university students (61% female) from the Netherlands participated in this laboratory-based study (Mage = 2064; SD = 200) under the facade of a study on individual differences predicting memory recall Participants could earn up to 10 euros All participants had the opportunity to cheat to illegitimately earn more money (deviancy) Participants in the experimental condition were exposed to a deviant peer who verbalized her intention to cheat, justified this behavior, and then visibly cheated on the memory recall task Although participants in both conditions engaged in some deviancy, the brief exposure to a deviant peer significantly increased the amount of deviancy compared to participants who were not exposed to a deviant peer These results were consistent after controlling for different demographic and theoretical control variables that predict deviancy Although not identical in magnitude, our results echo those found by Paternoster et al (2013): Even a brief exposure to a previously unknown deviant peer increases the amount of deviant behavior in young adults Future research should examine factors predicting the susceptibility to (different types and thresholds of) deviant peer influence
TL;DR: This paper examined the influence of being wrongfully convicted of a race stereotypic-consistent crime on people's judgments of exonerees' culpability and willingness to support reintegration programs.
Abstract: People are hesitant to fully support reintegration efforts (e.g., opportunities to receive psychological counseling, career counseling, job training, housing assistance, educational opportunities, financial compensation) to help exonerees wrongfully convicted of a crime. However, underlying reasons motivating people’s hesitancy remain unaddressed. This research examined the influence of being wrongfully convicted of a race stereotypic-consistent crime on people’s judgments of exonerees’ culpability and willingness to support reintegration programs. Using an experimental design, participants were randomly assigned to read a news story that depicted an African-American or White male who was exonerated after being wrongfully convicted of assault or embezzlement. Participants then offered their culpability judgments (i.e., their belief in the exoneree’s guilt and confidence in that belief) and willingness to support reintegration services. Participants were less confident of the exoneree’s innocence and less supportive of psychological counseling services when the exoneree was a White, compared to African-American, male wrongfully convicted of the race stereotypic-consistent crime of embezzlement. An exploratory conditional mediation analysis indicated that less confidence in the exoneree’s innocence after being wrongfully convicted of a race stereotypic-consistent crime was, in turn, associated with people’s hesitancy to support psychological counseling for the exoneree. Basic and applied implications to overcome people’s hesitancy to support reintegration efforts for exonerees are discussed.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors highlight the importance of documenting the step-by-step processes used for the selection of comparison areas when evaluating a community-level intervention that targets a large-scale community.
Abstract: We highlight the importance of documenting the step-by-step processes used for the selection of comparison areas when evaluating a community-level intervention that targets a large-scale community. We demonstrate the proposed method using a propensity score matching framework for an impact analysis of the Cure Violence Public Health Model in Philadelphia. To select comparison communities, propensity score models are run using different levels of aggregation to define the intervention site. We discuss the trade-offs made. We find wide variation in documentation and explanation in the extant literature of the methods used to select comparison communities. The size of the unit of analysis at which a community is measured complicates the decision processes, and in turn, can affect the validity of the counterfactual. It is important to carefully consider the unit of analysis for measurement of comparison communities. Assessing the geographic clustering of matched communities to mirror that of the treated community holds conceptual appeal and represents a strategy to consider when evaluating community-level interventions taking place at a large scale. Regardless of the final decisions made in the selection of the counterfactual, the field could benefit from more systematic diagnostic tools that document and guide the steps and decisions along the way, and ask: “could there have been another way of doing each step, and what difference would this have made?” Overall, across community-level evaluations that utilize quasi-experimental designs, documentation of the counterfactual selection process will provide a more fine-grained understanding of causal inference.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors evaluate the effect of emergency winter homeless shelters on property crimes in the nearby communities using the variation in timing and placement of the shelters, and contrast crime rates in the surrounding areas when the shelters are open and closed.
Abstract: To evaluate the effect of emergency winter homeless shelters on property crimes in the nearby communities. Every winter between 2009 and 2016, the City of Vancouver, Canada opened shelters to protect the homeless from harsh winter conditions. The city opened 19 shelters, but only five to nine of them were open in any one winter. Using the variation in timing and placement of the shelters, we contrast crime rates in the surrounding areas when the shelters are open and closed. The presence of a shelter appears to cause property crime to increase by 56% within 100 m of that shelter, with thefts from vehicles, other thefts, and vandalism driving the increase. However, when a homeless shelter opened, rates of breaking and entering commercial establishments were 34% lower within 100 m of that shelter. The observed effects are concentrated close to shelters, within 400 m, and dissipate beyond 400 m. Consistent with a causal effect, we find a decreasing effect of shelters with increasing distance from the shelter. While homeless shelters are a critical social service, in Vancouver, they appear to impact property crime in the surrounding community. Shelters may warrant greater security to control property crime, but the data suggest that any increase in security need not extend beyond 400 m, about two to three blocks, from the shelters.
TL;DR: In this article, the effect of bike-sharing station implementation on robbery occurrence across weekly, biweekly, and monthly observations was estimated using repeated measures multi-level logistic regression models.
Abstract: To examine if the implementation of bike-sharing stations is linked to robbery occurrence in micro-level street corner units in Cincinnati, OH, USA. Propensity score matching was used to select comparison street corner units. The effect of bike-sharing station implementation on robbery occurrence across weekly, biweekly, and monthly observations was estimated using repeated measures multi-level logistic regression models. Bike-sharing stations did not statistically significantly link to robbery occurrence in immediate or nearby street corner units after implementation. Numerous explanations consistent with Crime Pattern Theory may explain the null effect of bike-sharing stations on robbery occurrence. Future research should continue to examine how changes in the urban backcloth, such as bike-sharing stations, impact geographic crime patterns.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors examined the effect of police consolidation in Compton, California, and found that the change in police services may correspond with differences in crime solved and offenses observed.
Abstract: The utility of police consolidation, and in particular police contracting of services, has received widespread attention in academic and practitioner circles. However, the bulk of empirical research centers on potential fiduciary benefits; only limited scholarship has explored the possibility that changes in police services may correspond with differences in crimes solved and offenses observed. To address this gap, we examine consolidation in police services in a historically high crime, disadvantaged urban setting (Compton, California), which began contracting with the Los Angeles County Sheriff’s Department (LACSD) after the closure of Compton Police Department in 2000. Independent samples difference in means tests are used to examine variations in crime clearance rates prior to and following the transition in Compton. Group-based trajectory analysis combined with difference-in-difference regression estimation is used to assess changes in criminal offenses while minimizing selection differences in comparison settings. With the exception of homicide, clearance rates for six Part I crimes experienced statistically significant improvements in Compton’s post-contractual period. Additionally, while the vast majority of Part I offenses remained stable during the transition to LACSD policing, burglary crime rates experienced a statistically significant and sustained decline, net of controls. A primary concern with police contracting centers on a lack of local police control, disconnect between local needs and actual services provided, and the potential for backlash related to a reduction in the quality of police services. Our findings from Compton suggest that contracting with a well-resourced agency experienced in police consolidation has the ability to maintain and, in some circumstances, improve the quality of law enforcement services.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors examined the effectiveness of the High Risk Revocation Reduction (HRRR) program, a reentry program designed to reduce recidivism among offenders released from Minnesota state prisons.
Abstract: This study examines the effectiveness of the High Risk Revocation Reduction (HRRR) program, a reentry program designed to reduce recidivism among offenders released from Minnesota state prisons. Adult male release violators were randomly assigned to a treatment group that received supplemental case planning and access to community service and programs, or to a control group that received standard case management. Survival analysis was used to examine rearrest, reconviction, reincarceration for a new offense, and supervised release revocation. The results of Cox regression models showed that participation in HRRR significantly reduced the risk of rearrest but had no effect on the other measures of recidivism. The results provide limited support for the program, although its effectiveness appeared to decline during the second phase of implementation. HRRR also reduced costs; however, the estimated benefits were not robust across all sensitivity analyses.
TL;DR: In this paper, an independent re-analysis of the impact of the 1996 Australian firearm law on firearm mortality is presented, which accounts for underlying stochastic trends and introduces a new empirical method that tests whether their empirical strategy can actually identify a causal effect that is also useful for panel analyses.
Abstract: Many studies utilize time series methods to identify causal effects without accounting for an underlying time trend. We show that accounting for trends changes the conclusions in the study of Chapman et al. (JAMA, 316(3), 291–299, 2016), who evaluated the impact of the Australian firearm law in 1996. We also introduce a new empirical method that tests whether their empirical strategy can actually identify a causal effect that is also useful for panel analyses. We use national data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, assembled in annual counts of: total firearm deaths, firearm suicides, and firearm homicides. These data are used in an independent re-analysis of the impact of the 1996 Australian firearm law that accounts for underlying stochastic trends. We then estimate a series of artificially created interruptions using interrupted times series analysis in a time frame before 1996, to test for changes in the slope of mortality across several years prior to the actual regulatory changes. This tests whether the empirical model produces effects in years other than the year of the intervention, thereby testing if the results can simply be replicated at random using other interruption years. Controlling for stochastic trends produces less statistical evidence of the impact of the firearm law on firearm mortality than previously reported by Chapman et al. (JAMA, 316(3), 291–299, 2016). Introducing artificial interruptions in 1990 through 1995 produces statistically significant decreases in all firearm-related mortality measures well above the expected type 1 error. Overall, 19 out of the 36 artificial interruption models we tested were found to be statistically significant, suggesting that the empirical model can be implemented in multiple non-intervention years with results similar to the true 1996 interruption year. Current evidence showing decreases in firearm mortality after the 1996 Australian national firearm law relies on an empirical model that may have limited ability to identify the true effects of the law.
TL;DR: The authors used propensity score matching to investigate the extent to which convictions and/or incarcerations in the first two decades of life were related to adverse mental health during middle adulthood, finding that there were no significant differences in mental health between those involved in the criminal justice system and those without such involvement.
Abstract: While many criminological theories posit causal hypotheses, many studies fail to use methods that adequately address the three criteria of causality. This is particularly important when assessing the impact of criminal justice involvement on later outcomes. Due to practical and ethical concerns, it is challenging to randomize criminal sanctions, so quasi-experimental methods such as propensity score matching are often used to approximate a randomized design. Based on longitudinal data from the Cambridge Study in Delinquent Development, the current study used propensity score matching to investigate the extent to which convictions and/or incarcerations in the first two decades of life were related to adverse mental health during middle adulthood. Propensity scores were utilized to match those with and without criminal justice involvement on a wide range of risk factors for offending. The results indicated that there were no significant differences in mental health between those involved in the criminal justice system and those without such involvement. The results did not detect a relationship between justice system involvement and later mental health suggesting that the consequences of criminal justice involvement may only be limited to certain domains.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors report the findings of a quasi-experimental evaluation of the impact of residential halfway houses (HHs) on public safety in the immediate vicinity of the facilities.
Abstract: This article reports the findings of a quasi-experimental evaluation of the impact of residential halfway houses (HHs) on public safety in the immediate vicinity of the facilities. Instead of focusing on recidivism reduction or cost effectiveness, as is common, outcome measures for this study are limited to the impact on community crime rates, here defined as offenses committed within 1/8 and 1/4 mi radii around a subject facility. A set of fixed effect Poisson regression models were employed to assess the changes in monthly crime counts associated with the opening or closing of an HH (N = 19). A second difference-in-differences analysis (DiD) compares HHs that ceased operation to HHs that remained consistently open for the duration of the study period. A series of robustness checks were conducted. We find the presence of an active HH is associated with an increase in crime within the immediate vicinity. We identify significant increases in monthly counts of overall crimes reported to law enforcement, as well as in counts for specific crimes of violence, including assaults and robberies with a firearm; property offenses, such as burglary; and in minor and misdemeanor offenses. A closing of an HH is associated with a decrease in reported crimes. The location of a community-based correctional facility can have a significant and negative impact on public health, largely through decreased levels of local public safety. Evaluations of residential correctional programs should include indicators of community-level impact in addition to individual-level measures of recidivism, particularly when such programs are clustered in at-risk or vulnerable communities.