Showing papers in "Journal of Glaciology in 2019"

GlacierMIP - A model intercomparison of global-scale glacier mass-balance models and projections

Abstract: Global-scale 21st-century glacier mass change projections from six published global glacier models are systematically compared as part of the Glacier Model Intercomparison Project. In total 214 pro ...

Glacial lake evolution and glacier–lake interactions in the Poiqu River basin, central Himalaya, 1964–2017

Abstract: Despite previous studies, glacier–lake interactions and future lake development in the Poiqu River basin, central Himalaya, are still not well understood. We mapped glacial lakes, glaciers, their frontal positions and ice flow from optical remote sensing data, and calculated glacier surface elevation change from digital terrain models. During 1964–2017, the total glacial-lake area increased by ~110%. Glaciers retreated with an average rate of ~1.4 km2 a−1 between 1975 and 2015. Based on rapid area expansion (>150%), and information from previous studies, eight lakes were considered to be potentially dangerous glacial lakes. Corresponding lake-terminating glaciers showed an overall retreat of 6.0 ± 1.4 to 26.6 ± 1.1 m a−1 and accompanying lake expansion. The regional mean glacier elevation change was −0.39 ± 0.13 m a−1 while the glaciers associated with the eight potentially dangerous lakes lowered by −0.71 ± 0.05 m a−1 from 1974 to 2017. The mean ice flow speed of these glaciers was ~10 m a−1 from 2013 to 2017; about double the mean for the entire study area. Analysis of these data along with climate observations suggests that ice melting and calving processes play the dominant role in driving lake enlargement. Modelling of future lake development shows where new lakes might emerge and existing lakes could expand with projected glacial recession.

A general theory of glacier surges

Abstract: We present the first general theory of glacier surging that includes both temperate and polythermal glacier surges, based on coupled mass and enthalpy budgets. Enthalpy (in the form of thermal energy and water) is gained at the glacier bed from geothermal heating plus frictional heating (expenditure of potential energy) as a consequence of ice flow. Enthalpy losses occur by conduction and loss of meltwater from the system. Because enthalpy directly impacts flow speeds, mass and enthalpy budgets must simultaneously balance if a glacier is to maintain a steady flow. If not, glaciers undergo out-of-phase mass and enthalpy cycles, manifest as quiescent and surge phases. We illustrate the theory using a lumped element model, which parameterizes key thermodynamic and hydrological processes, including surface-to-bed drainage and distributed and channelized drainage systems. Model output exhibits many of the observed characteristics of polythermal and temperate glacier surges, including the association of surging behaviour with particular combinations of climate (precipitation, temperature), geometry (length, slope) and bed properties (hydraulic conductivity). Enthalpy balance theory explains a broad spectrum of observed surging behaviour in a single framework, and offers an answer to the wider question of why the majority of glaciers do not surge.

Karakoram geodetic glacier mass balances between 2008 and 2016: persistence of the anomaly and influence of a large rock avalanche on Siachen Glacier

Abstract: Karakoram glaciers experienced balanced or slightly positive mass budgets since at least the 1970s. Here, we provide an update on the state of balance of Central and Eastern Karakoram glaciers (12 000 km2) between 2008 and 2016 by differencing DEMs derived from satellite optical images. The mass budget of Central Karakoram glaciers was slightly positive (0.12 ± 0.14 m w.e. a−1) while eastern Karakoram glaciers lost mass (−0.24 ± 0.12 m w.e. a−1). The glacier-wide mass balances of surge-type and nonsurge-type glaciers were not statistically different. Our elevation change data also depict the effect of a > 100 Mm3 rock avalanche on Siachen Glacier ablation area in September 2010. It covered a 4 km2 area with a thick debris layer that unexpectedly, led to locally enhanced glacier mass loss during the following years. Enhanced melt opened a > 100 m deep 2 km2 depression and contributed to 6% of the mass loss of Siachen Glacier from 2010 to 2016 (−0.39 m w.e. a−1). We hypothesize that sub- or englacial melt may be responsible for this intriguing behaviour. This study contributes to a better knowledge of the regional pattern of the Karakoram anomaly and of the influence of rock avalanches on glacier mass changes.

Reanalysis of the US Geological Survey Benchmark Glaciers: Long-Term Insight into Climate Forcing of Glacier Mass Balance

Abstract: Mountain glaciers integrate climate processes to provide an unmatched signal of regional climate forcing. However, extracting the climate signal via intercomparison of regional glacier mass-balance records can be problematic when methods for extrapolating and calibrating direct glaciological measurements are mixed or inconsistent. To address this problem, we reanalyzed and compared long-term mass-balance records from the US Geological Survey Benchmark Glaciers. These five glaciers span maritime and continental climate regimes of the western United States and Alaska. Each glacier exhibits cumulative mass loss since the mid-20th century, with average rates ranging from −0.58 to −0.30 m w.e. a−1. We produced a set of solutions using different extrapolation and calibration methods to inform uncertainty estimates, which range from 0.22 to 0.44 m w.e. a−1. Mass losses are primarily driven by increasing summer warming. Continentality exerts a stronger control on mass loss than latitude. Similar to elevation, topographic shading, snow redistribution and glacier surface features often exert important mass-balance controls. The reanalysis underscores the value of geodetic calibration to resolve mass-balance magnitude, as well as the irreplaceable value of direct measurements in contributing to the process-based understanding of glacier mass balance.

Supraglacial ice cliffs and ponds on debris-covered glaciers: spatio-temporal distribution and characteristics

Abstract: Ice cliffs and ponds on debris-covered glaciers have received increased attention due to their role in amplifying local melt. However, very few studies have looked at these features on the catchment scale to determine their patterns and changes in space and time. We have compiled a detailed inventory of cliffs and ponds in the Langtang catchment, central Himalaya, from six high-resolution satellite orthoimages and DEMs between 2006 and 2015, and a historic orthophoto from 1974. Cliffs cover between 1.4% (± 0.4%) in the dry and 3.4% (± 0.9%) in the wet seasons and ponds between 0.6% (± 0.1%) and 1.6% (± 0.3%) of the total debris-covered tongues. We find large variations between seasons, as cliffs and ponds tend to grow in the wetter monsoon period, but there is no obvious trend in total area over the study period. The inventory further shows that cliffs are predominately north-facing irrespective of the glacier flow direction. Both cliffs and ponds appear in higher densities several hundred metres from the terminus in areas where tributaries reach the main glacier tongue. On the largest glacier in the catchment ~10% of all cliffs and ponds persisted over nearly a decade.

No significant mass loss in the glaciers of Astore Basin (North-Western Himalaya), between 1999 and 2016

Abstract: Although glaciers in High Mountain Asia produce an enormous amount of water used by downstream populations, they remain poorly observed in the field. This study presents a geodetic mass balance of the glaciers in the Astore Basin (with differential GPS (dGPS) measurements on Harcho glacier) between 1999 and 2016. Changes near the terminus of Harcho glacier (below 3800 m a.s.l.) featured heterogeneous surface elevation changes, whereas the middle section shows the most negative changes. The surface elevation changes were positive above 4200 m a.s.l. The average annual mass balance was −0.08 ± 0.07 m w.e. a−1 derived from a dGPS and DEM comparison whereas Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer DEM-based results show a slightly positive, that is 0.03 ± 0.24 m w.e. a−1 in the same period. In contrast, the terminus indicates a substantial retreat of ~368 m (4.5 m a−1) between 1934 and 2016. The average mass balance of 19 glaciers (>2 km2) covering ~60% of the total glaciers in the Basin exhibit no net mass loss in the period of 2000−2016 and follow a pattern similar to adjacent Karakoram glaciers.

Summer surface melt thins Petermann Gletscher Ice Shelf by enhancing channelized basal melt

Abstract: Increasing ocean and air temperatures have contributed to the removal of floating ice shelves from several Greenland outlet glaciers; however, the specific contribution of these external forcings remains poorly understood. Here we use atmospheric, oceanographic, and glaciological time series data from the ice shelf of Petermann Gletscher, NW Greenland to quantify the forcing of the ocean and atmosphere on the ice shelf at a site ~16 km from the grounding line within a large sub-ice-shelf channel. Basal melt rates here indicate a strong seasonality, rising from a winter mean of 2 m yr-1 to a maximum of 80 m yr-1 during the summer melt season. This increase in basal melt rates confirms the direct link between summer atmospheric warming around Greenland and enhanced ocean-forced melting of its remaining ice shelves. We attribute this enhanced melting to increased discharge of subglacial runoff into the ocean at the grounding line, which strengthens under-ice currents and drives a greater ocean heat flux toward the ice base.

Ground-based remote-sensing techniques for diagnosis of the current state and recent evolution of the Monte Perdido Glacier, Spanish Pyrenees

Abstract: This work combines very detailed measurements from terrestrial laser scanner (TLS), ground-based interferometry radar (GB-SAR) and ground-penetrating radar (GPR) to diagnose current conditions and to analyse the recent evolution of the Monte Perdido Glacier in the Spanish Pyrenees from 2011 to 2017. Thus, this is currently one of the best monitored small glacier (<0.5 km2) worldwide. The evolution of the glacier surface was surveyed with a TLS evidencing an important decline of 6.1 ± 0.3 m on average, with ice losses mainly concentrated over 3 years (2012, 2015 and 2017). Ice loss is unevenly distributed throughout the study period, with 10–15 m thinning in some areas while unchanged areas in others. GB-SAR revealed that areas with higher ice losses are those that are currently with no or very low ice motion. In contrast, sectors located beneath the areas with less ice loss are those that still exhibit noticeable ice movement (average 2–4.5 cm d─1 in summer, and annual movement of 9.98 ma─1 from ablation stakes data). GPR informed that ice thickness was generally <30 m, though locally 30–50 m. Glacier thinning is still accelerating and will lead to extinction of the glacier over the next 50 years.

The geodetic mass balance of Eyjafjallajökull ice cap for 1945–2014: processing guidelines and relation to climate

Abstract: Mass-balance measurements of Icelandic glaciers are sparse through the 20th century. However, the large archive of stereo images available allows estimates of glacier-wide mass balance ($, mostly caused by the April 2010 eruption. The reference-surface mass balances correlate with summer temperature and winter precipitation, and linear regression accounts for 80% of the mass-balance variability, yielding a static sensitivity of mass balance to summer temperature and winter precipitation of − 2.1 ± 0.4 m w.e.a–1K–1 and 0.5 ± 0.3 m w.e.a–1 (10%)–1, respectively. This study serves as a template that can be used to estimate the mass-balance changes and glaciers' response to climate.

Glacier changes between 1971 and 2016 in the Jankar Chhu Watershed, Lahaul Himalaya, India

Abstract: Glacier changes in the Jankar Chhu Watershed (JCW) of Chandrabhaga (Chenab) basin, Lahaul Himalaya were worked out based on Corona and Sentinel 2A images between 1971 and 2016. The JCW consists of 153 glaciers (>0.02 km2) with a total area of 185.6 ± 3.8 km2 that include 82 glaciers with debris-covered ablation zone, comprising 10.9% of the total glacierized area as in 2016. Change analysis based on Corona (1971), Landsat (2000) and Sentinel 2A (2016) was restricted to 127 glaciers owing to the presence of cloud cover on 26 glaciers in 1971. A subset of glaciers was also mapped using Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM; 1989) image. The total glacier area decreased by 14.7 ± 4.3 km2 (0.3 ± 0.1 km2 a−¹). The number of glaciers in the JCW increased by four between 1971 and 2016 due to fragmentation. More recently (2000–16), recession rate has increased. Clean-ice area decreased by 21.8 ± 3.8 km2 (0.5 ± 0.1 km2 a−¹) while debris-covered ice increased by 7.2 ± 0.4 km2 (0.2 ± 0.01 km2 a−¹). Field observations of select glaciers also support derived recession trend in the JCW. Retreat rates in the JCW have been observed to be much lower than previously reported.

Glacier mass balance over the central Nyainqentanglha Range during recent decades derived from remote-sensing data

Abstract: To obtain information on changes in glacier mass balance in the central Nyainqentanglha Range, a comprehensive study was carried out based on digital-elevation models derived from the 1968 topographic maps, the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission DEM (2000) and TerraSAR-X/TanDEM-X (2013). Glacier area changes between 1968 and 2016 were derived from topographic maps and Landsat OLI images. This showed the area contained 715 glaciers, with an area of 1713.42 ± 51.82 km2, in 2016. Ice cover has been shrinking by 0.68 ± 0.05% a−1 since 1968. The glacier area covered by debris accounted for 11.9% of the total and decreased in the SE–NW directions. Using digital elevation model differencing and differential synthetic aperture radar interferometry, a significant mass loss of 0.46 ± 0.10 m w.e. a−1 has been recorded since 1968; mass losses accelerated from 0.42 ± 0.20 m w.e. a−1 to 0.60 ± 0.20 m w.e. a−1 between 1968–2000 and 2000–2013, with thinning noticeably greater on the debris-covered ice than the clean ice. Surface-elevation changes can be influenced by ice cliffs, as well as debris cover and land- or lake-terminating glaciers. Changes showed spatial and temporal heterogeneity and a substantial correlation with climate warming and decreased precipitation.

Mass balance of Trambau Glacier, Rolwaling region, Nepal Himalaya: in-situ observations, long-term reconstruction and mass-balance sensitivity

Abstract: We conducted a mass-balance study of debris-free Trambau Glacier in the Rolwaling region, Nepal Himalaya, which is accessible to 6000 m a.s.l., to better understand mass-balance processes and the effect of precipitation on these processes on high-elevation Himalayan glaciers. Continuous in situ meteorological and mass-balance observations that spanned the three melt seasons from May 2016 are reported. An energy- and mass-balance model is also applied to evaluate its performance and sensitivity to various climatic conditions. Glacier-wide mass balances ranging from −0.34 ± 0.38 m w.e. in 2016 to −0.82 ± 0.53 m w.e. in 2017/18 are obtained by combining the observations with model results for the areas above the highest stake. The estimated long-term glacier mass balance, which is reconstructed using the ERA-Interim data calibrated with in situ data, is −0.65 ± 0.39 m w.e. a−1 for the 1980–2018 period. A significant correlation with annual precipitation (r = 0.77, p < 0.001) is observed, whereas there is no discernible correlation with summer mean air temperature. The results indicate the continuous mass loss of Trambau Glacier over the last four decades, which contrasts with the neighbouring Mera Glacier in balance.

Glacier bed surveying with helicopter-borne dual-polarization ground-penetrating radar

Abstract: Traditionally, helicopter-borne ground-penetrating radar (GPR) systems are operated with a single pair of bistatic dipole antennas to measure the thickness of glaciers. We demonstrate numerically that the directivity of the radiation pattern of single airborne dipoles do not correspond to an ideal full-space solution if the antennas are employed at typical flight heights. These directionality effects can degrade the quality of the subsurface images significantly, when the GPR antennas are orientated unfavorably. Since an adjustment of the antenna orientation is impractical during flight, we have developed a novel dual-polarization helicopter-borne GPR system consisting of two orthogonal pairs of commercial antennas in broadside configuration. To overcome the image quality deficits of the individual channels, we apply a pseudo-scalar approach in which we combine the data of both polarizations. Results of helicopter-borne GPR surveys on two alpine glaciers in Switzerland reveal more coherent bedrock reflections in the summed data compared with single dipole pair profiles. Generally, the dual-polarization setup is more suitable than a single antenna systems, because it is more versatile and less prone to directional effects caused by the placement of the dipole antennas in relation to undulating subsurface reflectors.

Mass and enthalpy budget evolution during the surge of a polythermal glacier: a test of theory

Abstract: Analysis of a recent surge of Morsnevbreen, Svalbard, is used to test predictions of the enthalpy balance theory of surging. High-resolution time series of velocities, ice thickness and crevasse distribution allow key elements of the enthalpy (internal energy) budget to be quantified for different stages of the surge cycle. During quiescence (1936–1990), velocities were very low, and geothermal heat slowly built-up enthalpy at the bed. Measurable mass transfer and frictional heating began in 1990–2010, then positive frictional heating-velocity feedbacks caused gradual acceleration from 2010 to 2015. Rapid acceleration occurred in summer 2016, when extensive crevassing and positive air temperatures allowed significant surface to bed drainage. The surge front reached the terminus in October 2016, coincident with a drop in velocities. Ice plumes in the fjord are interpreted as discharge of large volumes of supercooled water from the bed. Surge termination was prolonged, however, indicating persistence of an inefficient drainage system. The observations closely match predictions of the theory, particularly build-up of enthalpy from geothermal and frictional heat, and surface meltwater, and the concomitant changes in ice-surface elevation and velocity. Additional characteristics of the surge reflect spatial processes not represented in the model, but can be explained with respect to enthalpy gradients.

Identifying and mapping very small (<0.5 km2) mountain glaciers on coarse to high-resolution imagery

Abstract: Small mountain glaciers are an important part of the cryosphere and tend to respond rapidly to climate warming. Historically, mapping very small glaciers (generally considered to be <0.5 km2) using satellite imagery has often been subjective due to the difficulty in differentiating them from perennial snowpatches. For this reason, most scientists implement minimum size-thresholds (typically 0.01–0.05 km2). Here, we compare the ability of different remote-sensing approaches to identify and map very small glaciers on imagery of varying spatial resolutions (30–0.25 m) and investigate how operator subjectivity influences the results. Based on this analysis, we support the use of a minimum size-threshold of 0.01 km2 for imagery with coarse to medium spatial resolution (30–10 m). However, when mapping on high-resolution imagery (<1 m) with minimal seasonal snow cover, glaciers <0.05 km2 and even <0.01 km2 are readily identifiable and using a minimum threshold may be inappropriate. For these cases, we develop a set of criteria to enable the identification of very small glaciers and classify them as certain, probable or possible. This should facilitate a more consistent approach to identifying and mapping very small glaciers on high-resolution imagery, helping to produce more comprehensive and accurate glacier inventories.

Glacier surges in the north-west West Kunlun Shan inferred from 1972 to 2017 Landsat imagery

Abstract: The West Kunlun Shan lie close to, or are perhaps part of, two significant glaciological phenomena – the High Mountain Asia surge ‘supercluster’ and the Karakoram Anomaly. However, glaciological studies, and particularly surge studies, in the range are limited. Here, we extend the database of known surges in the region using Landsat imagery and cross-correlation feature tracking. We examine 88 glaciers larger than 1 km2 in the Hotan Prefecture of Xinjiang, China, and find evidence of nine surges occurring between 1972 and 2017. Glaciers display low active phase velocities (~0.2–1.5 km a−1) that show seasonal acceleration in the summer, active phase periods as short as 2 years, and build-up and deceleration phases of months--years. Although these observations display characteristics indicative of both the classic hydrological and thermal switch mechanisms, the surging observed displays a close resemblance to that in the adjacent Karakoram ranges. Furthermore, the majority of the surges occur clustered at the end of a decadal-scale warming period, corroborating previously proposed causal links between climate and surging in the Karakoram. We suggest that the two regions should be considered part of one larger system when considering surge dynamics in High Mountain Asia.

Estimation of the total sub-debris ablation from point-scale ablation data on a debris-covered glacier

Abstract: This is the preprint of an article that is under review in the Journal of Glaciology. The abstract is as follows: Glaciological mass balance is computed from point-scale field data at a few ablation stakes that are regressed as a function of elevation, and averaged over the area-elevation distribution of the glacier. This method is contingent on a tight control of elevation on local ablation. On debris-covered glaciers, systematic and random spatial variations of debris thickness modify ablation rates. A method that takes into account the debris-thickness variability in extrapolating point-scale ablation data may be more accurate on these glaciers. We propose and test a methGlaciological mass balance is computed from point-scale field data at a few ablation stakes that are regressed as a function of elevation, and averaged over the area-elevation distribution of the glacier. This method is contingent on a tight control of elevation on local ablation. On debris-covered glaciers, systematic and random spatial variations of debris thickness modify ablation rates. A method that takes into account the debris-thickness variability in extrapolating point-scale ablation data may be more accurate on these glaciers. We propose and test a method where stake data are interpolated as a function of debris-thickness alone, and averaged over the observed debris-thickness distribution at different parts of the glacier. We apply this method to compute sub-debris ablation rate on Satopanth Glacier (Central Himalaya) utilising about a thousand ablation measurements at a network of up to 56 stakes during 2015--2017. We compare our results with that from the standard glaciological method. The uncertainties in both the estimates due to the corresponding uncertainties in measurement of ablation and debris-thickness distribution, and that due to interpolation procedures are estimated using Monte Carlo methods. Possible biases due to finite number of stakes used are investigated, and net specific balance of Satopanth glacier is computed.od where stake data are interpolated as a function of debris-thickness alone, and averaged over the observed debris-thickness distribution at different parts of the glacier. We apply this method to compute sub-debris ablation rate on Satopanth Glacier (Central Himalaya) utilising about a thousand ablation measurements at a network of up to 56 stakes during 2015--2017. We compare our results with that from the standard glaciological method. The uncertainties in both the estimates due to the corresponding uncertainties in measurement of ablation and debris-thickness distribution, and that due to interpolation procedures are estimated using Monte Carlo methods. Possible biases due to finite number of stakes used are investigated, and net specific balance of Satopanth glacier is computed.

Future retreat of Great Aletsch Glacier

Abstract: We model the future evolution of the largest glacier of the European Alps – Great Aletsch Glacier, Switzerland – during the 21st century. For that purpose we use a detailed three-dimensional model, which combines full Stokes ice dynamics and surface mass balance forced with the most recent climate projections (CH2018), as well as with climate data of the last decades. As a result, all CH2018 climate scenarios yield a major glacier retreat: Results range from a loss of 60% of today's ice volume by 2100 for a moderate CO2 emission scenario (RCP2.6) being in line with the Paris agreement to an almost complete wastage of the ice for the most extreme emission scenario (RCP8.5). Our model results also provide evidence that half of the mass loss is already committed under the climate conditions of the last decade.

The sensitivity of Northern Hemisphere ice sheets to atmospheric forcing during the last glacial cycle using PMIP3 models

Abstract: The evolution of Northern Hemisphere ice sheets through the last glacial cycle is simulated with the glacial index method by using the climate forcing from one General Circulation Model, COSMOS. By comparing the simulated results to geological reconstructions, we first show that the modelled climate is capable of capturing the main features of the ice-sheet evolution. However, large deviations exist, likely due to the absence of nonlinear interactions between ice sheet and other climate components. The model uncertainties of the climate forcing are examined using the output from nine climate models from the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase III. The results show a large variability in simulated ice sheets between the different models. We find that the ice-sheet extent pattern resembles summer surface air temperature pattern at the Last Glacial Maximum, confirming the dominant role of surface ablation process for high-latitude Northern Hemisphere ice sheets. This study shows the importance of the upper boundary condition for ice-sheet modelling, and implies that careful constraints on climate output is essential for simulating realistic glacial Northern Hemisphere ice sheets.

Non-linear glacier response to calving events, Jakobshavn Isbræ, Greenland

Abstract: Jakobshavn Isbrae, a tidewater glacier that produces some of Greenland's largest icebergs and highest speeds, reached record-high flow rates in 2012 (Joughin and others, 2014). We use terrestrial radar interferometric observations from August 2012 to characterize the events that led to record-high flow. We find that the highest speeds occurred in response to a small calving retreat, while several larger calving events produced negligible changes in glacier speed. This non-linear response to calving events suggests the terminus was close to flotation and therefore highly sensitive to terminus position. Our observations indicate that a glacier's response to calving is a consequence of two competing feedbacks: (1) an increase in strain rates that leads to dynamic thinning and faster flow, thereby promoting destabilization, and (2) an increase in flow rates that advects thick ice toward the terminus and promotes restabilization. The competition between these feedbacks depends on temporal and spatial variations in the glacier's proximity to flotation. This study highlights the importance of dynamic thinning and advective processes on tidewater glacier stability, and further suggests the latter may be limiting the current retreat due to the thick ice that occupies Jakobshavn Isbrae’s retrograde bed.

Surface and basal boundary conditions at the Southern McMurdo and Ross Ice Shelves, Antarctica

Abstract: We derive the surface and basal radar reflectance and backscatter coefficients of the southern McMurdo Ice Shelf (SMIS) and part of the nearby Ross Ice Shelf (RIS), Antarctica, from radar statistical reconnaissance using a 60-MHZ airborne survey. The surface coefficients are further inverted in terms of snow density and roughness, providing a spatial distribution of the processes contributing to the surface boundary conditions. We disentangle the basal coefficients from surface transmission losses, and we provide the basal coherent content, an indicator of the boundary geometric disorder that is also self-corrected from englacial attenuation. The basal radar properties exhibit sharp gradients along specific iso-depths, suggesting an abrupt modification of the ice composition and geometric structure. We interpret this behavior as locations where the pressure-melting point is reached, outlining fields of freezing and melting ice. Basal steps are observed at both SMIS and RIS, suggesting a common geometric expression of widespread basal processes. This technique offers a simultaneous view of both the surface and basal boundary conditions to help investigate the ice-shelf stability, while its application to airborne data significantly improves coverage of the difficult-to-observe ice–ocean boundary. It also provides constraints on thermohaline circulation in ice shelves cavities, which are analogs for ice-covered ocean worlds.

Tracking icebergs with time-lapse photography and sparse optical flow, LeConte Bay, Alaska, 2016-2017

Abstract: We present a workflow to track icebergs in proglacial fjords using oblique time-lapse photos and the Lucas-Kanade optical flow algorithm. We employ the workflow at LeConte Bay, Alaska, where we ran five time-lapse cameras between April 2016 and September 2017, capturing more than 400 000 photos at frame rates of 0.5–4.0 min−1. Hourly to daily average velocity fields in map coordinates illustrate dynamic currents in the bay, with dominant downfjord velocities (exceeding 0.5 m s−1 intermittently) and several eddies. Comparisons with simultaneous Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler (ADCP) measurements yield best agreement for the uppermost ADCP levels (~ 12 m and above), in line with prevalent small icebergs that trace near-surface currents. Tracking results from multiple cameras compare favorably, although cameras with lower frame rates (0.5 min−1) tend to underestimate high flow speeds. Tests to determine requisite temporal and spatial image resolution confirm the importance of high image frame rates, while spatial resolution is of secondary importance. Application of our procedure to other fjords will be successful if iceberg concentrations are high enough and if the camera frame rates are sufficiently rapid (at least 1 min−1 for conditions similar to LeConte Bay).

Light-absorbing impurities in snow cover across Northern Xinjiang, China

Abstract: Light-absorbing impurities (LAIs, e.g. black carbon (BC), organic carbon (OC), mineral dust (MD)) deposited on snow cover reduce albedo and accelerate its melting. Northern Xinjiang (NX) is an arid and semi-arid inland region, where snowmelt leads to frequent floods that have been a serious threat to local ecological security. There is still a lack of quantitative assessments of the effects of LAIs on snowmelt in the region. This study investigates spatial variations of LAIs in snow and its effect on snow albedo, radiative forcing (RF) and snowmelt across NX. Results showed that concentrations of BC, OC (only water-insoluble OC), MD ranged from 32 to 8841 ng g−1, 77 to 8568 ng g−1 and 0.46 to 236 µg g−1, respectively. Weather Research and Forecasting Chemistry model suggested that residential emission was the largest source of BC. Snow, Ice, and Aerosol Radiative modelling showed that the average contribution of BC and MD to snow albedo reduction was 17 and 3%, respectively. RF caused by BC significantly exceeded RF caused by MD. In different scenarios, changes in snow cover duration (SCD) caused by BC and MD decreased by 1.36 ± 0.61 to 6.12 ± 3.38 d. Compared with MD, BC was the main dominant factor in reducing snow albedo and SCD across NX.

Grounding line stability in a regime of low driving and basal stresses

Abstract: The dynamics of a marine ice sheet's grounding lines determine the rate of ice discharge from the grounded part of ice sheet into surrounding oceans. In many locations in West Antarctica ice flows into ice shelves through ice streams experiencing low driving stress. However, existing simple theories of marine ice sheets are developed under the assumption of high basal and driving stress. Here we analyze the grounding line behavior of marine ice streams experiencing low basal shear and driving stress. We find that in this regime, the ice flux at the grounding line is a complex function of the geometry of the ice-stream bed, net accumulation rate and gradient of the net accumulation rate. Our analysis shows that the stability of distinct steady states is determined by the same parameters, suggesting a more complex (in)stability criterion than what is commonly referred to within the context of the ‘marine ice-sheet instability hypothesis’. We also determine characteristic timescales (e-folding time) of ice-sheet configurations perturbed from their steady states. These timescales can be used to determine whether particular configurations can be considered in isolation from other components of the climate system or whether their effects and feedbacks between the ice sheet and the rest of the climate system have to be taken into account.

Response of glacier flow and structure to proglacial lake development and climate at Fjallsjökull, south-east Iceland

Abstract: Over recent decades, the number of outlet glaciers terminating in lakes in Iceland has increased in line with climate warming. The mass-balance changes of these lake-terminating outlet glaciers are sensitive to rising air temperatures, due to altered glacier dynamics and increased surface melt. This study aims to better understand the relationship between proglacial lake development, climate, glacier dynamics and glacier structure at Fjallsjokull, a large, lake-terminating outlet glacier in south-east Iceland. We used satellite imagery to map glacier terminus position and lake extent between 1973 and 2016, and a combination of aerial and satellite imagery to map the structural architecture of the glacier's terminus in 1982, 1994 and 2011. The temporal evolution of ice surface velocities between 1990 and 2018 was calculated using feature tracking. Statistically significant increases in the rate of terminus retreat and lake expansion were identified in 2001, 2009 and 2011. Our surface velocity and structural datasets revealed the development of localised flow ‘corridors’ over time, which conveyed relatively faster flow towards the glacier's terminus. We attribute the overall changes in dynamics and structural architecture at Fjallsjokull to rising air temperatures, but argue that the spatial complexities are driven by glacier specific factors, such as basal topography.

Arctic Ice Ocean Prediction System: evaluating sea-ice forecasts during Xuelong's first trans-Arctic Passage in summer 2017 – CORRIGENDUM

Abstract: In an effort to improve the reliability of Arctic sea-ice predictions, an ensemble-based Arctic Ice Ocean Prediction System (ArcIOPS) has been developed to meet operational demands. The system is based on a regional Arctic configuration of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model. A localized error subspace transform ensemble Kalman filter is used to assimilate the weekly merged CryoSat-2 and Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity sea-ice thickness data together with the daily Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 (AMSR2) sea-ice concentration data. The weather forecasts from the Global Forecast System of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction drive the sea ice–ocean coupled model. The ensemble mean sea-ice forecasts were used to facilitate the Chinese National Arctic Research Expedition in summer 2017. The forecasted sea-ice concentration is evaluated against AMSR2 and Special Sensor Microwave Imager/Sounder sea-ice concentration data. The forecasted sea-ice thickness is compared to the in-situ observations and the Pan-Arctic Ice-Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System. These comparisons show the promising potential of ArcIOPS for operational Arctic sea-ice forecasts. Nevertheless, the forecast bias in the Beaufort Sea calls for a delicate parameter calibration and a better design of the assimilation system.

Ice flow variations at Polar Record Glacier, East Antarctica

Abstract: Relatively little is known about the physical mechanisms that drive the dynamics of the East Antarctic outlet glaciers. Here we conduct a remote-sensing investigation of the Polar Record Glacier (PRG), East Antarctica to analyze its ice flow acceleration, ice front variations and ice surface melting. Ice flow speeds at PRG increased by up to 15% from 2005 to 2015, with substantial interannual fluctuations. The ice velocities also showed seasonal variations, accelerating by up to 9% between September and January. Multiple mechanisms contribute to the observed seasonal variations: the initial acceleration may result from the lost back-stress provided by the sea ice in the austral spring and the later speedup relate to the surface meltwater that leads to weakened ice shelf and shear margins. The sensitivity of the PRG to oceanic forcing is confirmed by comparing the secular ice velocity increases with ocean temperatures. These measurements suggest that the dynamics of East Antarctic ice shelves are sensitive to melt at both the surface and base, at a range of timescales.

Area changes of glaciers on active volcanoes in Latin America between 1986 and 2015 observed from multi-temporal satellite imagery

Abstract: Glaciers on active volcanoes are subject to changes in both climate fluctuations and volcanic activity. Whereas many studies analysed changes on individual volcanoes, this study presents for the first time a comparison of glacier changes on active volcanoes on a continental scale. Glacier areas were mapped for 59 volcanoes across Latin America around 1986, 1999 and 2015 using a semi-automated band ratio method combined with manual editing using satellite images from Landsat 4/5/7/8 and Sentinel-2. Area changes were compared with the Smithsonian volcano database to analyse possible glacier–volcano interactions. Over the full period, the mapped area changed from 1399.3 ± 80 km2 to 1016.1 ± 34 km2 (−383.2 km2) or −27.4% (−0.92% a−1) in relative terms. Small glaciers, especially in tropical regions lost more of their area compared to large and extra–tropical glaciers. Interestingly, 46 out of 59 analysed glaciers (78%) showed a decelerating shrinkage rate in the second period (−1.20% a−1 before 1999 and −0.70% a−1 after 1999). We found a slightly higher (but statistically not significant) area loss rate (−1.03% a−1) for glaciers on volcanoes with eruptions than without (−0.86% a−1).

Geodetic glacier mass balance (1975-1999) in the central Pamir using the SRTM DEM and KH-9 imagery

Abstract: Multiple studies on regional glacier mass balance in the Pamir Mountains have been conducted using the geodetic method, but they were rarely extended to the period before 2000. In this study, we used KH-9 imagery acquired in 1975 to generate the historical DEM for the central Pamir, and then obtained the glacier elevation change by comparing this with the SRTM C-band DEM. The penetration depth of the C-band radar was corrected for different glacier surfaces, i.e. 2.96, 1.68 and 0 m for firn/snow cover, bare ice and debris-covered areas, respectively. The final results suggest that the central Pamir glaciers, overall, experienced a near-zero mass balance of −0.03 ± 0.24 m w.e. a−1 for 1975–99. Due to glacier surge activity, the elevation change patterns of individual glaciers were highly variable, and their mass balances varied from −0.12 ± 0.26 to 0.63 ± 0.20 m w.e. a−1. The mean mass budgets of the surge-type glaciers and non-surge-type glaciers were 0.03 ± 0.14 and −0.05 ± 0.28 m w.e. a−1, respectively. Concurring with previous studies, we conclude that the central Pamir glaciers may have been in a state of approximately balanced mass budget or slight mass deficit from the mid-1970s to the mid-2010s.