Showing papers in "Journal of meteorological research in 2020"

A Review of Research on Tropical Air-Sea Interaction, ENSO Dynamics, and ENSO Prediction in China

Abstract: Remarkable progress has been made in observations, theories, and simulations of the ocean-atmosphere system, laying a solid foundation for the improvement of short-term climate prediction, among which Chinese scientists have made important contributions. This paper reviews Chinese research on tropical air-sea interaction, ENSO dynamics, and ENSO prediction in the past 70 years. Review of the tropical air-sea interaction mainly focuses on four aspects: characteristics of the tropical Pacific climate system and ENSO; main modes of tropical Indian Ocean SSTs and their interactions with the tropical Pacific; main modes of tropical Atlantic SSTs and inter-basin interactions; and influences of the mid-high-latitude air-sea system on ENSO. Review of the ENSO dynamics involves seven aspects: fundamental theories of ENSO; diagnosis and simulation of ENSO; the two types of ENSO; mechanisms of ENSO initiation; the interactions between ENSO and other phenomena; external forcings and teleconnections; and climate change and the ENSO response. The ENSO prediction part briefly summarizes the dynamical-statistical methods used in ENSO prediction, as well as the operational ENSO prediction systems and their applications. Lastly, we discuss some of the issues in these areas that are in need of further study.

Science and Prediction of Heavy Rainfall over China: Research Progress since the Reform and Opening-Up of New China

Abstract: This paper reviews the major progress on development of the science and prediction of heavy rainfall over China since the beginning of the reform and opening-up of new China (roughly between 1980 and 2019). The progress of research on the physical mechanisms of heavy rainfall over China is summarized from three perspectives: 1) the relevant synoptic weather systems, 2) heavy rainfall in major sub-regions of China, and 3) heavy rainfall induced by typhoons. The development and application of forecasting techniques for heavy rainfall are summarized in terms of numerical weather prediction techniques and objective forecasting methods. Greatly aided by the rapid progress in meteorological observing technology and substantial improvement in electronic computing, studies of heavy rainfall in China have advanced to investigating the evolution of heavy-rain-producing storms and observational analysis of the cloud microphysical features. A deeper and more systematic understanding of the synoptic systems of importance to the production of heavy rainfall has also been developed. Operational forecast of heavy rainfall in China has changed from subjective weather event forecasts to a combination of both subjective and objective quantitative precipitation forecasts, and is now advancing toward probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts with the provision of forecast uncertainty information.

Causes and Changes of Drought in China: Research Progress and Prospects

Abstract: Drought is one of the most serious and extensive natural hazards in the world. Subject to monsoon climate variability, China is particularly influenced by drought hazards, especially meteorological drought. Based on a comprehensive understanding of the current status of international drought research, this paper systematically reviews the history and achievements of drought research in China since the founding of the People’s Republic of China, from four main perspectives: characteristics and spatiotemporal distribution of historical and recent drought events, drought formation mechanism and change trend, drought hazard risk, and the particular flash drought. The progress and problems of drought research in China are analyzed and future prospects are proposed, with emphasis on the multi-factor synergetic effect for drought formation; the effect of land-atmosphere interaction; identification, monitoring, and prediction of flash drought; categorization of drought and characteristics among various types of drought; the agricultural drought development; drought response to climate warming; and assessment of drought hazard risks. It is suggested that strengthening scientific experimental research on drought in China is imperative. The present review is conducive to strategic planning of drought research and application, and may facilitate further development of drought research in China.

Development of Climate and Earth System Models in China: Past Achievements and New CMIP6 Results

Abstract: The Earth-Climate System Model (ECSM) is an important platform for multi-disciplinary and multi-sphere integration research, and its development is at the frontier of international geosciences, especially in the field of global change. The research and development (R&D) of ECSM in China began in the 1980s and have achieved great progress. In China, ECSMs are now mainly developed at the Chinese Academy of Sciences, ministries, and universities. Following a brief review of the development history of Chinese ECSMs, this paper summarized the technical characteristics of nine Chinese ECSMs participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 and preliminarily assessed the basic performances of four Chinese models in simulating the global climate and the climate in East Asia. The projected changes of global precipitation and surface air temperature and the associated relationship with the equilibrium climate sensitivity under four shared socioeconomic path scenarios were also discussed. Finally, combined with the international situation, from the perspective of further improvement, eight directions were proposed for the future development of Chinese ECSMs.

Madden-Julian Oscillation: Its Discovery, Dynamics, and Impact on East Asia

Abstract: In this review article, we pay primary attention to innovative works in the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) field done by Chinese scientists. The historical aspect of discovery of the MJO and earlier studies of its dynamics by Chinese scientists are first described. It is followed by the description of recent advances in MJO propagation and initiation dynamics. For MJO eastward propagation, two types of the moisture mode theory are introduced. The first one emphasizes the effect of zonal asymmetry of perturbation moisture in the atmospheric boundary layer and the second one emphasizes the zonal asymmetry of column integrated moisture static energy (MSE) tendency. The mechanisms for MJO initiation over the western Indian Ocean include three distinctive processes: lower tropospheric moistening due to horizontal advection caused by preceding suppressed-phase MJO, midlatitude Rossby wave activity flux convergence in the upper troposphere originated from the Southern Hemisphere, and a delayed sea surface temperature feedback in association with a preceding opposite-phase MJO. The impacts of MJO on low-frequency variability of precipitation and temperature and associated extreme events in East Asia are also discussed.

Advances in Severe Convection Research and Operation in China

Abstract: This article reviews the advances in severe convection research and operation in China during the past several decades. The favorable synoptic situations for severe convective weather (SCW), the major organization modes of severe convective storms (SCSs), the favorable environmental conditions and characteristics of weather radar echoes and satellite images of SCW and SCSs, and the forecasting and nowcasting techniques of SCW, are emphasized. As a whole, Chinese scientists have achieved a profound understanding of the synoptic patterns, organization, and evolution characteristics of SCW from radar and satellite observations, and the mechanisms of different types of convective weather in China. Specifically, in-depth understanding of the multiple types of convection triggers, along with the environmental conditions, structures and organization modes, and maintenance mechanisms of supercell storms and squall lines, has been obtained. The organization modes and climatological distributions of mesoscale convective systems and different types of SCW, and the multiscale characteristics and formation mechanisms of large hail, tornadoes, downbursts, and damaging convective wind gusts based on radar, satellite, and lightning observations, as well as the related features from damage surveys, are elucidated. In terms of operational applications, different types of identification and mesoanalysis techniques, and various forecasting and nowcasting techniques using methods such as the “ingredients-based” and deep learning algorithms, have been developed. As a result, the performance of operational SCW forecasts in China has been significantly improved.

Research Progress on Estimation of the Atmospheric Boundary Layer Height

Abstract: Atmospheric boundary layer height (ABLH) is an important parameter used to depict characteristics of the planetary boundary layer (PBL) in the lower troposphere. The ABLH is strongly associated with the vertical distributions of heat, mass, and energy in the PBL, and it is a key quantity in numerical simulation of the PBL and plays an essential role in atmospheric environmental assessment. In this paper, various definitions and methods for deriving and estimating the ABLH are summarized, from the perspectives of turbulent motion, PBL dynamics and thermodynamics, and distributions of various substances in the PBL. Different methods for determining the ABLH by means of direct observation and remote sensing retrieval are reviewed, and comparisons of the advantages and disadvantages of these methods are presented. The paper also summarizes the ABLH parameterization schemes, discusses current problems in the estimation of ABLH, and finally points out the directions for possible future breakthroughs in the ABLH-related research and application.

The Record-Breaking Extreme Drought in Yunnan Province, Southwest China during Spring–Early Summer of 2019 and Possible Causes

Abstract: In spring and early summer of 2019, Yunnan Province experienced the most severe seasonal drought on record, with days of extreme drought area exceeding 105 km2 far more than normal. Consistently, the precipitation in each month from February to June is over 30% less than normal, and about 50% less in the most severe drought period (April–June). The rainy season in Southwest China (SWC) started on the third pentad in June 2019, which is the second latest in history. The rainy season in Yunnan started on 24 June, which is the latest (29 days later than normal). On the contrary, the onset of the South China Sea summer monsoon (SCSSM) is abnormally early. The lag time between the start of the rainy season in SWC and the onset of the SCSSM in 2019 is 7 pentads, which is the largest since 1961, much longer than the climate mean (less than 1 pentad). The present study analyzes the possible reasons why the rainy season came extremely late and the drought disaster persisted and intensified after a much early SCSSM, at both seasonal and subseasonal timescales. The abnormally late onset of the rainy season and the second greatest potential evapotranspiration (PET) since 1981 are the direct reasons for the persistent drought. Statis-tical results show that the water vapor from southwest of Yunnan in April–June contributes more than that from the east at the seasonal scale. In April–June 2019, however, the southern branch trough (SBT) was abnormally weak, the large and strong anticyclonic wind anomaly prevailed over the Bay of the Bengal (BOB), and the meridional water vapor transport to Yunnan was weak. At the subseasonal scale, the weaker SBT lasted the longest, and the strong convection over the BOB came up late despite of an early onset of the SCSSM, which resulted in reduced low-level moisture convergence in Yunnan and development of drought prior to the SCSSM onset. From the onset of SCSSM to the start of rainy season in SWC, the SBT and meridional water vapor transport from the BOB were still weak, and the water vapor was mainly transported into the coastal area of South and Southeast China rather than Yunnan. After the start of the rainy season in SWC, the SBT was still weak. This led to less moisture transport in the westerlies to the west of Yunnan and the persistent extreme drought. Both the statistical results and case analysis indicate that the stronger Australian high in spring and early summer of 2019 was associated with the abnormally strong anticyclone over the BOB and the always weak SBT. In sum, the anomalous weakness of SBT played a critical role in the extreme drought occurrence and persistence in Yunnan of Southwest China in 2019.

Assessing the Ecological Quality of Nanjing during Its Urbanization Process by Using Satellite, Meteorological, and Socioeconomic Data

Abstract: Assessing the ecological status of different districts within a city undergoing urbanization is challenging given their complex surface types and fast pace of development. In this study, we utilized satellite data obtained from Landsat 5/TM (Thematic Mapper) and Landsat 8/OLI (Operational Land Imager) images in conjunction with meteorological and socioeconomic data to construct a remote sensing ecological index (RSEI) for monitoring the ecological quality of Nanjing, Jiangsu Province. A higher RSEI value corresponded to better ecological quality. Five ratings were associated with RSEI values of city districts: very poor, poor, average, good, and excellent. In Nanjing, the percentage of areas evidencing good RSEI ratings decreased from 55.9% in 2000 to 48.0% in 2018, whereas there was a slight increase in areas with very poor RSEI ratings during this period. Of the 11 city districts, 16.8%, 21.8%, and 61.4% respectively evidenced the increasing, decreasing, and stable ecological quality relative to their quality in 2000. Of the 11 administrative districts in Nanjing, the main urban districts evidenced increased RSEI values in 2018 compared with those in 2000, with the improved areas exceeding the ones that had deteriorated in these districts. However, the ecological quality of new urban and ed because of the urban expansion, with areas that had deteriorated exceeding the improved ones. Of the three protected ecological zones, the quality of Zijin Mountain National Forest Park was considerably better than that of Laoshan and Jiangxinzhou. Overall, the urbanization rate and RSEI evidenced a high negative correlation coefficient value (−0.76). The urbanization process of Nanjing induced a declining trend for the ecological quality, indicating the need of strong protection measures for the maintenance or improvement of its ecological environment.

A 10-Yr Global Land Surface Reanalysis Interim Dataset (CRA-Interim/Land): Implementation and Preliminary Evaluation

Abstract: A land surface reanalysis dataset covering the most recent decades is able to provide temporally consistent initial conditions for weather and climate models, and thus is crucial to verifying/improving numerical weather/climate forecasts/predictions. In this paper, we report the development of a 10-yr China Meteorological Administration (CMA) global Land surface ReAnalysis Interim dataset (CRA-Interim/Land; 2007–2016, 6-h intervals, approximately 34-km horizontal resolution). The dataset was produced and evaluated by using the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) and NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) global land surface reanalysis datasets, as well as in situ observations in China. The results show that the global spatial patterns and monthly variations of the CRA-Interim/Land, GLDAS, and CFSR climatology are highly consistent, while the soil moisture and temperature values of the CRA-Interim/Land dataset are in between those of the GLDAS and CFSR datasets. Compared with ground observations in China, CRA-Interim/Land soil moisture is comparable to or better than that of GLDAS and CFSR datasets for the 0–10-cm soil layer and has higher correlations and slightly lower root mean square errors (RMSE) for the 10–40-cm soil layer. However, CRA-Interim/Land shows negative biases in 10–40-cm soil moisture in Northeast China and north of central China. For ground temperature and the soil temperature in different layers, CRA-Interim/Land behaves better than the CFSR, especially in East and central China. CRA-Interim/Land has added value over the land components of CRA-Interim due to the introduction of global precipitation observations and improved soil/vegetation parameters. Therefore, this dataset is potentially a critical supplement to the CRA-Interim. Further evaluation of the CRA-Interim/Land, assimilation of near-surface atmospheric forcing variables, and extension of the current dataset to 40 yr (1979–2018) are in progress.

Influence of Intermittent Turbulence on Air Pollution and Its Dispersion in Winter 2016/2017 over Beijing, China

Abstract: With rapid urbanization in recent years, severe air pollution has emerged as a major issue for many regions of China, especially in some metropolises. A persistent pollution case during 6 December 2016–8 January 2017 was selected to investigate the relations between turbulent intermittency and frequent PM2.5 (particulate matters with diameter less than 2.5 μm) pollution events over the metropolitan region of Beijing, China. The accumulation of PM2.5 near the surface frequently occurred as a combined result of strong inversion layers, stagnant winds, high ambient humidity levels, and stable stratification during this case. Arbitrary-order Hilbert spectral analysis indicated that steep decreases in the PM2.5 concentration were simultaneous with the occurrence of intermittent turbulence and strong vertical mixing. A wind profiler observation revealed existence of low-level jets (LLJs) at the end of the polluted periods, suggesting that the upper-level turbulent mixing accompanied by the wind shear of LLJ was transported downward and enhanced the vertical mixing near the surface, which might have caused an abrupt reduction in PM2.5 and improvement in air conditions.

Evaluation of Daily Precipitation Product in China from the CMA Global Atmospheric Interim Reanalysis

Abstract: The China Meteorological Administration (CMA) recently produced a CMA Global Atmospheric Interim Reanalysis (CRAI) dataset for the years 2007–2016. A comprehensive evaluation of the ability of CRAI to capture the spatiotemporal variability of observed precipitation, in terms of both mean states and extreme indicators over China, is performed. Comparisons are made with other current reanalysis datasets, namely, the ECMWF interim reanalysis (ERAI), Japanese 55-yr reanalysis (JRA55), NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), and NASA Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications version 2 (MERRA2), as well as NCEP Climate Prediction Center (CPC) observations. The results show that, for daily variations of rainfall during warm seasons in eastern China, CRAI and CFSR overestimate the precipitation of the main rain belt, while the overestimation is confined to the area south of 25°N in JRA55 but north of 24°N in MERRA2; whereas ERAI tends to underestimate the precipitation in most regions of eastern China. Two extreme metrics, the total amount of precipitation on days where daily precipitation exceeds the 95th percentile (R95pTOT) and the number of consecutive dry days (CDDs) in one month, are examined to assess the performance of reanalysis datasets. In terms of extreme events, CRAI, ERAI, and JRA55 tend to underestimate the R95pTOT in most of eastern China, whereas more frequent extreme rainfall can be found in most regions of China in both CFSR and MERRA2; and all of the reanalyses underestimate the CDDs. Among the reanalysis products, CRAI and JRA55 show better agreement with the observed R95pTOT than the other datasets, with fewer biases, higher correlation coefficients, and much more similar linear trend patterns, while ERAI stands out in better capturing the amount and temporal variations of the observed CDDs.

Re-Assessing Climatic Warming in China since 1900

Abstract: The regional mean surface air temperature (SAT) in China has risen with a rate of 1.3–1.7°C (100 yr)−1 since 1900, based on the recently developed homogenized observations. This estimate is larger than those [0.5–0.8°C (100 yr)−1] adopted in the early National Reports of Climate Change in China. The present paper reviews the studies of the long-term SAT series of China, highlighting the homogenization of station observations as the key progress. The SAT series of China in early studies showed a prominent warm peak in the 1940s, mainly due to inhomogeneous records associated with site-moves of a number of stations from urban to outskirts in the early 1950s, thus leading to underestimates of the centennial warming trend. Parts of China were relatively warm around the 1940s but with different-phase interdecadal variations, while some parts were even relatively cool. This fact is supported by proxy data and could partly be explained by interdecadal changes in large-scale circulation. The effect of urbanization should have a minor contribution to the observed warming in China, although the estimates of such contributions for individual ur-ban stations remain controversial. Further studies relevant to the present topic are discussed.

Advances in Urban Meteorological Research in China

Abstract: Over the past decades, a large number of studies have been carried out in the field of urban meteorology in China. This paper summarizes the main progress in urban meteorology research from four aspects: urban meteorological observation network and field campaign, multi-scale model of urban meteorology, interaction between urban meteorology and atmospheric environment, and the impacts of urbanization on weather and climate. Major advances are as follows. China’s major cities have established or are improving comprehensive urban meteorological observation networks characterized by multi-platform, multi-variable, multi-scale, multi-link, and multi-function. Beijing, Nanjing, Shanghai, and other cities carried out urban meteorological field campaigns, which were included in the WMO research demonstration project. Wind tunnel experiments and scale-model outdoor experiments were successfully conducted. Multi-scale urban meteorological and air quality prediction numerical model systems have been developed and put into operational use. The urban heat island effect; urban impacts on precipitation, regional climate, and air quality; urban planning; and interaction between urban meteorology and atmospheric environment are extensively investigated. Finally, efforts to improve observational technology, data assimilation, and urban system modeling, to explore the impacts of urbanization on environment and human health, and to provide integrated urban hydro-meteorological climate and environmental services are planned ahead.

Research and Operational Development of Numerical Weather Prediction in China

Abstract: Numerical weather prediction (NWP) is a core technology in weather forecast and disaster mitigation. China’s NWP research and operational applications have been attached great importance by the meteorological community. Fundamental achievements have been made in the theories, methods, and NWP model development in China, which are of certain international impacts. In this paper, the scientific and technological progress of NWP in China since 1949 is summarized. The current status and recent progress of the domestically developed NWP system—GRAPES (Global/Regional Assimilation and PrEdiction System) are presented. Through independent research and development in the past 10 years, the operational GRAPES system has been established, which includes both regional and global deterministic and ensemble prediction models, with resolutions of 3–10 km for regional and 25–50 km for global forecasts. Major improvements include establishment of a new non-hydrostatic dynamic core, setup of four-dimensional variational data assimilation, and development of associated satellite application. As members of the GRAPES system, prediction models for atmospheric chemistry and air pollution, tropical cyclones, and ocean waves have also been developed and put into operational use. The GRAPES system has been an important milestone in NWP science and technology in China.

Estimation of Gridded Atmospheric Oxygen Consumption from 1975 to 2018

Abstract: Atmospheric Oxygen (O2) is one of the dominating features that allow the earth to be a habitable planet with advanced civilization and diverse biology. However, since the late 1980s, observational data have indicated a steady decline in O2 content on the scale of parts-per-million level. The current scientific consensus is that the decline is caused by the fossil-fuel combustion; however, few works have been done to quantitatively evaluate the response of O2 cycle under the anthropogenic impact, at both the global and regional scales. This paper manages to quantify the land O2 flux and makes the initial step to quantificationally describe the anthropogenic impacts on the global O2 budget. Our estimation reveals that the global O2 consumption has experienced an increase from 33.69 ± 1.11 to 47.63 ± 0.80 Gt (gigaton, 109 t) O2 yr−1 between 2000 and 2018, while the land production of O2 (totaling 11.34 ± 13.48 Gt O2 yr−1 averaged over the same period) increased only slightly. In 2018, the combustion of fossil-fuel and industrial activities (38.45 ± 0.61 Gt O2 yr−1) contributed the most to consumption, followed by wildfires (4.97 ± 0.48 Gt O2 yr−1) as well as livestock and human respiration processes (2.48 ± 0.16 and 1.73 ± 0.13 Gt O2 yr−1, respectively). Burning of fossil-fuel that causes large O2 fluxes occurs in East Asia, India, North America, and Europe, while wildfires that cause large fluxes in comparable magnitude are mainly distributed in central Africa.

Short-Term Dynamic Radar Quantitative Precipitation Estimation Based on Wavelet Transform and Support Vector Machine

Abstract: Currently, Doppler weather radar in China is generally used for quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) based on the Z–R relationship. However, the estimation error for mixed precipitation is very large. In order to improve the accuracy of radar QPE, we propose a dynamic radar QPE algorithm with a 6-min interval that uses the reflectivity data of Doppler radar Z9002 in the Shanghai Qingpu District and the precipitation data at automatic weather stations (AWSs) in East China. Considering the time dependence and abrupt changes of precipitation, the data during the previous 30-min period were selected as the training data. To reduce the complexity of radar QPE, we transformed the weather data into the wavelet domain by means of the stationary wavelet transform (SWT) in order to extract high and low-frequency reflectivity and precipitation information. Using the wavelet coefficients, we constructed a support vector machine (SVM) at all scales to estimate the wavelet coefficient of precipitation. Ultimately, via inverse wavelet transformation, we obtained the estimated rainfall. By comparing the results of the proposed method (SWT-SVM) with those of Z = 300 × R1.4, linear regression (LR), and SVM, we determined that the root mean square error (RMSE) of the SWT-SVM method was 0.54 mm per 6 min and the average Threat Score (TS) could exceed 40% with the exception of the downpour category, thus remaining at a high level. Generally speaking, the SWT-SVM method can effectively improve the accuracy of radar QPE and provide an auxiliary reference for actual meteorological operational forecasting.

Applicability Assessment of the 1998–2018 CLDAS Multi-Source Precipitation Fusion Dataset over China

Abstract: Traditional hourly rain gauges and automatic weather stations rarely measure solid precipitation, except for those stations with weighing-type precipitation sensors. Microwave remote sensing has only a low ability to retrieve solid precipitation. In addition, there are no long-term, high-quality precipitation data in China that can be used to drive land surface models. To address these issues, in the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Land Data Assimilation System (CLDAS), we blended the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) morphing technique (CMORPH) and Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications version 2 (MERRA2) precipitation datasets with observed temperature and precipitation data on various temporal scales using multigrid variational analysis and temporal downscaling to produce a multi-source precipitation fusion dataset for China (CLDAS-Prcp). This dataset covers all of China at a resolution of 6.25 km at hourly intervals from 1998 to 2018. We performed dependent and independent evaluations of the CLDAS-Prcp dataset from the perspectives of seasonal total precipitation and land surface model simulation. Our results show that the CLDAS-Prcp dataset represents reasonably the spatial distribution of precipitation in China. The dependent evaluation indicates that the CLDAS-Prcp performs better than the MERRA2 precipitation, CMORPH precipitation, Global Land Data Assimilation System version 2 (GLDAS-V2.1) precipitation, and CLDAS-V2.0 winter precipitation, as compared to the meteorological observational precipitation. The independent evaluation indicates that the CLDAS-Prcp dataset performs better than the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) precipitation dataset and is similar to the CLDAS-V2.0 summer precipitation dataset based on the hydrological observational precipitation. The simulated soil moisture content driven by CLDAS-Prcp is slightly better than that driven by the CLDAS-V2.0 precipitation, whereas the snow depth simulation driven by CLDAS-Prcp is much better than that driven by the CLDAS-V2.0 precipitation. This is because the CLDAS-Prcp data have included solid precipitation. Overall, the CLDAS-Prcp dataset can meet the needs of land surface and hydrological modeling studies.

High-Resolution Projections of Mean and Extreme Precipitation over China by Two Regional Climate Models

Abstract: In this study, we employ two regional climate models (RCMs or RegCMs), which are RegCM4 and PRECIS (Providing Regional Climates for Impact Studies), with a horizontal grid spacing of 25 km, to simulate the precipitation dynamics across China for the baseline climate of 1981–2010 and two future climates of 2031–2060 and 2061–2090. The global climate model (GCM)—Hadley Centre Global Environment Model version 2-Earth Systems (HadGEM2-ES) is used to drive the two RCMs. The results of baseline simulations show that the two RCMs can correct the obvious underestimation of light rain below 5 mm day−1 and the overestimation of precipitation above 5 mm day−1 in Northwest China and the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, as being produced by the driving GCM. While PRECIS outperforms RegCM4 in simulating annual precipitation and wet days in several sub-regions of Northwest China, its underperformance shows up in eastern China. For extreme precipitation, the two RCMs provide a more accurate simulation of continuous wet days (CWD) with reduced biases and more realistic spatial patterns compared to their driving GCM. For other extreme precipitation indices, the RCM simulations show limited benefit except for an improved performance in some localized regions. The future projections of the two RCMs show an increase in the annual precipitation amount and the intensity of extreme precipitation events in most regions. Most areas of Southeast China will experience fewer number of wet days, especially in summer, but more precipitation per wet day (≥ 30 mm day−1). By contrast, number of wet days will increase in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau and some areas of northern China. The increase in both the maximum precipitation for five consecutive days and the regional extreme precipitation will lead to a higher risk of increased flooding. The findings of this study can facilitate the efforts of climate service institutions and government agencies to improve climate services and to make climate-smart decisions.

Evaluation of East Asian Summer Climate Prediction from the CESM Large-Ensemble Initialized Decadal Prediction Project

Abstract: Based on surface air temperature and precipitation observation data and NCEP/NCAR atmospheric reanalysis data, this study evaluates the prediction of East Asian summer climate during 1959–2016 undertaken by the CESM (Community Earth System Model) large-ensemble initialized decadal prediction (CESM-DPLE) project. The results demonstrate that CESM-DPLE can reasonably capture the basic features of the East Asian summer climate and associated main atmospheric circulation patterns. In general, the prediction skill is quite high for surface air temperature, but less so for precipitation, on the interannual timescale. CESM-DPLE reproduces the anomalies of mid- and high-latitude atmospheric circulation and the East Asian monsoon and climate reasonably well, all of which are attributed to the teleconnection wave train driven by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). A transition into the warm phase of the AMO after the late 1990s decreased the geopotential height and enhanced the strength of the monsoon in East Asia via the teleconnection wave train during summer, leading to excessive precipitation and warming over East Asia. Altogether, CESM-DPLE is capable of predicting the summer temperature in East Asia on the interannual timescale, as well as the interdecadal variations of East Asian summer climate associated with the transition of AMO phases in the late 1990s, albeit with certain inadequacies remaining. The CESM-DPLE project provides an important resource for investigating and predicting the East Asian climate on the interannual and decadal timescales.

Evaluation of the Biodiversity Conservation Function in Liaohe Delta Wetland, Northeastern China

Abstract: The scientific evaluation of the wetland biodiversity conservation function is the basis of balanced wetland protection and development. Our research sought to provide references for the protection of wetland ecological environments as well as the related planning and management policies. The study established a fitting model for evaluating the biodiversity conservation function in the Liaohe Delta, northeastern China. The new model, the Wetland Biodiversity Conservation Indicator (WBCI), was with four input factors, including the vegetation coverage (VC), habitat suitability index (HI), land use and land cover (LULC) index (LI), and threat factor index (TI) of the LULC type. The values assigned to HI and TI were based on Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) habitat quality models. The weights of all the factors in WBCI were valued with the Principal Component Analysis (PCA). We evaluated the wetland biodiversity conservation function of Panjin, Liaohe Delta, China, by using the WBCI model based on Gaofen-1 (GF-1) satellite data in 2018, and the result was verified with InVEST and other models. It showed that the output map was similar to that of InVEST, with the higher-quality habitat including the wetland, tidal flat, water body, and forest, as well as the lower-quality land use types including the paddy field, crop field, construction land, and land used by traffic. The wetland biodiversity conservation function was better in areas less affected by human disturbance, with very abundant species and good-quality habitat. It was poor in areas impacted by more frequent human activities such as the land cultivation, housing, and traffic, which led to the landscape fragmentation. The WBCI model provided a more accurate reflection of the bird distribution than the InVEST model. The WBCI model was able to reflect the difference in quality of each habitat grade, in contrast to the net primary productivity (NPP) method and species distribution models (SDMs). The new model was, therefore, simpler and suitable in reflecting the quality of wetland biodiversity function in the Liaohe Delta.

Evaluation and Hydrological Application of CMADS Reanalysis Precipitation Data against Four Satellite Precipitation Products in the Upper Huaihe River Basin, China

Abstract: Satellite- and reanalysis-based precipitation products are important data source for precipitation, particularly in areas with a sparse gauge network. Here, five open-access precipitation products, including the newly released China Meteorological Assimilation Driving Datasets for the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model (CMADS) reanalysis dataset and four widely used bias-adjusted satellite precipitation products [SPPs; i.e., Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis 3B42 Version 7 (TMPA 3B42V7), Climate Prediction Center (CPC) morphing technique satellite-gauge blended product (CMORPH-BLD), Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation with Station Data (CHIRPS), and Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks-Climate Data Record (PERSIANN-CDR)], were assessed. These products were first compared with the gauge observed data collected for the upper Huaihe River basin, and then were used as forcing data for streamflow simulation by the Xin’anjiang (XAJ) hydrological model under two scenarios with different calibration procedures. The performance of CMADS precipitation product for the Chinese mainland was also assessed. The results show that: (1) for the statistical assessment, CMADS and CMORPH-BLD perform the best, followed by TMPA 3B42V7, CHIRPS, and PERSIANN-CDR, among which the correlation coefficient (CC) and root-mean-square error (RMSE) values of CMADS are optimal, although it exhibits certain significant negative relative bias (BIAS; −22.72%); (2) CMORPH-BLD performs the best in capturing and detecting rainfall events, while CMADS tends to underestimate heavy and torrential precipitation; (3) for streamflow simulation, the performance of using CMADS as input is very good, with the highest Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) values (0.85 and 0.75 for calibration period and validation period, respectively); and (4) CMADS exhibits high accuracy in eastern China while with significant negative BIAS, and the performance declines from southeast to northwest. The statistical and hydrological evaluations show that CMADS and CMORPH-BLD have high potential for observing precipitation. As high negative BIAS values showed up in CMADS evaluation, further study on the error sources from original data and calibration algorithms is necessary. This study can serve as a reference for selecting precipitation products in data-scarce regions with similar climates and topography in the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) era.

Climate Sensitivity and Feedbacks of BCC-CSM to Idealized CO 2 Forcing from CMIP5 to CMIP6

Abstract: Climate sensitivity represents the response of climate system to doubled CO2 concentration relative to the preindustrial level, which is one of the sources of uncertainty in climate projections. It is unclear how the climate sensitivity and feedbacks will change as a model system is upgraded from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to CMIP6. In this paper, we address this issue by comparing two versions of the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model (BCC-CSM) participating in CMIP6 and CMIP5, i.e., BCC-CSM2-MR and BCC-CSM1.1m, which have the same horizontal resolution but different physical parameterizations. The results show that the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) of BCC-CSM slightly increases from CMIP5 (2.94 K) to CMIP6 (3.04 K). The small changes in the ECS result from compensation between decreased effective radiative forcing (ERF) and the increased net feedback. In contrast, the transient climate response (TCR) evidently decreases from 2.19 to 1.40 K, nearly the lower bound of the CMIP6 multimodel spread. The low TCR in BCC-CSM2-MR is mainly caused by the small ERF overly even though the ocean heat uptake (OHU) efficiency is substantially improved from that in BCC-CSM1.1m. Cloud shortwave feedback (λSWCL) is found to be the major cause of the increased net feedback in BCC-CSM2-MR, mainly over the Southern Ocean. The strong positive λSWCL in BCC-CSM2-MR is coincidently related to the weakened sea ice-albedo feedback in the same region. This result is caused by reduced sea ice coverage simulated during the preindustrial cold season, which leads to reduced melting per 1-K global warming. As a result, in BCC-CSM2-MR, reduced surface heat flux and strengthened static stability of the planetary boundary layer cause a decrease in low-level clouds and an increase in incident shortwave radiation. This study reveals the important compensation between λSWCL and sea ice-albedo feedback in the Southern Ocean.

Comparison of Snowfall Variations over China Identified from Different Snowfall/Rainfall Discrimination Methods

Abstract: Based on the snowfall observations at 836 surface weather stations in China and the Daily Surface Climate Variables of China version 3.0 dataset for 1961–2013, capability of five methods with different objective criteria for identifying wintertime snowfall is evaluated, to provide reference for application of these methods in snowfall/rainfall discrimination. Methods I, II, III, IV, and V use the daily average surface air temperature (Ta), wet-bulb temperature (Tw), dynamic threshold Tw, 0-cm ground temperature, and 700–850-hPa thickness, respectively, to identify the snowfall. The results show that the climatological distribution of snowfall can be well produced by Methods I, II, and III. Method IV underestimates the snowfall days in eastern Tibetan Plateau (ETP), and Method V cannot yield the actual large numbers of snowfall days and amounts. Accordingly, the linear trends of snowfall days estimated from Methods I, II, and III largely agree with the observations, while a discrepancy is found in the linear trend of snowfall amounts over southeastern China (SEC). For interannual and decadal variations of snowfall, Method V shows the worst performance. It is more reasonable to use Tw to distinguish snowfall from rainfall instead of Ta, 0-cm ground temperature, and 700–850-hPa thickness; and the reference thresholds of Tw in northeastern China (NEC), northwestern China (NWC), ETP, and SEC are −1.5, −1.5, −0.4, and −0.3°C, respectively. The above results are beneficial to identifying snowfall in short-term climate prediction.

Variations of Vegetation Phenology Extracted from Remote Sensing Data over the Tibetan Plateau Hinterland during 2000–2014

Abstract: How vegetation phenology responds to climate change is a key to the understanding of the mechanisms driving historic and future changes in regional terrestrial ecosystem productivity. Based on the 250-m and 8-day moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data for 2000–2014 in the Three-River Source Region (TRSR) of Qinghai Province, China, i.e., the hinterland of the Tibetan Plateau, we extracted relevant vegetation phenological information (e.g., start, end, and length of growing season) and analyzed the changes in the TRSR vegetation in response to climate change. The results reveal that, under the increasingly warm and humid climate, the start of vegetation growing season (SOS) advanced 1.03 day yr−1 while the end of vegetation growing season (EOS) exhibited no significant changes, which led to extended growing season length. It is found that the SOS was greatly affected by the preceding winter precipitation, with progressively enhanced precipitation facilitating an earlier SOS. Moreover, as the variations of SOS and its trend depended strongly on topography, we estimated the elevation break-points for SOS. The lower the elevations were, the earlier the SOS started. In the areas below 3095-m elevation, the SOS delay changed rapidly with increasing elevation; whereas above that, the SOS changes were relatively minor. The SOS trend had three elevation break-points at 2660, 3880, and 5240 m.

Assessing Drought Conditions in Cloudy Regions Using Reconstructed Land Surface Temperature

Abstract: Temperature vegetation dryness index (TVDI) in a triangular or trapezoidal feature space can be calculated from the land surface temperature (LST) and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and has been widely applied to regional drought monitoring. However, thermal infrared sensors cannot penetrate clouds to detect surface information of sub-cloud pixels. In cloudy areas, LST data include a large number of cloudy pixels, seriously degrading the spatial and temporal continuity of drought monitoring. In this paper, the Remotely Sensed Daily Land Surface Temperature Reconstruction model (RSDAST) is combined with the LST reconstructed (RLST) by the RSDAST and applied to drought monitoring in a cloudy area. The drought monitoring capability of the reconstructed temperature vegetation drought index (RTVDI) under cloudy conditions is evaluated by comparing the correlation between land surface observations for soil moisture and the TVDI before and after surface temperature reconstruction. Results show that the effective duration and area of the RTVDI in the study area were larger than those of the original TVDI (OTVDI) in 2011. In addition, RLST/NDVI scatter plots cover a wide range of values, with the fitted dry–wet boundaries more representative of real soil moisture conditions. Under continuously cloudy conditions, the OTVDI inverted from the original LST (OLST) loses its drought monitoring capability, whereas RTVDI can completely and accurately reconstruct surface moisture conditions across the entire study area. The correlation between TVDI and soil moisture is stronger for RTVDI (R = −0.45) than that for OTVDI (R = −0.33). In terms of the spatial and temporal distributions, the R value for correlation between RTVDI and soil moisture was higher than that for OTVDI. Hence, in continuously cloudy areas, RTVDI not only expands drought monitoring capability in time and space, but also improves the accuracy of surface soil moisture monitoring and enhances the applicability and reliability of thermal infrared data under extreme conditions.

Low-Level Wind Shear Characteristics and Lidar-Based Alerting at Lanzhou Zhongchuan International Airport, China

Abstract: Lanzhou Zhongchuan International Airport [International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) code ZLLL] is located in a wind shear prone area in China, where most low-level wind shear events occur in dry weather conditions. We analyzed temporal distribution and synoptic circulation background for 18 dry wind shear events reported by pilots at ZLLL by using the NCEP final (FNL) operational global analysis data, and then proposed a lidar-based regio-nal divergence algorithm (RDA) to determine wind shear intensity and location. Low-level wind shear at ZLLL usually occurs in the afternoon and evening in dry conditions. Most wind shear events occur in an unstable atmosphere over ZLLL, with changes in wind speed or direction generally found at 700 hPa and 10-m height. Based on synoptic circulations at 700 hPa, wind shear events could be classified as strong northerly, convergence, southerly, and weak wind types. The proposed RDA successfully identified low-level wind shear except one southerly case, achieving 94% alerting rate compared with 82% for the operational system at ZLLL and 88% for the ramp detection algorithm (widely used in some operational alert systems) based on the same dataset. The RDA-unidentified southerly case occurred in a near neutral atmosphere, and wind speed change could not be captured by the Doppler lidar.

Seasonal Rainfall Forecasts for the Yangtze River Basin of China in Summer 2019 from an Improved Climate Service

Abstract: Rainfall forecasts for the summer monsoon season in the Yangtze River basin (YRB) allow decision-makers to plan for possible flooding, which can affect the lives and livelihoods of millions of people. A trial climate service was developed in 2016, producing a prototype seasonal forecast product for use by stakeholders in the region, based on rainfall forecasts directly from a dynamical model. Here, we describe an improved service based on a simple statistical downscaling approach. Through using dynamical forecast of an East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) index, seaso-nal mean rainfall for the upper and middle/lower reaches of YRB can be forecast separately by use of the statistical downscaling, with significant skills for lead times of up to at least three months. The skill in different sub-basin regions of YRB varies with the target season. The rainfall forecast skill in the middle/lower reaches of YRB is significant in May–June–July (MJJ), and the forecast skill for rainfall in the upper reaches of YRB is significant in June–July–August (JJA). The mean rainfall for the basin as a whole can be skillfully forecast in both MJJ and JJA. The forecasts issued in 2019 gave good guidance for the enhanced rainfall in the MJJ period and the near-average conditions in JJA. Initial feedback from users in the basin suggests that the improved forecasts better meet their needs and will enable more robust decision-making.

Seasonal Prediction of Boreal Winter Rainfall over the Western Maritime Continent during ENSO

Abstract: Since the beginning of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations Climate Outlook Forum (ASEANCOF) in 2013, the most difficult challenge has been the rainfall forecast in boreal winter. This is the Maritime Continent monsoon season during which rainfall reaches maximum in the annual cycle. This forecast difficulty arises in spite of the general notion that seasonal predictability of the Maritime Continent rainfall may be higher than most places because of the strong and robust influences of ENSO. The lower predictability is consistent with the lower correlation between ENSO and western Maritime Continent rainfall that reaches minimum during the boreal winter monsoon. Various theories have been proposed to explain this low correlation. In this paper, we review the research on ENSO–Maritime Continent rainfall relationship and show that the main cause of the forecast difficulty is the wind–terrain interaction involving the Sumatran and Malay Peninsula mountains, rather than the effect of sea surface temperature (SST). The wind–terrain interaction due to the low-level regional scale anomalous horizontal circulation offsets the anomalous Walker circulation during both El Nino and La Nina. The net result of these two opposing responses to ENSO is a lower local predictability. We propose to call this low-predictability region the WIMP (Western Indonesia–Malay Peninsula) region both for its geographical location and its special characteristic of causing difficulties for forecasters to make a confident forecast for the boreal winter. Our result suggests that climate models lack skills in forecasting rainfall in this region because their predictability depends strongly on SST.

Modulation of the Intraseasonal Variability of Pacific–Japan Pattern by ENSO

Abstract: This study investigates how the El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) modulates the intraseasonal variability (ISV) of Pacific–Japan (PJ) teleconnection pattern. The PJ index during boreal summer is constructed from the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) of the 850-hPa zonal wind (U850) anomalies. Distinct periods of the PJ index are found during El Nino and La Nina summers. Although ISV of the PJ pattern is significant during 10–25 days for both types of summers, it peaks on Days 30 and 60 in El Nino and La Nina summers respectively. During El Nino summers, the 30-day ISV of PJ pattern is related to the northwestward propagating intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) over the western North Pacific (WNP), which is originated from the tropical Indian Ocean (IO). During La Nina summers, the 60-day ISV of PJ pattern is related to the northeastward propagating ISO from the tropical IO. The low-frequency ISV modes in both El Nino and La Nina summers are closely related to the boreal summer ISO (BSISO), and the high-frequency ISV modes over WNP are related to the quasi-biweekly oscillation. The underlying mechanisms for these different evolutions are also discussed.