Showing papers in "Open Economies Review in 2013"

Capital Flows and Economic Growth in the Era of Financial Integration and Crisis, 1990-2010

Abstract: We investigate the relationship between economic growth and lagged international capital flows, disaggregated into FDI, portfolio investment, equity investment, and short-term debt. We follow about 100 countries during 1990–2010 when emerging markets became more integrated into the international financial system. We look at the relationship both before and after the global crisis. Our study reveals a complex and mixed picture. The relationship between growth and lagged capital flows depends on the type of flows, economic structure, and global growth patterns. We find a large and robust relationship between FDI – both inflows and outflows – and growth. The relationship between growth and equity flows is smaller and less stable. Finally, the relationship between growth and short-term debt is nil before the crisis, and negative during the crisis.

The New CFS Divisia Monetary Aggregates: Design, Construction, and Data Sources

Abstract: The Center for Financial Stability (CFS) has initiated a new Divisia monetary aggregates database, maintained within the CFS program called Advances in Monetary and Financial Measurement (AMFM). The Director of the program is William A. Barnett, who is the originator of Divisia monetary aggregation and more broadly of the associated field of aggregation-theoretic monetary aggregation. The international section of the AMFM web site is a centralized source for Divisia monetary aggregates data and research for over 40 countries throughout the world. The components of the CFS Divisia monetary aggregates for the United States reflect closely those of the current and former simple-sum monetary aggregates provided by the Federal Reserve. The first five levels, M1, M2, M2M, MZM, and ALL, are composed of currency, deposit accounts, and money market accounts. The liquid asset extensions to M3, M4-, and M4 resemble in spirit the now discontinued M3 and L aggregates, including repurchase agreements, large denomination time deposits, commercial paper, and Treasury bills. When the Federal Reserve discontinued publishing M3 and L, the Fed stopped providing the consolidated, seasonally adjusted components. Also the Fed no longer provides the interest rates on the components. With so much of the needed component quantity and interest-rate data no longer available from the Federal Reserve, decisions about data sources needed in construction of the CFS aggregates have been far from easy and sometimes required regression interpolation. This paper documents the decisions of the CFS regarding United States data sources at the present time, with particular emphasis on Divisia M3 and M4.

Commodity Prices, Inflationary Pressures, and Monetary Policy: Evidence from BRICS Economies

Abstract: We assess the transmission of monetary policy and the impact of fluctuations in commodity prices on the real economy for the five biggest and fastest growing emerging market economies: Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS). Using modern econometric techniques, we show that a monetary policy contraction has a negative effect on output, suggesting that it can lean against unexpected macroeconomic shocks even when the financial markets are not well-developed in this group of countries. We also uncover the importance of commodity price shocks, which lead to a rise in inflation and demand an aggressive behaviour from central banks towards inflation stabilisation.

Financial Globalisation and the Crisis

Abstract: The global financial crisis provides an important testing ground for the financial globalisation model. We ask three questions. First, did financial globalisation materially contribute to the origination of the global financial crisis? Second, once the crisis occurred, how did financial globalisation affect the incidence and propagation of the crisis across different countries? Third, how has financial globalisation affected the management of the crisis at national and international levels?

An Estimated Stochastic General Equilibrium Model with Partial Dollarization: A Bayesian Approach

Abstract: In this paper, we develop and estimate a dynamic stochastic, general-equilibrium New Keynesian model with partial dollarization. Bayesian techniques and Peruvian data are used to evaluate two forms of dollarization: currency substitution (CS) and price dollarization (PD). The empirical results are as follow: first, it is noted that the two forms of partial dollarization are important in explaining the significance of the Peruvian data. Second, models with both forms of dollarization dominate models without dollarization. Third, a counterfactual exercise shows that by eliminating both forms of partial dollarization, the response of both output and consumption to a monetary policy shock doubles, making the interest rate channel of monetary policy more effective. Fourth, based on the variance decomposition of the preferred model (with CS and PD), it is found that demand type shocks explain almost all the fluctuation in CPI inflation, the monetary shock being the most important (39%). Remarkably, foreign disturbances account for 34% of the output fluctuations.

What Drives Clarity of Central Bank Communication About Inflation

Abstract: This paper examines whether the clarity of central bank communication about inflation varies with the economic environment. Using readability statistics and content analysis, we study the clarity of communication on the inflation outlook by seven central banks across three continents during the recent decade. We uncover significant and persistent differences in clarity over time and across countries. However, identifying determinants of clarity that are robustly relevant across our sample of central banks proves elusive. Overall, our findings suggest that a single model for clarity of central bank communication is not appropriate. Rather, when studying clarity of communication, country-specific and institution-specific factors are highly relevant.

Nontradable Goods and the Real Exchange Rate

Abstract: How important are nontradable goods and distribution costs to explain real exchange rate dynamics? We answer this question by estimating a general equilibrium model with intermediate and final tradable and nontradable goods. We find that the estimated model can match characteristics of the data that are relevant in international macroeconomics, such as real exchange rate persistence and volatility, and the correlation between the real exchange rate and other variables. The distinction between tradable and nontradable goods is key to understand real exchange rate fluctuations, but the introduction of distribution costs is not. Nontradable sector technology shocks explain about one third of real exchange rate volatility. We also show that, in order to explain the low correlation between the ratio of relative consumption and the real exchange rates across countries, demand shocks are necessary.

The Macroeconomic Effects of Large Exchange Rate Appreciations

Abstract: Although currency adjustment is often proposed as a policy tool to reduce current account imbalances, there is no consensus regarding the macroeconomic effects. In this paper we study the macroeconomic aftermath of large exchange rate appreciations. Using a sample of 128 countries over the period 1960–2008, we identify 25 episodes of large nominal and real appreciations shocks. We use narrative identification of exogenous appreciation episodes and study the macroeconomic effects in a dummy-augmented panel autoregressive model. Our results indicate that exchange rate appreciations tend to have strong effects on current account balances. Within 3 years after the appreciation event, the current account balance on average deteriorates by three percentage points of GDP. This effect occurs through a reduction of savings without a meaningful reduction in investment. Real export growth slows down substantially, but the output costs are small and not statistically significant. All these effects appear somewhat more pronounced in developing countries.

Fiscal Implications of the ECB’s Bond Buying Program

Abstract: The perception that the government bond buying program (OMT) announced by the ECB may lead to future tax burdens on countries, in particular on Germany, is based on an erroneous application of solvency principles that apply to private agents, but not to central banks. We argue that the creditor nations’ taxpayers, in particular the German taxpayers, will receive tax revenue from the implementation of the OMT. We also measure the size of the bond-buying program that is compatible with price stability. It turns out that this estimate critically depends on whether the Eurozone stays in a liquidity trap situation or not. Today, as the Eurozone is still in a liquidity trap there is no limit to the amount of government bonds the ECB can buy without triggering inflation.

Interest Rates, Leverage, and Money

Abstract: The current mainstream approach to monetary policy is based on the New Keynesian model and is expressed in terms of a short-term nominal interest, such as the federal funds rate in the United States. It ignores the role of leverage and also downplays the role of money in basic monetary theory and monetary policy analysis. But as the federal funds rate has reached the zero lower bound and the Federal Reserve is in a liquidity trap, the issue is whether there is a useful role of leverage and monetary aggregates in monetary policy and business cycle analysis. We address these issues and argue that there is a need for financial stability policies to manage the leverage cycle and reduce the procyclicality of the financial system. We also argue that in the aftermath of the global financial crisis and Great Contraction there is a need to get away from the New Keynesian thinking and back toward a quantity theory approach to monetary policy, based on properly measured monetary aggregates, such as the new Center for Financial Stability Divisia monetary aggregates.

Unemployment in Latin America and the Caribbean

Abstract: This study constructs a new data set on unemployment rates in Latin America and the Caribbean and then explores the determinants of unemployment. We compare different countries, finding that unemployment is influenced by the size of the rural population and that the effects of government regulations are generally weak. We also examine large, persistent increases in unemployment over time, finding that they are caused by contractions in aggregate demand. These demand contractions result from either disinflationary monetary policy or the defense of an exchange-rate peg in the face of capital flight. Our evidence supports hysteresis theories in which short-run changes in unemployment influence the natural rate.

Marginal Distance: Does Export Experience Reduce Firm Trade Costs?

Abstract: Are the costs of exporting to a market reduced if a firm has experience of exporting to a neighbouring market? If so, does this effect operate through reducing entry barriers or by increasing sales once the firm is operating in the market? This paper examines linkages between current export destinations and entry, sales and exit for new markets. We find that measures of exporting experience in geographically nearby markets increase the probability of entry into a market and reduce the probability of exit. However, these same measures have very limited effect on the firm’s export sales in the market. The effect of related experience on sales tends to be negative for recently entered firms. We interpret this result in the context of the Melitz heterogeneous-firm model of trade by showing that lower fixed costs reduce the entry threshold, but this lower threshold has the effect of allowing lower-sales marginal firms to be present in the market.

Automatic Fiscal Stabilisers: What They Are and What They Do

Abstract: The global financial and economic crisis has revived the debate in the academic literature and in policy circles about the size and effectiveness of automatic fiscal stabilisers. Especially in the euro area where monetary policy is centralised and discretionary fiscal policy making is constrained by the EU fiscal rules, knowing the size and the effectiveness of automatic stabilisers is crucial. While automatic stabilisers are a fairly established concept in the fiscal policy literature, there is still no consensus about their actual nature and their effectiveness. This paper shows that differences in opinion mirror a deeper disagreement over how the budget would look like without automatic stabilisers. This issue is addressed by defining two types of counterfactual budgets giving rise to two different interpretations about the nature of automatic stabilisation. Simulations with a structural model confirm that the degree of smoothing is conditional on how the counterfactual budget, i.e. the budget without automatic stabilisers, is defined.

Exchange Rate Pass-through in a Small Open Economy: the Importance of the Distribution Sector

Abstract: The degree of exchange rate pass-through to domestic goods prices has important implications for monetary policy in small open economies with floating exchange rates. Evidence indicates that pass-through is faster to import prices than to consumer prices. Price setting behaviour in the distribution sector is suggested as one important explanation. If distribution costs and trade margins are important price components of imported consumer goods, adjustment of import prices and consumer prices to exchange rate movements may differ. We present evidence on these issues for Norway by estimating a cointegrated VAR model for the pricing behaviour in the distribution sector, paying particular attention to exchange rate channels likely to operate through trade margins. Embedding this model into a large scale macroeconometric model of the Norwegian economy, which inter alia includes the pricing-to-market hypothesis and price-wage and wage-wage spirals between industries, we find exchange rate pass-through to be quite rapid to import prices and fairly slow to consumer prices. We show the importance of the pricing behaviour in the distribution sector in that trade margins act as cushions to exchange rate fluctuations, thereby delaying pass-through significantly to consumer prices. A forecasting exercise demonstrates that exchange rate pass-through to trade margins has not changed in the wake of the financial crises and the switch to inflation targeting. We also find significant inflationary effects of exchange rate changes even in the short run, an insight important for inflation targeting central banks.

Systematic and Liquidity Risk in Subprime-Mortgage Backed Securities

Abstract: The misevaluation of risk in securitized financial products is central to understanding the Financial Crisis of 2007–2008. This paper characterizes the evolution of factors affecting collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) based on subprime mortgages. A key feature of subprime-mortgage backed indices is that they are distinct in their vintage of issuance. Using a latent factor framework that incorporates this vintage effect, we show the increasing importance of a common factor on more senior tranches during the crisis. We examine this common factor and its relationship with spreads. We estimate the effects of the financial crisis on the common factor.

Individual Attitudes Towards Trade: Stolper-Samuelson Revisited

Abstract: Using the 2007 wave of the Pew Global Attitudes Project, this paper finds statistically significant and economically large Stolper-Samuelson effects in individuals’ preference formation towards trade policy. High-skilled individuals are substantially more pro-trade than low-skilled individuals in high-skilled labor abundant countries, and vice versa in a considerable share of low-skilled labor abundant countries. Our novel international survey data combine a number of desirable features which allow us to paint a more distinct and thus more convincing picture of the role of the Heckscher-Ohlin model in shaping free trade attitudes, relative to existing literature.

What Drives Ireland’s Housing Market? A Bayesian DSGE Approach

Abstract: We study the drivers of fluctuations in the Irish housing market by developing and estimating a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model of Ireland as a member of the European Economic Monetary Union (EMU). We estimate the model with Bayesian methods using time series for both Ireland and the rest of the EMU for the period from 1997:Q1 to 2008:Q2. We find that housing preference and technology shocks are the main drivers of fluctuations in house prices and residential investment. A standard regression analysis shows that a good part of the variation of housing preference shocks can be explained by unmodeled demand factors that have been considered in the empirical literature as important determinants of Irish house prices.

Addressing International Empirical Puzzles: the Liquidity of Bonds

Abstract: Models that assume bonds denominated in different currencies are perfect substitutes can not explain certain empirical puzzles: the exchange rate volatility puzzle is that these models can not explain the observed volatility in real and nominal exchange rates; the Backus-Smith puzzle is that these models can not explain the observed low correlation between real exchange rates and the ratio of home to foreign consumption; the Backus-Kehoe-Kydland puzzle is that these models can not explain the observed low correlation between home and foreign consumption; and finally, the uncovered interest parity puzzle is that these models can not explain the observed deviations from that parity. These long standing puzzles make the models harder to defend. In this paper, we present a symmetric two country portfolio balance model in which home and foreign bonds are imperfect substitutes for money in each country’s transactions technology; this of course makes home and foreign bonds imperfect substitutes for each other. Our calibrated model is capable of addressing the Backus-Smith puzzle and the Backus-Kehoe-Kydland puzzle. It does not fully resolve the exchange rate volatility puzzle, but it makes some headway. And finally it generates deviations from uncovered interest parity, though by some estimates these deviations are not large enough to be consistent with the data.

Determinants of Different Modes of FDI: Firm-Level Evidence from Japanese FDI into the US

Abstract: There are four major modes through which firms undertake foreign direct investment (FDI) – merger and acquisition (M&A), joint venture (JV), new plant (NP) and others (O). The four modes of FDI are distinct from each other, and each has its own unique advantages and disadvantages. While a large and growing empirical literature examines the determinants of FDI, very few studies examine the determinants of different modes of FDI. The central objective of this paper is to empirically analyze the extent to which the determinants of FDI such as firm size influences the choice of one mode of FDI over another. Our analysis follows a stylized two-stage investment process. First, we look at the probability of whether a Japanese firm is willing to undertake FDI in the US. Second, for firms that are willing to undertake FDI, we analyze which mode of FDI - i.e. M&A, joint venture, new plant or other FDI – they will undertake. The second stage is the innovation of this paper and its contribution to the FDI literature.

Business Conditions and Exit Risks Across Countries

Abstract: The risk of market exit that business firms face is significant and differs widely across countries. This paper explores the links between countries’ business conditions and the exit risk at the country level. We set up a general equilibrium model which allows us to derive sharp predictions concerning how key factors which shape a country’s business and trade environment impact on the exit risk of firms which operate in these environments. The model is able to explain the negative correlation between countries’ average labor productivity and the perceived risks of exit borne out in the facts and its predictions accord with evidence on country differences in business conditions.

The Performance of Simple Fiscal Policy Rules in Monetary Union

Abstract: The paper analyses the stabilising potential of simple fiscal policy rules for a small open economy in monetary union in a 2-region DSGE model with nominal and real rigidities. We consider simple fiscal instrument rules for government purchases, transfers, and consumption, labour and capital taxes in analogy to interest rate rules in monetary policy. The paper finds a dichotomy in the welfare effects of fiscal policy for liquidity-constrained and intertemporal optimising households, i.e. policies enhancing the welfare of one group tend to reduce the welfare of the other one. The moderate average welfare gains from optimal policy contrast with potentially large welfare losses from non-optimal policy. Fiscal rules that respond to employment fluctuations may be preferred to fiscal rules responding to indicators of price competitiveness, because optimal policy corresponds more closely to the idea of countercyclical stabilisation in the former case. The simulations also emphasise the crucial impact of the budgetary closure rule on the welfare consequences of fiscal business-cycle stabilisation.

Management Quality, Ownership, Firm Performance and Market Pressure in Russia

Abstract: We investigate whether management quality explains firm performance in Russia. We find that it explains relatively little in terms of firm performance, but it does explain some of the differences between firms in Russia’s Far East and the rest of Russia. Firms that have always been in private ownership perform better than state-owned firms. While management practices may not yet affect firm performance in a measurable way, they may do so in the future. This conjecture motivates us to look at the determinants of firms’ adoption of good management practices. We find that market pressure, both in the product and the labour market, has some impact on adoption of management practices, in particular in the Far East. It thus appears that the economy in Russia’s Far East may function according to different rules than in the rest of Russia, as market forces seem to be stronger there, in particular, because the Far East is more exposed to foreign competition than the rest of Russia.

Discretionary Government Consumption, Private Domestic Demand, and Crisis Episodes

Abstract: This paper analyzes the dynamic impact of discretionary government consumption purchases on private demand. Using a panel of 132 countries from 1960 to 2008, we find that while discretionary changes in government consumption lead to crowding-in effects in the short run, crowding-out effects take over in the medium run. In addition, we also find that both short-term crowding-in and medium-term crowding out effects are amplified once we control for periods of crisis.

Multilateral Export Decompositions

Abstract: We analyze exports along five margins to observe the changes of newly exported products, products removed from the export market, and continuously traded products to new, old, and exited destinations on export growth. We find export shares differ between developing and developed countries: 1) entering and exiting products are an important source of export value, but more so for developing than developed countries, 2) that continuously exported products to new destinations are a more important source of export value for developing than developed countries, 3) that though the removal of exiting products has a large impact on export value, the removal of products from one destination that continue to be exported elsewhere results in little loss to total export value, and 4) that larger and richer exporting countries have less opportunity to increase exports from new destinations than smaller and poorer exporting countries. Understanding the change in these margins across different types of countries may be important for formulating trade agreements and targeting of new trade partners.

What if the UK had Joined the Euro in 1999

Abstract: The issue of whether the UK should join the European single currency has been fiercely debated for the past two decades. However little research has been devoted to forecasting hypothetical projections for important UK economic variables, assuming that the UK had in fact joined the euro at its inception in 1999. This paper focuses on estimating counterfactual series for two key macroeconomic variables: unemployment and output. We do this by estimating Phillips curves for the UK, which we then use to compute counterfactual series for what unemployment and output may have looked like for the UK had they adopted the single currency in 1999. Based on the comparison of our forecasts with observed data, we find that the UK was correct in not joining the euro; had they adopted the European single currency in 1999, unemployment would have been higher and output would have been lower.

Heterogeneous Productivity and the Gains from Trade and FDI

Abstract: Nontraded goods account for a major share of GDP in most economies, but have not been incorporated in the welfare analysis of monopolistic-competition models with heterogeneous productivity. This paper extends Helpman, Melitz and Yeaple (American Economic Review 94(1):300–316, 2004) to explore welfare effects in the presence of a nontraded good. We derive new analytical results about how the gains from trade and FDI are determined and affected by key parameters in the case of symmetric countries. The model is calibrated to a country group that includes all major developed countries. The gains from openness (trade and FDI) are found to be substantial (between 3.24 and 6.27 per cent of income) even if nontraded goods represent a major part of the economy. Most of these gains are attributed to trade rather than FDI.

What Causes Banking Crises? An Empirical Investigation for the World Economy

Abstract: We add the Bernanke-Gertler-Gilchrist model to a world model consisting of the US, the Euro-zone and the Rest of the World in order to explore the causes of the banking crisis. We test the model against linear-detrended data and reestimate it by indirect inference; the resulting model passes the Wald test only on outputs in the two countries. We then extract the model’s implied residuals on unfiltered data to replicate how the model predicts the crisis. Banking shocks worsen the crisis but ‘traditional’ shocks explain the bulk of the crisis; the non-stationarity of the productivity shocks plays a key role. Crises occur when there is a ‘run’ of bad shocks; based on this sample Great Recessions occur on average once every quarter century. Financial shocks on their own, even when extreme, do not cause crises—provided the government acts swiftly to counteract such a shock as happened in this sample.

The Simple Analytics of Sudden Stops

Abstract: Currency crises in emerging and developing countries have often been characterized by “sudden stops” of capital flows. A variety of mechanisms have been adduced to explain the emergence of this phenomenon. This paper integrates these mechanisms into a simple and transparent analytical model in which currency mismatches, large current account deficits, and large stocks of short-term debt interact with low reserve stocks to generate dual equilibria. In this context, the “panic” equilibrium is characterized by a currency crisis, a sudden stop, and an output collapse. The potential for various policies to avoid this outcome is explored, as are the implications of the analysis for reserve accumulation.

EMU, EU, Market Integration and Consumption Smoothing

Abstract: By taking a new approach to the study of the impact of EMU on consumption smoothing, centering on consumption volatility and therefore on smoothing more directly, we find that even though EMU tends to smooth consumption, it is not through cross-country property and claims. Rather it comes through the promotion of the tradability of goods, capital in particular: specifically, the encouragement of price competition, contestable home markets, ability to borrow and buy insurance at home, and the harmonization of regulations. Some of the consumption smoothing may also depend on EU membership rather than EMU as such but EMU adds to it. As a fundamental part of the analysis, the paper uses a new index of currency union which focuses on the ratio of trade with other countries sharing the same currency relative to total foreign trade.

Financial Factors in the Business Cycle of a Small Open Economy: The Case of Korea

Abstract: Financial factors influencing the business cycle have received considerable attention in recent years in the aftermath of the global financial crisis in 2008. This paper examines the role of financial factors in the business cycle by considering Korea, a small open economy, that experienced a severe financial crisis in 1997 as well as the recent global financial crisis. We estimate small open economy Bayesian DSGE (dynamic stochastic general equilibrium) models with financial factors and analyze the role of these financial factors in the business cycle in the context of Korea. The results indicate that the model based on an endogenous financial accelerator and a modified monetary policy rule provides a better explanation to the data than that without the financial factors and justify the recent attention to financial factors influencing the business cycle.