Showing papers in "Population and Development Review in 1999"

The effect of household wealth on educational attainment: evidence from 35 countries.

Abstract: The authors use household survey data from the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) from 44 surveys (in 35 countries) to document different patterns in the enrollment and attainment of children from rich and poor households. They overcome the lack of income or expenditure data in the DHS by constructing a proxy for long-run wealth of the household from the asset information in the surveys, using the statistical technique of principal components. There are three major findings. First, the enrollment profiles of the poor differ across countries but fall into distinctive regional patterns: in some regions the poor reach nearly universal enrollment in first grade, but then drop out in large numbers leading to low attainment (typical of South America), while in other regions the poor never enroll in school (typical of South Asia and Western/Central Africa). Second, there are enormous differences across countries in the “wealth gap,” the difference in enrollment and educational attainment of the rich and poor. While in some countries the difference in the median years of school completed of the rich and poor is only a year or two, in other countries the wealth gap in attainment is 9 or 10 years. Third, the attainment profiles can be used as diagnostic tools to suggest issues in the educational system, such as the extent to which low attainment is attributable to physical unavailability of schools.

International Migration at the Dawn of the Twenty-First Century: The Role of the State

Abstract: This note reviews recent theoretical and empirical work on the determinants and efficacy of state immigration policies to draw conclusions about the future direction of policy regimes throughout the globe and their likely effects. An age of increasingly restrictive immigration policies is emerging, but it is still unclear how effective these policies will be in controlling the volume and composition of international migration. States can be located along a continuum of efficacy with respect to the imposition of restrictive policies. Unfortunately virtually all research done to date has focused on the effectiveness of restrictive policies in major immigrant-receiving developed countries. More research needs to be done to determine just how effective restrictive immigration policies can be under varying degrees of state capacity.

Family Demography, Social Theory, and Investment in Social Capital

Abstract: Many demographers trained in sociology frame their work with ideas from economics if only implicitly. While economic concepts are of great value the field of demography especially family demography can benefit from the introduction of sociological theory and conversely sociological theory can be enhanced and refined by the work of social demographers. The authors discuss social capital a concept based in sociology which is being widely incorporated into current social science. The social capital concept is an extension of the social exchange theory commonly used by family demographers. It shares with neoclassical economics and materialist anthropology the premise that demographic phenomena are the outgrowth of human behavior. According to social exchange theory exchange takes place in a variety of institutional contexts including but not limited to the markets which economists usually envision. Another premise of social exchange theory is that exchange occurs between individuals who are known to each other as well as between the anonymous traders of economic exchange. The authors advance and defend the notions that in the context of social exchange theory investing in social capital is a major motivation for human behavior and that the formation of sexual partnerships the birth and rearing of children and both intragenerational and intergenerational transfers are major forms of investment in social capital in almost all societies.

Is Low Fertility a Temporary Phenomenon in the European Union

Abstract: This article explores whether childbearing postponement could reduce total fertility rate in European Union (EU) countries. It is computed based on an age- and parity-specific period model (Bongaarts-Feeney) and a set of cohort recuperation scenarios used in the 1995 population projections of Belgium. In recent years majority of the countries showed that a mere halt to childbearing postponement would fail to restore period total fertility rates to the vicinity of replacement-level fertility. It would require an increase in the quantum of fertility and/or complete reversal of the trend toward later ages in the timing of childbearing in achieving replacement level. The key determinants of fertility tempo and quantum in EU union include female education female labor force participation ideational changes and patterns of union formation especially of union instability. The outcome for the EU is that the period total fertility rates are highly likely to remain below the replacement level even if the trend toward childbearing delays the stop. The three phases in the development and prolongation of below-replacement fertility in the EU union are further differentiated.

Is Fertility Behavior in Our Genes? Findings from a Danish Twin Study

Abstract: This paper explores whether fertility behavior is in the genes. The study sample includes birth cohorts of Danish twins ranging from 1870 to 1910 and from 1953 to 1964. The two periods of substantial fertility change which are represented through the experiences of the samples include: 1) demographic transition with the emergence of deliberate fertility control and low fertility levels; and 2) Europes second demographic transition below replacement fertility and widespread use modern contraception as well as individualism. Data were obtained from the Danish Twin Registry. It presents various variables along with the description of sample composition. The heritability of fertility outcomes and changes over time was investigated. It determines whether genetic influences of fertility are mediated through genetic influences on education and scholastic attainment. It reveals whether the genetic effects influence the transitions to higher parities or the transition from zero to the first child. The analysis of the pattern of heritability which differs across cohorts and genders is explored. Yet it did not include the aspects of human reproduction that influenced by genetic dispositions. The respective estimates for shared environmental and genetic influences for the age at first attempt to have a child is also reported. An appendix is included containing the technical details of the estimation that are omitted in the main text.

The spread of primary schooling in Sub-Saharan Africa: implications for fertility change.

Abstract: STATE EDUCATIONAL POLICIES are a critical aspect of the economics of family building in all societies, as well as a primary means of socialization by the state. Caldwell (1980) hypothesized that the onset of the fertility transition in developing countries would be linked with the achievement of “mass formal schooling,” by which he meant near-universal enrollment of children in primary or basic schooling. In sub-Saharan Africa, a region in which the fertility transition has begun in some countries but not in others, this hypothesis remains untested. In all of these countries, formal schooling is a foreign import, imposed in a variety of ways over the last century by colonial regimes and foreign churches. In more recent years, as former colonies have gained their independence, most governments have made significant budgetary commitments to education, and educational systems have been revised and reformed to serve the goals of independent states. Today, the educational systems arrayed across the African continent show enormous variation, with many retaining strong links to their colonial roots. Some countries have achieved near-universal enrollment at the primary-school level, but most have not. In many, gender gaps in enrollment rates are closing but, in others, this gap remains large despite significant progress. Two decades have passed since the publication of Caldwell’s (1980) article on “Mass education as a determinant of the timing of fertility decline.” The links he hypothesized between mass schooling and fertility were based largely on the historical experience of the West, where state enforcement of compulsory schooling laws was the rule. In that article, he faulted much of the literature on education and fertility in developing countries for having neglected the more immediate impact of children’s schooling on the

The Bangladesh Fertility Decline: An Interpretation

Abstract: Bangladeshs fertility transition has attracted more theoretical interest than any other contemporary transition. Among countries where there has not been a coercive government family planning program Bangladesh is the poorest to have a total fertility rate under 5 births/woman. Only Vietnam has a fertility level similar to Bangladeshs at a comparably low per capita income but its per capita purchasing power is 60% higher its mortality is much lower and its family planning program is somewhat coercive. A World Bank study on the determinants of reproductive change in Bangladesh determined that no change was needed in the levels of economic development urbanization womens employment or education for the family planning program to succeed. Rather sustained political commitment at the highest levels to an effective family planning program was the key to Bangladeshs successful fertility transition. The authors investigated whether the experimental conditions of the Bank study were good enough to warrant the findings. Data were drawn from Bangladesh statistical information and a joint research program on fertility decline conducted by the Extension Project of the International Center for Diarrheal Disease Research Bangladesh and the Australian National University.

Completing the Demographic Transition

Abstract: This article proposes a procedure for quantifying the four components of future population growth including fertility mortality migration and the current distribution of population by age. This would also provide simple analytic expressions that yield to estimate the impact of alterations in factors from the four components. It aims to improve the conception concerning demographic factors that ascertain long-range population growth. Studies documented that despite ongoing declines in fertility in several countries still the population will be experiencing a period of rapid expansion by the end of the demographic transition. There are three causes of this growth identified and quantified. These include fertility above replacement level of two surviving children per woman; continuing declines in mortality; and population momentum resulting from a young age structure. This article concluded that population momentum is shown to be the main cause of future growth in most countries and regions.

Urban Growth in Developing Countries: A Review of Projections and Predictions

Abstract: Comparison of the United Nations' earliest and most recent projections to the year 2000 suggests that urban and city growth in developing regions has occurred much more slowly than was anticipated as recently as 1980. A modified “urban population explosion” in developing countries since the 1970s conforms to explanatory models of urban growth developed by economists around 1980. Trends in productivity and terms of trade, in particular, have been highly favorable to agriculture as compared to manufacturing, presumably slowing migration to urban centers. Increases in national population growth rates have produced less than commensurate increases in rates of city growth, further supporting an economic and migration-related explanation for unexpectedly slow recent urban growth. Despite the efforts of the United Nations to maintain reliable statistics on urban and city populations, urban population projections should be interpreted with caution because of inadequacies of the data on which they are based. Moreover, current projections that virtually all world population growth in the future will occur in urban areas of developing countries may be misconstrued, if the forces that have retarded urban growth in recent years persist.

The persistence of outmoded contraceptive regimes: The cases of Mexico and Brazil

Abstract: This paper illustrates the persistence of outmoded contraceptive regimes with experiences drawn from Mexico and Brazil. It is noted that these countries have experienced substantial declines in fertility but that they have had widely different experiences in the realm of population policy. Mexico illustrates how government policies and styles of implementing them may outlive the conditions for which they were originally designed. Brazil shows how far more laissez-faire approaches can also yield perverse unwanted outcomes. Overall it is highlighted that the patterns of contraceptive delivery and practice that emerged in rural Mexico and in Brazil were strongly influenced by circumstances that were present in the early phases of the respective fertility transitions but that have long since disappeared. In the existing circumstances these patterns are highly problematic well entrenched and irreversible. It is suggested that this dynamic is consistent with and driven by the wayward logic of path dependence.

India's Falling Sex Ratios

Abstract: This article reviews the principle lines of explanation for Indias low sex ratios by explaining the trend of increasing masculinization in the 20th century. Description regarding masculine bias illustrates the impact of either discrimination against girls and women or their inferior economic position. Two concerns are made to address masculine bias in sex ratios: historical test and the mortality paradox. Data indicated that the great decline in womens workforce was correlated with the historical fall in sex ratios (r = 0.90). The correlation between female literacy and sex ratio was very strong (r = 0.91). It showed that as the female literacy increased the sex ratio has fallen. The higher rates of population growth were associated with more masculine sex ratio. Moreover since falling mortality was the principal factor contributing to population growth an examination was made. The results showed a strong correlation between trends in death rates and sex ratio (r = 0.93). The author concluded that instead of relying on sex ratios or trends in death rates and sex ratio as indicators of womens position in the society direct measures of education employment mortality and life expectancy should be considered.

Malthusian models and Chinese realities: the Chinese demographic system 1700-2000.

Abstract: The authors summarize their current understanding of Chinese demographic behavior and confront the classic Malthusian model which has predominated in economic and demographic theory for the past 200 years. In so doing the authors build a stylized model of a Chinese demographic system to contrast with the ideal model first proposed by Malthus and elaborated by others. The Chinese demographic system not only provides an alternative demographic model to the Malthusian model of preventive and positive checks but the presumed universality of the Malthusian opposition needs qualification as does the currently prevailing understanding of Chinese society and economy during the past 3 centuries. Mortality nuptiality fertility and fictive kinship and adoption are identified as aspects of Chinese demographic behavior which persist today and differ from Western patterns. These aspects also temper the Malthusian understanding of comparative demographic behavior in general and China in particular.

Measuring Women's Work in Developing Countries

Abstract: While an extensive literature documents the need for better measures of women's work, few attempts have been made to construct suitable work typologies that could be applied throughout the developing world. The author argues that in addition to the descriptive utility of more-comprehensive measures of women's work, important analytical gains are to be made by applying better measures of work to a variety of research questions. Conventional labor force participation measures ignore an often substantial proportion of women's total productive activity, resulting in a limited understanding of the many processes that affect and are affected by women's work. The proposition is supported by examining an issue drawn from social demography—the relationship between women's work and decisionmaking relative to fertility in contemporary Egypt.

The Delayed Western Fertility Decline: An Examination of English‐Speaking Countries

Abstract: This paper argues that children were an increasing net burden throughout the 19th century in the countries of Britain Australia and the US. However this burden did not become overwhelming until the final decades of the century with the introduction of compulsory schooling and the spread of legislation protective of children. In particular the 1870s witnessed the onset of fertility decline through communication of birth control. Evidence supporting the central role of the printed word in causing the onset of marital fertility decline is provided by the near-simultaneity of the onset throughout the English-speaking world. Modern communication also produced near-simultaneous reactions to the early fertility decline. Other rival theories to explain the delay in the adoption of birth control and the decline in the birth rate in the English-speaking world are given.

How influential are demography journals

Abstract: This article analyzes the issue of knowledge dissemination for a set of demography journals for the years 1991-95. The sample journals examined in this study were limited to those covered by the Social Science Citation Index (SSCI) published by the Institute for Scientific Information (ISI). The Journal of Citation Reports was used in analyzing citation counts and citation frequency for years 1991-95 while SSCI was used in examining uncitedness. Findings showed that 64% of the articles published in demographic journals were cited at least once in the first 5 years. The probability of articles in major journals being cited was high compared with the articles in the minor journals. The ISI investigation stated that the average uncitedness rate in demography was relatively low. The uncited articles within 5 years following publication suggest that they were not important for science development. Moreover this article has produced some significant findings regarding the extent of specialization within the demography. It showed that communication among demographers was correlated to the communication process among sociologists psychologists and economists. Thus if demographers become attentive regarding critical and self-reflective reviews demography deserves to become an interdisciplinary social science.

Population Weights in the International Order

Abstract: Relative population sizes play little part in the international system A state's economic and military power is influenced by population size, but as one factor among many Formal relations among states exclude population from consideration by the principle of sovereign equality Three sources of possible change in this situation are explored, in which states would be “population-weighted” to a greater degree than before Convergence of productivity levels around the world, expected by many, would bring the economic and population rankings of states more into line Some convergence is occurring, but selectively and for the most part quite slowly Anticipation of its effect, however, influences the international order well in advance A second source of change is the necessity to allocate among states the use of global commons, particularly the atmosphere as a sink for greenhouse gases Acceptable remedies for this problem and perhaps for other global-level threats are likely to involve at least in part a per capita allocation principle And third, population weights will tend to be more prominent in futures in which states are less important—as envisaged, for example, in the more benign scenarios of global society

The global and regional impact of mortality and fertility transitions, 1950-2000.

Abstract: During the 1950s the world population especially in less developed regions (LDRs) experienced demographic changes at an unprecedented pace. While interest typically concerns the long-term implications of mortality and fertility trends into the 21st century fewer attempts are made to examine and assess how different the existing population is as a result of the past changes. This paper evaluates the impact of demographic changes in the second half of the 20th century on the existing population. This impact of past changes is measured by comparing prevailing demographic characteristics with the outcomes of retrospective counterfactual projections. Overall the review of the demographic consequences of changes in mortality and fertility regimes during the past 50 years leads to three conclusions. First it places existing fertility declines and the prospects for future fertility declines in perspective. Second the balancing out at the world level should not support a fatalistic view of short-term population growth either. Third although on average fertility declines have followed mortality declines and kept population growth in check regional diversity cannot support a homeostatic view of existing transitions in LDRs.

Smallpox in nineteenth-century India

Abstract: This study uses the large, but neglected, body of Indian historical demographic and health data to show that smallpox was a major killer in past times. At the start of the nineteenth century roughly 80 percent of India's population had no effective protection against the disease, and in these circumstances virtually everyone suffered from it in childhood. The main exception was Bengal, where the indigenous practice of inoculation greatly limited the prevalence of the disease. Smallpox case fatality in India was high—around 25–30 percent in unprotected populations—and significantly higher than estimated for unprotected populations in eighteenth-century Europe. Although vaccination reached India in 1802, the practice spread slowly during the first half of the nineteenth century. From the 1870s onward there were considerable improvements in vaccination coverage. The study demonstrates a close link between the spread of vaccination and the decline of smallpox. Whereas at the start of the nineteenth century the disease may have accounted for more than 10 percent of all deaths in India, by the end of the century smallpox had become a comparatively minor cause of death as a result of improved vaccination coverage.

Changing Food Production and Quality of Diet in India, 1947–98

Abstract: Systematic and critical evaluation, using food balance sheets, census population data, government surveys, food composition statistics, and estimates of the population's biological requirements, shows that the realized improvements in food supplies in India of the past five decades, while beneficial, have been insufficient to meet the nutritional needs of the average person in a population that grew from less than 350 million to nearly one billion during this period. The improvements also fall significantly short of meeting the needs of the clinically malnourished. Present per capita dietary energy intakes range from as high as 95 percent to as low as 50 percent of daily requirements. Additionally, comparison of past and present diets shows that as the composition of the diet has changed with time, its nutritional quality for many has deteriorated despite an apparent increase in overall food quantity. This has come about from changes in the production system that have emphasized wheat and rice crops at the expense of more nutritional pulses and coarse grains, and from widespread poverty that leaves high-quality animal foods beyond the means of most.

The long-term effect of the timing of fertility decline on population size

Abstract: Existing long-range population projections imply that the timing of the fertility transition has a relatively unimportant effect on long-term population size when compared with the impact of the level at which fertility is assumed eventually to stabilize However, this note shows that the effect of the timing of fertility decline is a function of the eventual fertility rate: the lower the eventual fertility rate, the greater the effect of the timing of the transition becomes This finding has important implications for projection methodology, as well as for policies related to the consequences of long-term levels of population size

Marital and fertility careers of Russian women born between 1910 and 1934.

Abstract: Women born in Russia in the early decades of this century grew up in a period characterized by profound societal changes. Their lives were affected by often devastating events, in particular World War II, that ravaged society when they were entering their childbearing years. This note presents a detailed demographic analysis of the marital and fertility careers of women born between 1910 and 1934 based on individual retrospective life histories, collected in the most recent (5 percent) 1994 microcensus of the Russian Federation. It assesses the influence of external events on age at first marriage, widowhood, divorce, childlessness, parity, and age at birth. A comparison with younger cohorts shows that the societal disturbances had strong temporary effects. However, the final outcomes were not influenced very much: completed fertility continued its slow, secular decline.

Evolutionary Theory and Historical Fertility Change

Abstract: This paper examined some of the literature on evolutionary approaches to fertility and assesses the implications of evolutionary models for demographic studies of long-term fertility change. It begins with an overview of the basic ideas of Darwinian theory as applied to demographic topics. Then follow an identification of the key intellectual contributions of such research and the consideration of the ways in which social and cultural change differ from more strictly biological evolution. Although the value of Darwinian approaches to demographic problems remains argumentative a few generalizations are cited. First that biological evolution has left all humans with a substantial substrate of shared physiological attributes and psychological disposition and second that upon this substrate humans erect elaborate and often diverse cultures. In terms of shared human inheritance it is emphasized that the value of a Darwinian approach seems indisputable. However the value of such conceptual frameworks for long-run analyses of fertility remains to be demonstrated. A number of suggestions for future research are given.

Corn and crisis: Malthus on the high price of provisions.

Abstract: The OED gives the following base definition of the word dearth: ‘dearness, costliness, high price’, though cautiously noting ‘This sense, though etymologically the source of those that follow, is not exemplified very early, and not frequent.’ It goes on to offer other usages: ‘A condition in which food is scarce and dear; often, in earlier use, a time of scarcity with its accompanying privations, a famine’ and ‘scarcity of anything, material or immaterial’. That there should be a link between high prices and food shortage is entirely natural given the nature of all pre-industrial economies, and therefore that the same word should have come to assume the range of meanings defined in the OED is not surprising. Yet achieving an effective understanding of some aspects of the nature of the relationship between the two has proved surprisingly elusive, given the central importance of the harvest in all economies until the recent past. Of the four necessities of life recognised by the classical economists, food, shelter, clothing, and fuel, the first was by far the most important. Amongst the poor three-quarters or more of all income might have to be devoted to food even in normal times, and in most European economies the great bulk of this expenditure went on bread grain. Little wonder, therefore, that the bounty or otherwise of the last harvest, which, together with the scale of any carryover from earlier years, determined current supply, and the prospects for the next harvest, which began to affect the price of grain many months before any corn was cut, were matters of such pressing concern to individuals, to communities, and to governments.

Longer life and population growth.

Abstract: Recent successes in prolonging the life spans of laboratory animals have raised the possibility of large increases in human longevity. The prospect of longer life is often greeted by fears of overpopulation. Kevles concerns which appeared on the opinion page of the New York Times are typical. He wrote that "forestalling death would inevitably worsen many of the social crises that we already see looming. It would increase population further burdening the planet--and might well create a generation gap of titanic proportions." In this article the authors use a simple mathematical model to show that longer life need not--and if current trends continue will not--lead to population growth. The authors distinguish between two types of post-reproductive life extension. Life-cycle telescoping occurs when death is postponed without affecting the timing of childbearing. The alternative is life-cycle stretching in which longer life is accompanied by delays in the timing of reproduction. The authors model shows that population growth will result from life-cycle telescoping but not from stretching. Stretching appears to be the more likely scenario judging from animal experiments evolutionary and behavioral theory and recent human experience. The authors conclude thus that current forecasts of an end to world population growth before the end of the 21st century may not be upset even by quite dramatic increases in human longevity. Similarly differential access to life-extension technology may not alter the population composition in favor of those who live longer. Life-cycle stretching may itself be an evolutionarily adaptive mechanism. (authors)

Measuring womens work in developing countries.

Abstract: In this article a work typology that addresses some of the shortcomings of the traditional labor force statistics was developed using Egypt as a test case. This typology identifies all forms of work--housework subsistence production income generation and nonfamilial employment--rather than just formal employment and yet distinguishes categories of work of increasing market orientation. Using a five-category typology researchers tested three aspects of the relationship between womens work and fertility in ways that would not have been possible had they relied on traditional dichotomous measures of work. With the work typology developed here the fertility relationship for a subsample of nearly 2000 currently married Egyptian women of reproductive age was examined. Results show that the only indication of an association between work and presence of a young child is the significant negative correlation between having a baby and being an income generator as opposed to an employee. Income generators and their husbands both have very low average educational levels suggesting that they are likely to be of low socioeconomic status and unable to afford private child care. The description and the multivariate analyses presented here suggest that reformulation of the standard approach to studying womens work can improve understanding of the processes of social and economic development in which womens lives are embedded.

Unraveling the Enigma of the Russian Mortality Crisis: A Review Essay on Charles M. Becker and David Bloom (eds.), The Demographic Crisis in the Former Soviet Union*

Abstract: Richard Stone, Some British Empiricists in the Social Sciences, 1650–1900 Arup Maharatna, The Demography of Famines: An Indian Historical Perspective Timothy W. Guinnane, The Vanishing Irish: Households, Migration, and the Rural Economy in Ireland, 1850–1914 Gail Kligman, The Politics of Duplicity: Controlling Reproduction in Ceausescu's Romania Rosalind P. Petchesky and Karen Judd (Eds.), Negotiating Reproductive Rights: Women's Perspectives Across Countries and Cultures

Cardiovascular and Tuberculosis Mortality: The Contrasting Effects of Changes in Two Causes of Death

Abstract: Tuberculosis was the largest source of deaths among younger adults, and cardiovascular disease among older adults, in the America of 1900. Decreases in deaths from tuberculosis since 1900 and cardiovascular disease since 1940 explain most of the mortality drops in those age groups over the century. This article, building on previous work by White and Preston, shows the results of increased survival from these two causes on the US population structure. Standard demographic cause-specific mortality calculations are used to generate life tables without deaths from cardiovascular disease or tuberculosis. Then fixed rates for these diseases from early in the century are assumed while all other causes of death are allowed to change as they did historically. Improvements in cardiovascular mortality and tuberculosis produce some seemingly illogical contrasts. More people are alive today because of the decrease in tuberculosis. Yet more deaths from cardiovascular disease have been prevented, and cardiovascular improvements have raised life expectancy more. Lower tuberculosis mortality had virtually no effect on the average age of the population. Lower cardiovascular mortality alone has raised that average more than all twentieth-century causes of improved mortality combined.