Showing papers in "Public Opinion Quarterly in 1987"

The focussed interview and focus groups continuities and discontinuities

Abstract: No one can be more surprised at my being here than I. Four years ago, I wrote myself a "self-emancipation proclamation," a one-page statement asserting that I would not again accept any invitation from any source to write a book, edit a book, write a paper, write a review article-or give a public lecture (unless it so happened that I had already written or edited that book, written that paper or review article, or assembled notes for the public lecture). Yet here I am. But what was one to do when an admired student of long ago turns out to be the president of the New York chapter of the professional organization that one's lifelong collaborator at Columbia had helped to found? (You will instantly recognize both allusions: the one to Alan Meyer, the other to Paul Lazarsfeld.) That did not provide many degrees of freedom. However, in accord with the spirit of that self-emancipating proclamation, I did prevail upon the organizers of this session to bill me unmistakably as indulging only in impromptu remarks. However, that doesn't mean that I've done no homework at all. I had to do some, or remain wholly silent. The truth of the matter is that there can't be many people in the field of social science and certainly none in the related field of marketing research who know less about focus groups than I. If there are, that spells trouble. So it was that when Alan broached the subject of focus groups to me, he enlisted my curiosity at once. It had been only a little while ago that Pat Kendall and I had learned of the widespread use of focus groups in marketing research. Perhaps we had been reading the "wrong" books and the "wrong" journals. At any rate, when this development was lately

That which we call welfare by any other name would smell sweeter an analysis of the impact of question wording on response patterns

Abstract: Responses to survey questions are dependent on the words used in the questions. Sometimes the alteration of words can completely change the response distribution without obviously changing the meaning or intent of the question. This situation occurs when "welfare" is used instead of "poor." In all contexts examined "welfare" produced much more negative and less generous responses than "poor." In addition the two terms appear to tap slightly different dimensions with "welfare" accessing notions of waste and bureaucracy that are untapped or tapped much less by "poor." Although the order of words in a question and the alteration of "small, simple" words in the query and response categories can alter the perceived meaning and response distribution of a question (Schuman and Presser, 1981; Payne, 1951), it is generally believed that abstract "concept" words that specify the object being evaluated or the state along which the object is being evaluated are particularly susceptible to variation. Fee (1979, 1981), for example, has shown that abstract words in common use in the mass media often mean very different things to different people. "Big government," for example, tapped four major definitional clusters: (1) welfare-statism, (2) corporatism, (3) federal control, and (4) bureaucracy. Similarly Smith (1981) found that "confidence" was defined in four distinct ways as (1) trust, (2) capability, (3) attention to common good, and (4) following respondent's self-interest. TOM W. SMITH iS Senior Study Director at the National Opinion Research Center, University of Chicago. This research was done for the General Social Survey project directed by James A. Davis and Tom W. Smith. The project is supported by the National Science Foundation, Grant No. SES-8118731. Public Opinion Quarterly Volume 51:75-83 ( 1987 by the American Association for Public Opinion Research Published by The University of Chicago Press / 0033-362X/87/0051-01/$2.50 This content downloaded from 157.55.39.78 on Tue, 21 Jun 2016 07:06:27 UTC All use subject to http://about.jstor.org/terms

Communications research since lazarsfeld

Abstract: It's time to ask what happened to what Lazarsfeld and Stanton (1944:vii) casually called' 'the discipline of communications research." Much of the history of this enterprise, discipline or not, can be written as a set of continuing arguments with Paul Lazarsfeld. Far from subsiding, these arguments have become more pointed in the last decade. Disciplines Communication | Social and Behavioral Sciences This journal article is available at ScholarlyCommons: http://repository.upenn.edu/asc_papers/246 COMMUNICATIONS RESEARCH SINCE LAZARSFELD

Experiments with the middle response alternative in survey questions

Abstract: A series of experiments shows (1) that people are significantly more likely to select the middle response alternative on an issue when it is explicitly offered to them as part of the question than when it is omitted; (2) that merely mentioning that there is a middle alternative, in the preface to the question, makes it more likely that respondents will select it, even though it is not offered to them as an explicit choice; (3) that the order in which the middle alternative is presented in the question-in the middle or last position-can make a significant difference in the results, but that a "recency bias" does not occur invariably, or consistently; and (4) that people who select a middle response alternative when it is offered would not necessarily answer the question in the same way as other respondents if forced to choose sides on the issue. Experiments by Schuman and Presser (1981) have shown that people are much more likely to select a middle response alternative on an issue when it is explicitly offered to them as part of the question than when it must be spontaneously volunteered. Offering respondents a middle alternative can therefore make a substantial difference in the distribution of opinion on an issue. But their research also shows that, if the data for the middle responses to both question forms (offered and omitted) are deleted from the analysis, there is usually no significant difference between the two forms in the percentage selecting one polar position on the issue or the other (e.g., increase or decrease). A researcher, they argue, would thus reach the same conclusion about the GEORGE F. BISHOP is Associate Professor of Political Science and a Senior Research Associate in the Behavioral Sciences Laboratory at the University of Cincinnati's Institute for Policy Research. This project was supported, in part, by grants from the National Science Foundation (SOC 78-07407 and SES 81-11404), and by a grant from the Procter & Gamble Company of Cincinnati, Ohio. The author would like to thank Jack Henry at PG Schuman and Presser, 1981:Ch. 4). Similarly, the conclusions Schuman and Presser have drawn about the effects of middle alternatives in survey questions may be limited to the topics with which they have experimented: marijuana, Vietnam, liberal-conservative, local education, and divorce (Schuman and Presser, 1981:163). A series of experiments we have done with three public policy matters-social security benefits, defense spending, and nuclear power plants-allow us to test the generality of their conclusions, not only about the effects of offering middle alternatives on response distributions but also about the effects of the order in which the middle alternative is presented to respondents. Such alternatives are usually presented at the end of the question, as in the one about social security benefits: "Do you think social security benefits should be increased, decreased, or continued at the present level?" Respondents may therefore choose the middle alternative, in part, because it is easier to remember when presented in the last position. By varying the order in which the middle alternative was read to respondents in two of the experiments we were able to test, further, the "recency" bias demonstrated by Schuman and Presser.

Changing conceptions of public opinion in the political process

Abstract: From the very outset in the 1930s, public opinion polling has been closely wedded to the study of popular democratic politics. The first issue of the Public Opinion Quarterly was produced in the rosy glow of the victory of the Gallup and Crossley polls over the Literary Digest and other "straw polls" in predicting the Roosevelt landslide over Landon in the 1936 presidential election, and featured an article by Archibald Crossley (1937) diagnosing this pivotal event. The same general survey research method may be used to explore the economist's "tastes and preferences," the psychologist's "attitudes," the sociologist's "norms," and the anthropologist's "cultural values," but the conventional label "public opinion" comes straight from the parlance of politics. All this being so, a discussion of public opinion in politics is a subject nearly as vast as that of public opinion more broadly speaking. And a commission to discuss its changing conception over 50 years within a very brief essay is a sobering challenge. Surely one could winnow the relevant literature down to its most profound and influential decile, drop all annotations, and still have a mere bibliography on the subject that would well exceed our allotted space. Therefore we must discard to right and left all manner of indispensable topics and classic citations. What remains from such heroic selectivity is bound to be idiosyncratic: and it is only fair to point out that the reader is receiving here but a sample of one essay out of a large number of quite discrepant ones that might be written on the topic. Once past this disclaimer, we may begin with a few of the broadest observations to be made. In retrospect, it seems clear in a degree that would delight William Fielding Ogburn that the growing intrenchment of the technology of public opinion assessment in the past 50 years has had a major impact not only on our understanding of detailed proper-

The image and the vote manipulating voters' preferences

Abstract: Concern is often expressed regarding the ability of campaign consultants to shape candidates' images and, thereby, influence electoral outcomes. Despite this concern, little attempt has been made to investigate whether candidates' images can be shaped in a way that affects the vote. Here, we examine the role of nonverbal aspects of candidate presentation on image making and voters' preferences. In a series of three related studies conducted at the time of the 1984 national election, the impact of different photographs of the same candidate is assessed. The results suggest that a candidate's image can be shaped in such a way as to manipulate voters' preferences. Can public relations experts manipulate the public's impression of political candidates? Can these "image brokers" exert an impact on electoral outcomes? These questions have been raised with increasing frequency by both journalists and political scientists. At stake is the belief in a responsible electorate-an electorate which is able to see the candidates for who they are and vote accordingly. Although image manipulation is a matter of growing concern, little systematic research has been conducted. Here, we provide a step in the empirical examination of this issue. In particular, we are interested in exploring whether or not it is possible to manipulate an individual's appearance in a way that affects both voters' judgments of the candidate and the choices they make at the ballot box. Our hypothesis is that image manipulation is possible and can have an impact on voters' preferences. Our reasoning is as follows. First, candidates themselves have an important impact on the vote. Apart SHAWN W. ROSENBERG is Assistant Professor of Social Psychology and Political Science in the School of Social Sciences, University of California, Irvine. PATRICK MCCAFFERTY is a graduate student in Political Science in the School of Social Sciences, University of California, Irvine. Public Opinion Quarterly Volume 51:31-47 ? by the American Association for Public Opinion Research Published by The University of Chicago Press / 0033-362X/87/0051-01/$2.50 This content downloaded from 207.46.13.62 on Mon, 10 Jul 2017 17:40:03 UTC All use subject to http://about.jstor.org/terms 32 Shawn W. Rosenberg with Patrick McCafferty from their political party affiliations and issue positions, the candidates' personal qualities importantly influence voters' choices. Second, the political reality of a candidate's personal qualities is a matter of the image that candidate projects. While subject to a number of influences, this image is importantly shaped by the nonverbal aspects of a candidate's presentation to the public. Appearance and style help determine what kind of person the voters perceive the candidate to be. Third, the image a candidate projects may be shaped. Although party affiliation and ideology are relatively inflexible attributes, appearance and style are not. Given proper instruction, a candidate can be trained to look and act in a way that projects the kind of personal image that is attractive. In this mainer, citizens' perceptions of the candidate's personal qualities may be purposively manipulated and their vote affected. Hereafter, we will consider each step of the argument in

The illusion of intimacy television and the role of candidate personal qualities in voter choice

Abstract: The role of television in the increased candidate orientedness of voters in U.S. presidential elections was examined using data from eight National Election Studies conducted by the Survey Research Center at The University of Michigan. The importance of candidate personal qualities and traits was estimated using voter responses to open-ended questions about the candidates. Candidate personal qualities became more important for television dependent voters during the 1960s, and in each post-1964 election were less important for voters who relied on newspapers than for those who relied on television. The differences did not appear to be a function of the higher level of education of newspaper readers. The availability of over thirty years of carefully collected survey data has made possible the study of change in how voters choose among presidential candidates. An important finding of studies utilizing these data is the increased importance of candidate personal qualities (see, among others, Popkin et al., 1976; and Kirkpatrick et al., 1975). Coincident with this change has been the birth and development of television, now the most widely used medium of political information. This paper examines the role of television in the increased candidate-orientedness of the public, and offers empirical support for the proposition that television has facilitated and encouraged vote choices based upon the personal qualities of candidates. Television's potential for affecting the criteria of choice in elections was noted from the start. Looking ahead to the first "TV election," Jack Gould, television critic for the New York Times, wrote in the summer of 1952 that SCOTT KEETER is Director of the Commonwealth Poll in the Survey Research Laboratory, and Assistant Professor of Political Science at Virginia Commonwealth University. The data were made available by the Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research, which bears no responsibility for the analysis and interpretation presented here. The author wishes to thank John Brigham, William Gormley, Gerald Pomper, and this journal's anonymous reviewers who commented upon earlier drafts. Public Opinion Quarterly Volume 51:344-358 ?) 1987 by the American Association for Public Opinion Research Published by The University of Chicago Press / 0033-362X/87/0051-00/$2.50 This content downloaded from 207.46.13.115 on Sat, 08 Oct 2016 05:08:45 UTC All use subject to http://about.jstor.org/terms Candidate Personal Qualities and Voter Choice 345 a TV-aware electorate is not going to be voting for a man merely on the basis of his reputation, or his thoughts as recorded in the printed word, or his disembodied voice as it comes out of a loudspeaker. Television makes the candidate of today a human being at one's elbow, who is going to be judged on the same terms as a man greets any new acquaintance. (Gould 1972:21) Since then, television's image-making power is thought to have been influential in most elections, particularly in the Nixon-Kennedy debates, in Nixon's return to politics in 1968, and in Carter's campaign of trust and honesty in 1976. And yet the search for clear evidence of television's impact has been mostly futile. As Joseph Wagner's (1983) review of research indicates, except for event-specific or group-specific phenomena, the quantitative literature has for the most part confirmed the "minimal effects" thesis. Beyond this, content analyses of television and newspapers suggest that the two media present very similar images of candidates (Hofstetter, 1976; Meadow, 1973; Evarts and Stempel, 1974; Patterson, 1980). Voters' perceptions of the personal qualities of candidates do not appear to vary with the particular mix of their information sources (Patterson and McClure, 1976; Miller and Jackson, 1973). However, while voters may hold similar images of candidates regardless of how they obtain political information, the importance of candidate images-relative to other information-may be greater for voters who depend upon television. Despite similarities with other media, television by its nature provides a qualitatively different product. It provides the candidate as a person. This is a function of the visual and actual nature of television's content, and is reinforced by practices of its news organizations and personnel that serve to downplay cognitive content. Doris Graber's analysis of campaign news on television and newspapers supports this view: The skimpiness of television issue coverage, particularly the dearth of quotes by candidates, meant that people who relied primarily on television for campaign information learned little about the candidates' stands on issues and even less about the candidates' priorities. This left the television viewer with information weighted heavily in favor of using characteristics of the man, rather than issue positions, as voting criteria. (Graber, 1976:300301). Wagner (1983:415-426) provided evidence that the television's slighting of issues leaves the television-dependent voter less able to discriminate between candidates on the basis of issues (see also Clarke and Fredin, 1978). Thus, voters choose as best they can. Television makes information about candidates personal qualities cheaper to obtain than This content downloaded from 207.46.13.115 on Sat, 08 Oct 2016 05:08:45 UTC All use subject to http://about.jstor.org/terms

THE PERSISTENCE OF POLITICAL ATTITUDES AMONG 1960s CIVIL RIGHTS ACTIVISTS

Abstract: A scattering of recent research has studied the current political beliefs and attitudes of individuals identified as "1960s activists." In contrast to much of the treatment accorded such people in the popular media, this research tends to find most of these activists currently liberal on a wide variety of political topics. However, in the absence of panel data, most of this research has had to assess any change in the activists' attitudes either by assuming the activists' past positions or by trusting to their retrospective reports. In this paper we report on panel data from a large group of white activists, mostly students, who spent the summer of 1965 organizing voter registration drives in Southern black communities. In some specific areas on which the activists tended to hold rather extreme positions in 1965, they may have moderated by 1984. However, their overall pattern of response on a wide variety of issues is basically stable over this twenty-year period. Apparitions from the 1960s haunt the nation's rostrums, debating the topics of today. Neither Jerry Rubin nor Abbie Hoffman occupies a position of power or excels in the arts or in sports or in any other field notorious. Yet the audiences come, and the mass media ogle these two middle-aged men whose celebrity rests wholly on the radical Yippie postures of their youth. Rubin is the star. His opinions, proscriptions, analyses, and persona have moderated with age. Although no Reaganite, he has come to see the virtues of hard work, the system, the society, and the coin of the realm. Hard as it may be to believe, he is GERALD MARWELL iS Professor of Sociology at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. MICHAEL T. AIKEN iS Professor of Sociology and Dean of the College of Arts and Sciences at the University of Pennsylvania. N. J. DEMERATH III is Professor of Sociology at the University of Massachusetts-Amherst. Research for this paper was funded in part by National Science Foundation Grant No. SES-8408693. Additional funding was provided by the Wisconsin Alumni Research Foundation. We would like to thank Irene Giniat and Mimi Kim for their assistance and Lawrence Bobo for his suggestions. Public Opinion Quarterly Volume 51:359-375 C 1987 by the American Association for Public Opinion Research Published by The University of Chicago Press / 0033-362X/87/0051-00/$2.50 This content downloaded from 207.46.13.118 on Sun, 11 Sep 2016 05:58:34 UTC All use subject to http://about.jstor.org/terms 360 Gerald Marwell, Michael T. Aiken, and N. J. Demerath Ill now a stockbroker. He plays for us the prodigal son, lets us assign radicalism to the callowness of youth, and gives proof to the adage that age brings wisdom-or at least greater conservatism. Hoffman has received less attention. Unrepentant, seemingly unchanged in philosophy, he argues still for the bankruptcy of the system, against the confinement of the mores, and for the ability of the middleaged to retain the ideals and meanings of their youth. Of course, he is not himself as active nor as prominent as before. It is not his time. But he sees himself as having retained his moral and philosophical integrity. He is, perhaps, less interesting. Stability is seldom as good a story as change. Let these two icons stand for opposing propositions about the philosophical life cycle of aging activists. DeMartini (1983:196) has summarized the literature, contrasting the position of Eisenstadt (1956), Parsons (1963), and fellow travelers with the views of Mannheim (1952), Braungart (1974), and others. The former take the "Rubin" view that "political protest [is] a result of youthful idealism which will mellow with age and the pressures of work-role socialization," while the latter see Hoffman as representing the expectation that "the unique historical experiences and family socialization of the youth generation lay the foundation for a political commitment that will influence future adult politics." Noting the meager supply of empirical research that might be used to adjudicate between these two positions, DeMartini nevertheless summarizes the available data. He concludes that Hoffman is probably somewhat more representative of the activists studied, although there is some truth to the "mellowing" hypothesis as well. The studies seem to suggest that former activists remain relatively active but that their activism moves toward more conventional political processes and away from uninstitutionalized practices such as demonstrations and civil disobedience. Unfortunately, all of this research has severe shortcomings for addressing the central issues. As an example, consider the often-cited work of Nassi (1981). Thirteen years after the Free Speech Movement sit-in in Sproul Hall on the Berkeley campus (1964), she obtained a list of the "800" students who had been arrested (the San Francisco Examiner (1985), using presumably the same list, reports the number as 783). From that population Nassi finally generated a total of 30 respondents, all of whom lived in San Francisco. The San Francisco Examiner's recent special issue interviewed 49, which represented 38% of their selected subsample. In fact, five of the seven studies cited by DiMartini have 40 or fewer subjects and can hardly lay claim to representative samples. The two studies he reviews that have larger samples also make little effort to assure representativeness. For example, Meyer and Maidenberg (1970) used a mail-out and simply accepted the This content downloaded from 207.46.13.118 on Sun, 11 Sep 2016 05:58:34 UTC All use subject to http://about.jstor.org/terms Sixties Civil Rights Activists 361 low response rate that resulted. An equally important limitation of these two studies, however, is that each examines attitude change over a period of less than five years. Thus, neither can be said to follow the activists from "youth" to "maturity." A second, equally important problem is that none of these studies actually measures attitude change, since they do not follow the activists' attitudes and beliefs over time. For example, Nassi reports on no measures of her subjects' attitudes or beliefs in 1964. At one point she says that "Their radicalism has . . . waned over the intervening years, and they seem less resolved that change occur only outside of the political system," but she has no data from which she could conclude that her subjects felt any differently in 1964 than they did in 1977. She has only her own (and the press's) assumptions about how these individuals would have answered similar questions when they were

Return postage in mail surveys a meta-analysis

Abstract: This paper describes a five-step procedure for meta-analysis. Especially important was the contacting of authors of prior papers. This was done primarily to improve the accuracy of the coding; it also helped to identify unpublished research and to supply missing information. Application of the five-step procedure to the issue of return postage in mail surveys yielded significantly more papers and produced more definitive conclusions than those derived from traditional reviews. This meta-analysis indicated that business reply postage is seldom costeffective because first class postage yields an additional 9% return. Business reply rates were lower than for other first class postage in each of the 20 comparisons. This paper describes a procedure for meta-analysis and applies it to a problem in survey research. The conclusions from conventional literature reviews are contrasted with those from meta-analysis. Meta-analysis appears to be a more rigorous method by which to integrate results from prior research, especially when previous studies have led to conflicting results. The experiment by Cooper and Rosenthal (1980) suggests that meta-analysis provides larger estimates of effects and better-supported conclusions than a conventional reviewing process. Meta-analysis differs from the traditional literature review in that it emphasizes formal procedures for the search, selection, and analysis of prior studies. Detailed discussions of the procedures for meta-analysis are provided in Glass, McGaw, and Smith (1981), Hunter, Schmidt, and Jackson (1982), and Green and Hall (1984).

Physician Response to a Mailed Survey: An Experiment in Timing of Payment

Abstract: This article reports the results of an experiment in obtaining physician response to a mailed questionnaire. Each physician was eligible for a payment of $20. A randomly selected half received the payment with their initial questionnaire and cover letter; half were told they would receive their payment after they completed and returned the questionnaire. The same mail and telephone followup procedures were used for both groups. Overall, prepayment had significant positive effects on response rates. This paper examines these effects in terms of response rates for various specialties, field efficiencies, cost, and representativeness of the sample. The ability to make unbiased inferences about populations based on sample survey data depends on having complete information about all selected sample units or establishing that the nonrespondents do not differ from respondents in any important way (Fowler, 1984). Since it is difficult to rule out biased nonresponse, it is desirable to obtain high response rates. This can be especially challenging with some populations. Physicians, for example, are widely believed to be a difficult population from which to collect survey data (Sudman, 1985). Physicians are frequently SANDRA H. BERRY is Director of the Survey Research Group and DAVID E. KANOUSE iS Senior Behavioral Scientist at the Rand Corporation. This research was supported by the National Institutes of Health, Office of Medical Applications of Research, under Contract N01-OD-2-2128. The authors are grateful to Don Dillman, Gus Haggstrom, and two anonymous reviewers for helpful comments on the paper, and to Ellyn Bloomfield, Susan Goulet, and Joyce Simmons for assistance with the research. An earlier draft of this paper was presented at the 1985 Annual Conference of the American Association for Public Opinion Research. Public Opinion Quarterly Volume 51:102-114 ? by the American Association for Public Opinion Research Published by The University of Chicago Press / 0033-362X/87/0051-01/$2.50 This content downloaded from 157.55.39.203 on Thu, 20 Oct 2016 04:13:53 UTC All use subject to http://about.jstor.org/terms Timing of Payment in a Mailed Survey 103 approached for surveys, the demands on their time are great, and their office staffs are vigilant in protecting them. As key decisionmakers in the health system, however, physicians are of considerable research interest, and a good deal of effort has been devoted to improving methods of obtaining information from them. Much of this effort has focused on providing physicians with financial incentives to participate in research. In this paper, we report the results of an experiment that tested the timing of payment in a mailed survey of physicians. The results are not only of practical interest, they also raise important questions about how payment "works" in eliciting high response rates.

The Impact of Investigative Reporting on Public Opinion and Policymaking: Targeting Toxic Waste

Abstract: This article reports the fourth in a continuing series of case studies that explore the impact of news media investigative journalism on the general public, policymakers, and public pol- icy. The media disclosures in this field experiment had limited effects on the general public but were influential in changing the attitudes of policymakers. The study describes how changes in public policymaking resulted from collaboration between journal- ists and government officials. The authors develop a model that is a beginning step toward specifying the conditions under which media investigations influence public attitudes and agendas. This article reports the fourth in a series of field experiments that test the agenda-setting hypothesis (McCombs and Shaw, 1972) for news

Political campaigns and the knowledge-gap hypothesis

Abstract: The knowledge-gap hypothesis suggests that a sudden infusion of information into a social setting serves to increase, rather than decrease, the gap in knowledge between highand low-status voters. Political campaigns represent an especially appropriate setting to test this hypothesis, because of (1) the increased information that generally characterizes campaigns and (2) the important political consequences to lower status voters if the hypothesis is correct. A two-wave panel survey during the 1978 New Hampshire gubernatorial campaign finds that on one issue the knowledge gap increased during the campaign, while on another, perhaps less complex issue, the gap remained constant. These differences are hypothesized to be a function of different diffusion curves of the highand low-status voters, with implications for the varying lengths of time states allow for campaigns between the primary and general elections. In recent years, the scholarly literature on mass communications has introduced the concept of a "knowledge gap." It is of prime significance to students of politics, for it suggests that the effect of the mass media in transmitting political messages is to increase the gap in knowledge between highand low-status voters, and thus further enhance the significant information (and thus power) advantage that high-status voters already enjoy. As first presented by Tichenor, Donohue, and Olien (1970:159), the knowledge gap hypothesis states that "as the infusion of mass media information into a social system increases, segments of the population with higher socioeconomic status (SES) tend to acquire this information at a faster rate than the lower status segments, so that the gap in knowledge between these segments tends to increase." The consequence of this "relative deprivation of knowledge," argue the authors, is that it may also lead to the "relative deprivation of power" (Donohue, Tichenor, and Olien, 1975:4). DAVID W. MOORE iS Professor of Political Science at the University of New Hampshire. Public Opinion Quarterly Volume 51:186-200 ? 1987 by the American Association for Public Opinion Research Published by The University of Chicago Press 1 0033-362X/87/0051-00I$2 50 This content downloaded from 207.46.13.164 on Sun, 26 Jun 2016 06:15:13 UTC All use subject to http://about.jstor.org/terms Political Campaigns and the Knowledge-Gap Hypothesis 187 The finding that high-SES people are more informed and more likely to participate in politics than low-SES people is pervasive in political science literature, as is the conclusion that such information and participation gaps work to the advantage of the higher-status groups (Verba and Nie, 1972). But there are few studies that deal explicitly with the hypothesis that knowledge gaps increase as publicity increases. Cross-sectional studies are, of course, not able to examine such a dynamic change because of their one-time-point design. And of the several panel studies (at two or more points in time) that have examined the knowledge-gap hypothesis, the results do not in general support the notion of an increasing gap. In her comprehensive review of the relevant literature, Gaziano (1983) points out that among ten panel studies of knowledge-gap phenomena, four indicate declining gaps (Brown, Ettema, and Luepker, 1981; Douglas, Westley, and Chaffee, 1970; Galloway, 1976; and Genova and Greenberg, 1979); another three indicate stable gaps (Star and Hughes, 1950; Bogart 1957; Abbott, 1978); and one showed no gaps at either time of measurement. Only two panel studiesboth dealing with Sesame Street viewing-showed increasing gaps (Cook et al., 1975; and Minton, 1972, cited by Liebert, 1976). None of these studies, however, deals with election campaigns, yet such activities should represent an ideal setting to test the knowledgegap hypothesis. Campaigns almost always represent periods of significantly increased "infusion of mass media information into a social system," the type of context within which the knowledge gaps should increase, according to the authors of the hypothesis. Furthermore, the democratic implications of increasing knowledge gaps are perhaps more evident in electoral settings that in other periods of increased information. At the end of an election campaign the voters must make a decision, and the less-informed voters are presumably less able to vote in their own interests than are the better-informed, a case where the relative deprivation of knowledge does seem to translate into a relative deprivation of power. This paper reports on a study of the knowledge-gap hypothesis in a campaign setting in New Hampshire: the gubernatorial election of 1978. The results show that on the two most important issues of the contest, knowledge gaps did exist at both the beginning and end of the campaign. On one issue the gap increased, while on the other issue the gap remained constant. These results are tentatively "explained" within the framework of an information diffusion model, with important implications for the "ideal" length of time devoted to electoral campaigning. This content downloaded from 207.46.13.164 on Sun, 26 Jun 2016 06:15:13 UTC All use subject to http://about.jstor.org/terms

Using dual frame designs to reduce nonresponse in telephone surveys

Abstract: This article reports on the results of a series of experiments designed to improve response rates for telephone surveys. In three surveys telephone households were selected using both standard random digit dialing (RDD) techniques and lists of telephone numbers purchased from a commercial firm. In the RDD portions of the samples "cold contact" interviewing methods were used; in the list frame portions advance letters were mailed, and the listed household name was used in the introduction. Experiments were designed to test the effects on response rates of the advance letters and use of the listed household name as a means of establishing rapport. The advance letters increased response rates, but no difference could be attributed to the use of names. The mixture of RDD and list sampling techniques is also used to evaluate the effects of relative response rates on substantive findings. The cost consequences of these dual frame designs are assessed along a number of dimensions, and the cost and error components of these designs are discussed. Survey nonresponse error is partially a function of achieved response rates. The researcher's ability to increase response rates, in turn, depends on a number of survey design features-the topic of the survey, MICHAEL W. TRAUGOTT is Research Scientist in the Center for Political Studies, ROBERT M. GROVES is Associate Research Scientist in the Survey Research Center, and JAMES M. LEPKOWSKI is Assistant Research Scientist in the Survey Research Center, all at the University of Michigan. The data utilized in this paper were collected in conjunction with a contract with the Detroit News. Support for consideration of dual frame telephone survey designs was obtained from the U.S. Bureau of the Census. However, all of the analyses and interpretations presented here are the sole responsibility of the authors. The research assistance of Judy Connor and Kim Fridkin Kahn is gratefully acknowledged, as is the computing support of the University of Michigan. A version of this paper was presented at the annual meeting of the American Association for Public Opinion Research, St. Petersburg, Florida, 16-18 May 1986. Public Opinion Quarterly Volume 51:522-539 ? 1987 by the Amerncan Association for Public Opinion Research Published by The University of Chicago Press / 0033-362X/87/0051-04(1)/$2.50 This content downloaded from 157.55.39.180 on Mon, 25 Apr 2016 06:57:17 UTC All use subject to http://about.jstor.org/terms Dual Frame Designs to Reduce Nonresponse 523 the population studied, the efforts at refusal conversion, the duration of the interviewing period, information known about the sample persons, and a host of other factors. Inevitably, decisions regarding response rate goals require a balancing of the expected costs of these design attributes and the likely nonresponse error reduction which may result from them. When names, addresses, and telephone numbers are available on a frame, two techniques can be used to improve cooperation-advance letters or telephone calls informing sample persons that they have been selected for a study and indicating the need for cooperation in order to achieve accurate results. Brunner and Carroll (1967) found that an advance telephone call for a personal interview actually led to lower response rates. Groves and Magilavy (1981) observed that advance telephone calls for a telephone survey had no effect on final response rates in an RDD survey. Dillman, Gallegos, and Frey (1976) found that overall response rates were increased by about five percentage points using an advance letter, but that the content of the letter had little influence on the magnitude of the response rate increase. Sykes and Hoinville (1985) found no effect in a telephone survey in Great Britain. Brunner and Carroll (1969) found large increases in response rates to a telephone survey (30 percentage points) with a letter sent on university stationery, but a decline in response rates (6 percentage points) using one from a market research company. Response rates are also sensitive to the amount of effort used to contact sample households, but even this may be affected by characteristics of the sampling frame. The use of callbacks is a minimum condition for increasing response rates (Traugott, 1987), and refusal conversion techniques are also important for this purpose. In some surveys the number of callbacks is a fixed design feature, determined prior to the interviewing period. In other designs the maximum number of callbacks is determined by the length of the survey period. Since the time spent screening ineligible sample units detracts from time available for interviewing, the percentage of units on the sampling frame that are eligible can also affect response rates. In this way, the choice of sampling frame can have a consequence for nonresponse error. The achievement of high response rates is a goal linked not only to improved estimation of descriptive statistics but also increased confidence in measured relationships. While there has been considerable research on increasing response rates, there has been little on their effects on measured relationships between variables. This is ordinarily complicated by an inability to measure relationships for nonrespondents. The literature that does exist compares relationships between variables among cooperative and reluctant respondents (O'Neil, 1979; Smith, 1984). This content downloaded from 157.55.39.180 on Mon, 25 Apr 2016 06:57:17 UTC All use subject to http://about.jstor.org/terms 524 M. W. Traugott, R. M. Groves, and J. M. Lepkowski Telephone surveys based upon random digit dialed (RDD) samples have offered substantial advantages in reducing data collection costs relative to personal interview surveys, in large part because travel costs can be eliminated and the number of interviewers required to complete a given sample size is often smaller. The RDD method has, however, also resulted in a reduction in survey response rates (Groves and Kahn, 1979). In some part these reduced rates may be attributed to "cold contacts" with respondents about whom the interviewers know little. In addition, the lower response rates may be attributed to features of the RDD sampling frame, including the relatively high percentages of nonworking and nonresidential numbers that are part of this frame. The time requirements for screening out such sample numbers reduces the time available to pursue eligible numbers. This article summarizes a series of experiments conducted across three telephone surveys designed to measure cost and nonresponse advantages of a sampling frame based on telephone directories (termed the "list frame") in comparison with RDD samples.1 In contrast to prior uses of directories as the sole frame or as a "seeding" mechanism for RDD work (Sudman, 1973), these experiments explored their use in a dual frame design, jointly employing RDD and directory based methods. The research reported here focuses not on the statistical design issues involved in dual frame telephone surveys but on those properties of the list frame that make it a desirable companion to the RDD frame. The major test described in this paper involved a comparison of the response rate among list frame households sent an advance letter with the rate for those in which cold contacts were made. Following previous results it was hypothesized that the use of the letter would increase response rates. A subsidiary experimental treatment involved the use upon initial contact of the name in the directory listing for a portion of the households that were sent the letter. Assuming that personalized approaches emphasize the unique attributes of the sample person, it was hypothesized that the use of names in conjunction with the letter would further increase response rates. Because of the anticipated higher proportions of working household numbers on the list frame, and possible differences in cooperation 1. The first two of these three surveys used the same basic dual frame sample design, while the third used a two-phase design described in Lepkowski and Groves (1986b). There were other elements of each study which differed. The first survey was conducted between 18 October and 10 November 1985, involved 753 interviews which averaged 23 minutes in length, and achieved an overall response rate of 61%. The second survey was conducted between 14 February and 3 March 1986, involved 668 interviews which averaged 13 minutes in length, and achieved an overall response rate of 61%. The third survey, conducted between 24 May and 15 June 1986, involved 789 interviews which averaged 22 minutes in length, and achieved an overall response rate of 63%. This content downloaded from 157.55.39.180 on Mon, 25 Apr 2016 06:57:17 UTC All use subject to http://about.jstor.org/terms Dual Frame Designs to Reduce Nonresponse 525 among respondents with listed and unlisted numbers, it was hypothesized that response rates would be higher in the list frame than in the RDD frame, for an equivalent level of effort at contacting respondents. The effects of these design features on survey costs, measured as efficiency in obtaining interviews, were evaluated under controlled conditions in a fixed field period and achievement of a designated final response rate. Examples are also presented of differences in observed bivariate relationships among respondents who were sent a letter (the "high response" sample) and those who were not (the "low response" sample). Elements of the Dual Frame Design for Telephone

Optimal call scheduling for a telephone survey

Abstract: Contacting a suitable respondent at home and securing the interview is a significant component of the typical household telephone survey. An optimal calling schedule minimizes the number of callbacks required and thus conserves resources. This article presents an analysis of time-of-day and day-of-week effects on the probabilities of obtaining an answered outcome and an interviewed outcome in a large national telephone survey of adult males. The data presented indicate that, at least for the survey population included in this study, the chances of obtaining an answer and conducting an interview on the first call are much better on weekday evenings and on weekends than they are during weekday daytime hours. Moreover, there is some evidence to indicate that this finding also applies to second calls made to firstcall no-answers, at least with regard to contacting efforts. Timeof-day and/or day-of-week effects on first call outcomes appear to be generally consistent with respect to both contacting and interviewing, although Sunday has a decidedly higher interview response rate for answered calls than do the other calling periods analyzed. Contacting a suitable respondent at home and securing the interview is a significant component of the typical household telephone survey. The effort required to accomplish this task, however, can be minimized by calling respondents at optimal times; that is, when the chances are best of finding an eligible respondent at home and willing to be interviewed. An optimal calling schedule minimizes the number of callbacks required and thus conserves labor, time, and money. MICHAEL F. WEEKS iS a senior survey specialist and RICHARD A. KULKA is a senior survey methodologist in the Center for Survey Research at Research Triangle Institute. STEPHANIE A. PIERSON iS a former survey specialist in the Center for Survey Research at Research Triangle Institute. The authors wish to express their appreciation to James L. Knight for his assistance with data processing. Public Opinion Quarterly Volume 51:540-549 ? 1987 by the American Association for Public Opinion Research Published by The University of Chicago Press / 0033-362X/87/0051-04(1)/$2.50 This content downloaded from 157.55.39.96 on Sun, 02 Oct 2016 06:11:38 UTC All use subject to http://about.jstor.org/terms Optimal Call Scheduling for a Telephone Survey 541 Previous research in this area has been relatively sparse, given its great importance. Investigators have examined the effects of a variety of independent variables on call outcomes, including time of day, day of the week, seasonality, and type of community surveyed (see Falthzik, 1972; Rogers, 1976; Fitti, 1979; Vigderhous, 1981; Kerin and Peterson, 1983). The findings from these studies, however, are far from consistent. Also, scant attention has been paid to the relationship between obtaining an "answered" outcome, on the one hand, and an "interviewed" result, on the other. Finally, investigators have tended either to focus on the timing of the first call only or else to lump all calls together for purposes of these analyses. This has left the question unanswered as to whether the guidelines developed to date for making first calls apply equally well to callbacks. This article presents an analysis of time-of-day and day-of-week effects on the probabilities of obtaining an answered outcome and an interviewed outcome in a large national telephone survey of adult males. The focus is on time of day and day of the week since these are the two independent variables over which the researcher generally has the most control. First-call results are presented first, followed by an analysis of second-call results on first-call no-answers. A concluding section summarizes the findings and conclusions to be drawn from the data presented.

The demographics of a new voting gap marital differences in american voting

Abstract: There is now a marriage gap in presidential voting in the United States, with married people voting about 10%-15% more Republican than unmarried people. This voting difference developed in the 1972 election, and it is also evident in party identification. The proportion of unmarried people has doubled since 1964, so this cleavage is important. The gap can be explained statistically in terms of race and income, but still may give politicians the opportunity to gain votes by appealing to voters on the basis of family issues. Survey researchers have long probed social group differences in voting. They have come to expect certain demographic variables to be related to the vote while others are seen as so irrelevant that they are never examined. Yet familiar voting cleavages can diminish in importance, while new differences can emerge. We generally think of social group differences in the vote as resulting from divergent issue appeals or from mobilization of groups into parties by group leaders, and such appeals and mobilization would be noticed enough for us to look specifically for their effects. However, group voting differences can also emerge more subtly because of the changing demographics of the population. As a result, it is important for us to examine periodically the full range of social group differences in voting. When one so examines voting in the 1984 American presidential election, one finds the largest voting differences on the basis of race and income, followed in order by differences based on marital status, religion, gender, and region. These differences are familiar ones, exHERBERT F. WEISBERG iS Professor of Political Science at the Ohio State University. This research was partially based on work supported by the National Science Foundation under Grant No. SES-8218873. The National Election Studies data were supplied by the Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this paper are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation or the ICPSR. The author would like to express appreciation to Terri Royed for assistance in the data

UNDER WAY AND HERE TO STAY PARTY REALIGNMENT IN THE 1980s

Abstract: In recent years, the Republican party has sharply narrowed the Democratic edge in overall party identification. Using New York Times/CBS News surveys (1980-1986) and earlier NES/CPS surveys, this analysis probes several explanations for that partisan change: generational replacement, conversion, and mobilization. The findings rule out conversion, give some support to mobilization, but emphasize the historically unique surge toward the GOP among the young since 1980. This break with the parental partisan legacy signals the prospect of a party realignment through generational replacement. Ever since Eisenhower's presidential campaign conquered the White House, the emergence of a Republican majority in the American electorate has been the object of much speculation. Some observers have eagerly prophesied that prospect, but others have shrugged it off as wishful thinking. Each new Republican conquest or successful defense of the White House revives the speculation, while electoral analysts sort out the evidence pro and con. That a party realignment is overdue, many would agree, but that one is actually under way, and that whatever is under way is here to stay, many would dispute. There is no denying that over the last three decades Republicans have done exceedingly well in winning presidential elections. Although, for the most part, they faced a Congress controlled by the other party, they could often rely on enough conservative members of Congress to govern effectively. In that sense, a party realignment may have long been consummated, but that it is not the same as saying that the Republican party has displaced the Democrats as the favorite of the American electorate. HELMUT NORPOTH is a Professor of Political Science at the State University of New York, Stony Brook. A note of thanks goes to the New York Times and CBS News for making available the data for this study. The research presented here has greatly benefited from discussions with Paul Allen Beck, George Bishop, Thad Brown, Adam Clymer, Shanto Iyengar, John Petrocik, Martin Plissner, Fred Steeper, and from a joint project with Barbara Farah. An earlier version of this article was presented at the 41st annual meeting of AAPOR in St. Petersburg, May 14-19, 1986. Public Opinion Quarterly Volume 51:376-391 ?) 1987 by the Amencan Association for Public Opinion Research Published by The University of Chicago Press / 0033-362X/87/0051-00/$2.50 This content downloaded from 157.55.39.27 on Wed, 07 Sep 2016 05:29:09 UTC All use subject to http://about.jstor.org/terms Party Realignment in the 1980s 377 Our interest focuses on the basic partisan loyalties of American voters, commonly known as their "party identifications" (Campbell et al., 1960). While no immutable biological trait, this identification is no fickle opinion swaying with the prevailing wind. To be sure, a good portion of voters will not be guided by their identifications in casting their votes in any given election, but in most cases their party identifications have survived such acts of infidelity. Though aided by defections of Democratic voters, Eisenhower's and Nixon's victories failed to upend the basic partisan division and instead turned out to be "deviating elections." Given the nature of party identification, a shift of basic loyalties massive enough to produce a realignment is bound to be

Public attitudes toward suicide demographic and ideological correlates

Abstract: Despite long-standing research interest in the social correlates of suicide, public attitudes toward suicide have received comparatively little attention. Using data from NORC's General Social Survey, this study examines popular support for a person's right to commit suicide when s/he is tired of living or faced with an incurable disease, bankruptcy, or family dishonor. Survey responses to these four items conform to a unidimensional Guttman-type scale. Opposition to suicide, as measured by this scale, varies along a number of sociodemographic lines. Prolife beliefs and civil libertarianism are strongly related to a person's attitudes toward suicide and explain at least part of every sociodemographic relationship examined. By contrast, life satisfaction, anomia, and social participation measures show no significant associations with suicide attitudes. Suicide, as a social phenomenon, has gained increased notoriety in recent years with widely publicized accounts of the "suicide crisis" among America's teens and heightened concern over "right-to-die" issues in the United States as well as abroad. The seeming failure to reach consensus on proposed strategies of intervention reflects the highly variegated nature of the suicide problem and the growing ambivalence about what has traditionally been portrayed as a socially DARWIN SAWYER iS Associate Professor of Sociology at the University of Maryland Baltimore County. JEFFERY SOBAL is Assistant Professor in the Department of Family Medicine at the University of Maryland School of Medicine in Baltimore. Earlier versions of this paper were presented at the 1985 annual meetings of the American Sociological Association and the American Association for Public Opinion Research. The authors wish to thank the Inter-University Consortium for Political and Social Research for making the data for this study available. The data for the Spring 1982 General Social Survey, National Data Program for the Social Sciences, were originally collected by James A. Davis and Tom W. Smith of the National Opinion Research Center. Public Opinion Quarterly Volume 51:92-101 ? by the American Association for Public Opinion Research Published by The University of Chicago Press / 0033-362X/87/0051-01/$2.50 This content downloaded from 157.55.39.144 on Wed, 07 Sep 2016 05:20:36 UTC All use subject to http://about.jstor.org/terms Public Attitudes Toward Suicide 93 deviant act. Interest in the normative bases of suicidal behavior dates at least as far back as Durkheim (1951), yet except for a handful of widely scattered and narrowly focused studies (Ansel and McGee, 1971; Domino, Gibson, Polling, and Westlake, 1980; Domino, Cohen, and Gonzalez, 1981; Domino, Moore, Westlake, and Gibson, 1982; Ginsburg, 1971; Hood, 1973; Kalish, 1963; Kalish, Reynolds, and Farberow, 1974; Shneidman, 1971), little evidence has been produced to support this popular conception of public attitudes toward suicide. Even less evidence is available showing whether such attitudes vary within the population, and if so, why. While opinion polls continue to show substantial public disapproval (Gallup, 1978), survey studies were reporting significant support for the rights of suicide victims as early as 1970 (Beswick, 1970).1 In a more recent survey (Domino et al., 1980), 12% of the respondents felt that society had no right to interfere with the wishes of suicide victims. Approval levels as high as 48% have been found in cases of terminal illness (NORC, 1983), and while clearly a less compelling justification, fully 20% of the population approves of suicide even when one is simply a burden on his or her family (Gallup, 1978).

Social trends in the united states evidence from sample surveys

Abstract: There have been many trend studies of U. S. sample survey data dealing with specific topics, and those studies have contributed considerably to an understanding of social, cultural, and political change during the past few decades. My task here is different; it is to look at the various series of survey data as a whole and to ask what they reveal about the overall pattern of social and cultural change. Others have undertaken a similar task (e.g., Davis, 1980; Smith, 1982) but have not tried to cover the entire half century during which the Public Opinion Quarterly has been published. I cannot cover the entire period either, because of problems of comparability between the earliest and the later U. S. national survey data,' but I have examined data gathered from 1952 through 1986. It is clear from others' studies and my own that in general change has been in a liberal direction, with conservative reactions in the 1950s and in the late 1970s and early 1980s, even though not all of the series show net change in a liberal direction.2 It seems to me, however, that this generalization about the

Fifty years of survey sampling in the united states

Abstract: When properly undertaken, the sample survey provides an objective, efficient, and valid method of obtaining the characteristics of an entire population from only a small part of that population. First introduced in Europe at the beginning of the century, the basic method has been used in the United States for about 50 years (Kruskal and Mosteller, 1980; Seng, 1951). There have been two phases of development of the sample survey in this country. The first phase, which began in the middle 1930s, involved the development of basic probability sampling theory, the acceptance of probability sampling as the method of choice for obtaining representative samples, and the application of the method in a broad range of topic areas involving personal interview household surveys. In the late 1960s and early 1970s sample survey development entered a second phase, which witnessed an even broader utilization of survey sampling methodology as well as an updating of techniques and procedures to be more in line with broader changes in our society and with available technology.

The hollow realignment partisan change in a candidate-centered era

Abstract: In 1984 identification with the Republican party increased to the point where the plurality of Democrats over Republicans reached its lowest point since such measurements began in 1952. Yet the realignment is a hollow one between two parties who still have a weak image in the public mind and an uncertain role in the future of American government. While the balance of power between the two parties shifted, the importance of political parties to the electorate remained at an historically weak level. Split-ticket voting continued to be high and roughly a third of the electorate had nothing to say-either positive or negative-about both the parties. In short, realignment occurred in 1984 without party revitalization and the reestablishment of the linkage between parties and candidates. As the 1984 election approached, there were ample signs that the longawaited party revitalization and realignment might at last be under way. To some extent these expectations were realized; Republican identification grew in 1984 to the point where the plurality of Democrats over Republicans reached its lowest level since 1952, when such measurements began. Yet such a realignment is hollow when the two parties involved continue to have a weak image in the public mind and an uncertain role in the future of American government. For over three decades prior to 1984 the American public had been drifting away from the two major parties. Once the central guiding forces in American electoral behavior, the parties had by 1980 come to be perceived with almost complete indifference by a large percentage of the population. The decline of public affection for the parties was not due to any greater negative feelings about the Democrats and ReMARTIN P. WATTENBERG is Associate Professor of Political Science at the University of California, Irvine. The data presented in this article are from the American National Election Studies: 1952-1984 and were provided by the Inter-University Consortium for Political and Social Research. Public Opinion Quarterly Volume 51:58-74 K 1987 by the American Association for Public Opinion Research Published by The University of Chicago Press / 0033-362X/87/0051-01/$2.50 This content downloaded from 157.55.39.138 on Mon, 27 Jun 2016 06:03:58 UTC All use subject to http://about.jstor.org/terms The Hollow Realignment 59 publicans but rather to an increasing sense that the parties just no longer matter much in the governmental process. For example, over a third of those interviewed in the 1980 National Election Study exhibited the following response pattern to a series of four open-ended questions about the political parties: Q: What do you like about the Democratic party? A: Nothing. Q: What do you dislike about the Democratic party? A: Nothing. Q: What do you like about the Republican party? A: Nothing. Q: What do you dislike about the Republican party? A: Nothing. When these questions were first asked in 1952, only 10% of the sample responded this way. In the 1950s such indifference usually proved to be part of a more general sense of political apathy and lack of political knowledge; by 1980 it was much more likely to be a specific indicator of apathy and lack of knowledge about the parties themselves. It probably would have been better for the parties if the public had become more negative rather than more neutral toward them. Negative attitudes can easily be turned into positive attitudes by better performance or a change in policies. To make people care about political parties once again is a much more difficult task in the current candidate-centered mass media age. As this paper will argue, even an election with many signs of realignment was not sufficient to reverse the decline in salience of partisan attitudes in the electorate. The Evidence for Realignment: Changing the Balance in Party Identification Since the National Election Studies began in 1952, Democrats have consistently outnumbered Republicans by a ratio of approximately 1.7 to 1.0. As Table 1 shows, this ratio reached an all-time low in 1984, with Democrats outnumbering Republicans by less than 10% for the first time. If one includes the Independent leaners with the respective partisan groups, then the gap is cut even further, with 47.8% identifying with the Democrats, compared to 39.5% for the Republicans. Because Republicans turn out at higher rates than Democrats, this gap is still less among voting participants in 1984, with Democrats having only a 47.4 to 44.6 edge over the Republicans. For the Republican party this is the highest percentage while for the Democratic party it is the lowest ever. Furthermore, despite the increased size of the Republican identifiers, their cohesiveness as a voting bloc was also close to an all-time high in 1984. 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The growth of the federal deficit and the role of public attitudes

Abstract: How can the recent explosion in the fiscal deficit of the United States be reconciled with the well-known support of the American public for fiscal conservatism? It is first shown that the reputation for fiscal conservatism is fully supported by public opinion polls dating back over a period of four decades. Solid majorities have consistently opposed tax reductions that might produce an unbalanced budget. Recently, however, the public has also shown strong opposition to increases in taxes to close the fiscal gap, which might appear to imply a new acquiescence to the deficit. But this opposition, too, is shown to have persisted for a long time and to be not logically inconsistent with rejecting tax cuts resulting in deficit. Another fashionable explanation for the deficit holds that the budget process in a democratic society is biased toward deficit because the cost of higher taxes is immediate while the cost of deficit is delayed. But it is inconsistent with the fiscal history of the United States over the last 100 years, which reveals no systematic bias toward deficits, at least until recent years. The major explanation that emerges is that the administration succeeded in misleading the public (and perhaps even itself) into believing that the tax cut would not result in deficit thanks to "supply" and "Laffer curve" effects.

The importance of persistence in respondent selection for preelection surveys

Abstract: Different techniques for respondent selection can af- fect data quality. These differences can result in variations in the distribution of partisans in preelection surveys, which in turn can have an effect on the distribution of candidate preference. Persis- tence in trying to interview designated respondents in telephone households increased the number of Republicans in a 1984 sam- ple, and therefore Reagan's margin over Mondale. Such dif- ferences in interviewing techniques might account for some of the variations in national preelection estimates of the outcome of the presidential election, and they suggest that caution be used in comparing marginals for party identification from differ- ent surveys employing different respondent selection tech- niques. Appropriate sample designs are only a necessary prerequisite for col- lecting valid data with the survey method. The implementation of the sample design also has an important effect on the quality of the data which are obtained. Variations in techniques for selecting respondents within sample households can affect the quality of data and therefore the substantive conclusions which are drawn from many surveys. These effects derive from a number of factors, including the way in which individuals residing in the household are enumerated or listed, if at all, how a designated respondent is subsampled, and the persistence with which designated respondents are called back in order to obtain an interview. While these methodological differences affect the demo- graphic characteristics of the sample, the most significant conse- MICHAEL W. TRAUGOTT iS Senior Study Director, Center for Political Studies, The Uni- versity of Michigan. An earlier version of this article was presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Association for Public Opinion Research, McAfee, New Jersey, May 16-19, 1985. The research assistance of Julio Borquez is gratefully acknowl- edged.

Toward an old new paradigm the half-century flirtation with mass society

Abstract: Judging from the three-page Editorial Foreword which introduced readers to the first issue of The Public Opinion Quarterly in January 1937, the founding editors' hoped to promote the scientific study of interrelationships among three potent new social forces: mass opinion, which they contrasted to the opinion of a much smaller elite public; mass communication, which they saw as increasingly centered on the new media of radio and motion pictures, and as including advertising, public and press relations, and government propaganda; and public opinion measurement and reporting, just beginning to be based on scientific sampling and including well-publicized national polls like those of Gallup, Roper, and Crossley, private opinion polling, and market and consumer research more generally. Why did POQ's founding editors, all prominent scholars at major U.S. institutions, decide to dedicate their new journal to this particular set of social factors, what they summarized as public opinion from the perspective of "scholarship, government, business, advertising, public relations, press, radio, motion pictures"? A strong influence, one that would dominate the study of public opinion and mass communication over the next three decades, can be seen in the opening sentences of their first Editorial Foreword: