Showing papers in "Space Weather-the International Journal of Research and Applications in 2016"

Variability and predictability of the space environment as related to lower atmosphere forcing

Abstract: The Earth's thermosphere and ionosphere (TI) are characterized by perpetual variability as integral parts of the atmosphere system, with intermittent disturbances from solar and geomagnetic forcing. This review examines how the TI variability is affected by processes originating from the lower atmosphere and implications for quantifying and forecasting the TI. This aspect of the TI variability has been increasingly appreciated in recent years from both observational and numerical studies, especially during the last extended solar minimum. This review focuses on the role of atmospheric waves, including tides, planetary waves, gravity waves, and acoustic waves, which become increasingly significant as they propagate from their source region to the upper atmosphere. Recent studies have led to better understanding of how these waves directly or indirectly affect TI wind, temperature, and compositional structures; the circulation pattern; neutral and ion species transport; and ionospheric wind dynamo. The variability of these waves on daily to interannual scales has been found to significantly impact the TI variability. Several outstanding questions and challenges have been highlighted: (i) large, seemingly stochastic, day-to-day variability of tides in the TI; (ii) control of model error in the TI region by the lower atmosphere; and (iii) the increasing importance of processes with shorter spatial and temporal scales at higher altitudes. Addressing these challenges requires model capabilities to assimilate observations of both lower and upper atmosphere and higher model resolution to capture complex interactions among processes over a broad range of scales and extended altitudes.

The Swarm satellite loss of GPS signal and its relation to ionospheric plasma irregularities

Abstract: In this study we investigated conditions for loss of GPS signals observed by the Swarm satellites during a 2 year period, from December 2013 to November 2015. Our result shows that the Swarm satellites encountered most of the total loss of GPS signal at the ionization anomaly crests, between ±5° and ±20° magnetic latitude, forming two bands along the magnetic equator, and these low-latitude events mainly appear around postsunset hours from 19:00 to 22:00 local time. By further checking the in situ electron density measurements of Swarm, we found that practically, all the total loss of GPS signal events at low latitudes are related to equatorial plasma irregularities (EPIs) that show absolute density depletions larger than 10 × 1011 m−3; then, the Swarm satellites encountered for up to 95% loss of GPS signal for at least one channel and up to 45% tracked less than four GPS satellites (making precise orbit determination impossible). For those EPIs with density depletions less than 10 × 1011 m−3, the chance of tracked GPS signals less than four reduces to only 1.0%. Swarm also observed total loss of all GPS signal at high latitudes, mainly around local noon, and these events are related to large spatial density gradients due to polar patches or increased geomagnetic/auroral activities. We further found that the loss of GPS signals were less frequent after appropriate settings of the Swarm GPS receivers had been updated. However, the more recent period of the mission, e.g., after the GPS receiver settings have been updated, also coincides with less severe electron density depletions due to the declining solar cycle, making GPS loss events less likely. We conclude that both lower electron density gradients and appropriate GPS receiver settings reduce the probability for Swarm satellites loss of GPS signals.

Predictions of Solar Cycle 24: How are We Doing?

Abstract: Predictions of solar activity are an essential part of our Space Weather forecast capability. Users are requiring usable predictions of an upcoming solar cycle to be delivered several years before solar minimum. A set of predictions of the amplitude of Solar Cycle 24 accumulated in 2008 ranged from zero to unprecedented levels of solar activity. The predictions formed an almost normal distribution, centered on the average amplitude of all preceding solar cycles. The average of the current compilation of 105 predictions of the annual-average sunspot number is 106 +/- 31, slightly lower than earlier compilations but still with a wide distribution. Solar Cycle 24 is on track to have a below-average amplitude, peaking at an annual sunspot number of about 80. Our need for solar activity predictions and our desire for those predictions to be made ever earlier in the preceding solar cycle will be discussed. Solar Cycle 24 has been a below-average sunspot cycle. There were peaks in the daily and monthly averaged sunspot number in the Northern Hemisphere in 2011 and in the Southern Hemisphere in 2014. With the rapid increase in solar data and capability of numerical models of the solar convection zone we are developing the ability to forecast the level of the next sunspot cycle. But predictions based only on the statistics of the sunspot number are not adequate for predicting the next solar maximum. I will describe how we did in predicting the amplitude of Solar Cycle 24 and describe how solar polar field predictions could be made more accurate in the future.

Verification of high-speed solar wind stream forecasts using operational solar wind models

Abstract: High-speed solar wind streams emanating from coronal holes are frequently impinging on the Earth's magnetosphere causing recurrent, medium-level geomagnetic storm activity. Modeling high-speed solar wind streams is thus an essential element of successful space weather forecasting. Here we evaluate high-speed stream forecasts made by the empirical solar wind forecast (ESWF) and the semiempirical Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) model based on the in situ plasma measurements from the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) spacecraft for the years 2011 to 2014. While the ESWF makes use of an empirical relation between the coronal hole area observed in Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO)/Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) images and solar wind properties at the near-Earth environment, the WSA model establishes a link between properties of the open magnetic field lines extending from the photosphere to the corona and the background solar wind conditions. We found that both solar wind models are capable of predicting the large-scale features of the observed solar wind speed (root-mean-square error, RMSE ≈100 km/s) but tend to either overestimate (ESWF) or underestimate (WSA) the number of high-speed solar wind streams (threat score, TS ≈ 0.37). The predicted high-speed streams show typical uncertainties in the arrival time of about 1 day and uncertainties in the speed of about 100 km/s. General advantages and disadvantages of the investigated solar wind models are diagnosed and outlined.

On the origins and timescales of geoeffective IMF

Abstract: Southward Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) in the Geocentric Solar Magnetospheric (GSM) reference frame is the key element that controls the level of space-weather disturbance in Earth’s magnetosphere, ionosphere and thermosphere. We discuss the relation of this geoeffective IMF component to the IMF in the Geocentric Solar Ecliptic (GSE) frame and, using the almost continuous interplanetary data for 1996-2015 (inclusive), we show that large geomagnetic storms are always associated with strong southward, out-of-ecliptic field in the GSE frame: dipole tilt effects, that cause the difference between the southward field in the GSM and GSE frames, generally make only a minor contribution to these strongest storms. The time-of-day/time-of-year response patterns of geomagnetic indices and the optimum solar wind coupling function are both influenced by the timescale of the index response. We also study the occurrence spectrum of large out-of-ecliptic field and show that for one-hour averages it is, surprisingly, almost identical in ICMEs (Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections), around CIRs/SIRs (Corotating and Stream Interaction Regions) and in the “quiet” solar wind (which is shown to be consistent with the effect of weak SIRs). However, differences emerge when the timescale over which the field remains southward is considered: for longer averaging timescales the spectrum is broader inside ICMEs, showing that these events generate longer intervals of strongly southward average IMF and consequently stronger geomagnetic storms. The behavior of out-of-ecliptic field with timescale is shown to be very similar to that of deviations from the predicted Parker spiral orientation, suggesting the two share common origins.

The May 1967 great storm and radio disruption event: Extreme space weather and extraordinary responses

Abstract: Although listed as one of the most significant events of the last 80 years, the space weather storm of late May 1967 has been of mostly fading academic interest. The storm made its initial mark with a colossal solar radio burst causing radio interference at frequencies between 0.01 and 9.0 GHz and near-simultaneous disruptions of dayside radio communication by intense fluxes of ionizing solar X-rays. Aspects of military control and communication were immediately challenged. Within hours a solar energetic particle event disrupted high-frequency communication in the polar cap. Subsequently, record-setting geomagnetic and ionospheric storms compounded the disruptions. We explain how the May 1967 storm was nearly one with ultimate societal impact, were it not for the nascent efforts of the United States Air Force in expanding its terrestrial weather monitoring-analysis-warning-prediction efforts into the realm of space weather forecasting. An important and long-lasting outcome of this storm was more formal Department of Defense-support for current-day space weather forecasting. This story develops during the rapid rise of solar cycle 20 and the intense Cold War in the latter half of the twentieth century. We detail the events of late May 1967 in the intersecting categories of solar-terrestrial interactions and the political-military backdrop of the Cold War. This was one of the “Great Storms” of the twentieth century, despite the apparent lack of large geomagnetically induced currents. Radio disruptions like those discussed here warrant the attention of today's radio-reliant, cellular-phone and satellite-navigation enabled world.

The Global Positioning System constellation as a space weather monitor: Comparison of electron measurements with Van Allen Probes data

Abstract: Energetic electron observations in Earth's radiation belts are typically sparse, and multipoint studies often rely on serendipitous conjunctions. This paper establishes the scientific utility of the Combined X-ray Dosimeter (CXD), currently flown on 19 satellites in the Global Positioning System (GPS) constellation, by cross-calibrating energetic electron measurements against data from the Van Allen Probes. By breaking our cross calibration into two parts—one that removes any spectral assumptions from the CXD flux calculation and one that compares the energy spectra—we first validate the modeled instrument response functions, then the calculated electron fluxes. Unlike previous forward modeling of energetic electron spectra, we use a combination of four distributions that together capture a wide range of observed spectral shapes. Moreover, our two-step approach allowed us to identify, and correct for, small systematic offsets between block IIR and IIF satellites. Using the Magnetic Electron Ion Spectrometer and Relativistic Electron-Proton Telescope on Van Allen Probes as a “gold standard,” here we demonstrate that the CXD instruments are well understood. A robust statistical analysis shows that CXD and Van Allen Probes fluxes are similar and the measured fluxes from CXD are typically within a factor of 2 of Van Allen Probes at energies inline image4 MeV.more » Our team present data from 17 CXD-equipped GPS satellites covering the 2015 “St. Patrick's Day” geomagnetic storm to illustrate the scientific applications of such a high data density satellite constellation and therefore demonstrate that the GPS constellation is positioned to enable new insights in inner magnetospheric physics and space weather forecasting.« less

Characterizing GPS radio occultation loss of lock due to ionospheric weather

Abstract: Transient loss of lock is one of the key space weather effects on the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS). Based on the Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate Global Positioning System (GPS) radio occultation (RO) observations during 2007–2011, we have analyzed the signal cycle slip (CS) occurrence comprehensively and its correlation to the ionospheric weather phenomena such as sporadic E (Es), equatorial F region irregularity (EFI), and the ionospheric equatorial ionization anomaly (EIA). The high vertical resolution of RO observations enables us to distinguish the CS resulting from different ionospheric layers clearly on a global scale. In the E layer, the CS is dominated by the Es occurrence, while in the F layer, the CS is mainly related to the EIA and EFI at low and equatorial latitudes. In the polar region, the CS is primarily related to polar cap electron density gradients. The overall average CS (>6 cycles) occurrence is ~23% per occultation, with the E (50–150 km) and F (150–600 km) layers contributing ~8.3% and ~14.7%, respectively. Awareness of the effect of the ionospheric weather on the CS of the low Earth orbit (LEO)-based GNSS signal could be beneficial to a variety of applications, including the LEO-based GNSS data processing and the corresponding hardware/firmware design.

Ionospheric TEC Weather Map Over South America

Abstract: Ionospheric weather maps using the total electron content (TEC) monitored by ground based GNSS receivers over South American continent, TECMAP, have been operationally produced by INPE´s Space Weather Study and Monitoring Program (Estudo e Monitoramento Brasileiro de Clima Especial, EMBRACE) since 2013. In order to cover the whole continent, 4 GNSS receiver net-works, RBMC/IBGE, LISN, IGS and RAMSAC, in total ~140 sites, have been used. TECMAPs with a time resolution of 10 minutes are produced in 12 hour time delay. Spatial resolution of the map is rather low, varying between 50 and 500 km depending on the density of the observation points. Large day to day variabilities of the equatorial ionization anomaly (EIA) have been observed. Spatial gradient of TEC from the anomaly trough (TECu 80) causes a large ionospheric range delay in the GNSS positioning system. Ionospheric plasma bubbles (IPB), their seeding and development, could be monitored.These plasma density (spatial and temporal) variability causes not only the GNSS based positioning error but also radio wave scintillations. Monitoring of these phenomena by TEC Mapping becomes an important issue for Space Weather concern for high technology positioning system and telecommunication.

Modeling and prediction of global magnetic disturbance in near‐Earth space: A case study for Kp index using NARX models

Abstract: Severe geomagnetic disturbances can be hazardous for modern technological systems. The reliable forecast of parameters related to the state of the magnetosphere can facilitate the mitigation of adverse effects of space weather. This study is devoted to the modeling and forecasting of the evolution of the Kp index related to global geomagnetic disturbances. Throughout this work the Nonlinear AutoRegressive with eXogenous inputs (NARX) methodology is applied. Two approaches are presented: i) a recursive sliding window approach, and ii) a direct approach. These two approaches are studied separately and are then compared to evaluate their performances. It is shown that the direct approach outperforms the recursive approach, but both tend to produce predictions slightly biased from the true values for low and high disturbances.

Spacecraft surface charging within geosynchronous orbit observed by the Van Allen Probes

Abstract: Using the Helium Oxygen Proton Electron (HOPE) and Electric Field and Waves (EFW) instruments from the Van Allen Probes, we explored the relationship between electron energy fluxes in the eV and keV ranges and spacecraft surface charging. We present statistical results on spacecraft charging within geosynchronous orbit by L and MLT. An algorithm to extract the H+ charging line in the HOPE instrument data was developed to better explore intense charging events. Also, this study explored how spacecraft potential relates to electron number density, electron pressure, electron temperature, thermal electron current, and low-energy ion density between 1 and 210 eV. It is demonstrated that it is imperative to use both EFW potential measurements and the HOPE instrument ion charging line for examining times of extreme spacecraft charging of the Van Allen Probes. The results of this study show that elevated electron energy fluxes and high-electron pressures are present during times of spacecraft charging but these same conditions may also occur during noncharging times. We also show noneclipse significant negative charging events on the Van Allen Probes.

Geomagnetically induced currents in the Irish power network during geomagnetic storms

Abstract: Geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) are a well-known terrestrial space weather hazard. They occur in power transmission networks and are known to have adverse effects in both high-latitude and midlatitude countries. Here we study GICs in the Irish power transmission network (geomagnetic latitude 54.7–58.5°N) during five geomagnetic storms (6–7 March 2016, 20–21 December 2015, 17–18 March 2015, 29–31 October 2003, and 13–14 March 1989). We simulate electric fields using a plane wave method together with two ground resistivity models, one of which is derived from magnetotelluric measurements (magnetotelluric (MT) model). We then calculate GICs in the 220, 275, and 400 kV transmission network. During the largest of the storm periods studied, the peak electric field was calculated to be as large as 3.8 V km−1, with associated GICs of up to 23 A using our MT model. Using our homogenous resistivity model, those peak values were 1.46 V km−1 and 25.8 A. We find that three 400 and 275 kV substations are the most likely locations for the Irish transformers to experience large GICs.

Regional 3‐D ionospheric electron density specification on the basis of data assimilation of ground‐based GNSS and radio occultation data

Abstract: In this paper, a regional 3-D ionospheric electron density specification over China and adjacent areas (70°E–140°E in longitude, 15°N–55°N in latitude, and 100–900 km in altitude) is developed on the basis of data assimilation technique. The International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) is used as a background model, and a three-dimensional variational technique is used to assimilate both the ground-based Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) observations from the Crustal Movement Observation Network of China (CMONOC) and International GNSS Service (IGS) and the ionospheric radio occultation (RO) data from FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC (F3/C) satellites. The regional 3-D gridded ionospheric electron densities can be generated with temporal resolution of 5 min in universal time, horizontal resolution of 2° × 2° in latitude and longitude, and vertical resolution of 20 km between 100 and 500 km and 50 km between 500 and 900 km. The data assimilation results are validated through extensive comparison with several sources of electron density information, including (1) ionospheric total electron content (TEC); (2) Abel-retrieved F3/C electron density profiles (EDPs); (3) ionosonde f o F 2 and bottomside EDPs; and (4) the Utah State University Global Assimilation of Ionospheric Measurements (USU-GAIM) under both geomagnetic quiet and disturbed conditions. The validation results show that the data assimilation procedure pushes the climatological IRI model toward the observation, and a general accuracy improvement of 15–30% can be expected. Thecomparisons also indicate that the data assimilation results are more close to the Center for Orbit Determination of Europe (CODE) TEC and Madrigal TEC products than USU-GAIM. These initial results might demonstrate the effectiveness of the data assimilation technique in improving specification of local ionospheric morphology.

Validation for Global Solar Wind Prediction Using Ulysses Comparison: Multiple Coronal and Heliospheric Models Installed at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center

Abstract: The prediction of the background global solar wind is a necessary part of space weather forecasting. Several coronal and heliospheric models have been installed and/or recently upgraded at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC), including the Wang-Sheely-Arge (WSA)-Enlil model, MHD-Around-a-Sphere (MAS)-Enlil model, Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF), and Heliospheric tomography using interplanetary scintillation data. Ulysses recorded the last fast latitudinal scan from southern to northern poles in 2007. By comparing the modeling results with Ulysses observations over seven Carrington rotations, we have extended our third-party validation from the previous near-Earth solar wind to middle to high latitudes, in the same late declining phase of solar cycle 23. Besides visual comparison, wehave quantitatively assessed the models capabilities in reproducing the time series, statistics, and latitudinal variations of solar wind parameters for a specific range of model parameter settings, inputs, and grid configurations available at CCMC. The WSA-Enlil model results vary with three different magnetogram inputs.The MAS-Enlil model captures the solar wind parameters well, despite its underestimation of the speed at middle to high latitudes. The new version of SWMF misses many solar wind variations probably because it uses lower grid resolution than other models. The interplanetary scintillation-tomography cannot capture the latitudinal variations of solar wind well yet. Because the model performance varies with parameter settings which are optimized for different epochs or flow states, the performance metric study provided here can serve as a template that researchers can use to validate the models for the time periods and conditions of interest to them.

An improved empirical model of electron and ion fluxes at geosynchronous orbit based on upstream solar wind conditions

Abstract: In this study, a new empirical model of the electron fluxes and ion fluxes at geosynchronous orbit (GEO) is introduced, based on observations by Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) satellites. The model provides flux predictions in the energy range ~1 eV to ~40 keV, as a function of local time, energy, and the strength of the solar wind electric field (the negative product of the solar wind speed and the z component of the magnetic field). Given appropriate upstream solar wind measurements, the model provides a forecast of the fluxes at GEO with a ~1 h lead time. Model predictions are tested against in-sample observations from LANL satellites and also against out-of-sample observations from the Compact Environmental Anomaly Sensor II detector on the AMC-12 satellite. The model does not reproduce all structure seen in the observations. However, for the intervals studied here (quiet and storm times) the normalized root-mean-square deviation < ~0.3. It is intended that the model will improve forecasting of the spacecraft environment at GEO and also provide improved boundary/input conditions for physical models of the magnetosphere.

Assessment of extreme values in geomagnetic and geoelectric field variations for Canada

Abstract: Disturbances of the geomagnetic field produced by space weather events can have an impact on power systems and other critical infrastructure. To mitigate these risks it is important to determine the extreme values of geomagnetic activity that can occur. More than 40 years of 1 min magnetic data recorded at 13 Canadian geomagnetic observatories have been analyzed to evaluate extreme levels in geomagnetic and geoelectric activities in different locations of Canada. The hourly ranges of geomagnetic field variations and hourly maximum in rate of change of the magnetic variations have been used as measures of geomagnetic activity. Geoelectric activity is estimated by the hourly peak amplitude of the geoelectric fields calculated with the use of Earth resistivity models specified for different locations in Canada. A generalized extreme value distribution was applied to geomagnetic and geoelectric indices to evaluate extreme geomagnetic and geoelectric disturbances, which could happen once per 50 and once per 100 years with 99% confidence interval. Influence of geomagnetic latitude and Earth resistivity models on the results for the extreme geomagnetic and geoelectric activity is discussed. The extreme values provide criteria for assessing the vulnerability of power systems and other technology to geomagnetic activity for design or mitigation purposes.

Inside the Black Box: Magnetic Reconnection and the Magnetospheric Multiscale Mission

Abstract: The motivation for the recently launched Magnetospheric Multiscale mission is learning about the process of magnetic reconnection, especially the physics of what is called the diffusion region. The diffusion region is often treated as a black box but is the home of very important physics, which is of great significance to understanding space weather. This article is a brief review of what is known—and not known—about the diffusion region in magnetic reconnection, written for the broad space weather community and its stakeholders (with an appendix for readers interested in more technical matters). The focus is on the physics of magnetic reconnection and the diffusion region, why it has been challenging to study, how MMS will contribute, and how the community will benefit from its measurements.

Artificial neural network prediction model for geosynchronous electron fluxes: Dependence on satellite position and particle energy

Abstract: Geosynchronous satellites are often exposed to energetic electrons, the flux of which varies often to a large extent. Since the electrons can cause irreparable damage to the satellites, efforts to develop electron flux prediction models have long been made until recently. In this study, we adopt a neural network scheme to construct a prediction model for the geosynchronous electron flux in a wide energy range (40 keV to >2 MeV) and at a high time resolution (as based on 5 min resolution data). As the model inputs, we take the solar wind variables, geomagnetic indices, and geosynchronous electron fluxes themselves. We also take into account the magnetic local time (MLT) dependence of the geosynchronous electron fluxes. We use the electron data from two geosynchronous satellites, GOES 13 and 15, and apply the same neural network scheme separately to each of the GOES satellite data. We focus on the dependence of prediction capability on satellite's magnetic latitude and MLT as well as particle energy. Our model prediction works less efficiently for magnetic latitudes more away from the equator (thus for GOES 13 than for GOES 15) and for MLTs nearer to midnight than noon. The magnetic latitude dependence is most significant for an intermediate energy range (a few hundreds of keV), and the MLT dependence is largest for the lowest energy (40 keV). We interpret this based on degree of variance in the electron fluxes, which depends on magnetic latitude and MLT at geosynchronous orbit as well as particle energy. We demonstrate how substorms affect the flux variance.

Why space weather is relevant to electrical power systems

Abstract: Twenty-five years of research has produced a wide range of models of the causal processes linking solar wind to geomagnetic disturbances to geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) and grid vulnerability. This review places the main concepts of each of the publications from the last 25 years in context with the others, categorizing them according to the following four themes: 1) flow of energy and momentum from the Sun to the Earth via the solar wind; 2) response of the terrestrial system to solar wind energy and momentum in the form of geomagnetic disturbances; 3) generation of quasi-DC electric currents (geomagnetically induced currents/GIC) in electric power grids as a consequence of geomagnetic disturbances (GMD); or 4) impact of GIC on operations of power grids. This review also reveals gaps in the knowledge of modeling, geophysical parameters, and the implications of GICs for power grids. More measurements from space, of geomagnetic disturbances, and on power systems are needed. There is scope to guide policy on the mitigation of societal risk and improve space weather forecasts for regular operational use by utilities.

Community-wide validation of geospace model local K-index predictions to support model transition to operations

Abstract: We present the latest result of a community-wide space weather model validation effort coordinated among the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC), NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC), model developers, and the broader science community. Validation of geospace models is a critical activity for both building confidence in the science results produced by the models and in assessing the suitability of the models for transition to operations. Indeed, a primary motivation of this work is supporting NOAA/SWPC's effort to select a model or models to be transitioned into operations. Our validation efforts focus on the ability of the models to reproduce a regional index of geomagnetic disturbance, the local K-index. Our analysis includes six events representing a range of geomagnetic activity conditions and six geomagnetic observatories representing midlatitude and high-latitude locations. Contingency tables, skill scores, and distribution metrics are used for the quantitative analysis of model performance. We consider model performance on an event-by-event basis, aggregated over events, at specific station locations, and separated into high-latitude and midlatitude domains. A summary of results is presented in this report, and an online tool for detailed analysis is available at the CCMC.

Observation and Modeling of the South Atlantic Anomaly in Low Earth Orbit Using Photometric Instrument Data

Abstract: We present a new model of the South Atlantic Anomaly (SAA) particle flux intensity for low Earth orbit, based a new data set, i.e., particle noise pulses in an ultraviolet photomultiplier. The data set is unique in that it provides daily monitoring of the strength of the particle radiation at a fixed altitude and local time and provides a consistent set of observations across the deep solar minimum. The observations show the following: (1) a development over the decline of solar cycle 23 into a deep solar minimum and the subsequent rise of cycle 24, (2) the slow motion drift of the SAA centroid with time at the rate—longitude drift =0.36 ± 0.06°W/yr, and latitude drift =0.16 ± 0.09°N/yr, (3) a higher particle flux at solar minimum than at solar maximum, and (4) a yearly cyclical variation. These particle rates are deduced from electric noise pulses generated in the photometers when an energetic charged particle hits the detector and causes an electron to be liberated from the detector material. The model described here can be used to monitor and even spatially predict the changes in particle fluxes seen by instruments in contemporaneous low Earth orbits through the SAA.

PAMELA's measurements of geomagnetic cutoff variations during the 14 December 2006 storm

Abstract: Data from the Payload for Antimatter Matter Exploration and Light-nuclei Astrophysics (PAMELA) satellite experiment were used to measure the geomagnetic cutoff for high-energy ( 80MeV) protons during the 14 December 2006 geomagnetic storm. The variations of the cutoff latitude as a function of rigidity were studied on relatively short timescales, corresponding to spacecraft orbital periods (approximate to 94 min). Estimated cutoff values were compared with those obtained by means of a trajectory-tracing approach based on a dynamical empirical modeling of the Earth's magnetosphere. We found significant variations in the cutoff latitude, with a maximum suppression of approximate to 7 degrees at lowest rigidities during the main phase of the storm. The observed reduction in the geomagnetic shielding and its temporal evolution were related to the changes in the magnetospheric configuration, investigating the role of interplanetary magnetic field, solar wind, and geomagnetic parameters. PAMELA's results represent the first direct measurement of geomagnetic cutoffs for protons with kinetic energies in the sub-GeV and GeV region.

The latitudinal variation of geoelectromagnetic disturbances during large (Dst≤−100 nT) geomagnetic storms

Abstract: Geoelectromagnetic disturbances (GMDs) are an important consequence of space weather that can directly impact many types of terrestrial infrastructure. In this paper, we analyze 30 years of SuperMAG magnetometer data from the range of magnetic latitudes 20°≤λ≤75° to derive characteristic latitudinal profiles for median GMD amplitudes. Based on this data, we obtain a parameterization of these latitudinal profiles of different types of GMDs, providing an analytical fit with Dst-dependent parameters. We also obtain probabilistic estimates for the magnitudes of “100 year” GMDs, finding that B = 6.9 (3.60–12.9) nT/s should be expected at 45°≤λ < 50°, exceeding the 5 nT/s threshold for dangerous inductive heating.

Comparative analysis of NOAA REFM and SNB 3 GEO tools for the forecast of the fluxes of high-energy electrons at GEO

Abstract: Reliable forecasts of relativistic electrons at geostationary orbit (GEO) are important for the mitigation of their hazardous effects on spacecraft at GEO. For a number of years the Space Weather Prediction Center at NOAA has provided advanced online forecasts of the fluence of electrons with energy >2 MeV at GEO using the Relativistic Electron Forecast Model (REFM). The REFM forecasts are based on real-time solar wind speed observations at L1. The high reliability of this forecasting tool serves as a benchmark for the assessment of other forecasting tools. Since 2012 the Sheffield SNB3GEO model has been operating online, providing a 24 h ahead forecast of the same fluxes. In addition to solar wind speed, the SNB3GEO forecasts use solar wind density and interplanetary magnetic field B(sub z) observations at L1. The period of joint operation of both of these forecasts has been used to compare their accuracy. Daily averaged measurements of electron fluxes by GOES 13 have been used to estimate the prediction efficiency of both forecasting tools. To assess the reliability of both models to forecast infrequent events of very high fluxes, the Heidke skill score was employed. The results obtained indicate that SNB3GEO provides a more accurate 1 day ahead forecast when compared to REFM. It is shown that the correction methodology utilized by REFM potentially can improve the SNB3GEO forecast.

GEM‐CEDAR challenge: Poynting flux at DMSP and modeled Joule heat

Abstract: Poynting flux into the ionosphere measures the electromagnetic energy coming from the magnetosphere. This energy flux can vary greatly between quiet times and geomagnetic active times. As part of the Geospace Environment Modeling-coupling energetics and dynamics of atmospheric regions modeling challenge, physics-based models of the 3-D ionosphere and ionospheric electrodynamics solvers of magnetosphere models that specify Joule heat and empirical models specifying Poynting flux were run for six geomagnetic storm events of varying intensity. We compared model results with Poynting flux values along the DMSP-15 satellite track computed from ion drift meter and magnetic field observations. Although being a different quantity, Joule heat can in practice be correlated to incoming Poynting flux because the energy is dissipated primarily in high latitudes where Poynting flux is being deposited. Within the physics-based model group, we find mixed results with some models overestimating Joule heat and some models agreeing better with observed Poynting flux rates as integrated over auroral passes. In contrast, empirical models tend to underestimate integrated Poynting flux values. Modeled Joule heat or Poynting flux patterns often resemble the observed Poynting flux patterns on a large scale, but amplitudes can differ by a factor of 2 or larger due to the highly localized nature of observed Poynting flux deposition that is not captured by the models. In addition, the positioning of modeled patterns appear to be randomly shifted against the observed Poynting flux energy input. This study is the first to compare Poynting flux and Joule heat in a large variety of models of the ionosphere.

Improving solar wind persistence forecasts: removing transient space weather events, and using observations away from the Sun‐Earth line

Abstract: This study demonstrates two significant ways of improving persistence forecasts of the solar wind, which exploit the relatively unchanging nature of the ambient solar wind to provide 27 day forecasts, when using data from the Lagrangian L1 point. Such forecasts are useful both as a prediction tool for the ambient wind, but also for benchmarking of solar wind models. We show solar wind persistence forecasts can be improved by removing transient solar wind features such as coronal mass ejections (CMEs). Using CME indicators to automatically identify CME-contaminated periods in ACE data from 1998-2011, and replacing these with solar wind from a previous synodic rotation, persistence forecasts improve (relative to a baseline): skill scores for the southward IMF component Bz, a crucial parameter for determining solar wind geoeffectiveness, improve by 7.7 percentage points when using a commonly-available indicator, based on the proton temperature. We also show persistence forecasts can be improved by using measurements away from L1, to reduce the requirement on coronal stability for an entire synodic period, at the cost of reduced lead time. Using STEREO-B data from 2007-2013 to create such a reduced lead time persistence forecast, we show Bz skill scores improve by 17.1 percentage points relative to ACE. Finally, we report on implications for persistence forecasts from any future missions to the L5 Lagrangian point, and on the successful operational implementation of the normal (ACE-based) and reduced lead time (STEREO-based) persistence forecasts in the Met Office’s Space Weather Operations Centre (MOSWOC), where they have been routinely used by forecasters since spring 2015, as well as plans for future improvements.

Cosmic Radiation Dose Measurements from the RaD‐X Flight Campaign

Abstract: The NASA Radiation Dosimetry Experiment (RaD-X) stratospheric balloon flight mission obtained measurements for improving the understanding of cosmic radiation transport in the atmosphere and human exposure to this ionizing radiation field in the aircraft environment. The value of dosimetric measurements from the balloon platform is that they can be used to characterize cosmic ray primaries, the ultimate source of aviation radiation exposure. In addition, radiation detectors were flown to assess their potential application to long-term, continuous monitoring of the aircraft radiation environment. The RaD-X balloon was successfully launched from Fort Sumner, New Mexico (34.5°N, 104.2°W) on 25 September 2015. Over 18 hours of flight data were obtained from each of the four different science instruments at altitudes above 20 km. The RaD-X balloon flight was supplemented by contemporaneous aircraft measurements. Flight-averaged dosimetric quantities are reported at seven altitudes to provide benchmark measurements for improving aviation radiation models. The altitude range of the flight data extends from commercial aircraft altitudes to above the Pfotzer maximum where the dosimetric quantities are influenced by cosmic ray primaries. The RaD-X balloon flight observed an absence of the Pfotzer maximum in the measurements of dose equivalent rate.

On the propagation of uncertainties in radiation belt simulations

Abstract: We present the first study of the uncertainties associated with radiation belt simulations, performed in the standard quasi-linear diffusion framework In particular, we estimate how uncertainties of some input parameters propagate through the nonlinear simulation, producing a distribution of outputs that can be quite broad Here, we restrict our focus on two-dimensional simulations (in energy and pitch angle space) of parallel-propagating chorus waves only, and we study as stochastic input parameters the geomagnetic index Kp(that characterizes the time dependency of an idealized storm), the latitudinal extent of waves, and the average electron density We employ a collocation method, thus performing an ensemble of simulations The results of this work point to the necessity of shifting to a probabilistic interpretation of radiation belt simulation results, and suggest that an accurate specification of a time-dependent density model is crucial for modeling the radiation environment