Journal ArticleDOI
Analyses of the impact of climate change on water resources components, drought and wheat yield in semiarid regions: Karkheh River Basin in Iran
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In this paper, the authors investigated the impact of climate change on water resources and wheat yield in the Karkheh River Basin (KRB) in the semi-arid region of Iran.Abstract:
Water resources availability in the semiarid regions of Iran has experienced severe reduction because of increasing water use and lengthening of dry periods. To better manage this resource, we investigated the impact of climate change on water resources and wheat yield in the Karkheh River Basin (KRB) in the semiarid region of Iran. Future climate scenarios for 2020–2040 were generated from the Canadian Global Coupled Model for scenarios A1B, B1 and A2. We constructed a hydrological model of KRB using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool to project water resources availability. Blue and green water components were modeled with uncertainty ranges for both historic and future data. The Sequential Uncertainty Fitting Version 2 was used with parallel processing option to calibrate the model based on river discharge and wheat yield. Furthermore, a newly developed program called critical continuous day calculator was used to determine the frequency and length of critical periods for precipitation, maximum temperature and soil moisture. We found that in the northern part of KRB, freshwater availability will increase from 1716 to 2670 m3/capita/year despite an increase of 28% in the population in 2025 in the B1 scenario. In the southern part, where much of the agricultural lands are located, the freshwater availability will on the average decrease by 44%. The long-term average irrigated wheat yield, however, will increase in the south by 1.2%–21% in different subbasins; but for rain-fed wheat, this variation is from −4% to 38%. The results of critical continuous day calculator showed an increase of up to 25% in both frequency and length of dry periods in south Karkheh, whereas increasing flood events could be expected in the northern and western parts of the region. In general, there is variability in the impact of climate change in the region where some areas will experience net negative whereas other areas will experience a net positive impact. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.read more
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References
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Journal ArticleDOI
River flow forecasting through conceptual models part I — A discussion of principles☆
J.E. Nash,J.V. Sutcliffe +1 more
TL;DR: In this article, the principles governing the application of the conceptual model technique to river flow forecasting are discussed and the necessity for a systematic approach to the development and testing of the model is explained and some preliminary ideas suggested.
Journal ArticleDOI
Model Evaluation Guidelines for Systematic Quantification of Accuracy in Watershed Simulations
Daniel N. Moriasi,Jeffrey G. Arnold,M. W. Van Liew,Ronald L. Bingner,R. D. Harmel,Tamie L. Veith +5 more
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors present guidelines for watershed model evaluation based on the review results and project-specific considerations, including single-event simulation, quality and quantity of measured data, model calibration procedure, evaluation time step, and project scope and magnitude.
Journal ArticleDOI
Large Area Hydrologic Modeling and Assessment Part i: Model Development
TL;DR: A conceptual, continuous time model called SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) was developed to assist water resource managers in assessing the impact of management on water supplies and nonpoint source pollution in watersheds and large river basins as discussed by the authors.
Journal ArticleDOI
Climate Extremes: Observations, Modeling, and Impacts
David R. Easterling,Gerald A. Meehl,Camille Parmesan,Stanley A. Changnon,Thomas R. Karl,Linda O. Mearns +5 more
TL;DR: Results of observational studies suggest that in many areas that have been analyzed, changes in total precipitation are amplified at the tails, and changes in some temperature extremes have been observed.
Journal ArticleDOI
Global Water Resources: Vulnerability from Climate Change and Population Growth
TL;DR: Numerical experiments combining climate model outputs, water budgets, and socioeconomic information along digitized river networks demonstrate that (i) a large proportion of the world's population is currently experiencing water stress and (ii) rising water demands greatly outweigh greenhouse warming in defining the state of global water systems to 2025.
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