Can Reanalysis Have Anthropogenic Climate Trends without Model Forcing
Ming Cai,Eugenia Kalnay +1 more
TLDR
In this article, a reanalysis made with a frozen model can detect the warming trend due to an increase of greenhouse gases within the atmosphere at its full strength after a short transient (less than 100 analysis cycles).Abstract:
This paper shows analytically that a reanalysis made with a frozen model can detect the warming trend due to an increase of greenhouse gases within the atmosphere at its full strength (at least 95% level) after a short transient (less than 100 analysis cycles). The analytical proof is obtained by taking into consideration the following three possible deficiencies in the model used to create first-guess fields: (i) the physical processes responsible for the observed trend (e.g., an increase of greenhouse gases) are completely absent from the model, (ii) the first-guess fields are affected by an initial drift caused by the imbalance between the model equilibrium and the analysis that contains trends due to the observations, and (iii) the model used in the reanalysis has a constant model bias. The imbalance contributes to a systematic reduction in the reanalysis trend compared to the observations. The analytic derivation herein shows that this systematic reduction can be very small (less than 5%) wh...read more
Citations
More filters
Journal ArticleDOI
An overview of regional land-use and land-cover impacts on rainfall
Roger A. Pielke,Jimmy O. Adegoke,Adriana Beltrán-Przekurat,C. A. Hiemstra,John C. Lin,Udaysankar S. Nair,Dev Niyogi,T. E. Nobis +7 more
TL;DR: In this paper, the diverse role of land-use/land-cover change on precipitation has been investigated and it has been shown that land conversion continues at a rapid pace, this type of human disturbance of the climate system will continue and become even more significant in the coming decades.
Journal ArticleDOI
Unresolved issues with the assessment of multidecadal global land surface temperature trends
Roger A. Pielke,Christopher A. Davey,Dev Niyogi,Souleymane Fall,Jesse Steinweg-Woods,Kenneth G. Hubbard,Xiaomao Lin,Ming Cai,Young-Kwon Lim,Hong Li,John W. Nielsen-Gammon,Kevin P. Gallo,Robert Hale,Rezaul Mahmood,Stuart A. Foster,Richard T. McNider,Peter D. Blanken +16 more
TL;DR: In this paper, a series of examples ranging from errors caused by temperature measurements at a monitoring station to the undocumented biases in the regionally and globally averaged time series are provided, which relate to micrometeorological impacts due to warm bias in nighttime minimum temperatures, poor siting of the instrumentation, effect of winds as well as surface atmospheric water vapor content on temperature trends, quantification of uncertainties in the homogenization of surface temperature data, and the influence of land use/land cover (LULC) change on surface temperature trends.
Journal ArticleDOI
Observational evidence of sensitivity of surface climate changes to land types and urbanization
TL;DR: In this article, the sensitivity of surface climate change to land types is investigated for the Northern Hemisphere by subtracting the reanalysis from the observed surface temperature (OMR) using a regression model, showing that while reanalysis represents the large-scale climate changes due to greenhouse gases and atmospheric circulation, it is less sensitive to regional surface processes associated with land types.
Journal ArticleDOI
Documentation of uncertainties and biases associated with surface temperature measurement sites for climate change assessment
Roger A. Pielke,John W. Nielsen-Gammon,Christopher A. Davey,James R. Angel,Odie Bliss,Nolan J. Doesken,Ming Cai,Souleymane Fall,Dev Niyogi,Kevin P. Gallo,Robert Hale,Kenneth G. Hubbard,Xiaomao Lin,Hong Li,Sethu Raman +14 more
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors determine whether poorly sited long-term surface temperature monitoring sites have been adjusted in order to provide spatially representative independent data for use in regional and global surface temperature analyses.
Journal ArticleDOI
Review of recent studies of the climatic effects of urbanization in China
TL;DR: In this article, the effects of urbanization on local climate trends have been re-estimated based on homogenized observations and using improved methods, and the effect of urbanisation on the observed warming trend of local surface air temperatures during the last few decades is determined as being about 20% at urban stations such as the Beijing Observatory.
References
More filters
Journal ArticleDOI
The NCEP/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project
Eugenia Kalnay,Masao Kanamitsu,Robert Kistler,William D. Collins,D.G. Deaven,L. S. Gandin,M. Iredell,Suranjana Saha,Glenn H. White,John S. Woollen,Yuejian Zhu,Muthuvel Chelliah,Wesley Ebisuzaki,Wayne Higgins,John E. Janowiak,Kingtse C. Mo,Chester F. Ropelewski,Julian X. L. Wang,Ants Leetmaa,Richard W. Reynolds,Roy L. Jenne,Dennis Joseph +21 more
TL;DR: The NCEP/NCAR 40-yr reanalysis uses a frozen state-of-the-art global data assimilation system and a database as complete as possible, except that the horizontal resolution is T62 (about 210 km) as discussed by the authors.
Journal ArticleDOI
NCEP–DOE AMIP-II Reanalysis (R-2)
Masao Kanamitsu,Wesley Ebisuzaki,John S. Woollen,Shi-Keng Yang,J. J. Hnilo,M. Fiorino,Gerald L. Potter +6 more
TL;DR: The NCEP-DOE Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP-II) reanalysis is a follow-on project to the "50-year" (1948-present) N CEP-NCAR Reanalysis Project.
Journal ArticleDOI
The NCEP–NCAR 50-Year Reanalysis: Monthly Means CD-ROM and Documentation
Robert Kistler,Eugenia Kalnay,William D. Collins,Suranjana Saha,Glenn H. White,John S. Woollen,Muthuvel Chelliah,Wesley Ebisuzaki,Masao Kanamitsu,Vernon E. Kousky,Huug van den Dool,Roy L. Jenne,M. Fiorino +12 more
TL;DR: The National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) have cooperated in a project to produce a retroactive record of more than 50 years of global analyses of atmospheric fields in support of the needs of the research and climate monitoring communities as mentioned in this paper.
Book
Atmospheric Modeling, Data Assimilation and Predictability
TL;DR: A comprehensive text and reference work on numerical weather prediction, first published in 2002, covers not only methods for numerical modeling, but also the important related areas of data assimilation and predictability.
Journal ArticleDOI
Impact of urbanization and land-use change on climate
Eugenia Kalnay,Ming Cai +1 more
TL;DR: The difference between trends in observed surface temperatures in the continental United States and the corresponding trends in a reconstruction of surface temperatures determined from a reanalysis of global weather over the past 50 years is used to estimate the impact of land-use changes on surface warming.
Related Papers (5)
The NCEP/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project
Eugenia Kalnay,Masao Kanamitsu,Robert Kistler,William D. Collins,D.G. Deaven,L. S. Gandin,M. Iredell,Suranjana Saha,Glenn H. White,John S. Woollen,Yuejian Zhu,Muthuvel Chelliah,Wesley Ebisuzaki,Wayne Higgins,John E. Janowiak,Kingtse C. Mo,Chester F. Ropelewski,Julian X. L. Wang,Ants Leetmaa,Richard W. Reynolds,Roy L. Jenne,Dennis Joseph +21 more