Journal ArticleDOI
Graph Model for Probabilistic Resilience and Recovery Planning of Multi-Infrastructure Systems
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In this article, a graph model coupled with a maximum entropy likelihood estimator is proposed to map complex interactions and assess the statistics resulting from different initiating scenarios to assess indirect consequence in operational loss terms and to assess the merits of risk treatment options.Abstract:
Indirect consequences to shocks and stresses are mounting globally. Estimating and developing plans to treat these risks remains a challenge. The difficulty is determining ahead of time how the losses, and the potential resolutions, might propagate through the interactions of complex connected systems of systems when generally only high-level temporal statistics are available. In this paper, a novel graph model coupled with a maximum entropy likelihood estimator are proposed to map the complex interactions and to assess the statistics resulting from different initiating scenarios. The method involves defining initial conditions from all-hazards effects, followed by generation of event sequences from the high-level statistics, to estimate probabilities of different outcomes after a shock or stress. In this way, a general method is devised to assess indirect consequence in operational loss terms and to assess the merits of risk treatment options. Incorporating these indirect consequence calculations...read more
Citations
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Framework for improving the resilience and recovery of transportation networks under geohazard risks
Nazli Yonca Aydin,H. Sebnem Duzgun,Hans Rudolf Heinimann,Friedemann Wenzel,Kaushal Raj Gnyawali +4 more
TL;DR: In insight into the recovery process, the proposed approach provides information about the recovery behavior of road networks and simplifies the evaluation process, and is robust enough to extend and assess decision-makers’ preferences for improving resilience.
Journal ArticleDOI
Assessment of Critical Infrastructure Resilience to Flooding Using a Response Curve Approach
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors proposed an expected annual disruption (EADIS) metric and curve of disruption versus likelihood to quantify the resilience of critical infrastructure (CI) to flooding.
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The weight of islands: Leveraging Grenada's material stocks to adapt to climate change
TL;DR: In this paper, a bottom-up approach based on a geographic information system (GIS) is used to calculate the total MS of aggregate, timber, concrete, and steel in buildings.
Journal ArticleDOI
Model-free reinforcement learning with model-based safe exploration: Optimizing adaptive recovery process of infrastructure systems
Milad Memarzadeh,Matteo Pozzi +1 more
TL;DR: A model-free reinforcement learning approach with addition of a model-based safe exploration for near-optimal management of infrastructure system pre-event and their recovery post-event is proposed.
Journal ArticleDOI
Robustness assessment of Hetero-functional graph theory based model of interdependent urban utility networks
TL;DR: In this paper, a weighted Hetero-functional graph theory (HFGT) based modeling framework is proposed to assess the robustness of interdependent networks against complete/partial and random/targeted attacks, and several robustness metrics are used to provide a comprehensive evaluation of system robustness.
References
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Journal ArticleDOI
Information Theory and Statistical Mechanics. II
TL;DR: In this article, the authors consider statistical mechanics as a form of statistical inference rather than as a physical theory, and show that the usual computational rules, starting with the determination of the partition function, are an immediate consequence of the maximum-entropy principle.
Journal ArticleDOI
A Framework to Quantitatively Assess and Enhance the Seismic Resilience of Communities
Michel Bruneau,Stephanie E. Chang,Ronald T. Eguchi,George C. Lee,Thomas D. O'Rourke,Andrei M. Reinhorn,Masanobu Shinozuka,Kathleen J. Tierney,William A. Wallace,Detlof von Winterfeldt +9 more
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present a conceptual framework to define seismic resilience of communities and quantitative measures of resilience that can be useful for a coordinated research effort focusing on enhancing this resilience.
Journal ArticleDOI
On The Quantitative Definition of Risk
Stanley Kaplan,B. John Garrick +1 more
TL;DR: In this article, a quantitative definition of risk is suggested in terms of the idea of a "set of triplets" and extended to include uncertainty and completeness, and the use of Bayes' theorem is described in this connection.
Journal ArticleDOI
A three-stage resilience analysis framework for urban infrastructure systems
TL;DR: In this paper, a multi-stage framework is proposed to analyze infrastructure resilience and a series of resilience-based improvement strategies are highlighted and appropriate correlates of resilience identified, to then be combined for establishing an expected annual resilience metric adequate for both single hazards and concurrent multiple hazards types.
Journal ArticleDOI
Changing the resilience paradigm
Igor Linkov,Todd S. Bridges,Felix Creutzig,Jennifer Decker,Cate Fox-Lent,Wolfgang Kröger,James H. Lambert,Anders Levermann,Benoit Montreuil,Jatin Nathwani,Raymond Nyer,Ortwin Renn,Benjamin Scharte,Alexander Scheffler,Miranda A. Schreurs,Thomas Thiel-Clemen +15 more
TL;DR: Resilience management goes beyond risk management to address the complexities of large integrated systems and the uncertainty of future threats, especially those associated with climate change as mentioned in this paper, which is a common theme in our work.